Bitcoin or Gold?

[Tagged]

43 minutes ago, donnacha said:

That the people into crypto will do best is actually a fortunate result because, being younger and generally more intelligent / technologically aware, they will be better able to deploy, in effective ways, the money they gain. The boomer generation benefitted from the explosion of property prices in the 80's, 90's, and onwards. For the Internet generation, crypto is their version of that - a general shift that everyone is aware of and have plenty of time to benefit from if they want to. I respect that some people prefer to stick with the simplicity of what they already understand.

 

I have to dissagree, yet and still it have nothing to be intelligent, it have all to do with willing to take great risk and also luck. Some would dare to say pure luck. 

 

Im surprised no one see any problem with crypto taking over the money and value marked. Quite surprised actually, especially when the inventor of bitcoin is nowhere to be found. Still to many questions to be answered, and also if it will be completely accepted as an value and a future replacement for "fiat" money. 

 

Just ask yourselves, is it ethical that bitcoin going to outrule the old system, and let those behind who did not jump on it in time? And why should it be? 

[donnacha]

21 minutes ago, Tagged said:

I have to dissagree, yet and still it have nothing to be intelligent, it have all to do with willing to take great risk and also luck. Some would dare to say pure luck. 

No. The reasoning behind Bitcoin was clearly explained and widely discussed from the start. If an individual was interested in technology and new ideas, and spent more time reading than partying or watching soap operas, it is likely he would have known about and invested at least some money in Bitcoin.

Even today, as evidenced by this thread, some people have no idea what Bitcoin actually is and, unless they take the time to do real research, they will remain out of the loop. The ability to understand Bitcoin has everything to do with intelligence. People with the ability to think rationally are making better investment decisions than those stuck in old modes of thought.
 

21 minutes ago, Tagged said:

Im surprised no one see any problem with crypto taking over the money and value marked.

No one sees that problem because no one here thinks anything like that will happen.

 

21 minutes ago, Tagged said:

Just ask yourselves, is it ethical that bitcoin going to outrule the old system, and let those behind who did not jump on it in time? And why should it be?

Is it fair that Google overtook AltaVista, and allowed Google investors to make more money than AltaVista investors?

Is it fair that people who kept their savings in USD over the past 12 years retained more value than those who kept their savings in GBP or EUR?

Is it ethical that Irish guys get all the hot chicks?

Is life fair?

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by donnacha

[fdsa]

21 minutes ago, Tagged said:

Im surprised no one see any problem with crypto taking over the money and value marked. Quite surprised actually, especially when the inventor of bitcoin is nowhere to be found. Still to many questions to be answered, and also if it will be completely accepted as an value and a future replacement for "fiat" money. 

There are cryptocurrencies which inventors are known and public and which are much more suitable as a replacement for fiat money.

And no, I am not talking about Ethereum, which transaction fees (~20 USD!) is already 4x Bitcoin fees (<5 USD).

 

 

[Neeranam]

17 hours ago, Heng said:

Seriously though, there will be a better crypto eventually.   Just a handful of corporate players and look how sluggish the network is, look at all of those 2-5 hour transaction holds.   Will still enjoy the ride of course.  ????

Although Bitcoin is slow and has no utility, with the upcoming FLARE network it will be able to have a lot of utility/smart contracts, decentralized apps etc. For having XRP, I am getting free FLARE tokens which I think will be more valuable than my XRP. 

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, donnacha said:

2021 is the unicorn year

   My  Uniswap UNI has just become more valuable than my Bitcoin BTC

 

Regarding needing 5 million GBP to enjoy life -  My target with crypto is 1 million. I am getting on, 55, and this is more than enough to be able to travel/do what I want. I have a house already but would buy another one for 1/4 of that(10 million baht), leaving me 30 million baht to play with for the next 15 years+ (hopefully). when I'm 70, I doubt that I'll want to travel much and hope I will be happy living a quiet life. 

[Muzzique]

On 1/5/2021 at 4:03 AM, gyps said:

Hard to make large profits when one coin is $33,000. But, I had an opportunity at $9,000 a few months ago. Oh well!

 

I bought $4000 bitcoins end of 2019 when it was just below $3000 so it's done me proud. Over 15 times my investment in just under 18 months.

 

People are taking it more seriously now and the volatility is still there but not so severe. Still a lot riskier than gold though but I see people playing the lotto so up to you how you gamble. Just don't gamble what you can't afford to lose.

[Tagged]

There is many ethical reasons if you are interested to look in to them, but Im done with this discussion at it is very much alike discussing with people who have invested in a pyramid and they see it grows in to heaven. And as said, we, the rest of us, will wait for next train and maybe jump on later when things is a bit more clear. This is not google, it is not amazon or facebook, this is something different than the internet as well. We know how it went with the dot.com in the beginning, and Im old enough to have lived trough 3 recessions, and learned when something is to good, ,,,,,,,, 

 

in the meantime I just have to accept im beingstupidfied and getting funny emotions by those who is convincd ???? 

 

nothing is carved in the stoned yet, especially the future, and we only can learn from the history. If you see anything simular to google, facebook, apple, amazon or tesla, good luck. 

[donnacha]

30 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Regarding needing 5 million GBP to enjoy life -  My target with crypto is 1 million. I am getting on, 55, and this is more than enough to be able to travel/do what I want. I have a house already but would buy another one for 1/4 of that(10 million baht), leaving me 30 million baht to play with for the next 15 years+ (hopefully). when I'm 70, I doubt that I'll want to travel much and hope I will be happy living a quiet life. 

I realize how crazy it must sound but, even with a house already paid for, $1m is really not enough for one person. We know for sure that fiat currencies will devalue sharply over the next year or two, that is simply the natural consequence of extreme money-printing, so, don't fall into the easy trap of thinking that a million is a lot. It won't be.

You probably have another 40 years ahead of you, most of them healthy and active if medical science continues to improve. You may want to travel more than ever when you are 70 or, even, 80. As you age, there may be new medical treatments or assistive technology that you will want but that will be expensive. Aim to extract a few million more from this unique situation, there may not be many more opportunities like this.

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by donnacha

[1FinickyOne]

20 hours ago, ukrules said:

Sit back, relax and watch from the sidelines.....this is just getting started....

 

Yes there is, it's called 'Grayscale Bitcoin Trust', it's listed on OTCQX (GBTC), this is what you're looking for.

 

Thanks so much.. they also have an etf for ether too.. and perfect for me as I don't have to try and understand how to get my $$ in or out... 

 

If it goes over 50, my treat for lunch... [CM only] 

[taninthai]

7 minutes ago, donnacha said:

I realize how crazy it must sound but, even with a house already paid for, $1m is really not enough for one person. We know for sure that fiat currencies will devalue sharply over the next year or two, that is simply the natural consequence of extreme money-printing, so, don't fall into the easy trap of thinking that a million is a lot. It won't be.

You probably have another 40 years ahead of you, most of them healthy and active if medical science continues to improve. You may want to travel more than ever when you are 70 or, even, 80. As you age, there may be new medical treatments or assistive technology that you will want but that will be expensive. Aim to extract a few million more from this unique situation, there may not be many more opportunities like this.

 

We are talking 1 million gbp ...we are in Thailand ..equals 40 million bht I think that would do me and I’m only 48...if someone sitting on 28 bitcoins and not cashing any out at this stage is pretty foolish 

[Neeranam]

27 minutes ago, donnacha said:

You may want to travel more than ever when you are 70 or, even, 80. Aim to extract a few million more from this unique situation, there may not be many more opportunities like this.

Obviously, I will try to get maximum gain but it is never achieved. It is becoming a bit stressful, even now, when I see my initial investment at x20ish, and I've been investing at least half my salary every month for the last 3 years+. I am all in, 90% of my liquid assets are in crypto. I've started taking profits from altcoins(5%) but now the question is, where do I put it? Bitcoin or gold or leave it in the bank? ???? It does feel nice and secure in the bank but....

I've got my eye on a nice piece of land on Koh Chang, maybe that is a good way to use my crypto profits.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Neeranam

[1FinickyOne]

39 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

when I'm 70, I doubt that I'll want to travel much

Yes. Things change... including hopes and dreams and ability... I did so much travelling in my life that I am surprising happy to stay home... no desire to enter that long tube and be launched into the skies again... and thus, it became more important to have a paradise home setting.. 

[1FinickyOne]

12 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

It is becoming a bit stressful, even now,

This is the thing w/investing/trading... somehow, you always end up kicking yourself... if it goes down, you should have sold, if it goes up, you should have bought more... 

 

The individual aspect of investing is equally important and why most people don't invest... the personal aspect takes into consideration how much time you want to invest in learning and how much risk do you want to take... when you start losing sleep, that becomes a factor... a challenge for me as USA markets open around my bedtime.. 

 

but, be thankful.. you seem to have done quite well... and you have encouraged me to buy in, in my own way... through ETF... which UKRules guided me too.. so, if you are passing through CM ever, my treat for a lunch out... and I will show you what 70 can look like.. 

[ukrules]

7 hours ago, Gumballl said:

Just to make things clear, crypto currency is oftentimes (not always) worth zilch, unless converted into real money.

 

I've had various amount of Bitcoin since about 2012 and at no time could I not sell them for a non zero price, not once, ever - so they do contain value and you're talking complete and utter nonsense.

 

[Neeranam]

12 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

I've had various amount of Bitcoin since about 2012 and at no time could I not sell them for a non zero price, not once, ever - so they do contain value and you're talking complete and utter nonsense.

 

Hear hear.

 

It's becoming irresponsible now for investment managers NOT advise buying bitcoin, yet I think some are out of pure stubbornness. 

This is the first new asset class since the 1600s and not going away, like I said in my first post, I think Bitcoin is going to overtake the gold market. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Neeranam

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

   My  Uniswap UNI has just become more valuable than my Bitcoin BTC

 

Regarding needing 5 million GBP to enjoy life -  My target with crypto is 1 million. I am getting on, 55, and this is more than enough to be able to travel/do what I want. I have a house already but would buy another one for 1/4 of that(10 million baht), leaving me 30 million baht to play with for the next 15 years+ (hopefully). when I'm 70, I doubt that I'll want to travel much and hope I will be happy living a quiet life. 

 

The thing is - you never need to sell it all. Sell what you need and keep the rest. This is my plan.

 

I once sold about 200 Bitcoin and bought a car, I kept the rest.

 

Unless I expect the market to completely crash then I would continue to hold. If I expect it to crash then I would dump it and wait (I've done this a fair few times and been wrong and ended up with less coins so it is risky business)  - but always with the goal of repurchasing and riding the next wave up.

 

I've done this a few times over the years, I missed the first couple of inflation/collapse events but I got in after the collapse from $32 down to $1, I figured it was dead at that point but when it went back up to about $10 I acted.

 

I had been watching it for some time back then and it was not so easy to buy in back in those early days but that all changed in January 2013 and things started to become much easier.

 

[donnacha]

6 hours ago, ukrules said:

I once sold about 200 Bitcoin and bought a car, I kept the rest.

Expensive car ????
 

6 hours ago, ukrules said:

I've done this a few times over the years, I missed the first couple of inflation/collapse events but I got in after the collapse from $32 down to $1, I figured it was dead at that point but when it went back up to about $10 I acted.

 

I had been watching it for some time back then and it was not so easy to buy in back in those early days but that all changed in January 2013 and things started to become much easier.

Those first few years were shaky due to lack of awareness of Bitcoin and the barriers to actually buying it. The Mt Gox collapse also stunted growth for a while.

I believe that what we're watching now is a feedback loop between mainstream awareness, ever-increasing ease-of-purchase as companies such as PayPal and Revolut productize it, and mainstream credibility via the institutional investors. Bitcoin is now entrenched and, while the price may remain volatile on a day-to-day basis, I don't see how the value trajectory of such a limited resource can be anything other than up. It will inevitably stablize and growth will slow at some point, but its current momentum will continue for at least the next couple of years as the after-effects of the global lockdown filter through into politics, taxation, and inflation.

 

[donnacha]

11 hours ago, taninthai said:

We are talking 1 million gbp ...we are in Thailand ..equals 40 million bht I think that would do me and I’m only 48...if someone sitting on 28 bitcoins and not cashing any out at this stage is pretty foolish 

It's interesting, I see it completely the other way around.

The logic that made Bitcoin a good bet a year ago not only still applies but has now been confirmed by the continued growth. Events are playing out more-or-less as we expected, although we learned a lot during the stock market crash last year.

The fundamental hypothesis - that political pressure will continue to cause governments to print money and flood the asset markets with cash - is still clearly playing out and will continue to do so until some sort of major readjustment in the next few years. That is what the institutional investors are now using Bitcoin to hedge against.

If operating according to the logic of "Bail out as soon as you make a profit", no one would keep any investment for more than a few months. This is why a small investor class continue to amass wealth while ordinary Joes are satisfied with insignificant wins. This is also why retail investors panic and sell their stocks during crashes while the professional investors see crashes as a buying opportunity.

Unless literally short of food, no one should be selling their Bitcoins now, this is exactly the situation that it was designed for.

Also, if you are only 48, a million quid is nowhere near enough to retire on. Life will be getting far more expensive. Political turbulence may mean you have to move country several times.

There will also be many more worthwhile things to spend money on over the coming decades, including medical technologies that will prolong and increase the quality of your life. We are on the cusp of great leaps forward in gene therapy, nano-robotics, AI-driven robo-surgery, assistive devices, 24/7 AI-driven analysis of your physical condition, artificial organs, far more targeted therapies etc, but most of that stuff will be very expensive and not covered by your current insurance or national health services.

 

[Neeranam]

16 hours ago, ukrules said:

The thing is - you never need to sell it all. Sell what you need and keep the rest. This is my plan.

Thanks for the advice.

 

I was greedy in Dec17, when I had bought a lot of XRP. I had just taken out a car loan for 4 years. I could have sold 70% of my XRP and paid for the car in cash but as the car is 0% finance, I decided to keep this asset. May still be the right decision but it's been a long wait. Alt coins seem to act differently to Bitcoin, they go up by the stairs and down by the elevator.

[Sametboy2019]

How about this Ethereum? 

Anybody invested?

[Neeranam]

15 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

How about this Ethereum? 

Anybody invested?

Yes, I believe it is going to $3,000+ by the end of the month and possibly $10k in six months. 

[steve73]

Gresham's Law applies here... "Good money drives out bad money."

 

Although I only have less than one bitcoin equivalent in total in a range of "Alts", I will be hodling and using my fiat assets before they are inflated away even more. 

 

It's a REAL pity we can't hold the 800k THB for the retirement "visa" in Bitcoins.  I initially deposited that in 2011 for my first extension when BTC was c. $0.30, so would have given me c. 80,000 BC.  It would now be "worth" around 80 billion THB.  555 

[Neeranam]

10 hours ago, donnacha said:

Also, if you are only 48, a million quid is nowhere near enough to retire on. Life will be getting far more expensive. Political turbulence may mean you have to move country several times.

 

A million quid is enough to retire in Thailand, that could be invested to get 3 million baht a year. 

 

Do you mean foreigners could get kicked out of Thailand?

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by Neeranam

[Susco]

11 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

 

A million quid is enough to retire in Thailand, that could be invested to get 3 million baht a year. 

 

Why settle for only 10% guaranteed ( according to you ) return on investment, if you can get much more than that.

 

 

[karunasup]

very misleading binary question.

Invest over what period of time, what is risk profile, and what % of investment funds is this sum?

[fdsa]

2 hours ago, Sametboy2019 said:

How about this Ethereum? 

Anybody invested?

 

A nice technology which could stay long. However...

 

2 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Yes, I believe it is going to $3,000+ by the end of the month and possibly $10k in six months. 

 

high price is killing Ethereum network. Single transaction fee is close to 20 USD already,  smart contracts and "<deleted>swap" coins transaction fees get close to 50 USD.

If Ethereum price will stay on this level or even rise more it could kill the smart contract industry because they will become too expensive.

 

[donnacha]

15 hours ago, Neeranam said:

A million quid is enough to retire in Thailand, that could be invested to get 3 million baht a year. 

You could probably retire on a tenth of that if willing to live in a quiet, minimalist way, but the guy is only 48, probably only halfway through his life. He is not one of these guys who kept working until 65 and is already half-dead anyway. They can get by on far less.

He could end up wanting to travel, he might meet a girl, he might have kids, he could be involved in a car accident and have to pay substantial damages. He might develop interests that require money, including new treatments for prolonging and increasing quality of life. Again, life is only going to get more expensive.

Thinking you can just stick a £1m in some form of investment and have that smoothly continue returning 8% per year for half a century, safe, unaffected by new taxes or currency exchange rates is foolhardy. Don't forget, also, the value of your principal will be continuously whittled away by inflation. We are in for wild inflation over the next few years. When I estimate that Bitcoin will hit $220k by the end of this year, bear in mind that each of those dollars will be worth significantly less than your dollars are today.

GBP £1m could be a nice booster for your retirement, giving you a cushion while you continue to work at least part-time, or gain revenue from additional sources, but I stand by my estimate of USD $5m (GBP £3.6m) if you want to have a more active retirement with a bigger margin for error and hopefully no need to work ever again.

 

15 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Do you mean foreigners could get kicked out of Thailand?

Not actually kicked but it is likely that future Thai governments will continue making life here more difficult for Westerners, particularly as they become increasingly integrated with China.

The cost of living, arguably one of the main reasons why most of us started visiting Thailand in the first place, is likely to continue increasing. Overall, normal life (not involving hookers) is already cheaper in Spain, Portugal, Bulgaria etc. Alcohol, in particular, is likely to become far more expensive as successive unelected governments continue scrambling to gain a moral high-ground. 

An economic collapse or widespread unemployment, all too possible as manufacturing and many forms of low-skill labor such as driving become automated, could lead high levels of crime, with the "rich" farangs being disproportionately targeted.

Desperation for revenue could cause government departments to start squeezing more money out of retirees, sparking a "voluntary" exodus.

Another real possibility is civil war. When it finally comes it is likely to be catastrophic. Some expats might decide to tough it out but most would leave and hope to return in better times.

A future pandemic could be blamed on foreigners, making life more awkward and possibly less safe.

Worsening 2.5 p.m. air pollution, already a major problem for half the year in the North, is likely to lead to far higher insurance premiums or a refusal to cover respiratory problems, lung cancer, and anything else they can attribute to air pollution. This could be be a tipping-point factor for many retirees.

So, no, I wouldn't bet on being able to simply buy a house and remain here to peacefully live out your remaining half-century.
 

[ukrules]

13 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Thinking you can just stick a £1m in some form of investment and have that smoothly continue returning 8% per year for half a century, safe, unaffected by new taxes or currency exchange rates is foolhardy.

 

I would suggest leaving as much of it as possible in Bitcoin which often has a larger return than 8%. Why move it?

 

[donnacha]

2 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

I would suggest leaving as much of it as possible in Bitcoin which often has a larger return than 8%. Why move it?

Totally agree.

It surprises me but some people simply cannot resist cashing out as soon as they see a profit. My brother did it after just a week in Bitcoin, bought in at 32k and sold at 37k a few days ago. He was delighted to have made a quick profit and could not process my argument that he should just leave it in there until the end of the year to gain far more. He could not stand the thought that the profit he had just made might slip away, so, he cashed out. Idiot ????
 

[donnacha]

17 hours ago, Sametboy2019 said:

How about this Ethereum? 

Anybody invested?

I have a few hundred, simply as a store of value, no interest in using them for transactions. I suspect the vast majority are used that way.

Some days Ethereum gains more value but most days Bitcoin outperforms it.

My hypothesis is that, in terms of actual value, the technical features of Ethereum do not matter at all. The increasing value will be entirely down to more people and companies needing a good place to put their money. Ethereum will capture the interest of some but the vast majority will go for the big brand, Bitcoin.
 

So, my own bet is almost entirely Bitcoin, with just a few Etherium as a whimsical side-bet.

Again, anyone approaching crypto as an investment should understand that the value of any coin is based not on high-tech features or supposed functionality, but on how many people are already familiar with it and how long it has been around. If the Eurozone crashes or taxes massively increase, families will be evacuating their savings via Bitcoin, not some alt-coin nonsense. Executives in corporations and investment funds will also be embracing Bitcoin rather than, say, Dogecoin, because a well-known coin is less likely to get them fired.