BREAKING: French woman on Koh Samui tests positive for COVID-19

[Somtamnication]

Soooooooo, there are infections not known by this government in Thailand?

 

[ukrules]

59 minutes ago, canopus1969 said:

Increase quarantine ro 3 weeks

She didn't catch it in quarantine, that much is obvious.

[AbeNormal]

8 minutes ago, themongoose said:

Its not a great surprise.

 

My partner just returned from the Rajabhat Graduation ceremony at Sakhon Nakhon last week. They tested everyone before entry into the ceremony hall and 10 people tested positive there.

 

really ?

 

how do you know this

 

as I understand it there is no accurate rapid test under 24hrs especially if testing lots of people at the same location all at once

[ukrules]

46 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

I have done enough reading from reputable sources, one of which showed the inventor of the PCR tests stating that they cannot detect Covid-19 on their own, any dead cells from past viruses would flag a positive result, so what do you make of that ?

Considering Kary Mullis died just over a year ago I find his recent statement surprising.

[AbeNormal]

3 minutes ago, Somtamnication said:

Soooooooo, there are infections not known by this government in Thailand?

 

didn't they stop reporting stats for viral pneumonia in Thailand because the rates were abnormally high at the start of the year and people were asking questions

 

also note they do not certify deaths properly in Thailand never mind test for cause

[themongoose]

6 minutes ago, AbeNormal said:

really ?

 

how do you know this

 

as I understand it there is no accurate rapid test under 24hrs especially if testing lots of people at the same location all at once

 

They told me everyone was swab tested early in the morning, and 10 people were denied entry into the ceremony based on the results. Whether the test is accurate or not is anyones guess.

 

Either the test is rushed and inaccurate, or there are cases in Thailand beyond the official "zero" figure (although very low).

 

My guess is probably a combination of both.

Edited October 23, 2020 by themongoose

[ukrules]

28 minutes ago, Jack Mountain said:

The Quarantine Procedure means that you are in the same group of people at the same location? or are there new arrivals coming during that 14 day period who can infect those who are about to leave? 

An interesting question because the lady in question is apparently a Thai with dual nationality.

 

I wonder which type of quarantine facility she was in....

Edited October 23, 2020 by ukrules

[ukrules]

13 minutes ago, Somtamnication said:

Soooooooo, there are infections not known by this government in Thailand?

 

The government are in a bit of a pickle here, either they admit that the quarantine system failed or they admit that COVID is on Samui

 

One or the other, there is no middle ground here.

Edited October 23, 2020 by ukrules

[Gulfsailor]

16 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Exactly. Irrelevant to this case.

 

Either:

 

1. This woman is one of the less than 1% of people in whom there is an incubation period of greater than 2 weeks (indeed, 3 weeks)

 

or

 

2. She somehow got infected while in quarantine

 

or

 

3. Show got infected after leaving quarantine  in which case the incubation was unusually short.

 

None of these 3 scenarios are probable but one of them must be the case.

3 is the least likely in my opinion. As you indicate, she would have been infected within days after leaving quarantine. 

 

2 difficult to assess the possibility without knowing the conditions of the quarantine. If she were allowed to mingle with other quarantine guests after the first 7 days, then that’s a possibility. 

 

1 If 1% has an incubation longer than 14 days and right now hundreds of people have tested positive while in quarantine, then that it’s certainly very possible a few cases will have slipped through by now. 

 

It would be most likely that she was infected on the plane flying into Thailand and was one of the 1% with a long incubation time. 

Either that or she had contact with someone inside quarantine who tested positive later. 

 

Maybe the quarantine conditions should be more flexible;

1 test: negative is allowed to fly and enter Thailand quarantine. 

2 start quarantine: if everyone from an arriving plane tests negative after 10 days, let them all out. Alternatively if anyone from that group tests positive after 10 days, it’s likely infection on the plane happened, and everyone from that group has to do another 10 days just to be safe.

 

And during quarantine one should prevent any contacts with other people in quarantine. 

[Enlil]

You guys should check PCR test false positives rate before you comment. 

[FritsSikkink]

27 minutes ago, themongoose said:

Its not a great surprise.

 

My partner just returned from the Rajabhat Graduation ceremony at Sakhon Nakhon last week. They tested everyone before entry into the ceremony hall and 10 people tested positive there.

 

Tested what? More likely took their temperature.

[onekoolguy]

You wonder if she got it from someone else in the quarantine hotel?

[Boomer6969]

51 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

That’s nonsense. 
 

That’s always the case with PCR tests, whether it’s Covid or Chlamydia. That’s why you don’t do a test of cure too close to an antimicrobial treatment, for example, as the body may still he flushing out dead cells (another reason is false negatives btw). 
 

You don’t just rely on one positive. You do confirmatory tests, which may include additional PCR Tests as well as x-Rays and looking at a patient‘s symptoms. 
 

PCR is super reliable and one of the best technologies available in modern diagnosis. There are infections that practically you can’t even detect without PCR. 
 

 

 

Is it? I've just head HSV1/HSV2 blood PCR tests, they cam back both negative which I find very hard to believe as I am absolutely certain I've head HSV1 since my early childhood, where there were always two or three kids with cold sores in the classroom.

I thought also that I was likely to test positive for HSV2, but not with any level of certainty.

[Jeffr2]

21 minutes ago, Somtamnication said:

Soooooooo, there are infections not known by this government in Thailand?

 

they've admitted this for a long time.  As has pretty much every other country in the world.

 

PCR tests are not 100% accurate.  And this virus is not 100% known.

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

So either the 14 day quarantine is a load of BS or Thailand isn't as secure as they lead us to believe...

 

both, but I would add a 3rd one.... their testing sucks 555

[Rimmer]

A conspiracy troll post has been removed

 

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[androokery]

1 hour ago, Ireland32 said:

28 days is better anything longer than 14 and he wants to do 10 day or nothing , Ridiculous 

It’s already 16 days. 

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, Ireland32 said:

Open next year it’s breaking out all over for Christ sake 

I couldn't confirm it but my neighbor and his Thai wife said Malaysia, Myanmar, Japan, India and some other countries here in SEA are reporting increase of infections, he didn't mention China as they don't report anything from there or if they report anything it's all fake news/numbers

[androokery]

31 minutes ago, Gulfsailor said:

3 is the least likely in my opinion. As you indicate, she would have been infected within days after leaving quarantine. 

 

2 difficult to assess the possibility without knowing the conditions of the quarantine. If she were allowed to mingle with other quarantine guests after the first 7 days, then that’s a possibility. 

 

1 If 1% has an incubation longer than 14 days and right now hundreds of people have tested positive while in quarantine, then that it’s certainly very possible a few cases will have slipped through by now. 

 

It would be most likely that she was infected on the plane flying into Thailand and was one of the 1% with a long incubation time. 

Either that or she had contact with someone inside quarantine who tested positive later. 

 

Maybe the quarantine conditions should be more flexible;

1 test: negative is allowed to fly and enter Thailand quarantine. 

2 start quarantine: if everyone from an arriving plane tests negative after 10 days, let them all out. Alternatively if anyone from that group tests positive after 10 days, it’s likely infection on the plane happened, and everyone from that group has to do another 10 days just to be safe.

 

And during quarantine one should prevent any contacts with other people in quarantine. 

You can’t really operate a quarantine hotel business on the rules you propose. 

[tribalfusion001]

Back on topic, Thailand tests 13,500 per 1,000,000 and Malaysia tests 59,000 per 1,000,000, Thailand has more than double the population of malaysia.

 

Clearly covid-19 is still floating around in Thailand but it must mild enough for people not to notice it anymore. What about the prisoner, they tested all of his contacts no one else had it. The original clusters in Bangkok back in March were mild cases, Thong Lor party and Lumpini boxing stadium.

[judokrab]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

I have done enough reading from reputable sources, one of which showed the inventor of the PCR tests stating that they cannot detect Covid-19 on their own, any dead cells from past viruses would flag a positive result, so what do you make of that ?

In that case you need to re-evaluate the meaning of "reliable sources" and/or work on your comprehension skills. The inventor of the PCR test could not have said that, because he died before this virus existed.

[Rimmer]

More conspiracy troll posts and replies removerd

[AlfHuy]

Didn't someone very smart mentioned this week the following:

if none of those ultra-rich-high-spenders who arrived 2 days ago, test positive, quarantine time can soon be lowered to 10 days ( for the special ones).

[AlfHuy]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

Not likely if she tested positive for COVID on 2 sequential tests.

 

They would nto be eager to announce this as COVID. It must be clear that it is.

 

The big question of course is where/how  she contacted it.

 

 

You will never know.

She is a lonely wolf. She go it from nobody and infected nobody.

Same as the Thai guy who was in prison.

Nobody talks about this anymore.

 

If you read what's going on in Europe: if there is a wedding or another party, suddenly everybody is positive.

[ourmanflint]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

She didn't catch it in quarantine, that much is obvious.

Have to disagree. It is far more obvious she caught it in quarantine, or at least while in Thailand, than here having an incubation time of 17-18 days plus

[metisdead]

Some more conspiracy troll posts have been removed.

[edwardandtubs]

28 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

Have to disagree. It is far more obvious she caught it in quarantine, or at least while in Thailand, than here having an incubation time of 17-18 days plus

I agree. Look at the farce that was Australian quarantine a while ago where people were actually catching it in the facilities and then spreading it when they got out. It seems obvious that if you have asymptomatic covid cases mixing with those not infected in the same hotel, the virus is going to spread and as the test isn't 100%, it's inevitable that eventually some cases are going to be released into the community.

Edited October 23, 2020 by edwardandtubs

[Cake Monster]

I m wondering if this is going to trigger the same kind of Paranoia we saw when that Egyptian " Soldier " went walkabout in Rayong.

I inclined to believe  at this Lady contracted the Covid Virus in Quarantine from a flawed procedure or a contaminated worker

Edited October 23, 2020 by Cake Monster

[edwardandtubs]

2 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I m wondering if this is going to trigger the same kind of Paranoia we saw when that Egyptian " Soldier " went walkabout in Rayong.

Oh yes. All the domestic tourists will abandon Samui and probably everyone on the island will be tested.

Edited October 23, 2020 by edwardandtubs

[Matzzon]

2 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

That's the "Covid free Thailand" up the Suwanee ! 

She may have caught it from an untested Thai.

And how do you explain that? Thai people go into quarantine 14 days and get tested.