Resumption of International Flights

[Guderian]

I know of at least one large, tourist-dependent business that's shut up shop until the end of the year, they don't seem to think there will be any foreign tourists allowed in this side of Christmas anyway.

[sandyf]

7 hours ago, thedemon said:

 

Seems to me the op is trying to suggest there is a conspiracy whereby the government won't open the borders until THAI airways is ready to fly again.

 

That is even though THAI have continued operating cargo and repatriation flights all along. Since their base is Thailand it isn't going to be viable to restart scheduled flights until there is enough 2 way traffic and that isn't going to happen until entry restrictions are eased.

Quite, you can't go by anything that Thai Airways are doing. A couple of weeks ago they cancelled our flight from Krabi to Bangkok next week, why do that when the government are offering discount airfares in their travel promotion.

The company is in administration and the administrators have a duty to try and make operations profitable, hence a significant amount of rescheduling. 

[steven100]

14 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Tourists are not flying out of their home countries because they must usually self isolate  at destination and when they return.

bingo  !    and until they approve a reliable vaccine, and cancel all quarantine requirements both here and home countries, folks are not going on any holiday that's for sure. 

[ronaldo0]

March/April was time frame a guy I know in uk was told by Thai embassy to get back to Thailand.

[itsallmine68]

Go back to bed

 

[malibukid]

not until a vaccine is found

[Dexxter]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

And God forbid after seeing the great destruction they have caused and the total world economy collapse the Chinese release covid 20

This is why I think this will never end. The world is a different place now thanks to the insane overreaction to this virus. I am currently in lockdown with an 8pm to 5am curfew. 5 million people in my city are hugely affected by this lockdown even leading to suicides. The lockdown and curfew was supposed to end September 13th but another few dozen geriatrics in old people homes died (70-100 year olds) so the curfew has been extended another month. And when covid-19 is solved, the CCP will release their next version of the virus covid-20 or 21. Pure insanity!

[geisha]

Anyone can guess when Thailand will reopen the borders. The main airlines don’t have Bangkok on their list of destinations. Thailand will suffer immensely, it will be bankrupt by 2021.

other countries will  probably benefit. There are lots of international flights from EU. The Caribbean islands, Polynesia, most of Eu etc, yes, with restrictions, but not impossible. Yes, Covid infections have risen through the summer holiday months, millions have gone abroad. But, we have to live with this virus,  taking as much care as possible. Is this right or wrong, only the future will tell us, but people must get back to work, businesses must be saved, all governments are stretched to the limit. Here, all businesses get  government help to get them through the bad months, and people out of work get 80% of their wages. So , everyone that can, back to work, and get your local businesses all the help they need. Maybe the Thai government can get away with closing the country down, they don’t help their people like the West do.

[3NUMBAS]

they can resume flights but will there be many on board ?methinks few flyers for a long time due to lack of funds for most

[hotandsticky]

9 minutes ago, Dexxter said:

This is why I think this will never end. The world is a different place now thanks to the insane overreaction to this virus. I am currently in lockdown with an 8pm to 5am curfew. 5 million people in my city are hugely affected by this lockdown even leading to suicides. The lockdown and curfew was supposed to end September 13th but another few dozen geriatrics in old people homes died (70-100 year olds) so the curfew has been extended another month. And when covid-19 is solved, the CCP will release their next version of the virus covid-20 or 21. Pure insanity!

 

 

Where are you............................ Alcatraz?

 

[jdlancaster]

12 hours ago, oompie69 said:

If last year's US CDC stats, which are readily accessible on the Internet, are anything to go by, ("flu vaccine found to be effective in less that 50% of those who received it") then the chances of any vaccine under research and development now being more effective are very slim indeed. So, the argument that a vaccine is required first before the world can get back to normal in spurious. How governments are going to maneuver themselves out of the corner they have painted themselves into will make for interesting reading.

More interesting will be to what extent citizens are going to hold their public representative accountable for this mess. I think Trump is not resting easy on his throne, not that he should be the only one to blame.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6907a1.htm

From a public health perspective a vaccine effectiveness of about 50-60% does make a huge difference for covid-19.

 

The idea is to reach the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT). Most estimates have it at about 43-60% for covid-19. HIT= 1-(1/R0). R0 is basic reproduction rate. You can also lower the HIT a bit in models due to the most likely people to catch the disease being the first people infected.

 

Combining those that were already infected and have some immunity and people being vaccinated will be enough to confer herd immunity to the population. 

 

It doesn't mean individuals can't catch it, it means if an infected person enters the population the spread will be isolated and die out.

 

 

[hotandsticky]

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

I know of at least one large, tourist-dependent business that's shut up shop until the end of the year, they don't seem to think there will be any foreign tourists allowed in this side of Christmas anyway.

 

 

 

......... and I think that they are being optimistic with that indication.

[geisha]

11 hours ago, mike787 said:

2020 is a write off...NO tourist flights planned.  Hoping 2021 is better but very little optimism.  Covid has destroyed everything.

Only ruined for Thailand. I believe the rest of Asia will open this autumn. Plenty of International flights in Europe , lots of countries you can visit.

just not Thailand.

[Max69xl]

16 hours ago, oompie69 said:

As International flights are not allowed to disembark passengers at any Thailand airport, those flights will not be normal international flights.  Probably repatriation or cargo flights, which are not available to everyone.  Unless, of course, geriatrickkid is privy to information not available to the other members of TVF. If so, please share. 

The point of this thread was to get a discussion going as to whether members thought that normal airline traffic would resume before the (unnamed) airline mentioned in the original post started flying internationally again.

It's not only tourists that want to get in. TVF posts have contained stories of various long-stay expats desperate to get back to their, businesses, homes and loved ones. I venture this is a number far bigger than the numbers mentioned by the previous poster.  

 

Is there a question somewhere in your post? No one knows when there will be any inbound commercial flights. Don't even think about Thai Airways. They went to Bankruptcy Court yesterday and there will be 2 more hearings next week. TAT is still talking about those silly travel bubbles, which imo is a joke. So, if you can't get on any repatriation flights, then forget about coming here. Sit tight and wait a few months. 

[madmen]

So many posters have a friend of friend of a friend with insider connections of no flights until (insert random number of years here) 

With so many wild guesses its proof those type of posts are useless 

Keep an eye on bordering countries, when one starts allowing in tourists they all will 

[Max69xl]

3 minutes ago, madmen said:

So many posters have a friend of friend of a friend with insider connections of no flights until (insert random number of years here) 

With so many wild guesses its proof those type of posts are useless 

Keep an eye on bordering countries, when one starts allowing in tourists they all will 

Even if they might let people in, with what kind of restrictions? I doubt they will just welcome tourists with open arms.

[Peterphuket]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

If that date held true, then Thailand is in for a whole world of financial pain. I believe a lot of business are using up their savings and bank loans to get through to high season and chinese new year - if they are not open by then, I can see 33% of all tourist based businesses gone  by end 2021. Thailand I think cannot cope with a 25%-30% gdp drop and get out of it in months after.

 

Airlines will be pushing way before then as they will go broke long before another 14 months of inactivity. 14 months more of job losses, redundancies and homelessness will push the world to near financial destruction.

 

And God forbid after seeing the great destruction they have caused and the total world economy collapse the Chinese release covid 20

We understand,....... now the government.

[oompie69]

10 hours ago, sezze said:

Basically the OP question is pointless . You want us to gamble on a date , in a international context , because not Thailand alone is involved . I will tell you the exact date ... 31 November at 23:59:99 ( ????) . All jokes aside , there is no answer at close sight , in Thailand as well as international . In Europe , there is travel , with regulations from region to region , changing on daily basis . Forget travel outside of Europe , not even any mentioning about it to be able to do soon . In Thailand it is even worse , but expect this year to open for travellers from close by countries , like China , Cambodia , Vietnam , Laos ... Further away , who knows ... not even politicians know , so asking us is looking in a crystal ball and for the moment it is nothing more then a piece of glass .

My bad! Having been following the posts on TVF for a number of years, I was under the,obviously misguided, impression, that there was a wealth of expert opinion to be found here on any topic under the sun. And that quite a few members had crystal balls that actually worked(no pun intended). Of course my post was pointless. 

As to when normal air traffic will presume, your guess is as good as that of anybody else, nobody knows.

[oompie69]

34 minutes ago, madmen said:

So many posters have a friend of friend of a friend with insider connections of no flights until (insert random number of years here) 

With so many wild guesses its proof those type of posts are useless 

Keep an eye on bordering countries, when one starts allowing in tourists they all will 

Glad you got it!

[Max69xl]

18 minutes ago, oompie69 said:

My bad! Having been following the posts on TVF for a number of years, I was under the,obviously misguided, impression, that there was a wealth of expert opinion to be found here on any topic under the sun. And that quite a few members had crystal balls that actually worked(no pun intended). Of course my post was pointless. 

As to when normal air traffic will presume, your guess is as good as that of anybody else, nobody knows.

Why do you think anyone at a forum online would have an answer to your questions when no one in the country has a clue??  Do you want posters to guess? 

[madmen]

50 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

Even if they might let people in, with what kind of restrictions? I doubt they will just welcome tourists with open arms.

They will mostly get snow birds and those planning long stays. 

[dougiemac52]

13 hours ago, Kelsall said:

We are at least 2-3 years away from travel to Thailand without quarantine and the other restrictions.

What a pile of <deleted>

[khunyod]

14 hours ago, Phillip9 said:

Not true at all.  A corona virus is completely different than an influenza virus.  You shouldn’t make any comparisons between the two.  
 

Some of the vaccines in development are showing a strong antibody and T cell response and scientists now believe that a very effective vaccine will eventually be developed.  It will just take time.
 

 

We won't know until we know. ALL speculation, pessimistic and optimistic, is equally questionable. Wait and see.

[oompie69]

1 hour ago, Max69xl said:

Why do you think anyone at a forum online would have an answer to your questions when no one in the country has a clue??  Do you want posters to guess? 

Bingo!!!! Very much like an opinion survey.

[tribalfusion001]

14 hours ago, Kelsall said:

We are at least 2-3 years away from travel to Thailand without quarantine and the other restrictions.

There would no tourist industry left in 2 or 3 years, it will be lucky to survive another 6 months like this.

[Kelsall]

7 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

There would no tourist industry left in 2 or 3 years, it will be lucky to survive another 6 months like this.

Yep.  People in the tourism business will have to find a different line of work. 

 

Industries change and lay people off all the time.  Time to adapt.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Kelsall

[BritManToo]

10 hours ago, oompie69 said:

My bad! Having been following the posts on TVF for a number of years, I was under the,obviously misguided, impression, that there was a wealth of expert opinion to be found here on any topic under the sun. And that quite a few members had crystal balls that actually worked(no pun intended). Of course my post was pointless. 

As to when normal air traffic will presume, your guess is as good as that of anybody else, nobody knows.

My crystal ball says unrestricted flights and easy international travel are gone for good.

It'll be certificates of fit to fly/vaccination/excessive insurance/tests for years if not forever.

...... and that's if you can find an airline still flying.

Edited August 18, 2020 by BritManToo

[tribalfusion001]

18 minutes ago, Kelsall said:

Yep.  People in the tourism business will have to find a different line of work. 

 

Industries change and lay people off all the time.  Time to adapt.

Rice farming maybe.

 

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

My crystal ball says unrestricted flights and easy international travel are gone for good.

It'll be certificates of fit to fly/vaccination/excessive insurance/tests for years if not forever.

Don't really require much in Europe to fly anywhere, fill in a form and good to go.

[BritManToo]

On 8/18/2020 at 5:42 AM, RichardColeman said:

If that date held true, then Thailand is in for a whole world of financial pain. I believe a lot of business are using up their savings and bank loans to get through to high season and chinese new year - if they are not open by then, I can see 33% of all tourist based businesses gone  by end 2021. Thailand I think cannot cope with a 25%-30% gdp drop and get out of it in months after.

 

Airlines will be pushing way before then as they will go broke long before another 14 months of inactivity. 14 months more of job losses, redundancies and homelessness will push the world to near financial destruction.

 

And God forbid after seeing the great destruction they have caused and the total world economy collapse the Chinese release covid 20

I'd guess 75% of all tourist related business gone for good.

Along with all non-government backed airlines gone as well.

[BritManToo]

Just now, tribalfusion001 said:

Don't really require much in Europe to fly anywhere, fill in a form and good to go.

Europe is effectively one country.

Not that I have any interest in travelling around there (Brexit permitting).