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U.S. coronavirus death toll hits 170,000 ahead of fall flu season


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Posted
3 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

Here's another effect of the lockdowns:

 

"Recent modelling by UNAIDS and the World Health Organization has predicted that there could be 500,000 extra AIDS-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020-2021 if the COVID-19 crisis leads to a six-month disruption in vital supplies of antiretroviral medication."

 

https://frontlineaids.org/were-on-the-frontline-of/coronavirus-covid-19-impact-hiv/

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/06-07-2020-who-access-to-hiv-medicines-severely-impacted-by-covid-19-as-aids-response-stalls

 

 

 

As it seems the same retroviral medication may be effective for HIV and covid-19, it is likely that supply will be channelled to developed countries and that people living in poor developing countries will be screwed as usual.

  • Like 1
Posted
10 minutes ago, candide said:

You can find the excess death numbers here (as of July 13th). UK 65,700.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

 

As for the argument that people who did not die  before will die later:

- not all of them because of network effect pattern. Because of herd immunity (if confirmed) of part of the population, the next wave will not enjoy the same speed and extent

- when lockdown were decided, very little was known about this virus, how to treat it, etc... infrastructures and supplies were also not available (except for a few countries such as Germany). Under such conditions, delaying until more knowledge and supplies is accumulated was a smart tactic.

 

I’ve been using this link https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

 

which shows only date for England and Wales - with 53,000 excess deaths, the number has dropped over the past 7 weeks (the deaths for each of the last 7 weeks is below the 5 year average). 

 

 

I also agree that the initial lockdown tactic was valid. I believe we were slow to react, we (the world) should have locked down earlier to this ‘novel Coronavirus’ - A NEW Coronavirus, relatively fresh of the back of SARS-CoV-1 (±10% CFR) and MERS (±30% CFR), early on was time to get very worried, the models were frightening - ensuring the health services would not become overwhelmed was the right move. 

 

However as more became known and fatality rates established it was knows that this was not a major SARS or MERS, the fatality rates were much lower, lower than 1% it seems and perhaps closer to seasonal Influenza; something we’d only know with full antibody testing (to check who’s had Covid-19) - I’m wondering why countries are locked down. 

 

But, ultimately, I’m wondering if the numbers have not become politicised. The medical debacle and falsifying numbers in the US. The Died ‘with’ Covid-19 and not died ‘because of’ Covid-19 (those decapitated in car accidents who also had Covid-19 and thus were registered as dying ‘with’ (a satyrical point). 

 

Thus: the 170,000 deaths in the US, are they really Covid-19 deaths? or mostly regular numbers, given that 2.8million people die each year anyway - the number is about 6% of the yearly average.

 

The UK excess deaths are 16% more than the 5 year average...  thats alarming. 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

I’ve been using this link https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

 

which shows only date for England and Wales - with 53,000 excess deaths, the number has dropped over the past 7 weeks (the deaths for each of the last 7 weeks is below the 5 year average). 

 

 

I also agree that the initial lockdown tactic was valid. I believe we were slow to react, we (the world) should have locked down earlier to this ‘novel Coronavirus’ - A NEW Coronavirus, relatively fresh of the back of SARS-CoV-1 (±10% CFR) and MERS (±30% CFR), early on was time to get very worried, the models were frightening - ensuring the health services would not become overwhelmed was the right move. 

 

However as more became known and fatality rates established it was knows that this was not a major SARS or MERS, the fatality rates were much lower, lower than 1% it seems and perhaps closer to seasonal Influenza; something we’d only know with full antibody testing (to check who’s had Covid-19) - I’m wondering why countries are locked down. 

 

But, ultimately, I’m wondering if the numbers have not become politicised. The medical debacle and falsifying numbers in the US. The Died ‘with’ Covid-19 and not died ‘because of’ Covid-19 (those decapitated in car accidents who also had Covid-19 and thus were registered as dying ‘with’ (a satyrical point). 

 

Thus: the 170,000 deaths in the US, are they really Covid-19 deaths? or mostly regular numbers, given that 2.8million people die each year anyway - the number is about 6% of the yearly average.

 

The UK excess deaths are 16% more than the 5 year average...  thats alarming. 

 

 

 

 

 

From the same source (FT), US excess death number was 149,000 as of July 13th, while the covid death count was 135,000.

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

<snipped>

But, ultimately, I’m wondering if the numbers have not become politicised. The medical debacle and falsifying numbers in the US. The Died ‘with’ Covid-19 and not died ‘because of’ Covid-19 (those decapitated in car accidents who also had Covid-19 and thus were registered as dying ‘with’ (a satyrical point). 

 

Thus: the 170,000 deaths in the US, are they really Covid-19 deaths? or mostly regular numbers, given that 2.8million people die each year anyway - the number is about 6% of the yearly average.

 

The UK excess deaths are 16% more than the 5 year average...  thats alarming. 

 

In the US, early on in the Pandemic, all deaths from a covid positive person were counted as a covid death.   It was important to keep track of the number of positive cases.   The number of deaths who 'died with covid' rather than 'of covid' are small.  

State public health officials some time ago revised that method of counting and no longer count those who died 'with covid'.   The numbers are minor.   For example, out of the 1, 847 deaths, 7 were people who died 'with Covid' but clearly were not due to Covid, in Washington State.  3 were homicides, 2 were suicides, 2 were drug overdoses.  The numbers were adjusted downward.  

I watch the daily rate in a number of places and if you see the number from the day before and the new number of deaths, it often does not add up.   This is due to continuing adjustment of numbers.   The deaths are added back into the date the actual death occurred.  
 

  • Like 2
Posted
23 hours ago, webfact said:

Months into the pandemic, the U.S. economic recovery from the recession triggered by the outbreak is still staggered

errr, no, the pandemic didnt trigger the recession, twas the politicians shut down that did that, and recovery of economy isnt going to happen until politicians stop interfering

 

Posted

Covid, Sars, mers, and Ebola. Do any of these viruses, have effective vaccines?    Do any of you want to get any of them?  Oh if you are old, well you are going to die anyway, according to some poster, so it does not matter to them, I guess they do not have any old parents or relatives that they want around for more than a few years.  I have seen that younger people are getting infected with covid, and some of them are also dying. I do hope a vaccine is available soon for covid. That may help if I get to close to some younger infected person, who thinks, well he is old and will likely die sometime anyway.

Geezer

Posted

No problem, Dr. MyPillow.Com Guy tells trump that Oleandrin is an effective cure. A cure for what exactly" Living? Oh well, what do you have to lose, said someone.

 

Let's remember to factor in those deaths too?

 

Trump eyes new unproven coronavirus "cure"

 

To the alarm of some government health officials, President Trump has expressed enthusiasm for the Food and Drug Administration to permit an extract from the oleander plant to be marketed as a dietary supplement or, alternatively, approved as a drug to cure COVID-19, despite lack of proof that it works.

 

Driving the news: The experimental botanical extract, oleandrin, was promoted to Trump during an Oval Office meeting in July. It's embraced by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and MyPillow founder and CEO Mike Lindell, a big Trump backer, who recently took a financial stake in the company that develops the product.

 

https://www.axios.com/trump-covid-oleandrin-9896f570-6cd8-4919-af3a-65ebad113d41.html

  • Like 1
Posted
On 8/16/2020 at 9:21 PM, Pattaya Spotter said:

But how many of these people would be dead anyway from non-Covid related reasons because of old age or other serious underlying health conditions?

Irrelevant and deflective, this is an infectious disease and their is no rationalizing the lack of American response with "what ifs" and "it would have happened eventually anyways". 

Posted
On 8/17/2020 at 6:51 AM, Tug said:

It’s a horrific statistic it’s twice the number of marines and army personnel killed in the pacific theater during ww2 plus the total killed serving in the 8th Air Force (26,000) thrown in and you would still come up 12,000 short of that total in 6 months of mismanagement under this administration that’s horrific 

what gets me is there are some on this site that want Thailand to open up and expose itself to the probability of this, you would think in this day and age most folks could read. There are now signs that this is slowly being turned around, that infection rates are starting to drop. Lets hope that individual state leaders can keep the transmission rates down to levels where tracking and tracing can be effective. Until the vaccine is readily available everybody has to start looking out for others which up till now has really been lacking..

Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

what gets me is there are some on this site that want Thailand to open up and expose itself to the probability of this, you would think in this day and age most folks could read. There are now signs that this is slowly being turned around, that infection rates are starting to drop. Lets hope that individual state leaders can keep the transmission rates down to levels where tracking and tracing can be effective. Until the vaccine is readily available everybody has to start looking out for others which up till now has really been lacking..

I am one of those.

We haven’t closed down in the past due to a flu Epidemic / Pandemic. 

We panicked this time around, and rightly so because a new; Novel Corona, virus was spreading. After the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS outbreaks with 10% and 30% case fatality rates there was great concern that this virus could have a devastating impact - the models showed a devastating potential. 

 

There were great fears the health services would be overwhelmed and people would die because they could not access medical care. Lockdown and isolation methods were employed to ‘flatten the curve’. this is how lock down was ‘marketed’ / Presented to us. 

 

Following a month or so of lockdown it became quite apparent that the case fatality rates were not as devastating as previously modelled, however, the politics of an outbreak stated to take priority over the wellbeing of the globe, specifically the global economy. 

 

It is argued that Covid-19 fatality rates are similar to influenza, and most certainly below 0.5%, still alarming and worrisome but perhaps closer to 0.1%, we can only know this with antibody testing to see how many of us have been exposed and contracted Covid-19 without anyone knowing or how many of us have immunity in the first place. 

 

The high numbers in countries such as the US highlight a couple of factors - the medicare scandal (hospitals with Covid-19 patents get greater funding - a patient who shows Covid-19 symptoms can be registered as a Covid-19 patient. Patient A turns up at a hospital with a headache = Covid-19 symptoms, he dies later of an aneurysm, he’s registered as dying ‘with’ Covid-19) - The results may be artificially high - but still high nonetheless. 

 

Dying ‘with’ Covid-19 is extremely controversial IMO and does not allow for accurate measurement of the true Covid-19 numbers. Neither does ’not testing’ for Antibodies. Perhaps not enough priority has been placed on antibody testing such that its still not accurate. 

 

Is there a different strain passing through Europe and America? has south East Asia avoided this strain? Or are south East Asians in general genetically more capable to handle this virus? 

Has the Flu Vaccine somehow placed some at greater risk of respiratory complications from Covid-19? (that doesn’t seem logical). 

 

Do the governments want to know how much of their population have been exposed to Covid-19 already? I think not, as the danger there is a nation who has been locked down for 5 months finding out that Covid-19 had already swept through their nation. A death knell to any government in power.

 

Covid-19 could well have swept through Thailand in November, December, January and February. Viral Pneumonia cases showed a dramatic increase over that period then at the beginning of March the EU started to panic, Thailand followed suit, started reporting its numbers as Covid-19, back tracked ’some of’ the viral pneumonia cases as Covid-19 (but no where near as high as the Viral Pneumonia cases) - Ministry of Public Health reports (online) were changed, the Viral Pneumonia case data available then (in March) is no longer available.

 

The big question for Thailand is: ]

- Has Covid-19 already swept the nation?

- Does the nation (in aggregate) have any degree of immunity?

- IF Covid-19 has not swept through and there is no immunity, is Thailand simply delaying the inevitable? 

 

 

Finally, to deal with your point directly [from the home of cc]: Now that the Virus is ‘under control’ in Thailand the priority seems to be keeping Thailand a zero case country, but for how long is this sustainable? Other countries such as NZ and Austrailia have had outbreaks and further isolation has been instigated. 

How long is this cycle to last? would there be continued lockdown (no incoming flights) for the next 10 years and quarantine for any visitor? that would keep Thailand water tight, but at what cost?

Or, will a vaccine be effective? reliable, safe?

 

This begs the question: Has Sweden got it right? have they created herd immunity?

Is herd immunity inevitable no matter what we do?, the only question is how long it takes to create this herd immunity and how much time and at what cost to the economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by richard_smith237
Posted
On 8/18/2020 at 5:54 AM, heybruce said:

Covid 19 has already killed about five times as many people in the US as an average flu season would (taking the average of the 2010 to 2017 numbers).   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_influenza_statistics_by_flu_season

 

There are also indications of long term affects of the disease even among those with mild symptoms.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/#4f0bc59d5979

 

Covid 19 isn't as lethal as SARS and MERS, but it is much more contagious.  And it is much worse than a typical flu.

And it's important to keep in mind that no lockdowns or other special precautions were in place when influenza hit. So comparing the number of deaths from the flu to those of covid is invalid. Had no restrictions been put in place there would have been many times the fatalities. 

  • Like 1
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Posted
8 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

I am one of those.

We haven’t closed down in the past due to a flu Epidemic / Pandemic. 

We panicked this time around, and rightly so because a new; Novel Corona, virus was spreading. After the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS outbreaks with 10% and 30% case fatality rates there was great concern that this virus could have a devastating impact - the models showed a devastating potential. 

 

There were great fears the health services would be overwhelmed and people would die because they could not access medical care. Lockdown and isolation methods were employed to ‘flatten the curve’. this is how lock down was ‘marketed’ / Presented to us. 

 

Following a month or so of lockdown it became quite apparent that the case fatality rates were not as devastating as previously modelled, however, the politics of an outbreak stated to take priority over the wellbeing of the globe, specifically the global economy. 

 

It is argued that Covid-19 fatality rates are similar to influenza, and most certainly below 0.5%, still alarming and worrisome but perhaps closer to 0.1%, we can only know this with antibody testing to see how many of us have been exposed and contracted Covid-19 without anyone knowing or how many of us have immunity in the first place. 

 

The high numbers in countries such as the US highlight a couple of factors - the medicare scandal (hospitals with Covid-19 patents get greater funding - a patient who shows Covid-19 symptoms can be registered as a Covid-19 patient. Patient A turns up at a hospital with a headache = Covid-19 symptoms, he dies later of an aneurysm, he’s registered as dying ‘with’ Covid-19) - The results may be artificially high - but still high nonetheless. 

 

Dying ‘with’ Covid-19 is extremely controversial IMO and does not allow for accurate measurement of the true Covid-19 numbers. Neither does ’not testing’ for Antibodies. Perhaps not enough priority has been placed on antibody testing such that its still not accurate. 

 

Is there a different strain passing through Europe and America? has south East Asia avoided this strain? Or are south East Asians in general genetically more capable to handle this virus? 

Has the Flu Vaccine somehow placed some at greater risk of respiratory complications from Covid-19? (that doesn’t seem logical). 

 

Do the governments want to know how much of their population have been exposed to Covid-19 already? I think not, as the danger there is a nation who has been locked down for 5 months finding out that Covid-19 had already swept through their nation. A death knell to any government in power.

 

Covid-19 could well have swept through Thailand in November, December, January and February. Viral Pneumonia cases showed a dramatic increase over that period then at the beginning of March the EU started to panic, Thailand followed suit, started reporting its numbers as Covid-19, back tracked ’some of’ the viral pneumonia cases as Covid-19 (but no where near as high as the Viral Pneumonia cases) - Ministry of Public Health reports (online) were changed, the Viral Pneumonia case data available then (in March) is no longer available.

 

The big question for Thailand is: ]

- Has Covid-19 already swept the nation?

- Does the nation (in aggregate) have any degree of immunity?

- IF Covid-19 has not swept through and there is no immunity, is Thailand simply delaying the inevitable? 

 

 

Finally, to deal with your point directly [from the home of cc]: Now that the Virus is ‘under control’ in Thailand the priority seems to be keeping Thailand a zero case country, but for how long is this sustainable? Other countries such as NZ and Austrailia have had outbreaks and further isolation has been instigated. 

How long is this cycle to last? would there be continued lockdown (no incoming flights) for the next 10 years and quarantine for any visitor? that would keep Thailand water tight, but at what cost?

Or, will a vaccine be effective? reliable, safe?

 

This begs the question: Has Sweden got it right? have they created herd immunity?

Is herd immunity inevitable no matter what we do?, the only question is how long it takes to create this herd immunity and how much time and at what cost to the economy.

 

 10 years? nah, either a vaccine or a reliable therapeutic will be along within a few years or so. Since the majority of world leaders don't agree with the above theories we fortunately will not have to sacrifice more lives in the grand experiment to keep making money during a health emergency.  And there will be some countries who have already rammed their head into a wall repeatedly, and didn't learn, will continue to sacrifice their citizenry while the world watches..

Posted
On 8/20/2020 at 12:19 PM, richard_smith237 said:

I am one of those.

We haven’t closed down in the past due to a flu Epidemic / Pandemic. 

We panicked this time around, and rightly so because a new; Novel Corona, virus was spreading. After the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS outbreaks with 10% and 30% case fatality rates there was great concern that this virus could have a devastating impact - the models showed a devastating potential. 

 

There were great fears the health services would be overwhelmed and people would die because they could not access medical care. Lockdown and isolation methods were employed to ‘flatten the curve’. this is how lock down was ‘marketed’ / Presented to us. 

 

Following a month or so of lockdown it became quite apparent that the case fatality rates were not as devastating as previously modelled, however, the politics of an outbreak stated to take priority over the wellbeing of the globe, specifically the global economy. 

 

It is argued that Covid-19 fatality rates are similar to influenza, and most certainly below 0.5%, still alarming and worrisome but perhaps closer to 0.1%, we can only know this with antibody testing to see how many of us have been exposed and contracted Covid-19 without anyone knowing or how many of us have immunity in the first place. 

 

The high numbers in countries such as the US highlight a couple of factors - the medicare scandal (hospitals with Covid-19 patents get greater funding - a patient who shows Covid-19 symptoms can be registered as a Covid-19 patient. Patient A turns up at a hospital with a headache = Covid-19 symptoms, he dies later of an aneurysm, he’s registered as dying ‘with’ Covid-19) - The results may be artificially high - but still high nonetheless. 

 

Dying ‘with’ Covid-19 is extremely controversial IMO and does not allow for accurate measurement of the true Covid-19 numbers. Neither does ’not testing’ for Antibodies. Perhaps not enough priority has been placed on antibody testing such that its still not accurate. 

 

Is there a different strain passing through Europe and America? has south East Asia avoided this strain? Or are south East Asians in general genetically more capable to handle this virus? 

Has the Flu Vaccine somehow placed some at greater risk of respiratory complications from Covid-19? (that doesn’t seem logical). 

 

Do the governments want to know how much of their population have been exposed to Covid-19 already? I think not, as the danger there is a nation who has been locked down for 5 months finding out that Covid-19 had already swept through their nation. A death knell to any government in power.

 

Covid-19 could well have swept through Thailand in November, December, January and February. Viral Pneumonia cases showed a dramatic increase over that period then at the beginning of March the EU started to panic, Thailand followed suit, started reporting its numbers as Covid-19, back tracked ’some of’ the viral pneumonia cases as Covid-19 (but no where near as high as the Viral Pneumonia cases) - Ministry of Public Health reports (online) were changed, the Viral Pneumonia case data available then (in March) is no longer available.

 

The big question for Thailand is: ]

- Has Covid-19 already swept the nation?

- Does the nation (in aggregate) have any degree of immunity?

- IF Covid-19 has not swept through and there is no immunity, is Thailand simply delaying the inevitable? 

 

 

Finally, to deal with your point directly [from the home of cc]: Now that the Virus is ‘under control’ in Thailand the priority seems to be keeping Thailand a zero case country, but for how long is this sustainable? Other countries such as NZ and Austrailia have had outbreaks and further isolation has been instigated. 

How long is this cycle to last? would there be continued lockdown (no incoming flights) for the next 10 years and quarantine for any visitor? that would keep Thailand water tight, but at what cost?

Or, will a vaccine be effective? reliable, safe?

 

This begs the question: Has Sweden got it right? have they created herd immunity?

Is herd immunity inevitable no matter what we do?, the only question is how long it takes to create this herd immunity and how much time and at what cost to the economy.

 

sounds like a great plan if you're an embalmer by trade..

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/sweden-records-highest-death-tally-in-150-years-in-first-six-months-of-2020/wcm/bccb5aa9-8896-4ee5-9d28-862c399e8aba/

 

On 8/20/2020 at 12:19 PM, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, from the home of CC said:

sounds like a great plan if you're an embalmer by trade..

 

Yep.

 

I think herders are much more dangerous than hoaxers, but they're both nuttier than a squirrel turd. Herders can earn my respect by searching out a way to become infected, and then infecting all their friends and family.

 

 

Given the long term effects for survivors maybe dialysis companies (Fersinius, DaVita) would be a good play too?

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

 

Yep.

 

I think herders are much more dangerous than hoaxers, but they're both nuttier than a squirrel turd. Herders can earn my respect by searching out a way to become infected, and then infecting all their friends and family.

 

 

Given the long term effects for survivors maybe dialysis companies (Fersinius, DaVita) would be a good play too?

 

 

yes I'm surprised they're not herders on you tube having contests on who can lick the most escalator railings in malls..

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