NPL crisis due to Covid-19 'worse than 1997 meltdown'

[Surelynot]

2 minutes ago, 86Tiger said:

that is if the building can remain open for lack of tenants.

I wondered about that.....I am in a condo (renting) with a lot of staff and a lot of facilities......am correct in thinking all these costs are covered by management fees that still have to be paid by the owners regardless of market conditions......so unless they actually default, life should continue as is??? 

[CLW]

Cheap real estate, car and motorbikes waiting for those with cash

[timendres]

27 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

As you indicate, tourism is affected. But the rest of country is doing well, as normal. Overall 2020 GDP is forecast to be down about 8%, which is not bad overall. However, that 8% is focused on the tourist areas like Pattaya, Phuket, inner Chiang Mai, etc. Bangkok is as busy as ever. I returned from Isaan, and nobody seems financially affected because tourists rarely go to that part of the country.

The "surface" that you see in Bangkok does not reflect the "rot" that is building underneath. Here on Sukumvit Soi 81, buildings are emptying, businesses are struggling, people are losing jobs. It is not really visible, but talking with the locals makes it very clear. Unlike those tourist areas, the ripples are moving slower in Bangkok, but there are certainly making their way across the economy here.

[spidermike007]

30 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

As you indicate, tourism is affected. But the rest of country is doing well, as normal. Overall 2020 GDP is forecast to be down about 8%, which is not bad overall. However, that 8% is focused on the tourist areas like Pattaya, Phuket, inner Chiang Mai, etc. Bangkok is as busy as ever. I returned from Isaan, and nobody seems financially affected because tourists rarely go to that part of the country.

False. The $100 billion (yes, about 3.3 trillion baht!) Thailand takes in from tourism annually reverberates out in countless ways. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from tourists, who later became expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income are from expats. Countless business employing many. Much money in Issan is sent from people working elsewhere. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics. Thousands of hotels, restaurants, countless airlines and many tour companies, also benefit. 

 

I was recently in Bangkok. It was quiet. Much quieter than usual. Less traffic than usual. Malls were far less crowded, and people are spending alot less money now. Alot of fear and cation. Automotive sales are way, way down. So are condo sales. There are countless areas that emanate out into the entire nation. 

 

In addition to tourism, manufacturing is down. Automotive production is down. Exports are down. 

 

At some stage, hopefully sooner rather than later, the Thai government will have to re-open its borders and find a way to ‘manage’ the Covid-19 situation rather than remain in a travel bubble of its own making. The longer the government doesn’t re-open to something akin to general tourism, the harder it will be to re-boot the former Thai tourism powerhouse.
 

Edited October 12, 2020 by spidermike007

[John Drake]

11 hours ago, webfact said:

However, the chairman thought that the NPL would not totally emerge in the credit system, since banks have a procedure for tackling this predictable problem.

They just sublet the collections to Murder, Inc.

[86Tiger]

15 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

False. The $100 billion (yes, about 3.3 trillion baht!) Thailand takes in from tourism annually reverberates out in countless ways. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from tourists, who later became expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income are from expats. Countless business employing many. Much money in Issan is sent from people working elsewhere. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics. Thousands of hotels, restaurants, countless airlines and many tour companies, also benefit........... 

 

 

Absolutely correct.

 

A very good caddy I use once told me in discussion of tips it didn't matter to him what a player tipped as he sends all his money to his mother.  He keeps enough to pay for small room and food, everything else goes to his mother.  I think this is more the norm than exception. 

 

We hear constantly about how much GDP is generated from tourism.  But I don't believe there is any way to account for all the "cash" changing hands that is never recorded, which most ends up back in Issaan.

[Kwaibill]

5 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Everything is of concern, the tourism bubble has burst, the economy was struggling with the baht value and the shine has gone from Thailands image.

Yet Prayut says all is well in the land.

Taking a cue from US "news"?

[Cake Monster]

14 hours ago, webfact said:

BAM explained that financial institutions in 1997 had a low rate fund to deal with NPLs in the economic system. Moreover, the household debt at that time was low, and small businesses were not affected by the crisis.

In 1997 Banks had a low rate fund to deal with LOW Household debt, and SME was not affected.

Lets move on

2020 The banks have relatively high liquidity to deal with NPL

However, the Household debt is now 83% of GDP and rising fast, which is extremely high, and at record levels.

Many SME are also in a whole pile of hurt called debt

And the situation is not as bad as 1997 ?

[robblok]

On 10/12/2020 at 9:02 AM, holy cow cm said:

sorry robblok. Not entitled so - "watch your words with me". Their stipulation is cannot be paid more than 3 days earlier from due date. Get it? The invoice was also sent 5 days earlier than the due date.

 

The biggest thing was how they went about it with their new watch hired debt collector dog and so everyone is going to see this in their faces now. The card always is paid off every month at any one (1) given time and never ever ever before has the beforehand payment been a factor or even mentioned to be only 2-3 days before the due date. ONLY this time! One of the main things they were pushing for is wanting the interest only and for that I did not mention in the post, and I don't ever care about or will ever give them. I have payed one time per month at my disposal and timing and now it is their push to have it at no less than 2-3 days prior to due date. They really want the interest and the other 2 things mentioned are they want now to be able to take direct payment out of the bank account automatically ( NO WAY IN H e ..) or I think they want to have only the interest paid by tacking it on to the debt as paid (money maker). The money is piddly and insignificant and the payment was maid not 1 month before but in the same term.

 

Anyway, now I know the game it is not big deal but just a hoop to jump abiding their 3 day period before due date. I actually see this as a sign of the financial crash times here for most all of their institutions.

Sounds to me your making thins hard for nothing. My creditcard is automatically deducted too. Saves a lot of hassle. You are far to rigid. I feel your too entitled. But that is my opinion. I never had a problem with automatic collections. My phone, electricity water all get taken by them. I guess I am more trusting and less of a control freak.

 

I actually see no problems at all their banks are healthy they can absorb this. There are tough times but those banks are healthy (non government ones)

[holy cow cm]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Sounds to me your making thins hard for nothing. My creditcard is automatically deducted too. Saves a lot of hassle. You are far to rigid. I feel your too entitled. But that is my opinion. I never had a problem with automatic collections. My phone, electricity water all get taken by them. I guess I am more trusting and less of a control freak.

 

I actually see no problems at all their banks are healthy they can absorb this. There are tough times but those banks are healthy (non government ones)

Up to you! You live life your way and I will live life my way.

[robblok]

11 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

Up to you! You live life your way and I will live life my way.

Sure, but i reserve the right to comment if i think its about a storm in a teacup like this. You make it out as if its anti farang and almost like your human rights are violated for such a small thing. While with auto incasso no such problem would exist.

 

I think a more relaxed attitude would serve you better. Just my opinion.

Edited October 13, 2020 by robblok

[holy cow cm]

7 minutes ago, robblok said:

Sure, but i reserve the right to comment if i think its about a storm in a teacup like this. You make it out as if its anti farang and almost like your human rights are violated for such a small thing. While with auto incasso no such problem would exist.

 

I think a more relaxed attitude would serve you better. Just my opinion.

Put it this way. I am the secondary card holder on my Thai wife's main account. She received nothing but I got hassled. So you better believe it was pin the tail on the foreigner.

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, holy cow cm said:

Put it this way. I am the secondary card holder on my Thai wife's main account. She received nothing but I got hassled. So you better believe it was pin the tail on the foreigner.

Deep pockets since you are married to a Thai.  What"s yours is their's and what's their's is their's.  Either family wants it or the banks. Never an even playing field.

[metisdead]

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[anto]

17 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Deep pockets since you are married to a Thai.  What"s yours is their's and what's their's is their's.  Either family wants it or the banks. Never an even playing field.

>>Deep pockets since you are married to a Thai. << When you are married to a Thai ,in more cases than not ,your pockets are never deep enough.

[Banana7]

Looks like non-performing loans (NPLs) are rising fast. Earlier this month Bangkok Bank issued USD$750 million in bonds and Kasikorn is selling USD$500 million perpetual bonds, which cannot be recalled within 5 years, on Oct. 14, 2020.

 

BOT's debt deferral scheme is scheduled to end Oct. 22 so we should start see lots of assets, pledged as loan collateral, come for sale.

Edited October 14, 2020 by Banana7

[ThailandRyan]

9 hours ago, anto said:

>>Deep pockets since you are married to a Thai. << When you are married to a Thai ,in more cases than not ,your pockets are never deep enough.

So true, so true.

[Pravda]

On 10/12/2020 at 9:14 AM, tomazbodner said:

all the money (OK, I didn't have much at that time) was on the account and could be withdrawn again normally, just wasn't worth anywhere near as much as a few days earlier.

 

I have a lot of laffs from various financial advisers on this forum, but the best one I like from Thailand cheerleaders is Thai banks are safe and deposits are insured at 5 million baht. This gives me epic lolz because I grew up in Yugoslavia during hyperinflation. If a bank would ever need a government bailout sure enough your money will be "insured", but what will it really be worth? 

 

 

[Cake Monster]

17 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

Looks like non-performing loans (NPLs) are rising fast. Earlier this month Bangkok Bank issued USD$750 million in bonds and Kasikorn is selling USD$500 million perpetual bonds, which cannot be recalled within 5 years, on Oct. 14, 2020.

 

BOT's debt deferral scheme is scheduled to end Oct. 22 so we should start see lots of assets, pledged as loan collateral, come for sale.

And just this Morning in a Article from another Newspaper based in Bangkok, the Banks are desperately trying to restructure Loans that are delinquent, into Loans that are not.

This means the borrower has to pay either the principle payments on the loans, OR the Interest Payments under a scheme called " Special Mention Loans " which is where Loans that are between 30 and 90 days overdue are not classed as NPL Loan.

By placing these Loans in " Special Mention Loans " the Banks are not showing NPL on their books, which upholds their Share price and gives Investors confidence to invest.

But once a bad payer, always a bad payer ..... until default.

There was also much concern expressed in the Article about depreciating Asset Values

The article is well worth a read.

 

[Banana7]

Bank of Thailand is not reporting current commercial bank NPLs in 2020. Normally NPLs are reported every quarter.

 

BOT indicates last update was: 23 Sep 2020 16:00 but no 2020 data available. See here: https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=428&language=eng

 

Looks like the banks are withholding critical data and information from the public. I doubt there is any good news or data that's being with held.

[Banana7]

6 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

And just this Morning in a Article from another Newspaper based in Bangkok, the Banks are desperately trying to restructure Loans that are delinquent, into Loans that are not.

This means the borrower has to pay either the principle payments on the loans, OR the Interest Payments under a scheme called " Special Mention Loans " which is where Loans that are between 30 and 90 days overdue are not classed as NPL Loan.

By placing these Loans in " Special Mention Loans " the Banks are not showing NPL on their books, which upholds their Share price and gives Investors confidence to invest.

But once a bad payer, always a bad payer ..... until default.

There was also much concern expressed in the Article about depreciating Asset Values

The article is well worth a read.

 

Here are the statistics for the "special mention loans" from BOT, latest update, 20 August 2020. Note SMLs lag 50 day for reporting.

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=906&language=eng

Personal Consumption SML are at 339.7 billion baht! All SMLs are 1,229,404.16 million baht

FI_SM_001.xlsx

[Nook225]

On 10/11/2020 at 12:05 PM, webfact said:

However, the chairman thought that the NPL would not totally emerge in the credit system, since banks have a procedure for tackling this predictable problem.

Sure, the procedure is called “write-off”.