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[welovesundaysatspace]

9 minutes ago, Patts said:

It's not my comment, it's a quote taken directly from the BBC, again you make a completely incorrect assumption and make yourself look like a fool!

 

Written by:

By Andrew Walker
BBC World Service economics correspondent

Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46612362#:~:text=When we look at the,of the EU 27 GDP.

 

LOL you were the one quoting this article (and the paragraph about “if we exclude...” in particular) in response to the comment that the UK relies more an the EU market than the other way round. You’re the one making a fool of yourself. 

[Patts]

17 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

LOL you were the one quoting this article (and the paragraph about “if we exclude...” in particular) in response to the comment that the UK relies more an the EU market than the other way round. You’re the one making a fool of yourself. 

Please feel free to keep making assumptions.  

 

I provided a link to the full article to the OP where it goes into a fair amount of detail, so I included the quoted text (again from the same article) and returned as abbreviated answer by google, so the OP could view it quickly and read the full article if they wanted. The OP stated that the EU's trade with the UK is less than 5% of their exports, I provided the abbreviated quote as this factually showed what the OP said was incorrect as the the EU's exports are 6.2%. Again I also provided a link to the full article in my reply to you.  keep nipping away with your superiority complex.  

Edited October 17, 2020 by Patts

[Robo23]

On 10/16/2020 at 4:47 AM, John Drake said:

Seems to me as an outsider that France wants to control British territory and Germany wants to control British tax and corporate policy. Essentially, Britain will be a colony of the EU, with its laws and resources controlled by the EU while the British don't even get a vote or say in the matter.

 

[Bruntoid]

On 10/16/2020 at 2:25 PM, 86Tiger said:

Walk away.  don't give them squat.

 

You have the rest of the world to deal with on your own terms.  EU will not be missed.

Haha priceless isn’t it - so according to this brexiteer THE largest trading bloc on the planet won’t be missed!!

 

It is truly scary you were given a vote on the UK’s future. 

[Bruntoid]

On 10/16/2020 at 3:07 PM, Patts said:

You are looking at it as if we would have zero trade with the EU if we didn't leave on their terms which is simply not the case.

 

If we leave without a deal, trade will continue via World Trade Organisation terms which would mean goods would likely take longer to import/export and be subject to taxes but we would still have access to the EU. 

 

On these terms would would also be free to make new trade agreements with the rest of the world which could lead to far more exports for the UK. 

Given we’re 4 years into this self harm  - how are the trade agreements going you speak of ? 

[billd766]

On 10/16/2020 at 6:04 PM, BillStrangeOgre said:

Then where will we sell our fish? The EU will put tariffs on fish coming from the UK if they don't have access. 

If the EU puts tarrifs on fish coming in who will pay the end (and more expensive) bill. The people of the EU of course. If the UK cannot sell as much fish, then they will catch less, which in turn will allow fish stocks to be replenished.

[Patts]

25 minutes ago, Bruntoid said:

Given we’re 4 years into this self harm  - how are the trade agreements going you speak of ? 

The UK hadn't been free to get new trade deals until 31st January this year which has meant we have only had 9 months to negotiate deals and with Brexit talks on going and Covid there has certainly been delays. So far we have a deal in principle with Japan and mutual recognition agreements have been signed with the USA, New Zealand and Australia. 

 

The following trade deals have been confirmed:

 

Andean countries

CARIFORUM trade bloc

Central America

Chile

Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc 

Faroe Islands

Georgia

Iceland and Norway

Israel

Jordan

Kosovo

Lebanon

Liechtenstein

Morocco

Pacific states

Palestinian Authority

Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc

South Korea

Switzerland

Tunisia

Edited October 17, 2020 by Patts

[evadgib]

1 hour ago, Bruntoid said:

Haha priceless isn’t it - so according to this brexiteer THE largest trading bloc on the planet won’t be missed!!

 

It is truly scary you were given a vote on the UK’s future. 

What happened to yours?

 

[Bruntoid]

1 hour ago, Patts said:

The UK hadn't been free to get new trade deals until 31st January this year which has meant we have only had 9 months to negotiate deals and with Brexit talks on going and Covid there has certainly been delays. So far we have a deal in principle with Japan and mutual recognition agreements have been signed with the USA, New Zealand and Australia. 

 

The following trade deals have been confirmed:

 

Andean countries

CARIFORUM trade bloc

Central America

Chile

Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc 

Faroe Islands

Georgia

Iceland and Norway

Israel

Jordan

Kosovo

Lebanon

Liechtenstein

Morocco

Pacific states

Palestinian Authority

Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc

South Korea

Switzerland

Tunisia

so no deals with Japan, New Zealand and Australia then ?? and there certainly isn’t one or close to one with USA ! 
 

But seriously how did you manage to type that list with a straight face ?? 
 

Faroe Islands, Lichtenstein !! ????????????

 

Who needs the $17+ trillion GDB EU - when you’ve got that list of industrial powerhouses !! ????

[Bruntoid]

11 minutes ago, evadgib said:

What happened to yours?

 

What happened to my what ? 

[candide]

1 hour ago, Patts said:

The UK hadn't been free to get new trade deals until 31st January this year which has meant we have only had 9 months to negotiate deals and with Brexit talks on going and Covid there has certainly been delays. So far we have a deal in principle with Japan and mutual recognition agreements have been signed with the USA, New Zealand and Australia. 

 

The following trade deals have been confirmed:

 

Andean countries

CARIFORUM trade bloc

Central America

Chile

Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc 

Faroe Islands

Georgia

Iceland and Norway

Israel

Jordan

Kosovo

Lebanon

Liechtenstein

Morocco

Pacific states

Palestinian Authority

Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc

South Korea

Switzerland

Tunisia

No new export opportunities for UK. UK already had access to these countries because they all have an agreement with the EU.

[Patts]

On 10/17/2020 at 3:17 PM, Bruntoid said:

so no deals with Japan, New Zealand and Australia then ?? and there certainly isn’t one or close to one with USA ! 
 

But seriously how did you manage to type that list with a straight face ?? 
 

Faroe Islands, Lichtenstein !! ????????????

 

Who needs the $17+ trillion GDB EU - when you’ve got that list of industrial powerhouses !! ????

I didn't type it, all information is from the Gov.uk Website.......You remainers love making assumptions 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Patts

[Chelseafan]

On 10/16/2020 at 8:23 AM, Patts said:

We don't need access to the internal market, the UK buys considerably more from the EU than they do from the UK. If the EU don't won't to allow us access to the internal market then it is they who will lose.

 

"The EU, taken as a whole is the UK's largest trading partner. In 2019, UK exports to the EU were £300 billion (43% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £372 billion (51% of all UK imports)".

 

Why should the UK be held to ransom when we are at a £72 billion annual deficit and give the French and Dutch access to our already over fished waters!? 

 

You realise that the UK fishes in EU waters too. It works both ways.

 

[Patts]

On 10/17/2020 at 3:40 PM, candide said:

No new export opportunities for UK. UK already had access to these countries because they all have an agreement with the EU.

From the Government Website:

"Agreements with the following countries and trading blocs are expected to take effect when existing EU trade agreements no longer apply to the UK, from 1 January 2021."

Edited October 18, 2020 by Patts

[Patts]

11 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

 

You realise that the UK fishes in EU waters too. It works both ways.

 

I'm not saying it doesn't but there is a reason the French and Dutch are so desperate to keep fishing our waters and just last week 12 french/dutch trawlers attacked 2 UK trawlers fishing in UK waters.  In 2019, the total weight of fish landed by UK vessels in the UK and abroad was 621,900 tonnes, of which 230,700 tonnes (37%) were landed abroad.

 

In 2015, the UK was allocated 30% of the EU quota for fishing ground stocks which occur in UK waters. The area of UK waters relative to other member states is certainly high, but the exact proportions depend on the region and which components of member state waters should be considered.

If Farage’s point is that most of the quota for fish stocks that live in UK waters are fished by other member states, then he is correct; but the figure is not 80%, more like 70%. However, these are not “our” fish, the fish that live in UK waters are no more British than they are German, Dutch, Belgian, Irish or Norwegian: they are in fact European.

 

Link: https://theconversation.com/fact-check-is-80-of-uk-fish-given-away-to-the-rest-of-europe-39966

Edited October 18, 2020 by Patts

[Chelseafan]

On 10/16/2020 at 8:35 AM, Patts said:

Well please fell free to explain it to me as you're clearly much smarter?

 

leaving on WTO terms would still give us access to export and import with the EU plus allow us free to create new trade deals with the US, China, SE Asia etc. 

 

As someone who works as a buyer for one of the larger retailers let me tell you that a no deal would be catastrophic, certainly for the short-term. Firstly, we've already been told that truck availibility is going to be serverely reduced. Those trucks making 2-3 trips a week between EU and UK will probably only be able to make 1-2 trips. Retailers and suppliers are already stockpiling products from outside the EU putting additional strain on transport from port to the retailers distribution hubs. Some EU suppliers have already said that they will not be supplying as they don't want their trucks held up nor do they want to be burdened with the additional paperwork. You might say, 'who needs them' well we do; as avaibility of items is diminished other suppliers will increase their prices.

We now have to employ additional vets at our depot (additional cost) to issue health certificates for export. This also slows down the distribution chain which is not great for short-shelflife items.

Assuming we can find storage, companies are charging a premium and someone has to pay for this!

And lets not forget the exchange rates, if the pound crashes on a no-deal then not only does the Euro get stronger but probably the dollar too (a lot of global trade is in US dollars)

 

I will tell you this for free. In the short-term, there WILL be lack of avaibility and there WILL be price increases.

 

 

 

[Chelseafan]

10 minutes ago, Patts said:

I'm not saying it doesn't but there is a reason the French and Dutch are so desperate to keep fishing our waters and just last week 12 french/dutch trawlers attacked 2 UK trawlers fishing in UK waters.  In 2019, the total weight of fish landed by UK vessels in the UK and abroad was 621,900 tonnes, of which 230,700 tonnes (37%) were landed abroad.

 

In 2015, the UK was allocated 30% of the EU quota for fishing ground stocks which occur in UK waters. The area of UK waters relative to other member states is certainly high, but the exact proportions depend on the region and which components of member state waters should be considered.

If Farage’s point is that most of the quota for fish stocks that live in UK waters are fished by other member states, then he is correct; but the figure is not 80%, more like 70%. However, these are not “our” fish, the fish that live in UK waters are no more British than they are German, Dutch, Belgian, Irish or Norwegian: they are in fact European.

 

Link: https://theconversation.com/fact-check-is-80-of-uk-fish-given-away-to-the-rest-of-europe-39966

 

All that says to me is that we will have an over-supply of haddock and lack of avaibility of sea bass.

Assuming we get 100% quota to UK waters, who is going to buy it ? The French and Dutch will source elsewhere.

There has to be a balance of fishing rights.

 

[Chelseafan]

On 10/16/2020 at 12:15 PM, pixelaoffy said:

EU has been 'missing ' any useful purpose for years now! A failing bureaucratic protection racket

 

I agree its a bureaucratic protection racket but please don't think it's failing, it's not

 

And you really should look up what the EU has done for us. Its a lot! From harmonised quality controls on food to reduction of roaming phone charges.

 

[englishoak]

2 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

I agree its a bureaucratic protection racket but please don't think it's failing, it's not

 

And you really should look up what the EU has done for us. Its a lot! From harmonised quality controls on food to reduction of roaming phone charges.

 

Dosnt matter, the argument is done, the vote is over and we are leaving, there will be a deal of course but not necessarily before next year...

 

My daughters in B&M at one of the worlds biggest retailers too, says quite the opposite, lines are decreasing in options yes but so are prices and in her industry prices wont increase overly in the short term, they are expecting and experiencing the reverse of that and experiencing price drops but its not Brexit driven, more global demand and automation driven along with new eco targets and muh climate issues, a drop in prices for the short to medium term is actually priced in, on top of being kicked in the teeth by this plague consumers disposable income are expected to be down for a good few years too...it probably depends on the industry though too. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by englishoak

[candide]

3 hours ago, Patts said:

From the Government Website:

"Agreements with the following countries and trading blocs are expected to take effect when existing EU trade agreements no longer apply to the UK, from 1 January 2021."

I know.

You initially claimed: "On these terms would would also be free to make new trade agreements with the rest of the world which could lead to far more exports for the UK." Then provided a list of agreements , which are expected to take effect from 1 January 2021 , as you rightly recall.

 

My point is that the agreements you listed are not likely to lead to far more exports because UK has already been able to export to these countries (in most cases, for years) because they have a similar agreement with the EU.

[Patts]

16 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

As someone who works as a buyer for one of the larger retailers let me tell you that a no deal would be catastrophic, certainly for the short-term. Firstly, we've already been told that truck availibility is going to be serverely reduced. Those trucks making 2-3 trips a week between EU and UK will probably only be able to make 1-2 trips. Retailers and suppliers are already stockpiling products from outside the EU putting additional strain on transport from port to the retailers distribution hubs. Some EU suppliers have already said that they will not be supplying as they don't want their trucks held up nor do they want to be burdened with the additional paperwork. You might say, 'who needs them' well we do; as avaibility of items is diminished other suppliers will increase their prices.

We now have to employ additional vets at our depot (additional cost) to issue health certificates for export. This also slows down the distribution chain which is not great for short-shelflife items.

Assuming we can find storage, companies are charging a premium and someone has to pay for this!

And lets not forget the exchange rates, if the pound crashes on a no-deal then not only does the Euro get stronger but probably the dollar too (a lot of global trade is in US dollars)

 

I will tell you this for free. In the short-term, there WILL be lack of avaibility and there WILL be price increases.

 

 

 

I don't disagree that there will be some short term pain; but over the following years the problems will be ironed out and new agreements will be created. To say "no deal" will be catastrophic is a massive assumption......

 

There maybe delays, some price increases and some falls. Some sectors will lose trade and some will gain. The government has already stated that they will not be applying tariffs to 88% of goods. 

 

GDP may drop a little more on a "No deal" but it seems to already have found the bottom of its trading range and has been on somewhat of a recovery over the past few months. 

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Patts

[Patts]

12 hours ago, candide said:

I know.

You initially claimed: "On these terms would would also be free to make new trade agreements with the rest of the world which could lead to far more exports for the UK." Then provided a list of agreements , which are expected to take effect from 1 January 2021 , as you rightly recall.

 

My point is that the agreements you listed are not likely to lead to far more exports because UK has already been able to export to these countries (in most cases, for years) because they have a similar agreement with the EU.

Nothing I said was incorrect. I never said that the UK was going to get lots of new trade deals on the 1st January 2021. I was showing that the UK does have trade agreements that are affective from this date. It will take a considerable amount of time for the UK to sign new trade deals and for those deals to be at such a level where they offset any potential losses from leaving the EU. 

 

As stated before we already have on going trade talks and agreements in principle with Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the US (although that could depend on the outcome of the US election). When these "agreements in principle" become trade deals, I don't know. 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Patts

[RayC]

56 minutes ago, Patts said:

I don't disagree that there will be some short term pain; but over the following years the problems will be ironed out and new agreements will be created. 

 

There maybe delays, some price increases and some falls. Some sectors will lose trade and some will gain. The government has already stated that they will not be applying tariffs to 88% of goods.     

 

GDP may drop a little more on a "No deal" but it seems to already have found the bottom of its trading range and has been on somewhat of a recovery over the past few months. 

 

Who knows what the future may bring? If proof were needed, Covid-19 has clearly demonstrated that an unforeseen event can cause (economic) chaos.

 

However, as a member of the EU the UK's trading conditions with 27 other states (I ignore EU/ 3rd country deals for ease of addition) were known, and businesses could plan for the future on that basis. Post 2020 that certainly is removed and replaced with what?

 

(Economic) models can often be wildly inaccurate, but they are the best tools that we have; the only one that I have seen that predict a rosier economic future in the medium term for the UK post-Brexit was Minford's. Maybe he will be proved right, but the weight of (informed) opinion suggests otherwise. 

 

(If anyone wishes to respond to this message, please keep to the economic/ trade argument for Brexit; sovereignty and the role of the EU as a force for good (or evil) is another discussion. Thanks.)

[Chelseafan]

2 hours ago, Patts said:

I don't disagree that there will be some short term pain; but over the following years the problems will be ironed out and new agreements will be created. To say "no deal" will be catastrophic is a massive assumption......

 

There maybe delays, some price increases and some falls. Some sectors will lose trade and some will gain. The government has already stated that they will not be applying tariffs to 88% of goods. 

 

GDP may drop a little more on a "No deal" but it seems to already have found the bottom of its trading range and has been on somewhat of a recovery over the past few months. 

 

 

I said Catostrophic for the short-term.

The Government has said a lot of things regarding Brexit which have frankly been proven to be BS. Please tell me which of the 88% of items will be tariff free so that we plan out. There are less than 75 days to go and we are still in the dark. Which sectors are going to lose trade ? How can those sectors avoid it ? We plan very well in retail but the uncertainty is causing massive issues.

GDP is only rising given the uncertainty of what is happening in the US. If there IS a no-deal I would very much expect the pound to crash further.

 

 

[Patts]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

 

I said Catostrophic for the short-term.

The Government has said a lot of things regarding Brexit which have frankly been proven to be BS. Please tell me which of the 88% of items will be tariff free so that we plan out. There are less than 75 days to go and we are still in the dark. Which sectors are going to lose trade ? How can those sectors avoid it ? We plan very well in retail but the uncertainty is causing massive issues.

GDP is only rising given the uncertainty of what is happening in the US. If there IS a no-deal I would very much expect the pound to crash further.

 

 

 

All Governments in all democratic countries have said things that have turned out to be incorrect. Your companies logistics manager should be talking to his counterparts and know what items tariffs apply to as well as having a good idea of the procedure that will need to be followed in the event of "No Deal" as I am sure he/she deals with imports/exports to WTO member countries day in, day out. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-tariffs-from-1-january-2021

 

It's down to individual companies to know how they may be affected by Brexit and to have a plan of action to mitigate possible reductions in trade, but this should have all have been in place a long time ago. 

[Chelseafan]

4 hours ago, Patts said:

 

All Governments in all democratic countries have said things that have turned out to be incorrect. Your companies logistics manager should be talking to his counterparts and know what items tariffs apply to as well as having a good idea of the procedure that will need to be followed in the event of "No Deal" as I am sure he/she deals with imports/exports to WTO member countries day in, day out. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-tariffs-from-1-january-2021

 

It's down to individual companies to know how they may be affected by Brexit and to have a plan of action to mitigate possible reductions in trade, but this should have all have been in place a long time ago. 

 

Our Brexit team are aware of the tariffs, the point I was trying to convey is do we actually incoportate them in particular on items with long leadtimes, we're assuming that we are going to have to get HC's for protein and diary based products but if we get a deal then what a huge waste of time. The Government should have had this sorted 6 months ago to allow companies to plan accordingly.

 

 

 

[englishoak]

3 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

Our Brexit team are aware of the tariffs, the point I was trying to convey is do we actually incoportate them in particular on items with long leadtimes, we're assuming that we are going to have to get HC's for protein and diary based products but if we get a deal then what a huge waste of time. The Government should have had this sorted 6 months ago to allow companies to plan accordingly.

 

 

 

There is no should have could have when it needs both sides to agree just as there are two sides on any negotiation. One side cant just wave a magic wand of any possible solution without the others consent or agreement. This is the nature of what a negotiation is, either side could have set a summer deadline or no deal to prepare for six months, neither did that.The EU could just give us what they said last year would be no problem, a Canada style deal but naaaaaaaaaa, it was lying as usual. 

 

The UK could have been out already and moved on but for EU sympathisers etc trying to stall and overturn the democratic result and wasting time so we now have the plague and a global downtrend to contend with too... well done those sympathisers for making things even more difficult.. 

 

 

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by englishoak