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U.S. COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations log biggest weekly drops since pandemic started


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U.S. COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations log biggest weekly drops since pandemic started

 

2021-02-08T192406Z_2_LYNXMPEH171GA_RTROPTP_4_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA-TRENDS.JPG

FILE PHOTO: A pedestrian walks during a snow storm, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City, New York, U.S., February 1, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

 

(Reuters) - The United States reported a 25% drop in new cases of COVID-19 to about 825,000 last week, the biggest fall since the pandemic started, although health officials said they were worried new variants of the virus could slow or reverse this progress.

 

New cases of the virus have now fallen for four weeks in a row to the lowest level since early November, according to a Reuters analysis of state and county reports. The steepest drop was in California, where cases in the week ended Feb. 7 fell 48%. Only Oregon, Puerto Rico, Arkansas and Vermont saw cases rise. (Open https://tmsnrt.rs/2WTOZDR in an external browser to see a state-by-state graphic.)

 

At least three new variants of the novel coronavirus are circulating in the United States, including the UK variant B.1.1.7 that is 30% to 40% more contagious, according to researchers.

 

U.S. health experts on Monday said COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations were down sharply in recent weeks, but that the variant first detected in the U.K. and now spreading stateside could reverse that trend without continued adherence to protocols and rapid vaccination of the public. Lisa Bernhard produced this report.

 

"I'm asking everyone to please keep your guard up," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday. "The continued proliferation of variants remains a great concern and is a threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we are seeing."

 

The average number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals fell by 15% to 88,000 last week, also a record percentage drop, according to a Reuters analysis of data from the volunteer-run COVID Tracking Project. It was the lowest average number in hospitals since late November.

 

Death fell 2.5% last week to 22,193. Excluding a backlog of deaths reported by Indiana, fatalities were down 9.5% last week. Deaths are a lagging indicator and usually fall several weeks after cases and hospitalizations drop.

 

Cumulatively, nearly 464,000 people have died from the virus in the United States, or one in every 704 residents.

 

Nationally, 7.3% of tests of tests came back positive for the virus, down from 8.5% the prior week, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project.

 

Graphic: GRAPHIC-COVID-19 global tracker: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/

 

(Graphic by Chris Canipe, writing by Lisa Shumaker, editing by Tiffany Wu)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-02-09
 

 

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1 hour ago, Mike Rodik said:

are we forgetting the WHO now demands to PCR test labs to set cycle 35x instead of 42x / 45x

Well, whatever sensitivity the WHO thinks is best for tests, it's hospitalization and mortality that provide the a better picture of the status of the pandemic.

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Here's another look at the Reuters data, based on DAILY U.S. new case counts using the prior 7 day daily averages, and then single day tallies in the two charts below.

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-states/

United States

"45% of peak and falling

 

COVID-19 infections are decreasing in United States, with 111,623 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 45% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on January 8.

 

There have been 27,166,640 infections and 465,440 coronavirus-related deaths reported in the country since the pandemic began."

 

The charts below each show two different sets of numbers -- the gray spikes show the single day new case totals, while the yellow lines show the smoothed out prior 7-day average daily totals. The Jan. 8 and Feb. 8 new case numbers shown are single day tallies.

 

PEAK:

Screenshot_1.jpg.85d3cc55d1a61e29e7e624d472ba4148.jpg

 

NOW:

Screenshot_2.jpg.c1efd1c6b5a7195c4be02053655232cd.jpg

 

 

And then daily deaths:

Screenshot_3.jpg.74f92e7fb4ac491979210b99b73ccb9e.jpg

 

 

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The U.S. is still (quietly?) averaging more than 3,000 COVID deaths per day...each and every day... though the death numbers that had been steadily rising since October finally seem to have plateaued as of mid-January, though they remain even now close to all-time high levels. Deaths are generally considered a lagging indicator of other trends like new cases and hospitalizations, meaning the death numbers should soon start to trend downward along with the new case counts.

 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths

 

Screenshot_4.jpg.ce6bf247880cb6646804f8c164f37c8c.jpg

 

Screenshot_5.jpg.0224400fa69f7809b7326695bb42ff9d.jpg

 

And the current U.S. daily death totals, based on prior 7 day daily averages, are still pretty close to their all-time highs reached in mid-January, according to CDC data.

 

Looks like the single-day high, based on the average of the prior 7 days, was 3357 deaths as of Jan. 13. (Researchers generally rely more on the prior 7 day average daily totals than single day totals because of the uneven way/timing in which the various jurisdictions report their data.)

 

Screenshot_6.jpg.0a909bd6c70da7109b85fd4535f71b89.jpg

 

Screenshot_7.jpg.4be031574c727e588feecef2e30e0b48.jpg

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16 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

that "kent' pox is just getting warmed up..

 

From the OP:

 

"At least three new variants of the novel coronavirus are circulating in the United States, including the UK variant B.1.1.7 that is 30% to 40% more contagious, according to researchers.

 

"I'm asking everyone to please keep your guard up," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday. "The continued proliferation of variants remains a great concern and is a threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we are seeing."

 

And from Oregon Public Broadcasting:

 

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/01/30/what-we-know-so-far-about-new-covid-19-variants/

 

What happened in other countries once the U.K. variant arrived?

When it arrives, it spreads quickly. In January, B.1.1.7 has accounted for 20% of the cases in Belgium, where it is now the most common variant found. Denmark is currently in a strict lockdown -- but the variant is still spreading. Scientists believe that despite the lockdown, the variant is increasing by 70% each week. Denmark sequences every COVID-19 sample, so its research is very robust.

 

How do we know if it’s here? How do we keep track of it?

Unlike some countries, the U.S. does not have any sort of nationwide COVID-19 genomics surveillance program.

 

Considering the medical technology infrastructure of the U.S. and the money the U.S. spends on such things, the above info seems pretty sad.

 

How do we think B.1.1.7 will act here?

We are still in the early stages of research on this variant, but scientists using fairly simple models have been able to run through a few scenarios. Given how fast the variant spread in the U.K., one paper published in the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report estimated that B.1.1.7 could be the dominant variant in the U.S. by the end of March.

 

 

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1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

From the OP:

 

"At least three new variants of the novel coronavirus are circulating in the United States, including the UK variant B.1.1.7 that is 30% to 40% more contagious, according to researchers.

 

"I'm asking everyone to please keep your guard up," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday. "The continued proliferation of variants remains a great concern and is a threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we are seeing."

 

And from Oregon Public Broadcasting:

 

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/01/30/what-we-know-so-far-about-new-covid-19-variants/

 

What happened in other countries once the U.K. variant arrived?

When it arrives, it spreads quickly. In January, B.1.1.7 has accounted for 20% of the cases in Belgium, where it is now the most common variant found. Denmark is currently in a strict lockdown -- but the variant is still spreading. Scientists believe that despite the lockdown, the variant is increasing by 70% each week. Denmark sequences every COVID-19 sample, so its research is very robust.

 

How do we know if it’s here? How do we keep track of it?

Unlike some countries, the U.S. does not have any sort of nationwide COVID-19 genomics surveillance program.

 

Considering the medical technology infrastructure of the U.S. and the money the U.S. spends on such things, the above info seems pretty sad.

 

How do we think B.1.1.7 will act here?

We are still in the early stages of research on this variant, but scientists using fairly simple models have been able to run through a few scenarios. Given how fast the variant spread in the U.K., one paper published in the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report estimated that B.1.1.7 could be the dominant variant in the U.S. by the end of March.

 

 

there's a lot of concern in Canada also over this. With covid burnout (psychologically) reaching all time highs, when the spring finally arrives it may bring another disaster for people are tired of it all and guards will be let down. 3000 dead a day in the US could be doubled or tripled if hospitals are filled again, with herd immunity a  at least a year away (or longer if vaccines need re tweaking)..

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Some additional info on the variants issue in the U.S.:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-update-variant-concerns-rising-globally-as-spread-grows-in-us-162628683.html

Strains surging

"In the U.S., variants remain a small percentage of sequenced cases, but are showing signs of growth. After beginning with 56 cases at the start of January, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control shows a more than 690 cases of the U.K. variant (B.1.1.7), six cases of the South African (B.1.351) and three cases of the Brazilian (P.1) variant.

 

The preprint of recent study of cases sequenced in 10 U.S. states, and cases in California and Florida, show the U.K. strain is 35% to 46% more transmissible, and is doubling every week and a half. Experts have warned it could be the dominant strain in the U.S., compared to the original strain from Wuhan, by March or April.

 

The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, also showed that extrapolating the data to apply to the populations showed the U.K. variant accounted for 2% of cases in both the U.S. states combined and in California alone, while it likely accounts for 4.5% of cases in Florida. The U.S. continues to lag other countries in genetic sequencing, which means that even though results fall in line with what is being experienced in Europe, it is hard to accurately track or predict the variant’s movements in the U.S."

 

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Looks to me like we are over the Christmas exposure victims and perhaps the start of the positive effects of the vaccination campaign let’s all hope we make progress against this scourge stay safe all practice safe protocols 

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31 minutes ago, brianp0803 said:

I agree about the difference the new president being sworn in. Before that date, California had millions of doses of the vaccine sitting in the warehouse for a couple weeks waiting for him to be sworn in. Now they’re finally taking their warehouse full of vaccine and giving the vaccination to people. Although it is a shame politics were above public safety. Anything to try to make Biden look good.

Ya got evidence backed up by a link to support this assertion? Or is it must more malicious right wing nonsense?

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34 minutes ago, brianp0803 said:

The drop in infection rates and hospital rates is due to the previous 2 to 4 weeks and has absolutely nothing to do with Biden. More likely a small effect from the states that were administering the vaccine produced during Trump’s administration.

Really?

"This week, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which puts out a predictive model that is widely used for planning, including by some government agencies, released a projection saying new cases in the United States would decline steadily from now on.

“We’ve been saying since summer that we thought we’d see a peak in January and I think that, at the national level, we’re around the peak,” said Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, director of the institute. Still, Dr. Murray cautioned that variants of the virus could “totally change the story.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/22/world/covid-19-coronavirus

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Based on data supplied by the Covid vaccine tracker website, before Biden’s inauguration, California had administered only 30% of the vaccine that they had received. The day before Biden’s inauguration, California opened up dodger Stadium and several other mass vaccination sites and started to administer their huge store house full of vaccine. Now the website is reporting that California has administered closer to 70% of the vaccine they have received. That is facts as reported by the Covid vaccine tracker website. 

I’m not sure if it is possible to get all data off of the website because it is updated daily. But I was monitoring it daily and California had huge surplus vaccine in storage until Biden got inaugurated. This is fact

There may be different ways to interpret the reasons for the facts, but that is a facts based on the vaccine tracker website.

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32 minutes ago, brianp0803 said:

Based on data supplied by the Covid vaccine tracker website, before Biden’s inauguration, California had administered only 30% of the vaccine that they had received. The day before Biden’s inauguration, California opened up dodger Stadium and several other mass vaccination sites and started to administer their huge store house full of vaccine. Now the website is reporting that California has administered closer to 70% of the vaccine they have received. That is facts as reported by the Covid vaccine tracker website. 

I’m not sure if it is possible to get all data off of the website because it is updated daily. But I was monitoring it daily and California had huge surplus vaccine in storage until Biden got inaugurated. This is fact

There may be different ways to interpret the reasons for the facts, but that is a facts based on the vaccine tracker website.

From

Before that date, California had millions of doses of the vaccine sitting in the warehouse for a couple weeks waiting for him to be sworn in. Now they’re finally taking their warehouse full of vaccine and giving the vaccination to people. Although it is a shame politics were above public safety. Anything to try to make Biden look good."

to

"There may be different ways to interpret the reasons for the facts, but that is a facts based on the vaccine tracker website."

 

Thats quite a climbdown from you original claim that "Although it is a shame politics were above public safety. Anything to try to make Biden look good."

In fact, as widely reported, the Californiareporting system has all kinds of lags and inconsistencies. California's problems have been particularly severe:

Newsom promised 1 million COVID-19 vaccinations. California can’t tell if he hit his goal 

JAN. 21, 2021 5 AM PT

Gov. Gavin Newsom urged Californians to “hold me accountable” to a goal of administering 1 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine in 10 days, but nearly two weeks later a series of data collection problems have left state officials unable to offer clear evidence of success or failure.

A spokesperson for the California Department of Public Health said Wednesday that it’s likely Newsom reached the 1 million mark over 12 days, not 10 days as promised, but noted that coding errors and data lags have hampered the state’s efforts to accurately count and publicly report how many doses are administered each day.

Newsom’s self-prescribed litmus test was announced as pressures mounted for him to address the state’s slow vaccination rollout, which has left hundreds of thousands of doses sitting on shelves despite the public’s desperate need for the lifesaving drug.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-21/california-data-collection-issues-covid-19-vaccinations-in-10-days-gavin-newsom-promise

Ya think Gavin Newsom decided to commit political suicide in order to help Biden?

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6 hours ago, Donga said:

Marvelous what a presidential election can achieve.

yes! biden our highly cognitive hero promised to beat the virus. hes sooo wonderful, the world can relax hes got this, he should ride a white horse and cape to go with his fetching mask!!! 

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1 hour ago, honcho said:

yes! biden our highly cognitive hero promised to beat the virus. hes sooo wonderful, the world can relax hes got this, he should ride a white horse and cape to go with his fetching mask!!! 

 

Looks like Trump has plenty to say about it as well. Here is one of his latest tweets.

 

 

 

 

 

Trump twitter.jpg

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2 hours ago, honcho said:

yes! biden our highly cognitive hero promised to beat the virus. hes sooo wonderful, the world can relax hes got this, he should ride a white horse and cape to go with his fetching mask!!! 

Well gee wizz I don’t know about all that but this I do know president Biden isent knowingly holding super spreader events sickening many killing and spreading this virus to others with the full knowledge of how dangerous that is I do know the Biden Administration doing his level best to provide the funds to make vaccinations possible on an epic scale I do know that this administration is following fact science based policies I also know that with a competent (courageous) response initially much of this wouldent have been nessary and hundreds of thousands American lives wouldent have been lost 

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9 hours ago, honcho said:

yes! biden our highly cognitive hero promised to beat the virus. hes sooo wonderful, the world can relax hes got this, he should ride a white horse and cape to go with his fetching mask!!! 

I suspect that, unlike some people, Biden understands the meaning of "cognitive" and, should the occasion arise, would understand how to use it properly.

 

 

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