Baht hits seven-year high, could rise to 29.30 to the dollar next quarter

By THE NATION

 

 

The baht opened at 29.79 to the US dollar on Friday, strengthening from 29.84 at close on Thursday, the strongest in seven years.

 

The Thai currency is likely to move between 29.75 and 29.95, said Jitipol Puksamatanan, senior director of the chief investment office at SCB Securities.

 

On Wednesday night, the S&P 500 index rose by 6 per cent, the third consecutive day of gains. The risk-on situation in the market caused the Stoxx 600 index and the price of WTI crude oil and gold to increase in the range of 0.3 to 1.3 per cent.

 

In the US, the initial jobless claim announced this week was around 885,000 positions, the highest number in three months.

 

Meanwhile, Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, signalled that the Brexit issue between the UK and EU was hard to reach an agreement on, as the UK and the EU have different point of views.

 

In the financial markets, the risk-on state increased the Ten-Year Treasury yield by two basis points to 0.94 per cent. The dollar moreover weakened by 0.5 per cent, compared to other main currencies.

 

Jitipol said that the market situation was a factor behind the strengthening of the baht, in addition to investors’ concerns about the US placing Thailand on its monitoring list for currency manipulation.

 

He added that the baht in the next quarter would rise to Bt29.30 per US dollar.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30399805

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-12-18

 

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The Baht Is FAR to Strong for it's own Good !! Need BOT to Revalue !

8 minutes ago, Nong Khai Man said:

The Baht Is FAR to Strong for it's own Good !! Need BOT to Revalue !

 

Not according to USA. It should be much stronger. 

so I have 10.000 dollars to transfer... what do you guys think? wait?

Although it does sound apocalyptic, I think there is a real chance we will see the baht at 20-25 to the dollar, within the next five years or so. Perhaps sooner. The dollar is only going to get weaker. And Asia will continue it's ascent. The more irrelevant the West, and especially America gets, the more relevant Asia seems to become. How that will effect the pound sterling if anyone's guess. 

 

The chief investment officer of currency manager A.G. Bisset believes the U.S. currency will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade.

The greenback’s recent weakness “is the beginning of a very large move” that could hurt the droves of investors exposed to it through their holdings in U.S. stocks and bonds, Lindahl said. Wall Street is swarming with bearish dollar forecasts, though few are as extreme as Lindahl’s. The U.S. currency is near its lowest level in 27 months and is down about 11% from its 2020 peak against a basket of its peers, with Goldman Sachs, UBS and Societe Generale among the banks forecasting more losses.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-markets-dollar-analysis/u-s-dollars-woes-are-only-beginning-some-bears-say-idUSKBN25S3KN

 

U.S. stocks saw a historic rise in November, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.49%logging its biggest monthly rise since January 1987. The blue-chip gauge and the benchmark S&P 500 index SPX, +0.58% both saw their strongest November since 1928 as major indexes hit all-time highs. The greenback, meanwhile, got roughed up, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, 0.21%, a measure of the currency against six major rivals, falling 2.3%, its worst month since a 4.2% fall in July and its worst November since 2006. A weaker dollar is often — but not always — seen as supportive to equities. Exceptions arise, for example, when the dollar is tumbling because of fears over the U.S. economy.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-weak-dollar-and-a-strong-stock-market-are-likely-to-keep-going-hand-in-hand-11607033311

When comparing the THB to pennystock like USD and GBP, it will always look strong. 

The pound seems to be staying stable, albeit at a pretty low level (Brexit and all that), at least if my pension payments are anything to go by. If anything, they've increased slightly. Is this a peculiarly dollar thing?

1 hour ago, Lacrimas said:

so I have 10.000 dollars to transfer... what do you guys think? wait?

 

Depends on how long you can wait but short/medium term it looks like the headline will be correct.

10 minutes ago, nausea said:

The pound seems to be staying stable, albeit at a pretty low level (Brexit and all that), at least if my pension payments are anything to go by. If anything, they've increased slightly. Is this a peculiarly dollar thing?

 

Looks that way.

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Although it does sound apocalyptic, I think there is a real chance we will see the baht at 20-25 to the dollar, within the next five years or so. Perhaps sooner. The dollar is only going to get weaker. And Asia will continue it's ascent. The more irrelevant the West, and especially America gets, the more relevant Asia seems to become. How that will effect the pound sterling if anyone's guess. 

 

The chief investment officer of currency manager A.G. Bisset believes the U.S. currency will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade.

The greenback’s recent weakness “is the beginning of a very large move” that could hurt the droves of investors exposed to it through their holdings in U.S. stocks and bonds, Lindahl said. Wall Street is swarming with bearish dollar forecasts, though few are as extreme as Lindahl’s. The U.S. currency is near its lowest level in 27 months and is down about 11% from its 2020 peak against a basket of its peers, with Goldman Sachs, UBS and Societe Generale among the banks forecasting more losses.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-markets-dollar-analysis/u-s-dollars-woes-are-only-beginning-some-bears-say-idUSKBN25S3KN

 

U.S. stocks saw a historic rise in November, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.49%logging its biggest monthly rise since January 1987. The blue-chip gauge and the benchmark S&P 500 index SPX, +0.58% both saw their strongest November since 1928 as major indexes hit all-time highs. The greenback, meanwhile, got roughed up, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, 0.21%, a measure of the currency against six major rivals, falling 2.3%, its worst month since a 4.2% fall in July and its worst November since 2006. A weaker dollar is often — but not always — seen as supportive to equities. Exceptions arise, for example, when the dollar is tumbling because of fears over the U.S. economy.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-weak-dollar-and-a-strong-stock-market-are-likely-to-keep-going-hand-in-hand-11607033311

I bet that you have a job here, people like you have been saying this for a long time already yet it hasn't happened yet. Also, Thailand with its disaster of a government will be stronger than the US or Europe? doubtful 

32 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Depends on how long you can wait but short/medium term it looks like the headline will be correct.

meh it can stay there for years... I don't mind 

2 hours ago, Lacrimas said:

so I have 10.000 dollars to transfer... what do you guys think? wait?

 

Wait and forever lose your sleep

It's the only currency I have been involved with that thrives on the back of bad news authoritarian rule and corruption ????

I transfer money from the USA into a US$ account here in Thailand and convert it as needed or on a good exchange day.

4 minutes ago, dorayme said:

I transfer money from the USA into a US$ account here in Thailand and convert it as needed or on a good exchange day.

 

I guess you didn't have many exchanges in the last few years then. ????

Paypal have always been bad but today transfer dollar balance to Thai baht is 28.8 - yuk, it can stay there..lol

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Although it does sound apocalyptic, I think there is a real chance we will see the baht at 20-25 to the dollar, within the next five years or so. Perhaps sooner. The dollar is only going to get weaker. And Asia will continue it's ascent.

Yes, the Chinese plan to destroy the planets financial and economics system apart from their own has worked wonders

1 hour ago, Susco said:

1 hour ago, dorayme said:

I transfer money from the USA into a US$ account here in Thailand and convert it as needed or on a good exchange day.

 

I guess you didn't have many exchanges in the last few years then.

5555...yeah, how can one determine what is a "good exchange day"...?  It's not like the USD is 35 one day and 29 the next. 

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Yes, the Chinese plan to destroy the planets financial and economics system apart from their own has worked wonders

 

I really think you may be onto something with that line of thought. Think about how they have emerged from this, with what looks to be the highest rate of economic growth on the planet. And look at where the rest of the world is. I think (despite the official numbers) the US will be looking at around 8-12% negative growth this year, and Thailand as high as 12 to 15% negative growth. Again, the official numbers will look alot rosier than that. Believe them, at your own peril.

 

 

1 hour ago, CharlieH said:

Paypal have always been bad but today transfer dollar balance to Thai baht is 28.8 - yuk, it can stay there..lol

what a rip off. 

2 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

It's the only currency I have been involved with that thrives on the back of bad news authoritarian rule and corruption ????

You forgot to mention a devastated economy based on tourism.

Meh they are doing this on purpose. CP will be able to hire desperate people for 6000 baht a month

This should scare a few million tourists away, me for one.

Wait until the new administration pushes through multi-trillion dollar give away packages, trillions they will just print, and we will be seeing 20 Baht/$. That's what it was when I first came here in '70 but you could buy a whole lot more for 20 Baht than you can now.

The THB may be strong against the dollar, but remains relatively stable against the GBP. Has a few dips, but comes back to around 40 per GBP.

 

Says more about the dollar in my view, than the Baht.

 

Soothsayers abound. I was wish they would all shut the <deleted> up. They do nothing to help.

 

As for conspiracy theorists, wow. My thoughts in words would not be permitted here.

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Baht hits seven-year high, could rise to 29.30 to the dollar next quarter

Who's telling Porkies now? Just today Received transferred money from Aus to thailand and Yesterday was the Highest THB return  for an $ AU Since 2018 .  ????????

1 hour ago, Lacrimas said:

Meh they are doing this on purpose. CP will be able to hire desperate people for 6000 baht a month

Do you always post BS or is this an off day ????

China is selling some US Treasuries.  Up to 20%.  If USD falls, it will take down paired western currencies.

4 hours ago, Berkshire said:

5555...yeah, how can one determine what is a "good exchange day"...?  It's not like the USD is 35 one day and 29 the next. 

Expats here have an amazing ability to pick the highs and lows both in currency and stock. Makes me wonder how most end up In crappy fan rooms

 

its a mystery ????

Pretty simple: Thailand loses, Vietnam wins.  Vietnam pegged Dong to USD at a very competitive rate.