Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country

[GroveHillWanderer]

On 11/28/2020 at 10:44 AM, AmySeeker said:

My family in Thailand couldn't get into Sweden as it's borders were closed. Alot of nonsense rubbish that it had no lockdown. 

 

If Sweden is classed as no lockdown, then so is the UK. My family flew straight to the UK, as it was open. Hell even heavily infected countries like India and Brazil could have passengers fly into the UK !!! Of course both are sheer lunacy., 

Having an internal lockdown within the country, and closing the borders to overseas visitors, are two completely different things.

[oldhippy]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

If it's achievable for measles, the odds are it's achievable for coronavirus.

QUOTE:

For some diseases, herd immunity can go into effect when 40 percent of the people in a population become immune to the disease, such as through vaccination. But in most cases, 80 to 95 percent of the population must be immune to the disease to stop its spread.

For example, 19 out of every 20 people must have the measles vaccination for herd immunity to go into effect and stop the disease.

SOURCE: healtline.com

[tgw]

On 11/14/2020 at 6:31 PM, placeholder said:

• Sweden's chief epidemiologist has admitted that the country is now experiencing a second wave of coronavirus despite predicting that the country's no-lockdown policy would prevent another surge.
• Tegnell had suggested that case numbers would be "quite low" in the autumn compared to other European countries which imposed lockdowns.
• However, the latest figures show Sweden is experiencing higher levels of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths than its neighbours, relative to population size.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-herd-immunity-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-hospitalisations-surge-2020-11

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

 

could all the posters who wrote self-opinionated, often rude posts about how Sweden was doing it right come to this thread please.

 

 

[mommysboy]

22 hours ago, farang51 said:

The thing is, he needs the vaccine even if he is young and healthy. Maybe not to protect himself but to protect others. We do not achieve herd immunity if only the old and weak gets the vaccine.

 

In Denmark, the government plan to first vaccinate the old, those with underlying health conditions, and the "front workers"; then, they will offer the vaccine to the young ones because they are the ones with most personal contacts and thus the ones that spread the virus.

 

Somewhere like Denmark has a real chance of achieving herd immunity through vaccination, because of it's relatively small size and population.  However it doesn't necessarily follow that India, for example, can do the same.  The mRNA vaccines are new/experimental.  I'm sure they will be great, but I don't think I am the only one who feels that caution is required before we jab everyone.

 

Firstly, I feel it is about preventing serious illness and death, which all 3 vaccines seem to do admirably.

[mommysboy]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

If it's achievable for measles, the odds are it's achievable for coronavirus.

 

Giving childhood vaccinations is different from adult programs. Also there was already a fair degree of naturally acquired immunity in adults- me and most of my friends had it as children and thus became immune.  It took a good few years to vanquish measles.  It is not known if any of the vaccines prevent onward transmission, although they must surely make a dent in my opinion.  

[placeholder]

 

22 hours ago, oldhippy said:

QUOTE:

For some diseases, herd immunity can go into effect when 40 percent of the people in a population become immune to the disease, such as through vaccination. But in most cases, 80 to 95 percent of the population must be immune to the disease to stop its spread.

For example, 19 out of every 20 people must have the measles vaccination for herd immunity to go into effect and stop the disease.

SOURCE: healtline.com

Measles has a much higher R(0) number than does Covid19. So naturally it's going to need a higher percentage of immunized adults to prevent its spread.

[ExpatOilWorker]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

Measles has a much higher R(0) number than does Covid19. So naturally it's going to need a higher percentage of immunized adults to prevent its spread.

I agree with you and I think we can take the Ro number for Covid-19 with an enormous grain of salt.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

 

[placeholder]

25 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

I agree with you and I think we can take the Ro number for Covid-19 with an enormous grain of salt.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

 

I've never seen such a high number for Covid-19 anywhere else. The usual number I see is around 3 if no measures are taken to constrain it. That's considerably lower than measles.

[farang51]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I've never seen such a high number for Covid-19 anywhere else. The usual number I see is around 3 if no measures are taken to constrain it.

The high number is due to a misunderstanding. If you go to the source quoted in Wikipedia it says:

 

“This virus is not like Influenza where one person can pass it on to two or three,” said Dr. Peter Pisters, president of MD Anderson Cancer Center. “This is a virus where one can pass it on to 70 or 80.”

Source: https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/11/19/texas-medical-center-top-health-leaders-warn-not-to-get-lax-with-the-covid-19-during-holidays/

 

Yes, one can pass it on to 70 or 80 but that is not the R0 number. Many do not pass it on or pass it on to fewer people; thus, the R0 is much lower. I agree with you, around 3 is what most sources say.

[oompie69]

On 11/15/2020 at 11:49 AM, placeholder said:

How do you explain this?

COVID-19 hospitalizations soar in lockdown-free Sweden amid second wave

Coronavirus hospitalizations are surging in lockdown-eschewing Sweden as the country grapples with a second wave of the virus, data shows.

There are currently 1,004 patients being treated for the virus in the Nordic nation’s hospitals — up 60 percent from the previous week’s 627, the Guardian reported.

“We consider the situation extremely serious,” Björn Eriksson, the director of healthcare for the Stockholm region, told state media.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/12/covid-19-hospitalizations-surging-in-sweden-amid-second-wave/

 

Ya think there's no correlation between hospitalizations and deaths?

Of course there is. However, the death rate should not be as high this time round as new treatment protocols should be in place now that more information is available about the nature of the disease and how to treat it. 

Early treatment protocols where intubation was the first choice directly lead to numerous deaths that could have been prevented.  

[placeholder]

Just now, oompie69 said:

Of course there is. However, the death rate should not be as high this time round as new treatment protocols should be in place now that more information is available about the nature of the disease and how to treat it. 

Early treatment protocols where intubation was the first choice directly lead to numerous deaths that could have been prevented.  

The death rate has definitely been lowered. And Sweden does have an excellent public health service and a well-educated population. Also, it is apparently the country with the highest rate of single person households. That helps.

[lkv]

6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

I agree with you and I think we can take the Ro number for Covid-19 with an enormous grain of salt.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

 

Not sure how that Wikipedia page loaded for you showing 70-80, but mine loads for COVID with an R0 between 2 and 6, so definitely less infectious than measles.

 

 

[farang51]

1 hour ago, lkv said:

Not sure how that Wikipedia page loaded for you showing 70-80.

Someone fixed the error a few hours ago, that's why you get the low number now. I guess the numbers for HIV/AIDS will be corrected too; the 2-5 is obviously not the correct R0 for HIV/AIDS

Edited December 2, 2020 by farang51

[balo]

117 new deaths in Sweden from Friday - Tuesday so around 25 deaths daily . 

Norway with 4 deaths in the same period. 


 

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, balo said:

117 new deaths in Sweden from Friday - Tuesday so around 25 deaths daily . 

Norway with 4 deaths in the same period. 


 

Well, Norway has about half as many people as does Sweden. So instead of the ration being 125 to 4, it's a mere 62.5 to 4 or about 16.5 to 1.

Edit: If those numbers are correct. I can't find anything like them.

Edited December 3, 2020 by placeholder

[balo]

Today 35 deaths reported in Sweden, yes the numbers are correct. They have a serious situation now. 
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/senaste-nytt-om-coronaviruset/

Translation :
OVER 7,000 DEAD IN COVID IN SWEDEN

Another 35 people have died with covid-19 in Sweden. To date, 7,007 people have died from coronavirus infection.   Around 250,000 people have been tested for covid this week.
- 13 percent of the samples are positive. That's a pretty high percentage. The risk of having covid when you get covid symptoms is quite high, says Anders Tegnell.

 

[mommysboy]

12 hours ago, balo said:

Today 35 deaths reported in Sweden, yes the numbers are correct. They have a serious situation now. 
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/senaste-nytt-om-coronaviruset/

Translation :
OVER 7,000 DEAD IN COVID IN SWEDEN

Another 35 people have died with covid-19 in Sweden. To date, 7,007 people have died from coronavirus infection.   Around 250,000 people have been tested for covid this week.
- 13 percent of the samples are positive. That's a pretty high percentage. The risk of having covid when you get covid symptoms is quite high, says Anders Tegnell.

 

 

It could be brought under control quite quickly by a month's lockdown, and then a country like Sweden can have vaccination done relatively quickly providing it chooses its vaccine wisely.