Thailand reports 427 new COVID-19 cases

[onebir]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Active case finding in migrant workers - 397

This seems to makes a mockery of the restrictions imposed on tourism.

[Cadan]

Terrible news for all of us especially tourism sector 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, jackdd said:

Why are "migrant workers" separated in the Thai government's statistics?

They always have been.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Locking down is a complete over-reaction unless numbers reach UK/US levels!  

Thanks for your insight Doc !

[sweatalot]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

new Covid-19 cases

to make it clear

the report is about people tested positive

not about people sick from covid 19  SARS

the overwhelming majority of those "positive" are NOT sick and will have NO symptoms

 

They should have written new covid-19 positive cases (x % are sick)

 

The wording causes fear among uninformed readers

I wonder  if there is any intention?

 

Anyway I feel very sorry for the Thai people and those from other nationalities living in Thailand. May they all be healthy and happy

Edited December 22, 2020 by sweatalot

[rabas]

37 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Maybe after the Christmas and New Year holidays...lockdown again over the next two weeks would be a real gut-punch to hotels salvaging anything from this year.

Understandable but starting after the national spreading holidays misses the point of a lockdown. Thailand's best future tourist draw may be touting the country that kept covid out. Blow the holidays and you may loose that.

[ronaldo0]

Look at all them dirty infected farang in that list !!  Oh wait erm oops ????????

[ronaldo0]

Look at all them dirty infected farang in that list !!  Oh wait erm oops ????????

[terryofcrete]

28 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

They always have been.

of course ! We like your cheap labour but you are an inferior species to us Thais.

[raccos21]

So what about those Thais who work with foreign workers are free from COVID-19!!??

[Megasin1]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

The point at which generalized lockdown becomes necessary is when trace/track/treat  no longer works, and that in turn is signalled by finding an increasing number of cases which cannot be explained/traced back to a known infection point.

 

At present it seems almost all cases can be traced back to the market in Samut Sokhon, and efforts are underway to trace and test everyone who went to that market and other contacts of all known positive cases. Fingers crossed this proved sufficient.

You could use that logic to state the same for a market in Wuhan, which also had a Government that tried to hide what was going on and spread mis-information. But Sheryl, you are wrong as Samut Sakon is obviously not the source of this infection, it is unfortunately just that to the Thai people it is a perfectly acceptable reason for which a more humane society would ask the right questions rather than trying to blame some migrant workers. It is certainly a sad, sad state of affairs when a Government adopts such a hostile, toxic approach to a problem and continues to endorse racist and xenophobic attitudes. If this is Thailand's' enduring legacy from Covid 19 then you have to seriously consider their right to be included in the world of tomorrow. Perhaps they should lock themselves and their borders away from the rest of the world, not for Covid, but for their lack of humanity and understanding, and not for just now, but until they are mature enough to actually join more decent societies.

[RickBradford]

46 minutes ago, sweatalot said:

the report is about people tested positive

not about people sick from covid 19  SARS

the overwhelming majority of those "positive" are NOT sick and will have NO symptoms

 

They should have written new covid-19 positive cases (x % are sick)

Plus, the PCR test is notoriously unreliable, and in some places has been shown to create infection clusters where none exist, as recently happened at Cambridge University in the UK.

 

A total of 30 students tested positive out of about 9000, they were sent for retest, and all were subsequently found to be negative. 

[sweatalot]

52 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

Plus, the PCR test is notoriously unreliable

that is true unfortunatly and not openly discussed. I did not mention this in my post because I wanted to stay with one thing

[RickBradford]

16 minutes ago, sweatalot said:

that is true unfortunatly and not openly discussed. I did not mention this in my post because I wanted to stay with one thing

It should be openly discussed. A 'false positive' PCR test rate of even 0.5% (1 in 200) will vastly overestimate the number of apparent positive cases, due to the way probability works.

 

For example, South Korea, the country which has done perhaps the most rigorous nationwide testing for Covid, reports a prevalence in the community of about 1 in 1000.

 

Now, if you take a PCR test and it comes back positive, what is the likelihood you actually have Covid? Most people answer "Well, if the false positive rate is 0.5%, then it is 99.5% sure I have Covid."

 

The actual chance you have Covid in that situation is 17%, a counter-intuitive result, for sure, but one that is well understood in medical circles.

 

Look at it this way. Take 1000 South Koreans, and test them using this PCR test. One actually has the disease (see above), but given the 1 in 200 false positive rate, another 5 will test positive.

 

So when you test positive, are you the 1 who is actually infected, or are you one of the 5 who falsely tested positive? It's a 1-in-6 chance, or 17%.

 

Actually, 0.5% is probably an underestimate of the false positive rate thrown up by PCR. One New York district showed a 3% failure rate.

 

So I am not very worried by Covid itself, but I am terrified of some government hobbledehoy with a PCR test in his medical bag ......

 

If you have the misfortune to test positive, demand a second test, preferably at a different location, to check the result. Most likely it will come back negative.

Edited December 22, 2020 by RickBradford

[shackleton]

If there are any lockdowns to come 

Can They  do  after Christmas day

i am due my shopping run on that day to top up with Chang ect 

[Nout]

6 hours ago, jackdd said:

Why are "migrant workers" separated in the Thai government's statistics?

Why not? They are neither Thai nor tourists. They are an identifiable social group of different nationalities, united by one factor, their work and immigration status. Singapore and other countries has also identified migrant workers as being susceptible to covid and other illnesses due to circumstances. Since when is stating a factual truth racist? Some people seem to seek offense where there is no offense often with the purpose of denigrating the Thai people.

[PGSan]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

United States of America - 3

I told you it was all the fault of these illegal immigrants!

[PGSan]

6 hours ago, jackdd said:

Why are "migrant workers" separated in the Thai government's statistics?

Why not separate them?  It is common practice in SE Asia to do this. 

They are easy to classify and, probably, to locate.

[PGSan]

6 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I cannot help but think that a large number of migrants having the virus does not reflect the small number of thais having it. These people eat, go 7/11. go markets and everywhere else. If large numbers of them have it, then I suspect more Thais have it than are being revealed

I do not follow: who goes to these places?

[PGSan]

5 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

only slowing down the spread

Is that not the whole point?  So it seems that lock-downs were useful.

[PGSan]

4 hours ago, EricTh said:

lockdown-ed

Love it!

[Megasin1]

15 minutes ago, Nout said:

Why not? They are neither Thai nor tourists. They are an identifiable social group of different nationalities, united by one factor, their work and immigration status. Singapore and other countries has also identified migrant workers as being susceptible to covid and other illnesses due to circumstances. Since when is stating a factual truth racist? Some people seem to seek offense where there is no offense often with the purpose of denigrating the Thai people.

an extremely naive view. You could just call it the market outbreak instead of constantly saying, local cases linked to the migrant outbreak etc. Maybe its TVF arranging the translations for click-bait and their own purposes, or maybe its Government propaganda and blame laying, so when it is all over the country its not their fault, or maybe, just maybe its pampering to the audience at their level? You can say that there is a certain correctness to breaking down figures into purely demographic areas, as Singapore has done, but there's more to it than that in Thailand.

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

Understandable but starting after the national spreading holidays misses the point of a lockdown. Thailand's best future tourist draw may be touting the country that kept covid out. Blow the holidays and you may loose that.

Yes that's the conundrum...thankfully Thailand is blessed in having such wise and able leaders to make these decisions on out behalf.

[PGSan]

4 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

But there simply are no other benefits

One such huge benefit is enough for me!

[PGSan]

4 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Yes, they can slow the spread

Which is exactly why they work.  What else do you expect/want to happen?  

[PGSan]

3 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I will hazard a guess and say that if they do not lockdown now it will be completely out of control after the holibobs. 

 

Let's see what happens. 

And happy holibobs to you too!

Edited December 22, 2020 by PGSan

[rabas]

1 hour ago, RickBradford said:

Plus, the PCR test is notoriously unreliable, and in some places has been shown to create infection clusters where none exist, as recently happened at Cambridge University in the UK.

 

A total of 30 students tested positive out of about 9000, they were sent for retest, and all were subsequently found to be negative. 

On retest, PCR has a 1 in 1000 chance of a false positive or better. Looks like the Cambridge test is already 1 in 300 on the first test so 1/10000 for retest.

 

This is known everywhere, which is why they retest.

[greg71]

According to Prayuts speech on Thai pbs he blamed the virus spike on the anti government protesters ????

[PGSan]

55 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

For example, South Korea, the country which has done perhaps the most rigorous nationwide testing for Covid, reports a prevalence in the community of about 1 in 1000.

Maybe they are astute enough to take the false positive rate into account when reporting this data.

Given your suggested data, I would assume that they reported  this figure because they actually found 6 per thousand positives.  

 

Crazy I know, but it is just this type of clever stuff that us numerate types get paid mega-bucks to do.

[phil2407]

Non from UK - that's amazing 2 of my friends from there  just arrived did the ASQ & all clear