Death Rates in Thailand

[KhaoNiaw]

David Oliver is a medical source that I find completely trustworthy on the UK situation. Here's a recent article published in the BMJ: 

David Oliver: Mistruths and misunderstandings about covid-19 death numbers

He posts on Twitter as @mancunianmedic and gets quite annoyed by conspiracists and the otherwise ill-intentioned who question the integrity of his profession. 

[NanLaew]

1 hour ago, Pilotman said:

I am not coming up with any kind of theory, conspiracy or otherwise.  I am questioning the death rates being attributed to only Covid, nothing more. 

 

Yes, we can see that but why?

[sandyf]

On 2/22/2021 at 12:15 PM, NanLaew said:

I think the key is in reading what is called excess deaths (deviation in mortality from the expected level)* for whatever country you are interested in.

 

Rather than specific numbers, the graphs from the website linked below show percentage comparisons, ie. April 2020, the UK was 108% (over twice as many), Scotland 80% (almost twice as many) and US was 44% (almost half as much increase) over April 2019. Note that Thailand doesn't report their figures weekly but only monthly so their April 2020 figures suggest it wasn't significantly higher with a fall from maybe being +10% the previous month. Influenza isn't so much a seasonal issue in Thailand as pneumonia which is endemic, especially in rural areas and particularly in the cool season.

 

The way I read the chart is back in April, which is after traditional northern hemisphere flu season (October-March), the numbers were excessive and hint at the severity of the first wave, ie. excessive Covid-related deaths. The second wave, although just as serious is more coincident with the traditional flu season, ie. lower ratio of Covid-related deaths. Also the UK's vaccination program kicked off around mid-December so that may be impacting their CURRENT drop off. It isn't that Thailand is wishing to hide these numbers by not including them in weekly statistics, the fact is they are tracked by a different entity than the MOPH.

 

 

* Also note that the website also gives a very clear explanation of Excess Mortality and how it is calculated.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Thanks for bringing this back, I have referred to it in the past but the paranoid are not interested,

When they published the excess mortality middle of last year Thailand was about 0% so it was dismissed as lies. What got ignored was that because Songkran was cancelled the reduction in road deaths offset the rise in covid.

As you said road deaths are irrelevant to the covid situation which is a medical problem and can be overcome by medical means. Road deaths on the other hand are more of a personality trait/ cultural problem and will take generations to overcome.

[sandyf]

22 hours ago, NanLaew said:

 

Right from the get go, global health authorities and governments have stressed the reality that this pandemic will impact the elderly and immune-compromised far more than any other human demographic.

 

Therefore I don't see any need to dig deeper into what PRECISELY caused any one person's demise. There's no great Covid number inflation scam going on here. Questioning the veracity of the numbers just plays to the conspiracy theorists 'societal reset' nonsense.

Quite, the term should be covid related.

Very few actually die from covid. Having the virus in the body puts the immune system under pressure and sometimes unable to cope so any underlying condition can run away. Death is then because of covid, not from it.

In the UK some people have died from delayed treatment because of covid, there is a fine line in respect of actual cause. As previously posted, excess mortality is probably the most reliable guide.

[poskat]

Just old age isnt enough for most covid deaths. these people typically have comorbidities that that are associated with obesity, such as type 2 diabetes.

 

the number of older people in poorer countries who are obese is low.

 

In thailand, the older people are typically very thin, they didnt change their eating habits when western junk food became available here.

 

In contrast there are plenty of fatties here in the <45 year-old age group

[jomtienisgood]

On 2/22/2021 at 12:25 PM, NanLaew said:

 

Since the OP specifically mentioned the virus, I am not at all sure where Thailand's consistently high daily road accident fatality rates make any difference or are even relevant in calculating "how deadly this virus is" here, Scotland or anywhere else.

If correct, until yesterday approx. 29.000 cases referenced of what +/- 80 fatal......

[DavisH]

On 2/23/2021 at 8:53 AM, cmarshall said:

 

But since what we are seeing is excess, not total, deaths, it is very unlikely that any increase in this graph is due to influenza, since influenza rates were below normal this year generally, which was probably due to suppression by the anti-Covid public health measures.

 

What this graph shows is that Covid deaths in Thailand have been much higher than the official tally.

5% above the past 5 year avarage is not significant to any degree, If you could plot the raw data for the last 5 years, I doubt that the line for 2020 would look much different than previous years. My wife works in close conjuction with the hospital system and they have not seen anything unexpected beyond the official figures. 

[DavisH]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Quite, the term should be covid related.

Very few actually die from covid. Having the virus in the body puts the immune system under pressure and sometimes unable to cope so any underlying condition can run away. Death is then because of covid, not from it.

In the UK some people have died from delayed treatment because of covid, there is a fine line in respect of actual cause. As previously posted, excess mortality is probably the most reliable guide.

Well, if one is on a ventilator, and die, they died due to covid inflammation of the lungs. Other's with comorbidities may die when their immune system cannot cope. I think it doesn't matter in the end, to the families anyway. It would only matter to health authorities and scientists who are studying it and need that kind of data. 

[cmarshall]

6 minutes ago, DavisH said:

5% above the past 5 year avarage is not significant to any degree, If you could plot the raw data for the last 5 years, I doubt that the line for 2020 would look much different than previous years. My wife works in close conjuction with the hospital system and they have not seen anything unexpected beyond the official figures. 

 

5% excess mortality is not negligible, it's huge.  Here's a link to a calculation that puts the excess deaths in the US during the 1918 Flu Epidemic at 3.8%.

 

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/02/excess-deaths-in-america-during-epidemics-comparing-covid-19-and-the-spanish-flu

 

Here's a link to a CDC paper covering the 1918 Flu epidemic in Taiwan that estimates the excess mortality at 1.38% 

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/15/10/08-0811_article

 

[rabas]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

 

5% excess mortality is not negligible, it's huge.  Here's a link to a calculation that puts the excess deaths in the US during the 1918 Flu Epidemic at 3.8%.

 

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/02/excess-deaths-in-america-during-epidemics-comparing-covid-19-and-the-spanish-flu

 

Here's a link to a CDC paper covering the 1918 Flu epidemic in Taiwan that estimates the excess mortality at 1.38% 

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/15/10/08-0811_article

 

You are quoting fatality rates as percent of the entire population. Excess death numbers are a percentage of the number of deaths in said year, month, etc. Apples to jackfruit.

 

These two numbers differ by roughly 8000% because roughly 1/80 people die per year.   Death of 1.5 % of the population beyond normal represents an excess death well beyond 100%.

 

DavisH is correct, you  must compare alleged excess deaths to the maximum monthly variation of deaths over the last 5 years, in which case any wiggles in the Thai graph disappear. Seeing excess covid deaths in the Thai graph is a bit like seeing faces in clouds.  Here are some real death rates by month as example. Note how big the monthly variations are.

 

http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode%3A65

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by rabas

[sandyf]

21 hours ago, DavisH said:

Well, if one is on a ventilator, and die, they died due to covid inflammation of the lungs. Other's with comorbidities may die when their immune system cannot cope. I think it doesn't matter in the end, to the families anyway. It would only matter to health authorities and scientists who are studying it and need that kind of data. 

You are free to believe what you like.

People should be aware of how many lives have been lost to the pandemic, for whatever reason.

It would be the greatest motivation to avoid repetition.

[sandyf]

18 hours ago, rabas said:

DavisH is correct, you  must compare alleged excess deaths to the maximum monthly variation of deaths over the last 5 years,

Wrong. The calculation is the total deaths for a period compared to the average for that same period over the previous 5 years.

If the average death rate over the previous 5 years in Thailand was 400K and in 2020 there were 500K deaths then the question would be why an additional 100K.

It is not an exact science, could be a result of covid or it could be Songkran was held half a dozen times without anyone being aware.

 

In early 2020 the total deaths in Thailand was below the 5 year average.

 

The low number is an encouraging sign for Thailand’s coronavirus situation. While the country has a relatively low testing rate, the absence of a spike in the mortality rate suggests there may not be a large number of virus-related deaths that have gone uncounted.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/thailand-sees-decline-in-deaths-amid-low-coronavirus-infections

[mfd101]

Yesterday The Australian newspaper published some figures for Oz excess mortality over June-Nov 2020 (ie winter & spring) from pneumonia & related causes including from corona virus.. The excess mortality was a negative figure ie there were fewer deaths in 2020 from those causes than the average of the previous 4 or 5 years.

 

Normally there are hundreds of deaths from influenza. In the period cited there were just 2.

 

Attributed to social distancing, lockdowns & increased hygiene.

Edited February 25, 2021 by mfd101

[Blue Muton]

On 2/22/2021 at 12:03 PM, SaamBaht said:

Right...another way to look at the situation in Thailand is to compare Covid deaths and road deaths...

 

First six weeks in Thailand

 

Covid less than five... (don't know the exact number)

 

Road deaths more that 2,000

 

Billions lost to Covid mitigation including stupid lockdowns...and draconian immigration policies...but Thailand isn't alone in this...

 

Yes, because it is 100% true that road deaths are contagious, must be  true because I read it somewhere on the internet.

 

I wonder whether you call lockdowns "stupid" because you don't understand the science or because you simply choose to ignore it.

 

You conspiracy sheep are so funny at times.

[DavisH]

On 2/25/2021 at 9:04 AM, sandyf said:

You are free to believe what you like.

People should be aware of how many lives have been lost to the pandemic, for whatever reason.

It would be the greatest motivation to avoid repetition.

Where did I state that deaths are not important? I'm also not into beliefs. I prefer factual information, not heresay and innuendo. Show your evidence. 

[DavisH]

23 hours ago, sandyf said:

Wrong. The calculation is the total deaths for a period compared to the average for that same period over the previous 5 years.

If the average death rate over the previous 5 years in Thailand was 400K and in 2020 there were 500K deaths then the question would be why an additional 100K.

It is not an exact science, could be a result of covid or it could be Songkran was held half a dozen times without anyone being aware.

 

In early 2020 the total deaths in Thailand was below the 5 year average.

 

The low number is an encouraging sign for Thailand’s coronavirus situation. While the country has a relatively low testing rate, the absence of a spike in the mortality rate suggests there may not be a large number of virus-related deaths that have gone uncounted.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/thailand-sees-decline-in-deaths-amid-low-coronavirus-infections

100K more deaths...where is that information from, or are you making stuff up? that is a 25% increase over the average, which is blatantly false. The real "increase" is less that 5%. Stop trolling. 

[bermondburi]

Seems strange that over most of the year, coinciding with corona waves deaths were far higher than normal. Probably more than 80 methinks. 

[sandyf]

On 2/26/2021 at 9:10 AM, DavisH said:

100K more deaths...where is that information from, or are you making stuff up? that is a 25% increase over the average, which is blatantly false. The real "increase" is less that 5%. Stop trolling. 

What part of the  word "if" did you find difficult? "If the average death rate "

It was fairly obvious I posted an arbitrary scenario but I will ignore the abuse and just assume it went over your head.

The factual information was in the article which obviously you didn't bother to read.

[bermondburi]

3 clear peaks of excess mortality in Thailand during 2020. If 10% extra people are dying than normal in any given month compared to previous years, and those periods coincide with high C19 infection rates, it's not unreasonable to assume they may be connected and conflate the two. 

 

[bermondburi]

So looking up the death rate in Thailand I found this. 

 

https://knoema-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/knoema.com/atlas/Thailand/Death-rate?mode=amp&amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA==#aoh=16145286789348&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s

 

So about 7.8 per 1000. At a population of 67 million that amounts to 522,600 people per year. 

 

Divide by 12 to give you a monthly average of 43,550. Obviously this doesn't account for seasonal variations but if you're looking at past averages that wouldn't make any difference as those averages reflect that anyway. 

 

To take any of those months of 43,550 and add 10% on that is going to give you a figure in the 1000s. It is reasonable to assume that in the absence of any other major causes of death during 2020, they can be attributed to corona, especially when you look at the rises in deaths, when they occur, and when the different waves hit Thailand 

 

I can't be bothered to go through every month percentage change because I want to watch Chelsea lose. Maybe I'll do it later, but what I do know is that there have been far more than 83 deaths due to C19 in 2020! 

[Muzzique]

Thailand’s mortality data is taken from the Bureau of Registration Administration. This however has not been available since early last year as government restrictions stopped its disclosure. In March the Excessive Mortality Rate was running 8.5% over the expected average. 

 

This article written at the time has some good information.

 

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/06/lifting-the-veil-on-thailands-covid-19-success-story/

 

All real World documents relating to the number of Thai deaths have been closed from view since then. 

 

The following report for a random screening of staff and patients for COVID  in 52 community hospitals across Thailand  between April 8 to June 26, 2020 showed that 5.5% of staff and 12.1% of patients who were onsite awaiting operations tested positive for the COVID 19 antibody indicating they had already had COVID.  IgM+ is the positive antibody test result. They then used that to calculate the prevalence of  IgM+ within the Thai population as a whole and it suggested a figure of 6.3%. This survey was made by Department of Preventive and Social Medicine's Faculty of Medicine at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

 

 

Due to the information lockdown by the government no other figures are available but it does suggest COVID was quite prevalent at this time and pretty close to, if not higher than other countries levels. 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139188v3.full.pdf

 

Make of it what you will.