What's happening to the Aussie dollar?

[Lacessit]

Not so long ago, when the AUD was battling to stay above 20 baht, the doomsayers were pointing to 17 or 18. It got back to 22, and in the last three days has risen above 23. As Professor Julius Sumner Miller used to say, why is this so?

Not that I am complaining, mind you.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Rising iron ore prices, Australia’s success in containing the novel coronavirus, global optimism with the advent of successful vaccines, and positive surprises around its economic recovery have fueled the Australian dollar’s rally.

“We do expect a solid recovery in 2021, with global growth forecasts at 5.2 per cent – led by the US and China,” Stephen Halmarick, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.

[scammed]

i see thb dropped a lot from june 20 to july 20 to my currency,

i think the loss of tourism is having a real effect,

and now i changed my mind, horray for corona and may it forever bless us,

it was worth going blind on my dominant eye from the damned mask

[UncleMhee]

It's risen against the USD to 77 cents, hence we get more baht. Caloo Callay, long may it continue.....

 

[mfd101]

59 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Rising iron ore prices, Australia’s success in containing the novel coronavirus, global optimism with the advent of successful vaccines, and positive surprises around its economic recovery have fueled the Australian dollar’s rally.

Yes, all of that. And, as I understand it [but I don't really understand the technicalities], Oz government bond buying by major international banks - consequent on huge Oz government stimulus spending - is also starting to drive up the Oz $. This will have negative consequences as interest rates start to rise in a year or 2, with further Oz dollar risings then, and huge repayments of debt still to follow at higher interest rates ... Being the Oz Treasurer over the next few years will be an interesting experience for Freudenberg, assuming he lasts.

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Not so long ago, when the AUD was battling to stay above 20 baht, the doomsayers were pointing to 17 or 18. It got back to 22, and in the last three days has risen above 23. As Professor Julius Sumner Miller used to say, why is this so?

Not that I am complaining, mind you.

The US dollar is going down....too much money printing. The Asian currencies exchange rates are much more tied to USD. The other factor is our main trading partner is not doing too bad, even with the trade issues Aussies are still selling a lot to them.

[Haveasay]

Dear Julius, fond memories, and think of his famous quote often here in Thailand! My fondest memories of aus dollar above 35 baht. Not that many years ago. Aus dollar below 30 baht, while USA in so much debt, but able to enjoy around 30 baht all that time. Not fair!!

[Peterw42]

Its a little know fact, but the Oz dollar is directly tied to my need to exchange Oz dollar for Baht. Its nothing to do with the US dollar, Oz bonds or the price of iron ore.

One month before I bring money over for anything, condo, car or immigration top-up, the Oz dollar will drop, one month after I buy a condo, car or top up account, the Oz dollar will rise.

If you want to know whats happening with the Oz dollar, send me a message and check if I am about to bring some money over.

[4MyEgo]

I would say that it's a good time to be transferring money if your so inclined as it's around 23 baht to the $ today.

 

The problem the Ozzies have is that the forces pushing the dollar higher are not necessarily going to support the wider economy.

 

The coronavirus vaccine will need to become widely available for a strong, sustainable economic recovery to take hold.

 

Also wouldn't hurt if the Reserve Bank directly, rather than indirectly, exerted downwards pressure on the dollar by actively selling its AUD reserves in the currency market.

 

We're not quite at that point yet, but then again this year has seen plenty of extraordinary policy moves, so keep your eye on that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lacessit]

6 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Its a little know fact, but the Oz dollar is directly tied to my need to exchange Oz dollar for Baht. Its nothing to do with the US dollar, Oz bonds or the price of iron ore.

One month before I bring money over for anything, condo, car or immigration top-up, the Oz dollar will drop, one month after I buy a condo, car or top up account, the Oz dollar will rise.

If you want to know whats happening with the Oz dollar, send me a message and check if I am about to bring some money over.

Funny about that, I have much the same experience in the Aussie sharemarket. Any share I buy drops after I buy it, any share I sell goes up afterwards. Perhaps we should exchange details.

[BritManToo]

Just now, Lacessit said:

Funny about that, I have much the same experience in the Aussie sharemarket. Any share I buy drops after I buy it, any share I sell goes up afterwards. Perhaps we should exchange details.

Don't worry ......

It was the same for me in the UK.

God hates us!

 

PS. Got 41 to the pound today .... Brexit finished, punishment over.

[Lacessit]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Don't worry ......

It was the same for me in the UK.

God hates us!

Not at all, God loves us. He just wants to keep us poor, so we don't fall prey to the sins of sloth, gluttony, and lust.

My apologies to those who think God is female, but that is a bridge too far for me.

Damn, lured off topic again.

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

My apologies to those who think God is female, but that is a bridge too far for me.

Maybe God is a ladyboy.  ????

[scammed]

16 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Its a little know fact, but the Oz dollar is directly tied to my need to exchange Oz dollar for Baht. Its nothing to do with the US dollar, Oz bonds or the price of iron ore.

One month before I bring money over for anything, condo, car or immigration top-up, the Oz dollar will drop, one month after I buy a condo, car or top up account, the Oz dollar will rise.

If you want to know whats happening with the Oz dollar, send me a message and check if I am about to bring some money over.

quantum entanglement, spooky action at a distance and no one know why or how

[allanos]

Movement in the USD is the main driver of other currencies' strength or weakness.  The dollar index (DXY) - which measures USD against a basket of other prominent currencies - is down around 10% in the past year.  Covid-19 effects on the US economy, and fiscal stimulus to the tune of trillions of dollars, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, and look set to continue to do so for many years to come.  A Biden-led Democrat government (a so-called Big Government of tax and spend) is tipped to print ever more money, eroding dollar buying power well into the future.

[natway09]

The Oze $ is looking pretty good at present due to their handling of the virus,

but will not last long as China stopping huge imports will bite once the world returns to normal (if that is possible)

When I first came to work in Thailand I was getting 14.9 Bht to the AUD. Thailand seems to always be very resiliant 

in the end so change it now

[Laza 45]

On 1/2/2021 at 12:29 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Rising iron ore prices, Australia’s success in containing the novel coronavirus, global optimism with the advent of successful vaccines, and positive surprises around its economic recovery have fueled the Australian dollar’s rally.

“We do expect a solid recovery in 2021, with global growth forecasts at 5.2 per cent – led by the US and China,” Stephen Halmarick, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.

I think all that is correct.. plus.. The huge stimulus in America is driving down bond rates ... bond rates in America are near 0 and expected to stay there for the foreseeable future.. .... Prime interest rate in America at the moment.. 3.25%.. Australia 5.24.. this difference makes Australia a better place to park money.. 

[tandor]

On 1/2/2021 at 12:54 PM, scammed said:

i see thb dropped a lot from june 20 to july 20 to my currency,

i think the loss of tourism is having a real effect,

and now i changed my mind, horray for corona and may it forever bless us,

it was worth going blind on my dominant eye from the damned mask

..your first two sentences were okay...then you went to pieces.

[scammed]

1 minute ago, tandor said:

..your first two sentences were okay...then you went to pieces.

the mask directed my exhale into my eyes, they got agitated

and then all of a sudden i got near blind on my left eye

[Seeall]

On 1/2/2021 at 2:16 PM, Peterw42 said:

Its a little know fact, but the Oz dollar is directly tied to my need to exchange Oz dollar for Baht. Its nothing to do with the US dollar, Oz bonds or the price of iron ore.

One month before I bring money over for anything, condo, car or immigration top-up, the Oz dollar will drop, one month after I buy a condo, car or top up account, the Oz dollar will rise.

If you want to know whats happening with the Oz dollar, send me a message and check if I am about to bring some money over.

ha ha good one.... but as you never know but will need... can monitor the chart and send when  better sure,,

 

[Leaver]

On 1/2/2021 at 12:29 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Rising iron ore prices, Australia’s success in containing the novel coronavirus, global optimism with the advent of successful vaccines, and positive surprises around its economic recovery have fueled the Australian dollar’s rally.

“We do expect a solid recovery in 2021, with global growth forecasts at 5.2 per cent – led by the US and China,” Stephen Halmarick, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.

 

Some of this will depend on the trade dispute between China and Australia, which is basically a political dispute. 

 

China could seek to make an example out of Australia for calling them out on the coronavirus.  Interesting times ahead.  

[Johnthplumb]

18 hours ago, Leaver said:

Maybe God is a ladyboy.  ????

Thats a thought, best of both worlds.

[Stevemercer]

The Australian dollar has stayed pretty constant. It's just that the US dollar is down, and the Baht moves in its own parallel universe in tandem with the US dollar.

 

As others have said, the spat with China could cause enormous problems for the Aussie if it blows up much further. China is, by far, Australia's largest trading partner account for nearly 30% of Australia's GDP.

 

Prime Minister Morrison needs to rope in his megaphone diplomacy and kow tow to China like the rest of Australia. The real reason China is <deleted> off is because of Australia's participation in America's freedom of navigation cruises in the South Pacific.

 

In my opinion, Morrison could offer an olive branch by saying Australia will no longer participate in these cruises unless specifically requested by an ASEAN country. That would quickly get relations back on track and the Aussie dollar would sky rocket on the back of the promise of normalised trade.

 

However, I'm not sure the Morrison Government will do anything that would push the Aussie up, even if it means hamstringing the Australian economy. The government's mantra is for a low dollar, just like the Thai government's mantra is for a high Baht.

 

I think if Morrison asked the question, what is to the greatest benefit to Australia and the Australian people (free trade or the prospect of compromised trade), he would have to prioritise normalising trade with China and not just paying lip service.

[PGSan]

On 1/2/2021 at 12:54 PM, scammed said:

from june 20 to july 20

Is this time period relevant? 

[PGSan]

On 1/2/2021 at 1:33 PM, mfd101 said:

at higher interest rates

 

why higher? 

[PGSan]

5 hours ago, allanos said:

Movement in the USD is the main driver of other currencies' strength or weakness.

But Only wrt the USD!   Maybe you mean ‘it is a common measure of ...’?

[PGSan]

1 hour ago, Stevemercer said:

would sky rocket

I thought that this is exactly what it is now doing?? 

[Skeptic7]

On 1/2/2021 at 2:16 AM, Peterw42 said:

Its a little know fact, but the Oz dollar is directly tied to my need to exchange Oz dollar for Baht. Its nothing to do with the US dollar, Oz bonds or the price of iron ore.

One month before I bring money over for anything, condo, car or immigration top-up, the Oz dollar will drop, one month after I buy a condo, car or top up account, the Oz dollar will rise.

If you want to know whats happening with the Oz dollar, send me a message and check if I am about to bring some money over.

Skeptic that I am...I concur! I have had the same exact effect on the USD since Tom Yum Goong...1997...and have bemoaned  this uncanny "coincidence" ever since. ????

[Mark1972]

15 hours ago, allanos said:

Movement in the USD is the main driver of other currencies' strength or weakness.  The dollar index (DXY) - which measures USD against a basket of other prominent currencies - is down around 10% in the past year.  Covid-19 effects on the US economy, and fiscal stimulus to the tune of trillions of dollars, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, and look set to continue to do so for many years to come.  A Biden-led Democrat government (a so-called Big Government of tax and spend) is tipped to print ever more money, eroding dollar buying power well into the future.

l do currency trading as my main form of income along with my army pension, what this guy is saying is spot on, the Dollar literally drives the markets, followed by the Euro. l only trade the Pound vs Dollar, there is alot of movement in this pair, so great for making money, but takes alot to study everything to do with politics and economics in both countries. Without going into all the factors that affect currencies, l would need a few pages and you would be asleep, but the Thai baht never made sense to me. In the UK during the Brexit negotiations, a  member  of the governemnt would say something to the press and the Pound could drop over one to two cents on the Dollar, which is a huge movement. In Thailand they had a military coup with tanks rolling through the streets of Bangkok, yet the Baht hardly moved !  Things like the preemptive restrictions placed on most of the districts in Thailand today will spook the markets, so this can influence the Aussie Dollar, not saying that has happened, because l don't study other currencies. l read online that tourism contributes to 12.5% of GDP in Thailand, l don't believe that figure, l think it is closer to 25-30%. The tourism industry has been devastated so how the Baht remains so strong is beyond me. Japan fixed the Yen artificially  low for years to be competitive for exports, l do feel Thailand in some way is not transparent on how it's currency remains so stable. Maybe someone with more knowledge than me could explain how the Baht works to me. The Pound rose between 3-4 cents on the Dollar over the past few weeks, after agreeing a post Brexit trade deal,  yet although l have not looked at the Baht vs Pound it still seems to be set around the 39.6 baht mark, when l first started coming to Thailand it was 78 baht to the Pound. One thing l will say, l have a house in the UK, but me and my 16 year old Thai daughter are about to move back to Bangkok, l rented a nice one bedroom apartment on Sukumhvit Soi 7 for 35,000 baht in 2001,  yet l am seeing 2 bed units in half decent areas starting at 15,000 Baht ! So even if your respective currency from your country has not risen much, on the street actual relative living costs have dropped dramatically due to Covid, l feel it will be 3 years before Thailand recovers to some where near pre Covid levels, if at all, so expat living in the country is a really attractive proposition. 

[Stevemercer]

21 hours ago, PGSan said:

I thought that this is exactly what it is now doing?? 

 

No, the US dollar is going down and taking the Baht (the Baht is partially tied to the US dollar) down with it.