EU rebuffs UK calls to ship AstraZeneca COVID vaccines from Europe

[Hi from France]

Yeah it definitely seems the UK won't pick up a fight with the EU  

 

Quote

Britain could bring a case against the EU at the World Trade Organization but that would be a slow process — so it could instead engage in immediate retaliation and turn the issue into a full-blown trade war, experts noted. "I suppose that, if the EU blocked exports and singled out Britain for political reasons, the U.K. could — and would — bring a case against the EU at the WTO," said Anton Spisak from the Tony Blair Institute.

 

 

Quote

But MPs — while expressing anger at the EU over its threats — argued retaliation would be a bad idea. “All trade wars risk impoverishing the citizens of both sides,” said former trade minister Conor Burns — a close friend of Johnson's. “Vaccine trade wars risk needlessly killing people and must be averted."

 

Source https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-urged-to-keep-cool-as-uk-and-eu-square-up-on-vaccines/

 

Maybe Boris Johnson should just put Frost in charge? 

[vinny41]

6 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

Politico's coverage of the story 

Boris Johnson urged to keep cool as UK and EU square up on vaccines

The moment of truth will come on Thursday, when EU leaders discuss their course of action at a Council summit

 

Even the ERG is backing down 

https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-urged-to-keep-cool-as-uk-and-eu-square-up-on-vaccines/

 

My take is that

* the EU will stop exporting arguing that the UK has had plenty and has been keeping it all. 

* the UK doesn't want to escalate as it would highlight how selfish they have been while the EU was sharing its own production.

 

Are British politicians kind of ashamed? Seems so to me, but please share your own take... 

The EU hasn't been sharing its own vaccine, pfizer biontech produce a vaccine, they have supplied eu countries with orders they have placed and now are exporting stock that the EU countries don't want to purchase

 

Coronavirus: EU 'not ready' to share COVID vaccines with poorer countries

Despite earlier promises, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc cannot donate COVID-19 vaccines to developing countries while it struggles with its own supply. The UK slammed the move as "counterproductive."

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-eu-not-ready-to-share-covid-vaccines-with-poorer-countries/a-56944274

 

 

 

[david555]

1 minute ago, candide said:

The compromise may be something like this: UK will get enough supply to be able to give a second jab to a significant share (all?) of people already vaccinated, and the EU keeps at least what was scheduled in contracts with supplier + eventual surplus.

That was what it made start all of this ...the E.U. getting what was paid for and waited to become delivered ....not just put on the reserve list .....

Nothing more ...

[vinny41]

14 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

Yeah it definitely seems the UK won't pick up a fight with the EU  

 

 

 

 

Source https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-urged-to-keep-cool-as-uk-and-eu-square-up-on-vaccines/

 

Maybe Boris Johnson should just put Frost in charge? 

The Telegraph has a solution

An EU vaccine export ban should trigger tariffs on German cars

Instead, the UK should borrow a trick from the United States. Smart tariffs. We should unveil, by Thursday morning, a list of immediate, emergency levies that will be applied on EU exports to the UK, such as cars, foods, wine, clothing and machinery. With luck, they won’t have to be imposed - but the threat of "smart tariffs" may well be enough to ensure vaccine supplies keep flowing. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/22/eu-vaccine-export-ban-should-trigger-tariffs-german-cars/

Edited March 22, 2021 by vinny41
typo

[Hi from France]

27 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

 

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-eu-not-ready-to-share-covid-vaccines-with-poorer-countries/a-56944274

Your new source contradicts your previous one 

 

Here I have 

 

Quote

"The EU has invested €2.2 billion ($2.6 billion) in this initiative. COVAX

 

While the previous one said zero 

 

Which one is true then? 

[candide]

6 minutes ago, david555 said:

That was what it made start all of this ...the E.U. getting what was paid for and waited to become delivered ....not just put on the reserve list .....

Nothing more ...

Actually it could get more, provided it may want to (the EU may be just happy to get the expected deliveries). The strategic problem of UK is the policy to extend the gap between first and second jab to 12 weeks, while not storing second jabs.That leaves only a narrow margin of gap extension.

 

In case of reciprocal retaliations (which is not a scenario I advocate), UK's strategic problem is that around 12 million people (among the most at risk categories) have received a first dose of Pfizer BioNtech vaccine and most of them are waiting for their second dose. Strategically, UK cannot afford not to get the second jab. For the EU, only the first jab is at risk. Therefore, UK cannot afford to turn down an offer which would only (for some time) guarantee the supply of second jabs.

[Hi from France]

27 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

The Telegraph has a solution

Not the Telegraph, but Matthew Lynn. 

 

Amongst other things he writes thrillers.. We might be more interested with the opinion of people who have some actual power 

[vinny41]

2 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

Your new source contradicts your previous one 

 

Here I have 

 

 

While the previous one said zero 

 

Which one is true then? 

If you have checked the details in my post you would have seen that the chart related to gavi also known as Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization and that chart clearly stated that and for the timelinebetween  2016-2020

[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

Not the Telegraph, but Matthew Lynn. 

 

Amongst other things he writes thrillers.. We might be more interested with the opinion of people who have some actual power 

Try again  Matthew Lynn

Matthew Lynn is a financial columnist and author. He writes for WSJ Marketwatch, The Spectator and Money Week as well as The Telegraph, and has worked as a columnist for The Sunday Times and Bloomberg. His books include ‘Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis’ and ‘The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031’ as well as the ‘Death Force’ thrillers published by Hodder Headline. He is also the founder of Endeavour Press, a leading e-book publisher.

So now we have established that he writes for the The Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/matthew-lynn/

[Hi from France]

2 minutes ago, candide said:

In case of reciprocal retaliations (which is not a scenario I advocate), UK's strategic problem is that 

Nice reasoning, but in this case, I do not think that we need to get that far. 

 

Every British politician who was interviewed realise that the UK cannot afford an open fight with the EU. 

 

Especially given the ugly economic situation of the country.

 

So this arm-twisting is likely to work, the UK could even have no choice but cooperation 

Quote

But Burns said Britain should be willing to help EU member states get their vaccine production and rollout back on track

 https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-urged-to-keep-cool-as-uk-and-eu-square-up-on-vaccines/

[Hi from France]

8 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

.So now we have established that he writes for the The Telegraph

Yeah brilliant, so what? Anything relevant there? 

[vinny41]

2 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

Yeah brilliant, so what? Anything relevant there? 

I am sure Boris has got Frosty working day and night to produce a list ready

[Hi from France]

1 minute ago, vinny41 said:

I am sure Boris has got Frosty working day and night to produce a list ready

You are sure of that? Source? 

 

 

 

@candide

 

You can see the position has shifted the UK has abandoned any idea of retaliatory measures. 

 

They are "generously" sharing now 

Quote

Boris Johnson ponders sharing Dutch-made AstraZeneca doses with the EU

The Prime Minister is understood to be prepared to compromise over the distribution of supplies manufactured at the Halix facility

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/22/boris-johnson-ponders-sharing-dutch-made-astrazeneca-doses-eu/

 

Operation "vaccine-sharing" seems geared towards success ????

[vinny41]

9 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

You are sure of that? Source? 

 

 

 

@candide

 

You can see the position has shifted the UK has abandoned any idea of retaliatory measures. 

 

They are "generously" sharing now 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/22/boris-johnson-ponders-sharing-dutch-made-astrazeneca-doses-eu/

 

Operation "vaccine-sharing" seems geared towards success ????

Suggest you read the article has it clearly states Dutch Made vaccine

And my comment about Frosty is my personal opinion and the forum doesn't require members to provide a source when they post their personal opinion

The Uk never had any plans in place to suspend the export of vaccine ingredients to the EU , that doesn't mean that they have alternative retaliatory measures in place

Interesting comment in your link from the Irish PM

If we start that, then we are in trouble", Micheál Martin told Irish radio in a sign of divisions between EU member states. “It would be counterproductive”.

“They're not EU vaccines. These are vaccines paid for by other countries that are manufactured in Europe,” he said before calling for an end for the “argy-bargy” between Westminster and Brussels.

Edited March 22, 2021 by vinny41

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, candide said:

The compromise may be something like this: UK will get enough supply to be able to give a second jab to a significant share (all?) of people already vaccinated, and the EU keeps at least what was scheduled in contracts with supplier + eventual surplus.

The UK is not short of second dose jabs, it does not give the first without having the second in supply for the right time.

[candide]

51 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The UK is not short of second dose jabs, it does not give the first without having the second in supply for the right time.

So it is dependent on timely deliveries of second doses from the EU, in particular for the Pfizer vaccine.

 

The point I made was in the case there would be a risk of reciprocal retaliation between the EU and UK (which I repeat is not the scenario I expect because they will make a compromise of some sort). Of course, if the EU doesn't block the expected Pfizer vaccine delivery to UK, there is no problem of 2nd dose.

Edited March 22, 2021 by candide

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, candide said:

The point I made was in the case there would be a risk kf reciprocal retaliation between the EU and UK (which I repeat is not the scenario I expect because they will make a compromise of some sort). Of course, if the EU doesn't block the expected Pfizer vaccine delivery to UK, there is no problem of 2nd dose.

Yes I'm sure that was your point, as it would be incompetence at its highest to suggest any country let alone the UK would give out a first dose regime without keeping the second dose in hand.

[candide]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes I'm sure that was your point, as it would be incompetence at its highest to suggest any country let alone the UK would give out a first dose regime without keeping the second dose in hand.

I am surprised by this claim, as you were assuming that storing 7 million doses for the whole EU was a waste.

There are currently around 24 million people in UK who received only a first dose, more or less equally shared between the two brands. Do you mean there are 24 million doses stored somewhere in UK? What is your source? Can you link it?

Edited March 22, 2021 by candide

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, candide said:

I am surprised by this claim, as you were assuming that storing 7 million doses for the whole EU.

There are currently around 24 million people in UK who received only a first dose, more or less equally shared between the two brands. Do you mean there are 24 million doses stored somewhere in UK? What is your source? Can you link it?

"Delays to the UK's Covid vaccine supply in April will not affect people getting their second doses or England's roadmap out of lockdown, the health secretary says."

 

"There will be no cancelled appointments as a result of supply issues - second doses will go ahead as planned,"

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56444700

 

 

[candide]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

"Delays to the UK's Covid vaccine supply in April will not affect people getting their second doses or England's roadmap out of lockdown, the health secretary says."

 

"There will be no cancelled appointments as a result of supply issues - second doses will go ahead as planned,"

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56444700

 

 

That's about current delays. It's not about the scenario of an export ban by the EU.

Logically, if UK had the second dose at hand, they wouldn't need to wait 12 weeks to give the second dose. From what I read, only 4% got their 2nd dose.

So how many doses are currently stored?

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, candide said:

That's about current delays. It's not about the scenario of an export ban by the EU.

Logically, if UK had the second dose at hand, they wouldn't need to wait 12 weeks to give the second dose. From what I read, only 4% got their 2nd dose.

So how many doses are currently stored?

Now you're just being pedantic, there are to be no cancelled appointments for second doses, direct from the UK Health Secretary, its really as simple as that

[candide]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Now you're just being pedantic, there are to be no cancelled appointments for second doses, direct from the UK Health Secretary, its really as simple as that

Now you are deflecting. The health Secretary was not talking about the eventuality of an export ban by the EU.

You have no evidence of UK keeping at hand the second dose and it defies logic as it would be stupid to keep it at hand during 12 weeks.

[Bkk Brian]

53 minutes ago, candide said:

Now you are deflecting. The health Secretary was not talking about the eventuality of an export ban by the EU.

You have no evidence of UK keeping at hand the second dose and it defies logic as it would be stupid to keep it at hand during 12 weeks.

Any potential delay because of an export ban would be a delay to the first dose. 

 

However this is obviously important to you and unfortunately the BBC reporters failed to ask him where exactly he had these second dose vaccines to hand for those who have already received the first dose, be that in storage or via one of the two AZ production plants in the UK or the one in India. 

 

So can I suggest you contact Matt directly, he may find it a significant enough issue to reply to your questions. https://twitter.com/MattHancock

 

[JBChiangRai]

It’s an interesting legal scenario.

 

If the EU interrupts AZ being able to fulfill its contractual obligations to the UK then the UK will have a claim on AZ (jurisdiction was specified in the contract as UK law).

 

AZ would then have a claim on the EU for damages they have to pay to the UK, jurisdiction EU or WTO.

 

The UK and AZ would have a claim on the EU (a third party with whom they have no contractual agreement) for Tortious Interference in their UK-AZ contract, jurisdiction WTO.

 

One things for sure, the winners will be the legal boys.

 

Let’s not forget, when we talk about the UK or the EU exporting vaccines, we are really talking about private companies and not governments. They will try to make their decisions on contractual financial and not humanitarian grounds.

[Bluespunk]

On 3/22/2021 at 12:41 AM, webfact said:

Two factories in Britain run by Oxford Biomedica and Cobra Biologics are also listed as suppliers to the EU in the contract with AstraZeneca, but no vaccine has so far been shipped from Britain to the EU, despite Brussels' earlier requests.

Ah huh...

[cocoonclub]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

The UK and AZ would have a claim on the EU (a third party with whom they have no contractual agreement) for Tortious Interference in their UK-AZ contract, jurisdiction WTO.

I agree to the rest of your post. Not to this one. The UK and the EU don’t have any contractual relationship here, so the UK would have to sue AZ and AZ would have to sue the EU. Likewise, the EU could sue AZ (and, in case AZ would like to fulfill its contractual obligations towards the EU by using UK capacity but the UK prevents that, the AZ could then sue the UK). The question is whether a country has the right to impose an export ban on a company when such company fails to fulfill it’s contractual obligations. Like you said, lawyers will have the time of their life on this one. 
 

AZ really messed this up big times. The best they could do is try to broker some sort of compromise between the three of them, otherwise they will always be on the losing side as fulfilling one contract means not fulfilling the other one. 

Edited March 23, 2021 by cocoonclub

[candide]

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Any potential delay because of an export ban would be a delay to the first dose. 

 

However this is obviously important to you and unfortunately the BBC reporters failed to ask him where exactly he had these second dose vaccines to hand for those who have already received the first dose, be that in storage or via one of the two AZ production plants in the UK or the one in India. 

 

So can I suggest you contact Matt directly, he may find it a significant enough issue to reply to your questions. https://twitter.com/MattHancock

 

Deflecting again.

 

Have you read the article you linked? It refers only to the delay due to India failing to deliver 5 million doses on time. It doesn't address the topic of a possible export ban by the EU, and doesn't mention vaccine storage. Quote: Mr Hancock said the roadmap had not been affected by the "changes to vaccine supply that we've been detailing in the last 24 hours".

 

You don't have any evidence of your claim. Nobody ever mentioned it, despite the abundant information available.

 

As I said, it also defies logic. It would be stupid to "keep at hand" the second dose during 12 weeks, in particular when the stated objective is to give as many first doses as possible during the shortest possible time

Edited March 23, 2021 by candide

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, candide said:

Deflecting again.

 

Have you read the article you linked? It refers only to the delay due to India failing to deliver 5 million doses on time. It doesn't address the topic of a possible export ban by the EU, and doesn't mention vaccine storage. Quote: Mr Hancock said the roadmap had not been affected by the "changes to vaccine supply that we've been detailing in the last 24 hours".

 

You don't have any evidence of your claim. Nobody ever mentioned it, despite the abundant information available.

 

As I said, it also defies logic. It would be stupid to "keep at hand" the second dose during 12 weeks, in particular when the stated objective is to give as many first doses as possible during the shortest possible time

Deflecting is your favourite word now? Try better next time, I know how much you want the UK to be desperate for second dose supplies but sorry its not happening despite your obsession with it.

[Hi from France]

4 hours ago, cocoonclub said:

I agree to the rest of your post. Not to this one. The UK and the EU don’t have any contractual relationship here, so the UK would have to sue AZ and AZ would have to sue the EU. Likewise, the EU could sue AZ

No one will sue.. 

 

Next Thursday I bet we are going to see Boris as the best friend of the European Union. Two peas in a pod. 

 

 

Potential for EU-UK vaccine collaboration despite AstraZeneca row

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/22/potential-for-eu-uk-vaccine-collaboration-despite-astrazeneca-row

 

 

[Hi from France]

The fun thing is what will be a win-win negotiation, European style, is that the UK has no ambassador in the EU. 

 

So we have no proper discussion channel. 

 

... Fortunately the "former ambassador to the EU" is helping patch things up 

Quote

One Whitehall source said there were early talks on what the UK could offer to avoid a major international dispute, but it was too early to say whether supplies were likely to be shared.

 

Quote

Sir Tim Barrow, the former ambassador to the EU, is among the senior advisors trying to negotiate a solution to the dispute.

Go Dutch? UK and EU may share Netherlands Covid vaccine supplies to ease tensions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/23/uk-moves-to-ease-tensions-with-eu-over-covid-vaccine-exports

 

 

Other points:

• Boris Johnson has privately urged his own ministers to dial down any tit-for-tat language over the row
• France and Germany continue to press Brussels to be firmer on exports.
• On Thursday, EU leaders will discuss whether the commission should be granted new powers to seize control of distribution and production in EU territory.
• Raab is expected to speak to EU foreign ministers in Brussels on the sidelines of the Nato meeting in Brussels on Tuesday.
• French Europe minister “This must be the strategy of a Europe that moves faster and defends its interests"

 

 

With a little pressure, all's well that ends well, we are going to have a win-win and a lot of handshakes. 

 

. 

Edited March 23, 2021 by Hi from France