Cautious optimism as number of new COVID-19 cases in Thailand declines for fourth consecutive day

[DavisH]

19 minutes ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

ah, they STOPPED testing again

If you bothered to do some research, testing has NOT stopped. You sound like a Trump supporter. 

[ThailandRyan]

35 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

 

When the problem is MORE than 1000 times worse in the country you came from, and you carry on about daily, it makes you appear that you have other “issues”. 
 

A bit like someone from Alaska coming to live in Thailand and then complain daily that it isn’t warm enough here. 

 

And as @sandyf states it is a global problem, which your country is considerably contributing to at about 25% compared to Thailand’s less than a quarter of 1%. 
 

 

 

You and SandyF have lost the plot my dear boy.  Go along and enjoy your confused and condescending behavior elsewhere.  No more to discuss as you seem incapable if staying on topic and OP

Edited January 9, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[NoshowJones]

10 hours ago, sdweller said:

A lot of negativity on this forum...many scared people!   The Thai people care about this, and seem to be following guidelines to stop the spread...and if this is true, it generally works!  In places like America, many simply WILL NOT wear a mask, let alone follow any other guideline, so the numbers aren't and won't be getting better.  So cheer up...it IS possible that Thailand CAN get this under control.  

Yes, if they get properly educated people running the country and not an unelected "PM" and a bunch of soldiers.

[Natai Beach]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

You and SandyF have list the plot my dear boy.  Go along and enjoy your confused and condescending behavior elsewhere.  No more to discuss as you seem incapable if staying on topic and OP

Yes dear.

 

Reading you previous posts you like comparing Thailand to your country when you feel you are doing something better than them and question why the Thais can’t do it the same. 
 

However when it doesn’t suit your narrative and Thailand is obviously outperforming, as in this case by 1000+fold, it does seem to grate. 
 

I am hoping the numbers are decreasing in Thailand.

I am not sure you are hoping for the same. It seems like you would prefer to be “proven right”.

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

Yes dear.

 

Reading you previous posts you like comparing Thailand to your country when you feel you are doing something better than them and question why the Thais can’t do it the same. 
 

However when it doesn’t suit your narrative and Thailand is obviously outperforming, as in this case by 1000+fold, it does seem to grate. 
 

I am hoping the numbers are decreasing in Thailand.

I am not sure you are hoping for the same. It seems like you would prefer to be “proven right”.

Lol, so funny

[Cake Monster]

19 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I think I would have politely asked for the floor supervisor and informed them.

Not good for this nurse especially in that environment.

In such a situation, as a Foreigner, I would be called a Trouble maker Etc. " our Country - we do what we want " attitude.

I have previous experience of such things, and stay well clear now

For a Thai to do so  - no problem

[jomtienisgood]

15 hours ago, Jingthing said:

It would be weird NOT to wear one!

It will be the new fashionable trend... and absorbs bad breath and perspiration. 5555555

[foreverlomsak]

22 hours ago, overherebc said:

Lots of mask wearing and it's starting to get hotter again.

But no social distancing, should only see one in that picture.

[John Maxida]

67 deaths are a completely objective reason to put on masks and create visa problems for foreigners

[AmySeeker]

Horrific figures. It's all down hill from now on. 

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Funny how the health experts say numbers should be going up but officially they're going down.

With the R0 of 2.48 (1) in Thailand and  with 279 new cases on Jan 1 you would expect 1,715 new cases now: https://theconversation.com/covid-19-when-are-you-most-infectious-150760#:~:text=According to a recent study,days of their symptom onset. Scroll to graph and note an infected person is most infections about day 4 into infection. So 4 days is the infection period when that infected person is most likely to infect 2.48 people (R0) . So in the 8 days there have been 2 infection periods.

The R0 is the base and infection periods is the exponent. So 2.48^2= 6.15. That is multiplied by infections on Jan 1. 6.15x279= 1715 new infections expected today. (1) R0 reference: The reproductive index from SEIR model of covid 19 epidemic in ASEAN ( Thai authors)  Simple example showing R0^infection periods equals new infections. Take R0 of 2 with three infection periods. 1st period 2 infections, 2nd period 4 infections,3rd period 8 infections. 2^3=8

[rabas]

55 minutes ago, John Maxida said:

67 deaths are a completely objective reason to put on masks and create visa problems for foreigners

Another one who believes a pandemic is somehow a stationary object.

[berton]

3 hours ago, possum1931 said:

Yes, if they get properly educated people running the country and not an unelected "PM" and a bunch of soldiers.

do you have a problem with democracy? last elections were last year...you were sleeping 1 year?

how many soldiers in the governement please?

for thai people it's not a question of education but they are afraid with ghosts , ani microbes, virus...anythings that they dont see (look their thai dramas ????)

[NoshowJones]

OK! Sorry, ex soldiers. What problem do I have with democracy? If I don't like any laws, I just try and find a way round them. I love my freedom and to hell with any laws that are detrimental to ordinary people.

[hottrader77]

On 1/8/2021 at 1:08 PM, RotBenz8888 said:

And wearing mask on the chin. 

they are still drinking alcohol in restraunts 

 

[Grusa]

19 hours ago, Nout said:

Your last paragraph is completely untrue and might just reflect the people you know. I have found Thais to be fastidious and very hygiene aware. They even take their shoes of before entering houses and rooms. Thais often regard Europeans as dirty, untidy and unkempt. I am appalled at the shambling, dirty, stained unkempt farang men and women wandering around Pattaya. They appear to be wearing the clothes cast out by charity shops. Even the poorest Thais, with few clothes are notably smart and well presented.

I am in no way suggesting that the Thai are anything other than personally fastidious. What I am saying is that they - not all, mind you - have no basic education in such matters so do not appreciate the "why" of it, or the "how" of disease transmission. In the same way they know nothing of nutrition and as a nation are becoming obese and diabetic, both totally avoidable.

 

I agree about the unwashed farang, but I suspect that ignorance is not the cause, but indolence.

[Nout]

On 1/8/2021 at 2:24 PM, mommysboy said:

 

Social distancing is the main factor. I'm sure masks help a bit.

 

If masks were that good, then there would be no need for social distancing, quarantine, etc, would there?

If masks were not effective, doctors, nurses, surgeons and other medical staff would eschew them. Yes, I said eschew.

[Nout]

5 minutes ago, Grusa said:

I am in no way suggesting that the Thai are anything other than personally fastidious. What I am saying is that they - not all, mind you - have no basic education in such matters so do not appreciate the "why" of it, or the "how" of disease transmission. In the same way they know nothing of nutrition and as a nation are becoming obese and diabetic, both totally avoidable.

 

I agree about the unwashed farang, but I suspect that ignorance is not the cause, but indolence.

I think that ignorance is more excusable than insolence. Back in the UK homeless beggars dress better than some of these old foreigners. It is not possible to look smart with Khaki grease stained cargo 'pants' and rubber flip flops combined with singlet vest. They need rounding up, hosing down and shaved.

[Grusa]

1 minute ago, Nout said:

I think that ignorance is more excusable than insolence. Back in the UK homeless beggars dress better than some of these old foreigners. It is not possible to look smart with Khaki grease stained cargo 'pants' and rubber flip flops combined with singlet vest. They need rounding up, hosing down and shaved.

Did you misread, or are you making a new point? I wrote indolence (laziness) not insolence (contempt). 

If a new point....I agree!

[berton]

1 hour ago, possum1931 said:

OK! Sorry, ex soldiers. What problem do I have with democracy? If I don't like any laws, I just try and find a way round them. I love my freedom and to hell with any laws that are detrimental to ordinary people.

and how many ex-soldiers in this governement? tell me?

 

Good news for everybody if number of case start to stabilize or decline...most of argue is that , if they don't have any health education, they have natural food (fruits, seafood, chicken and pork running in farms) ...but start to change with american garbage food  and they start to put a lot of sugar in many plates . Diabete appears even in countryside.

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

You and SandyF have lost the plot my dear boy.  Go along and enjoy your confused and condescending behavior elsewhere.  No more to discuss as you seem incapable if staying on topic and OP

If you say your height is six foot, you are comparing it to the standard measurement of one foot and claiming it to be six fold.

When it comes to covid cases the unit of measure is the number per one million of population and in a global environment the global average would be the benchmark which sits at No 97 in the global table with Thailand down at No 200. The US and UK sit at No 7 and No 27 respectively

Being in that position should be applauded but when it comes to the Thai government, their position in the global table means nothing, your unit of measure is whatever derogatory perception comes to mind first.

[RPCVguy]

I came across this bit of news today. It is further confirmation that the infection rate of the virus does drop as daily temperatures rise. Current case rate values are a consequence of holiday travel (and testing/ lack thereof) BUT by early February we should start to see temperatures helping to reduce the transmission of the virus. Being a La Nina year, the rainy season is also likely to begin early, with the rain also helping.

 

The news is located in this post http://berkeleyearth.org/colder-weather-and-increasing-coronavirus-covid-19-spread/

"Recently, a systematic review of 17 research papers concluded that temperature and humidity were likely to have an effect on COVID-19 disease transmission, though the evidence remained of low quality, and the effect was likely of less importance than other variations in human behavior (e.g. group gatherings, mask-wearing). The evidence supported a view that COVID-19 spreads somewhat less rapidly in warm, wet environments.

 

"Another possible environment change during cold weather is a reduction in sunlight and ultraviolet radiation. Similar to temperature, we find that R values increased from 1.0 to 1.2 coincident with declines in sunlight or ultraviolet (UV) exposure." This data SHOULD help all people in the tropics, but many work indoors and lose the benefit. Even outdoor workers cover up so much as to not get the UV not get the Vitamin D that is getting recognition as a key vitamin for boosting immunity.

[Mai mee]

4 hours ago, Nout said:

I think that ignorance is more excusable than insolence. Back in the UK homeless beggars dress better than some of these old foreigners. It is not possible to look smart with Khaki grease stained cargo 'pants' and rubber flip flops combined with singlet vest. They need rounding up, hosing down and shaved.

Well clearly, based on your post, you're the man for the job. We'll get you a uniform, a wash bucket, and a razor. You can start right away.

 

Please submit weekly reports on your progress.

[DavisH]

9 hours ago, AmySeeker said:

Horrific figures. It's all down hill from now on. 

Well, based on the data so far, the positivity rate has declined from about 5% to about 2.3% over the past 7 days.

My calculations, based on daily data provided at 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php?fbclid=IwAR0z6KVnHMHL8qImlTGsVIBcoS3C0wi4eKnrOBmj5tSuhvbHZFYv10x9A1o

 

That is, the relative number of positive cases is decreasing, which is a good sign. The number of cases, or the number of tests alone, don't tell us much. So we look at the ratio of positive cases to the number of tests. FYI there were 12778 tests on the 7th and 305 positive cases. 305/12778 x 100 = 2.4%

[DavisH]

9 hours ago, John Maxida said:

67 deaths are a completely objective reason to put on masks and create visa problems for foreigners

What visa problems? Just renewed mine for the 20th time last year. No problems. Farangs here seem to make their own problems and deflect to blame Thais and the country. That's bad play.

[stuandjulie]

6 hours ago, Grusa said:

I am in no way suggesting that the Thai are anything other than personally fastidious. What I am saying is that they - not all, mind you - have no basic education in such matters so do not appreciate the "why" of it, or the "how" of disease transmission. In the same way they know nothing of nutrition and as a nation are becoming obese and diabetic, both totally avoidable.

 

I agree about the unwashed farang, but I suspect that ignorance is not the cause, but indolence.

Got to say, I thought Thailand was quite clean but when I returned to the UK after 13 years I couldn't help but notice how much cleaner the UK was, even the air was fresher ! 

[overherebc]

On 1/8/2021 at 1:01 PM, overherebc said:

Lots of mask wearing and it's starting to get hotter again.

To all who are confused.

Viruses don't like heat or strong UV. Their life span on a hot surface in the sunshine is very short. Cool weather kepts them happy and alive.

Edited January 9, 2021 by overherebc

[pookondee]

19 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

It would be weird to think like that.

Its interesting the way the mindset of fear has seemingly changed peoples mentality for good.

You can even see it here. Even just the poster you replied to. They kinda remind me of my mother.

Sad world!

[Petey11]

On 1/8/2021 at 12:55 PM, Caldera said:

The fat lady hasn't sung yet, as nobody knows how much of a spread fest the New Year's holiday was. Let's see in 1-2 weeks.

 

Possibly same as April, within 3-4 days of starting restrictions the daily figures plummeted, proudly credited by the government due to their swift actions , defying all logic  and pattern of how viruses spread through a population. As you say, we shall see where it stands in a couple of weeks, maybe defying the laws of nature again.

[morrobay]

On 1/8/2021 at 7:55 PM, Caldera said:

The fat lady hasn't sung yet, as nobody knows how much of a spread fest the New Year's holiday was. Let's see in 1-2 weeks.

 

Should know that sooner than later if there is enough testing: from Harvard Medical School.  ' Typically symptoms appear within 5 days of infection. And most contagious 2 days before symptoms. So about four days after infection is likely the infection period. Then  by 16 January there would be about 4 infection periods. With R0 of 2 .48 that is 2.48^4 = 37.8 new infections from one person. So the New Year total would be 37.8 times how many were infected on New Years celebrations. https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus#:~:text=We know that a person,they start to experience symptoms.