World Bank cuts Thai GDP growth outlook to 3.4% this year

[webfact]

FILE PHOTO: Cars pass a Skytrain (Bangkok Mass Transit System) construction site in Bangkok, Thailand May 13, 2018. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is expected to grow 3.4% this year, down from the 4% projected earlier, and the recovery would be gradual amid high uncertainties and weak tourism, the World Bank said on Friday.

 

Thailand's tourism-reliant economy shrank 6.1% last year, its deepest slump in over two decades, with tourism battered by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

The government still has room to support the economy, which is expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior country economist for Thailand, told a briefing.

 

"Fiscal policy remains key to shore up the economy this year and next," noting the country's public debt was not too high.

 

On Friday, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha told reporters the government aimed to achieve GDP growth of 4% this year and in 2022 by accelerating investment and spending as planned.

 

He asked the private sector and the public to spend and invest more to help the recovery.

 

The GDP growth projections compared with 2.6% forecast by the International Monetary Fund and 3.0% by Thailand's central bank.

 

While Thailand has largely contained its latest coronavirus outbreak and has eased restrictions, its all-important tourism sector, hit by global travel curbs, continues to suffer. However, Thailand is preparing to gradually reopen to foreign visitors.

 

In February, the number of foreign tourists plunged 99.7% year-on-year to 5,741, after a 99.8% slump in January.

 

The central bank has forecast 3 million foreign tourists this year after 6.7 million last year and nearly 40 million in 2019 who spent 1.91 trillion baht ($61.34 billion).

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Ed Davies)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-03-26

 

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[Jimbo2014]

They should really start the year stating a growth of 0% - then each month we could rejoice as expectations were actually exceeded!  ????

[bloodyholly]

Breaking....

 

Thailand sues World Bank over derogatory remarks made about expected economy growth figures

[bloodyholly]

1 minute ago, bloodyholly said:

Breaking....

 

Thailand sues World Bank over derogatory remarks made about expected economy growth figures

Ooops ... forgot the ???? or ????

[Isaan sailor]

Good luck, Thailand. You screwed the pooch (tourists) too many times.

[mfd101]

19 hours ago, Jimbo2014 said:

They should really start the year stating a growth of 0% - then each month we could rejoice as expectations were actually exceeded!  ????

Yes, you would think if they can't quite run the country properly, they could at least get the politics right. But no.

 

So we now have a range of predictions, from 2.6% to 4%, with the government stuck at the high end. It will be interesting to see how the 'statistics' evolve over the next 9 months.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, mfd101 said:

Yes, you would think if they can't quite run the country properly, they could at least get the politics right. But no.

 

So we now have a range of predictions, from 2.6% to 4%, with the government stuck at the high end. It will be interesting to see how the 'statistics' evolve over the next 9 months.

In a word, grim.

[RichardColeman]

If they do not open up the country for tourism October then that 3-4% will in all likelihood be nearer to 0%. Simply because last year they still had some tourism industry for 3 or 4 months

[Bradmeister]

22 hours ago, bloodyholly said:

Breaking....

 

Thailand sues World Bank over derogatory remarks made about expected economy growth figures

Black lists all World Bank members and Immigration placed on "High Alert", whilst issuing arrest warrants for Defaming Thailand Economy! 

[Isaan sailor]

Maybe if Bank of Thailand unpegged the Baht from the Chinese Yuan (so it seems), the Baht would relax and the economy would finally improve.

[Blumpie]

One thing is for sure, tourism is not going to be as important in the short term for Thailand's growth.  What the long term consequences are of this remain to be seen.

I wonder what Thailand tourism will look like in 2+ years when they can finally start to re-open meaningfully.  

[mfd101]

13 hours ago, Blumpie said:

One thing is for sure, tourism is not going to be as important in the short term for Thailand's growth.  What the long term consequences are of this remain to be seen.

I wonder what Thailand tourism will look like in 2+ years when they can finally start to re-open meaningfully.  

The problem seems to be that noone in this government (perhaps in the whole country) can think STRATEGICALLY - ie big picture, long-term, and what are the steps (education, training, corruption ...) they need to fix so the country can move forward confidently to A DIFFERENT FUTURE, more robust and less destructive than tourism can ever be.

[AlfHuy]

Are they run now by the Tourism industry?