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Testing to be intensified in Samut Sakhon to bring outbreak under control by Feb 15


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Testing to be intensified in Samut Sakhon to bring outbreak under control by Feb 15

By The Nation

 

800_5501a7f22d58f26.jpg?v=1611481450

The Covid testing is carried out in Samut Sakhon province on Dec 20.

 

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) has said that its proactive testing operations in Samut Sakhon province last week had led to 70,000 people being tested of whom 5,332 were found to be infected.

 

CCSA assistant spokeswoman Dr Apisamai Srirangsan said proactive testing in Samut Sakhon had been intensified since January 19.

 

Testing in this manner will lead to clearly dividing Samut Sakhon into green (clear), yellow (slightly infected) and red (highly infected) areas.

 

Seven per cent of those who were tested were found to be infected, Apisamai said, adding, this could help predict the number of cases next week and enable preparation for treatment such as hospitals, field hospitals and quarantine facilities. Initially, all places are ready to take care of treatment of Covid-19 patients

 

"I would like to ask for cooperation from the public sector in Samut Sakhon. There will be more aggressive testing to create more green areas.

 

It would also help plan for reduction of shutdown measures, allowing communities, educational institutions and various places to operate.

 

If all parties help each other, the outbreak in Samut Sakhon would be under control in two weeks, or by February 15.

 

Apisamai called for cooperation in all areas as intensive scrutiny is required from January 25 to 31 to ensure the numbers go down.

 

The assistant spokesperson encouraged people to follow healthy practices so that the government could relax lockdowns in many areas.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30401732

 

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2021-01-25
 
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2 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

If all parties help each other, the outbreak in Samut Sakhon would be under control in two weeks, or by February 15.

 

Apisamai called for cooperation in all areas as intensive scrutiny is required from January 25 to 31 to ensure the numbers go down.

 

How about intensifying testing in the other 75 provinces?

 

Oh wait, the goal is to declare Thailand covid free by February 15, because only Samut Sakhon has infections

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I’m not sure if more testing will bring the situation under more control, it will just bring more panic as more cases are found. 

 

It's possible the virus has spread through Thailand. Its possible (and there are papers which suggest) that East Asians have a genetic advantage and are impacted to a far lesser degree to Covid-19 than other races. 

 

Thus: Covid-19 me be more prevalent than Thailand thinks and simply testing more means more cases, means more response, more lockdown, more panic etc.

 

That said: If the ‘genetic theory’ does hold and Covid-19 has spread through Thailand already there would be a lot of elderly expats who’ve suffered & died etc, it seems this is not the case. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I’m not sure if more testing will bring the situation under more control, it will just bring more panic as more cases are found. 

 

So better live in denial, right?

 

10 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

That said: If the ‘genetic theory’ does hold and Covid-19 has spread through Thailand already there would be a lot of elderly expats who’ve suffered & died etc, it seems this is not the case. 

 

Why you think the deaths would affect a lot of expats?

 

The UK has a similar population as Thailand, though much more concentrated.About 100K have died.

 

In Thailand that population is spread over a much larger area, and the current expat population is really minimal.

 

If you apply the average worldwide mortality rate to expats still in Thailand, nobody would notice

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55 minutes ago, webfact said:

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) has said that its proactive testing operations in Samut Sakhon province last week had led to 70,000 people being tested of whom 5,332 were found to be infected.

5332/7 would be about an average 750 a day. Last time Thailand recorded over 700 was on Jan 4th according to Worldometers. So exactly where do these approx missing 3000 postive people show up as being recorded ? Or am I missing something ? So, if they found 5000 in a week and not reported 3000 of them in one area, it shows just how bogus Thailand reported numbers are ? 

Either that or the reporter is confused.

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29 minutes ago, Susco said:

So better live in denial, right?

 

You’re putting words where I didn’t. You said that. I didn’t.

 

Currently he UK tests about 400,000 people per day. The Lancet has reported that there could be 4% false positives from Covid-19 RT PCR testing which means of the UK results there could be 16,000 false positives - testing into a panic. 

The true metric to measure the impact of Covid-19 would be to record Positive Cases with Symptoms, Hospital Admissions. 

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, Susco said:

Why you think the deaths would affect a lot of expats?

 

The UK has a similar population as Thailand, though much more concentrated.About 100K have died.

 

In Thailand that population is spread over a much larger area, and the current expat population is really minimal.

 

If you apply the average worldwide mortality rate to expats still in Thailand, nobody would notice

 

There are a lot of ‘older expects in Thailand’ IF what I wrote about East Asians having a genetic advantage that means they do not suffer the impact of Covid-19 compared to other races and Covid-19 actually has spread through Thailand already (i.e. Nov, Dec '19 and Jan, Feb '20) we would expect to see or hear of some Covid-19 related deaths in the exact community - we haven’t. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

5332/7 would be about an average 750 a day. Last time Thailand recorded over 700 was on Jan 4th according to Worldometers. So exactly where do these approx missing 3000 postive people show up as being recorded ? Or am I missing something ? So, if they found 5000 in a week and not reported 3000 of them in one area, it shows just how bogus Thailand reported numbers are ? 

Either that or the reporter is confused.

Maybe all the positive tests occurred yesterday and will appear in today's update.

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I never understand people who seem to think testing people is not a good idea.

Most of the worlds doctors and scientists seem to think it is.

Why would you not want to know how many people are infected?

Much better to have a clear picture of what is going on in reality, rather than stick your head in the sand and hope for the best.

I'm one for knowing what the <deleted> is going on and dealing with it......not denying reality.

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As often is the case, the article is poorly translated from the Thai original (from the Nation's sister publication Krungthep Thurakit). What the good doctor actually said was that between 19-24 Jan there had been about 9,000 tests conducted in Samut Sakhon as part of the active case finding drive: the total number of tests to date [doesn't say since when) was 70,000 of which 5,332 were positive.

 

วันนี้  (24 ม.ค.2564) ที่ทำเนียบรัฐบาล พญ.อภิสมัย ศรีรังสรรค์ ผู้ช่วยโฆษกศูนย์บริหารสถานการณ์การแพร่ระบาดของโรคติดเชื้อไวรัสโคโรนา 2019 (โควิด-19)(ศบค.) กล่าวว่าขณะนี้ในส่วนของสมุทรสาคร มีการค้นหาเชิงรุกตั้งแต่วันที่ 19 ม.ค.2564 ซึ่งมีการตรวจประมาณ 9000 กว่าราย และวันนี้ 24 ม.ค.2564 ผ่านไป 5 วัน มีตัวเลขที่ตรวจไปแล้ว70,000 ราย ทำให้ขณะนี้พบว่า มีผู้ติดเชื้อ 5,332 ราย 

 

That's about 7.6% positive. Even allowing for false positives that is a large percentage. It also suggests that the number of tests per day may have been around 2,000-2,500 at most in Samut Sakhon (assuming testing for about a month now).

 

Of course these are in some ways meaningless statistics because there's no breakdown of who was tested, although it appears from news reports to have focused on migrant workers. If I was in charge of testing in Samut Sakhon I think I'd test everyone going to a hospital or clinic; all staff at convenience stores (high footfall, often small and nicely enclosed, cash tendered for many transactions); and motorcycle taxi drivers.

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5 hours ago, webfact said:

CCSA assistant spokeswoman Dr Apisamai Srirangsan said proactive testing in Samut Sakhon had been intensified since January 19.

Proactive testing was the only way to go... re-active would have meant 100% infection rate.

But get the all clear by the 15th and open up for Chinese New Year... spread the love again just like Xmas & New years eve.

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5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:
5 hours ago, Susco said:

So better live in denial, right?

 

You’re putting words where I didn’t. You said that. I didn’t.

 

I didn't put words in your mouth, and I'm sure you know the meaning of a question mark at the end of a sentence

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As I have said in other posts and will keep saying I do not believe the Government’s figures.

Covid is a disease that is exponential in its nature due to the incubation period that people are unaware they have it for up to 2 weeks whilst spreading the disease.

it is in Thailand now and it is too late.

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9 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Thailand. Its possible (and there are papers which suggest) that East Asians have a genetic advantage and are impacted to a far lesser degree to Covid-19 than other races. 

This sentence cries out for a reference.

 

Do you have one?

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Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2

Date: 13 January 2021                                                                      

WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2

Target audience: laboratory professionals and users of IVDs.

Purpose of this notice: clarify information previously provided by WHO. This notice supersedes WHO Information Notice for In Vitro Diagnostic Medical Device (IVD) Users 2020/05 version 1, issued 14 December 2020.

Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.  

Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.

WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

 

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

 

This testing "thing" is a tricky one

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11 hours ago, webfact said:

Seven per cent of those who were tested were found to be infected

That's a very high number, especially when you consider the testing numbers are so low.

 

Why do they keep dishing out arbitrary numbers for things? TAT do it every month with their "tourists will spend 1.5 trillion baht this year / 10 million tourists will arrive this year" No evidence at all to back it up. "We'll have it under control at the end of Jan / 15th Feb".

 

Again, no evidence, just throwing it out there and seeing what sticks to the wall. A good method to see if your pasta is cooked, but not very practical under any other circumstance.

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9 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

As often is the case, the article is poorly translated from the Thai original (from the Nation's sister publication Krungthep Thurakit). What the good doctor actually said was that between 19-24 Jan there had been about 9,000 tests conducted in Samut Sakhon as part of the active case finding drive: the total number of tests to date [doesn't say since when) was 70,000 of which 5,332 were positive.

 

วันนี้  (24 ม.ค.2564) ที่ทำเนียบรัฐบาล พญ.อภิสมัย ศรีรังสรรค์ ผู้ช่วยโฆษกศูนย์บริหารสถานการณ์การแพร่ระบาดของโรคติดเชื้อไวรัสโคโรนา 2019 (โควิด-19)(ศบค.) กล่าวว่าขณะนี้ในส่วนของสมุทรสาคร มีการค้นหาเชิงรุกตั้งแต่วันที่ 19 ม.ค.2564 ซึ่งมีการตรวจประมาณ 9000 กว่าราย และวันนี้ 24 ม.ค.2564 ผ่านไป 5 วัน มีตัวเลขที่ตรวจไปแล้ว70,000 ราย ทำให้ขณะนี้พบว่า มีผู้ติดเชื้อ 5,332 ราย 

 

That's about 7.6% positive. Even allowing for false positives that is a large percentage. It also suggests that the number of tests per day may have been around 2,000-2,500 at most in Samut Sakhon (assuming testing for about a month now).

 

Of course these are in some ways meaningless statistics because there's no breakdown of who was tested, although it appears from news reports to have focused on migrant workers. If I was in charge of testing in Samut Sakhon I think I'd test everyone going to a hospital or clinic; all staff at convenience stores (high footfall, often small and nicely enclosed, cash tendered for many transactions); and motorcycle taxi drivers.

Couldn't blame foreigners then though, too many Thais would show up in the numbers.

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'...Seven per cent of those who were tested were found to be infected, Apisamai said....' for a test that has been proven on average to be 93% inaccurate as per the BMJ (British Medical Journal), so every 100 only 7 tested positive? So maths dictates all are negative...?

 

So exactly how is testing the cure?

So exactly how is a vaccine that doesn't work as according the BMJ (British Medical Journal) going to save Thailand?

Do lockdowns work? CDC and WHO say NO but that idiot in the UK who combs his hair with a balloon says yes!

 

The only place to go is Brazil, Thailand is dead in the water like all those Chinese in Pattaya... no one cares...

 

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19 hours ago, pikao said:

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2

Date: 13 January 2021                                                                      

WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2

Target audience: laboratory professionals and users of IVDs.

Purpose of this notice: clarify information previously provided by WHO. This notice supersedes WHO Information Notice for In Vitro Diagnostic Medical Device (IVD) Users 2020/05 version 1, issued 14 December 2020.

Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.  

Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.

WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

 

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

 

This testing "thing" is a tricky one

"political" science.  All this was what was originally announced, even by Fauci himself publicly, before the organization made him retract it.  They are now just going back to it.  

They have also dramatically cut down the pcr from 45 to 30 which has retroactively cut down true number of infected exponentially, including deaths with covid present (not by covid), numbers that are rarely discussed when being used for manipulation.

This is a disease which has been politically weaponized against citizens for sweeping wealth accumulation and political control.  (not Thai specific here).

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