Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

[RJRS1301]

2 minutes ago, natway09 said:

And why is this going to happen ?

Because grubby Government servants in their stupidity took the bribes to allow these carriers to mingle amongst the generally unaffected population .without thought for the consequences.

Immigration police, Border patrols, Marine Department & possibly white collar workers must all have been in the mix. Heads should roll My Prayut & as they are your employees you need to GET ON IT

Evidence please for your assumption would be helpful, or you become a cultist conspiracy theory peddler

[Justgrazing]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

D - Distancing 

M - Mask Wearing 

H - Hand washing 

T - Testing 

T - Thai Cha-na

 

Nope I'm scrabbling to make anything outta that ..

[HashBrownHarry]

1 hour ago, JeffersLos said:

 

That's true.

 

The virus itself doesn't travel, the people that have it do. 

 

Stop travel, the spread stops.

Too late, everyone heading home for NY....no restrictions at all

 

[webfact]

Outbreak spreads to 45 provinces, could grow to ‘thousands of cases per day’

By The Nation

 

Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin

 

Thailand recorded 155 new cases of Covid-19 on Tuesday – 134 domestic infections, 10 in state quarantine, and 11 migrant workers – taking the total since January to 6,440.

 

The death toll increased by one to 61.

 

 

Infection zoning map shows the spread of Covid-19 over the past 11 days – Dec 18-20, Dec 21-23, Dec 24-26, and Dec 27-29 – in red zones (more than 51 cases), orange zones (11-50 cases), yellow zones (1-10 cases).

 

The latest outbreak has now spread to 45 provinces, said Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesperson of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA).

 

The Disease Control Department warned that cases could rise to 18,000 per day in the next two weeks if the outbreak went unchecked.

 

The department’s epidemiology working group calculated three possible scenarios.

 

Case prediction chart with red representing an uncontrolled situation where people do not follow rules, yellow representing moderate measures, and green strict measures with strong public cooperation.

 

First scenario (red line): If nothing is done, new cases will rise steadily until January 14 when infections reach 18,000 per day. The trend would start at 1,000-2,000 infections per day at New Year then grow steeply.

 

Second scenario (yellow line): If moderate measures are imposed, new cases will rise to reach 10,000 per day by mid-January.

 

Third scenario (green line): If strict measures are imposed and people maintain mask-wearing, hygiene and social distancing practices, cases will rise less than 1,000 per day.

 

"We are currently in an ‘orange line’ scenario,” said Taweesin. “I admit that I am worried because if the orange line goes up at 45 degrees, there will be thousands and thousands of infections.

 

"During the New Year holidays, people can travel anywhere except Samut Sakhon, which is under lockdown, but the 45 provinces with cases should have strong measures to monitor the virus. This New Year will be unusual. The threat of two- or three-digit daily infection rate has forced us to adapt to a new situation. Provinces don’t have to impose strict lockdowns, but all must adjust by tightening disease control measures,” he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30400425

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-12-29

 

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[ourmanflint]

Quote

Second scenario (yellow line): If moderate measures are imposed, new cases will rise to reach 10,000 per day by mid-January.

The line clearly says 4000  not 10000 as of 14th January

[JeffersLos]

8 minutes ago, webfact said:

Outbreak spreads to 45 provinces

 

Here we go. 

[PGSan]

2 hours ago, timendres said:

a running back

What is that, please?

[PGSan]

1 hour ago, Golden Triangle said:

to prevent Inter province

But do you even know when you leave Changwat Chonburi?  Or which parts of the Bangkok rapid transit system and buses enter neighboring Provinces?  

[Led Lolly Yellow Lolly]

2 hours ago, samtam said:

Could they specify "control measures"?

 

If you can imagine a scenario where things got so bad, and so out of control, and the daily Covid death rates got so high as as to compete with the daily death toll on the roads, control measures will just stop, life will return to normal and everyone will pretend there's no plomplem.

[PGSan]

1 hour ago, Walker88 said:

Sturgis

What is this, please?

[dave moir]

First time around only about 3,500 cases?

Now could be 1000 to 10,000 per day what's changed so much?????????????

[ukrules]

12 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

The line clearly says 4000  not 10000 as of 14th January

You assume moderate measures - they're doing nothing, so expect the worst - that would be the red line.

Edited December 29, 2020 by ukrules

[PGSan]

55 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

It would require an R number of at least 5.0 to get that figure so quickly

What is the initial value used for this calculation?  Do we know this figure?

[PGSan]

47 minutes ago, time2093 said:

a media frenzy country

What in earth might this be?  Please explain.

[PGSan]

39 minutes ago, natway09 said:

they are your employees

Who employs whom??? 

[2 is 1]

How TAT going to marketing Thailand now? Was covid free place before, now what is slogan?

"Come here and get it"!

 

[ftpjtm]

41 minutes ago, natway09 said:

. Heads should roll My Prayut & as they are your employees you need to GET ON IT

Expect more post changes. 

[jesimps]

At the start of the virus last March, the Thais did the right thing and stopped people from entering the country. Why don't they now stop inter-province travel to contain the spread of it? There'll be a huge amount of people on the move at New Year, people returning to their home province and more importantly for me, families coming on holiday to Pattaya.

[PEE TEE]

1 hour ago, JeffersLos said:

 

That's true.

 

The virus itselfThe virus itself doesn't travel doesn't travel, the people that have it do. 

 

Stop travel, the spread stops.

The virus itself doesn't travel. not yet what's to say the next mutation it becomes airborne ?

[rabas]

54 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

This figure does seem very unlikely, even impossible. It would require an R number of at least 5.0 to get that figure so quickly

 

Try it yourself with the Epidemic Calculator

 

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Maybe not so far off.  There is an easy way to figure using recent data.

 

All you need is a 30% rise in daily cases from 144 for 16 days until Jan 14. That comes to  9582 cases/day, which is not far from his middle estimate.

 

Dec 23 = 46 cases

Dec 29 = 155 cases

Up 109 cases in 6 days.

 

Cases/day graph from MOPH here

 

 

[spidermike007]

Arrest Dr. Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman for the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) immediately. Sentence him to hard time in prison for panic mongering and inciting the public. Take away his medical license permanently. With that level of irresponsibity, he should not be in the medical field.

 

The public are scared enough already. He is trying to whip them up into a frenzy. Or, is that the intention of this heinous administration? 

[spidermike007]

I have a simple question? Why was so much effort made to keep foreigners from entering the country, and so little effort made in keeping migrant workers from entering? 

[herfiehandbag]

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

The CCSA has shown that it's competent and capable of handling the situation, at least in the early stages of an outbreak, so why on earth isn't Prayut listening to them any more? We need doctors and scientists leading the response, not corrupt local politicians with all their business friends pressuring them not to shut anything down.

The " business friends" and the politicians they "own" are more organised this time, and are capable of bringing a lot of pressure to bear, together with no doubt substantial amounts of "influence".

[herfiehandbag]

16 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I have a simple question? Why was so much effort made to keep foreigners from entering the country, and so little effort made in keeping migrant workers from entering? 

Simple answer: follow the money.

Who ultimately owns the businesses which employ the migrant workers. What are their connections to and relationships ("influence") with those who make decisions.

 

As ever, it is the basis of how things are run. This has always had the potential ( at times realised) to harm the country; perhaps it is not too great an exaggeration to suggest in present circumstances, it has the potential to ruin the country.

Edited December 29, 2020 by herfiehandbag

[meltonpie]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

This figure does seem very unlikely, even impossible. It would require an R number of at least 5.0 to get that figure so quickly

 

Try it yourself with the Epidemic Calculator

 

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Interesting calculator, thank you.

 

I did try it myself and found that even with an R rate of 1.5 the figure of 18,000 per day seems quite possible.  Much depends on when day 0 is.  If day 0 was mid November the numbers change significantly when comparing to day 0 being now.

[ChrisKC]

20 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I have a simple question? Why was so much effort made to keep foreigners from entering the country, and so little effort made in keeping migrant workers from entering? 

Migrant workers are mainly foreigners, aren't they? Other foreigners don't cross the river or plough through the jungle to attain illegal entry. Much easier to assess them  in airports and other official borders.

[tomazbodner]

So basically between 10x and 200x current numbers in any case. If numbers do reach 18k/day, and with nearly nobody wearing a mask where I live I firmly believe this number is reachable, whole Thailand will be on total lockdown with all businesses closed before January is over.

[RJRS1301]

3 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

So basically between 10x and 200x current numbers in any case. If numbers do reach 18k/day, and with nearly nobody wearing a mask where I live I firmly believe this number is reachable, whole Thailand will be on total lockdown with all businesses closed before January is over.

What will the capacity, equipment, human and scientific resources be to cope  with this, then the ongoing residual effects of infection>?
 

[SupermarineS6B]

3 hours ago, samtam said:

Could they specify "control measures"?

 

3 hours ago, samtam said:

Could they specify "control measures"?

Run away and hide under the bed........  

Edited December 29, 2020 by SupermarineS6B

[PGSan]

39 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

Much depends on when day 0 is.

True, but (equivalently) it depends crucially on the initial value on day0.