Properties For Sale by Banks and Others

[elliss]

13 minutes ago, Leaver said:

So how am I optimistic that the market hasn't bottomed out yet?

 

     Please inform us .

     Why you are optimistic , that the market , hasn't bottomed out yet .

    

[chrisandsu]

32 minutes ago, Leaver said:

So, could property values could be devastated even more.  Right?  

Something tells me he doesn’t want to engage .

[Leaver]

2 minutes ago, elliss said:

 

     Please inform us .

     Why you are optimistic , that the market , hasn't bottomed out yet .

    

Predicting the market will fall lower is a pessimistic prediction, isn't it? 

[Leaver]

15 minutes ago, elliss said:

What App , along with thai dating sites, are the new norm.

  No bar fine .  Negotiate a fee,  with the Lady ? , on Line..

I agree.  Was happening pre Covid, and will only continue to get bigger, post Covid.

  

The days of the lady drinks and bar fine business model are coming to an end.  

 

[moontang]

12 minutes ago, elliss said:

 

    Sin city , is a worn out whore house.

    However that said .

  What App , along with thai dating sites, are the new norm.

  No bar fine .  Negotiate a fee,  with the Lady ? , on Line..

 

You are talking about the oldest profession..we are talking about the second oldest profession (real estate).  Another item is that the Thai mortgages are not resold, to my knowledge, nor securitized..they are "house" loans meaning the bank that made the loan is likely stuck with whatever its outcome may be.  Might be hard to securitize them, without title insurance...but that is a good thing.  And the Thai banks lost big on US CDOs in 2008..so they know better.

[Jomtien]

Now and then i have my eye on both BAM and SAM. SAM has some good deals around. (beleive SAM is NPLs from Krung Thai)

But they bid on their own execution auctions which is funny.

Think SAM sold one property (around last month..? as it is not listed anymore) in Central Park Hill Side (Pattaya) was good price too.

On the other hand BAM raised the price 1 million (last couple of months) on a property in Baan Suan Neramit (Pattaya) used to be 3 mil now 4 mil.

3mil would be okey. (single story stand alone 78wah never occupied.)

Edited October 16, 2020 by Jomtien
puctuation

[chrisandsu]

The real pressure will be on the Thais to sell who have mortgages on the property . The cash bought/foreign quota can sit there for years on the market unless the price is lowered to a point where big losses are the norm . Effectively taking what you can get and running . 

[Leaver]

15 minutes ago, moontang said:

When was the last time you saw a decent property auction here?

Where is "here?"  

 

There will be defaults across the whole of Thailand, in unprecedented numbers.  

 

Thai banks will be pulled down by defaults nation wide, not just in the tourist areas.  

[Leaver]

5 minutes ago, Jomtien said:

3mil would be okey. (single story stand alone 78wah never occupied.)

Ok for what, exactly?  

[Jomtien]

ahh okey single story house in Baan Suan Nermit, Location of the project is direct on Soi Chaiyapruck not a bad location. (extreme wide rd.)

 

And for property auctions, every wednesdays, country wide, you can follow via webcam (pattaya cam is not working at the moment)

[Leaver]

4 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

The real pressure will be on the Thais to sell who have mortgages on the property . The cash bought/foreign quota can sit there for years on the market unless the price is lowered to a point where big losses are the norm . Effectively taking what you can get and running . 

A lot of older farang here believe they will be leaving a windfall to their Thai wife, upon their demise, in the form of a Pattaya property, be it a condo, or a house. 

 

It's not mortgaged, but can't be sold, so what exactly are they leaving the Thai missus?  

[Leaver]

Just now, Jomtien said:

ahh okey single story house in Baan Suan Nermit, Location of the project is direct on Soi Chaiyapruck not a bad location. (extreme wide rd.)

 

And for property auctions, every wednesdays, country wide, you can follow via webcam (pattaya cam is not working at the moment)

No one knows what Pattaya will look like, post Covid.  

 

It's possible it may not be as desirable to live in as it was previously, especially if it becomes Chinatown. 

 

Who would buy a house to live in here now, when the city has an uncertain future, no matter how cheap?  

[chrisandsu]

6 minutes ago, Leaver said:

A lot of older farang here believe they will be leaving a windfall to their Thai wife, upon their demise, in the form of a Pattaya property, be it a condo, or a house. 

 

It's not mortgaged, but can't be sold, so what exactly are they leaving the Thai missus?  

She’s been bluffing for years - that would be the ultimate bluff back surely ? ????

[onebir]

23 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

The cash bought/foreign quota can sit there for years on the market

Not necessarily, if Chinese buyers (for example) end up needing cash to keep businesses going in China. IDK how likely this is.

[Airalee]

18 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

The real pressure will be on the Thais to sell who have mortgages on the property . The cash bought/foreign quota can sit there for years on the market unless the price is lowered to a point where big losses are the norm . Effectively taking what you can get and running . 

The problem I see with Thais with mortgages is that over the last few years, I saw numerous advertisements for 100% LTV (and sometimes even 110%) interest only or even negative amortizing loans.  So, as values fall and the homedebtors find themselves underwater they either have to trudge along, hopefully making the payments or let the house go back to the bank.  Unlike the foreign cash purchasers, who are able to sell for a loss, as unpalatable as it might be, the Thais are “priced in”.
 

Also...the Thais who may have purchased a long time ago could have been potentially availing themselves of all the cash out refinancing offers, and spending the equity as the value was going up.

[chrisandsu]

4 minutes ago, onebir said:

Not necessarily, if Chinese buyers (for example) end up needing cash to keep businesses going in China. IDK how likely this is.

Agree we all need money . The only real difference I can see is that they won’t lose it when they can’t sell it . Price either goes to a point where someone will take a punt or it sits there rotting away for years like thousands of condos in Thailand are doing right now . 

[chrisandsu]

2 minutes ago, Airalee said:

The problem I see with Thais with mortgages is that over the last few years, I saw numerous advertisements for 100% LTV (and sometimes even 110%) interest only or even negative amortizing loans.  So, as values fall and the homedebtors find themselves underwater they either have to trudge along, hopefully making the payments or let the house go back to the bank.  Unlike the foreign cash purchasers, who are able to sell for a loss, as unpalatable as it might be, the Thais are “priced in”.
 

Also...the Thais who may have purchased a long time ago could have been potentially availing themselves of all the cash out refinancing offers, and spending the equity as the value was going up.

Yep . They are leveraged to the hilt . I feel sorry for them as it’s not much different back in the west . If you want to own a property it’s 30 years of payments and saddled with a huge debt . It’s an educated guess and a huge slice of luck if it ends up working in your favour . 

[Airalee]

4 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Yep . They are leveraged to the hilt . I feel sorry for them as it’s not much different back in the west . If you want to own a property it’s 30 years of payments and saddled with a huge debt . It’s an educated guess and a huge slice of luck if it ends up working in your favour . 

30 years.  That’s almost a working lifetime by the time someone is ready to buy a home.  I remember when prudent borrowing for a home was 2.5 to 3 times annual income.  Now it seems as if 5-7 times is the norm.  It’s pretty much debt slavery.  
 

I’m reminded of a quote by someone on a housing bubble blog back in 2007.

 

”Serfdom is cool, it’s so retro...let’s party like its 1399”
 

http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/02/serfdom-is-cool-its-so-retrolets-party.html

[chrisandsu]

2 minutes ago, Airalee said:

30 years.  That’s almost a working lifetime by the time someone is ready to buy a home.  I remember when prudent borrowing for a home was 2.5 to 3 times annual income.  Now it seems as if 5-7 times is the norm.  It’s pretty much debt slavery.  
 

I’m reminded of a quote by someone on a housing bubble blog back in 2007.

 

”Serfdom is cool, it’s so retro...let’s party like its 1399”
 

http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/02/serfdom-is-cool-its-so-retrolets-party.html

I think it’s exactly that . Just keeping us on the hamster wheel forever . Luckily because of the interest rates being so low I just refinanced and took my mortgage down to a 15 year knocking 6 years of interest and payments off while paying the same amount . I can see a little light at the end of the tunnel now I feel sorry for the youngsters hoping to jump onto the property bandwagon who have to compete with Chinese investors .  

[Leaver]

31 minutes ago, Airalee said:

The problem I see with Thais with mortgages is that over the last few years, I saw numerous advertisements for 100% LTV (and sometimes even 110%) interest only or even negative amortizing loans.

Who is really over leveraged, NOW?  

[onebir]

3 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Who is really over leveraged, NOW? 

People who over-leveraged themselves THEN... (or took on what seemed like reasonable leverage, but now have much reduced income).

[Leaver]

Just now, onebir said:

People who over-leveraged themselves THEN... (or took on what seemed like reasonable leverage, but now have much reduced income).

Where did all those people borrow their money from?

 

Who is really overleveraged, NOW?  

[moontang]

1 hour ago, Jomtien said:

ahh okey single story house in Baan Suan Nermit, Location of the project is direct on Soi Chaiyapruck not a bad location. (extreme wide rd.)

 

And for property auctions, every wednesdays, country wide, you can follow via webcam (pattaya cam is not working at the moment)

I would like to have a look, but the auction sites are mostly scams in the us..wouldn't expect much different here.  Are they absolute auctions?  Is the reserve "top secret," or more than you could buy a better house from a private party for?  Are they guaranteeing clear title?  Last time I looked at krungsriproperty, they still had some from 1998...all garbage..

[MRToMRT]

There was no great sell off or baht price reductions after the 97 fin crisis, I don't think you are going see any bargins now either. The "need to sell" quickly does not seem to be in the Thai home sellers thought process.

[Leaver]

13 minutes ago, MRToMRT said:

There was no great sell off or baht price reductions after the 97 fin crisis, I don't think you are going see any bargins now either. The "need to sell" quickly does not seem to be in the Thai home sellers thought process.

Difficult to establish if there will be a "need to sell" because there simply are no buyers, so why bother listing the sale.  Even the banks will not bother.  

 

The true status of the property market here will not reveal itself until next year.

[chrisandsu]

6 hours ago, Leaver said:

Where did all those people borrow their money from?

 

Who is really overleveraged, NOW?  

At a guess pretty much everyone that bought and then  lost a job through no fault of their own . 

[scubascuba3]

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

A lot of older farang here believe they will be leaving a windfall to their Thai wife, upon their demise, in the form of a Pattaya property, be it a condo, or a house. 

 

It's not mortgaged, but can't be sold, so what exactly are they leaving the Thai missus?  

You do have a point there, they need to be given enough money to live on also or otherwise they will not be able to afford maintenance and the condo will be repossessed. 

 

A good time to go to auctions, a friend just picked up a popular condo for around 750k, bargain, resell refurbished 1.5m

Edited October 16, 2020 by scubascuba3

[ExpatOilWorker]

9 hours ago, moontang said:

The foreclosure process is much longer than the non-judicial foreclosure, deed of trust process in the US.  The foreclosure process and trustees are spelled out at loan signing.  There was an inadvertent amount of foreclosures racked up in a short period.  Banks were overwhelmed with property management, which they knew almost nothing about.  There will have to be balance sheet trouble here, before the big reductions.  When was the last time you saw a decent property auction here?

That is a good point. Why are there no property auctions here?

They do have almost weekly vehicle auctions in Bangkok, but the last property auction I remember was back in 2002/03. Back then they auctioned off 50-70 units in the same building in a day.

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

Predicting the market will fall lower is a pessimistic prediction, isn't it? 

Not if one is a buyer..... I optimistically predict beer will be cheaper too.

[Grumpy John]

On 10/8/2020 at 11:15 PM, kingofthemountain said:

Interesting

 

the fact that the bank gives this public shows of bad the things are at the moment

usually the real bargain are shared only between the ''happy few''

they have probably already done their shopping, so it's now the left over.

 

For someone intersted to buy on this market, the real bargain will be here in 4-5 months

after the ''high season'' with 0 tourists.

 

"the real bargain will be here in 4-5 months"  What I was going to post!  Your quite right.  From January 2021 it should get very interesting!