New Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand still in early stages, expert warns

[natway09]

dinsdale

Whilst this Government has not got everything right I & I am sure others would object to you calling them "morons"

They have done a great job in keeping us safe to date & if directions had been obeyed we still would be.

If you are resident in this country maybe it is time for you to think about returning to a country that is not run by morons.

If you do not reside here then you have no idea of the complexity of the situation (Even Singapore had the same problems

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, Kaopad999 said:

I won't be hanging around here for long if it violently ravishes through the Kingdom 

Yes. Back to the US where everything is under control so much better.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, Patjqm said:

Apparently there are no covid deads, if low or mild symptoms, herd immunity could be reached by natural infection..

that's been proven false.  Sweden admits herd immunity can't be achieved naturally.

[bodga]

8 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

after 10 months of no magical infection in thailand, don't you think we might just all be positive ???

Nah, Im the most negative person I  know

[Patjqm]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

that's been proven false.  Sweden admits herd immunity can't be achieved naturally.

Not according this article from scientifists, published by the Lancet. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30555-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR0qAuGQhqT96RWah_DpYXyXQHrH3VCvXHxRDP0u0OcN30UFCXlHKjPDSeA

[rayw]

Sound common sense from this doctor IMHO.  Yes at last he implies that one of the vaccines available from abroad (hopefully Sputnik V as that is the one I personally most trust) may be available here very soon now, probably for those miost vulnerable to CV19 (must rightfully include long stay visa holding falangs who live here too as yes all live matter though non Thais should of course be willing to pay the reasonable low cost). 

 

Please see my post on this very issue in another thread here 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by rayw

[asiacurious]

10 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

after 10 months of no magical infection in thailand, don't you think we might just all be positive ???

 

Since far fewer than 100% of those tested are positive, I'd say that's a big... Nope!

 

10 hours ago, ftpjtm said:

So the solution is to forbid the distribution of the Pfizer vaccine in Thailand?

 

Apparently it can't be given to Thai front line workers because the Thai government wants them to wait for their less effective domestic alternative. 

 

Nope.  Didn't say that at all.  If the Pfizer vaccine can be secured, it should be distributed to front line workers first.  But the fact is the storage and distribution requirements make it very impractical for widespread use Thailand.

[asiacurious]

4 hours ago, Patjqm said:

Apparently there are no covid deads, if low or mild symptoms, herd immunity could be reached by natural infection..

 

3 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

that's been proven false.  Sweden admits herd immunity can't be achieved naturally.

 

1 hour ago, Patjqm said:

Not according this article from scientifists, published by the Lancet. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30555-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR0qAuGQhqT96RWah_DpYXyXQHrH3VCvXHxRDP0u0OcN30UFCXlHKjPDSeA

 

Your original statement that "herd immunity could be reached by natural infection" and followed up with your rebuttal ("Not according to this article....") to Jeffr2's assertion that what you wrote is false, may leave an impression that you've cited an article that backs up your claim.  

 

I clicked the link and read the article and it does not back you up.  It does not prove herd immunity works.  Rather, the article discusses two conflicting approaches to public health policy.  One approach (which you appear to support) is to use "focused protection" until herd immunity can be reached naturally.  The other approach, which you failed to mention and is also supported by thousands of experts, "described focused protection as 'a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence' and warned that 'uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population'. (emphasis added)

 

The article you linked to concludes in this way....

 

Kuldorff and colleagues reckon a focused protection approach would lead to herd immunity some time between 3 and 6 months, after which the vulnerable could return to normal life. Walensky retorts that the herd immunity point has not been established, nor is it clear how stable this immunity would be.  [SNIP] “I am not willing to stand behind a policy that leads to 10 or 15 times more deaths”, said Walensky. She would prefer to wait for herd immunity to be conferred by a vaccine. Most experts believe the earliest this could happen would be the second half of 2021. The debate over what to do in the interim looks set to continue.

[ftpjtm]

3 hours ago, asiacurious said:

If the Pfizer vaccine can be secured, it should be distributed to front line workers first.  But the fact is the storage and distribution requirements make it very impractical for widespread use Thailand.

I agree wholeheartedly. 

 

Unfortunately the Thai government does not. They won't even take the simple step of approving the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines for use in Thailand and are sending front line workers out without the protection their colleagues in the west are getting. 

 

And BTW while the Pfizer vaccine has rigorous storage requirements, the Moderna vaccine which has also been approved by most Western governments does not. 

[dinsdale]

16 hours ago, natway09 said:

dinsdale

Whilst this Government has not got everything right I & I am sure others would object to you calling them "morons"

They have done a great job in keeping us safe to date & if directions had been obeyed we still would be.

If you are resident in this country maybe it is time for you to think about returning to a country that is not run by morons.

If you do not reside here then you have no idea of the complexity of the situation (Even Singapore had the same problems

I do apologise. I see the error of my ways by calling them morons and that spending money on subs and going to the moon is more important than spending money on mass testing and transparency in reporting covid numbers helps protect the citizens of this country. I say this country because I have lived here 17 yrs and have a Thai family. 

[Patjqm]

18 hours ago, asiacurious said:

 

 

 

Your original statement that "herd immunity could be reached by natural infection" and followed up with your rebuttal ("Not according to this article....") to Jeffr2's assertion that what you wrote is false, may leave an impression that you've cited an article that backs up your claim.  

 

I clicked the link and read the article and it does not back you up.  It does not prove herd immunity works.  Rather, the article discusses two conflicting approaches to public health policy.  One approach (which you appear to support) is to use "focused protection" until herd immunity can be reached naturally.  The other approach, which you failed to mention and is also supported by thousands of experts, "described focused protection as 'a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence' and warned that 'uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population'. (emphasis added)

 

The article you linked to concludes in this way....

 

Kuldorff and colleagues reckon a focused protection approach would lead to herd immunity some time between 3 and 6 months, after which the vulnerable could return to normal life. Walensky retorts that the herd immunity point has not been established, nor is it clear how stable this immunity would be.  [SNIP] “I am not willing to stand behind a policy that leads to 10 or 15 times more deaths”, said Walensky. She would prefer to wait for herd immunity to be conferred by a vaccine. Most experts believe the earliest this could happen would be the second half of 2021. The debate over what to do in the interim looks set to continue.

I just wanted to show that even experts does not agree..... 

[berrec]

Re: The government also needs to hasten proactive search in the outbreak areas as quickly as possible, while private hospitals should lower testing price.

 

What a novel suggestion; private hospitals lowering their price on anything is just a pipedream unless their shortfall is covered by government funding.

 

They are in the business of making money.

 

If you can't measure it; you can't manage it......COVID ----testing, testing testing and more testing..........

[ftpjtm]

On 12/27/2020 at 10:24 PM, Natai Beach said:

The vaccines in the west have been rushed through due to thousands dying daily. 
Thailand doesn’t have that problem with only 3 deaths in the last six months.

 

So they will wait three months, let the desperate westerners be the guinea pigs, to see if there are any adverse consequences, before taking a very well tested vaccine themselves. 
 

Very smart the Thais. 

Except now they're buying 2M doses of the Sinovac vaccine that hasn't passed rushed phase 3 testing. 

 

Not so smart after all?