Younger Brazilians Are Dying From Covid in an Alarming New Shift

So far this month, according to government data, about 2,030 Brazilians aged 30 to 39 have died from Covid, more than double the number recorded in January...

“Before, the risk factor to dying from Covid-19 was being older, having some co-morbidity,” said Domingos Alves, a professor of medicine who’s part of the national monitoring group. “Now, the risk is being Brazilian.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-26/younger-brazilians-are-dying-from-covid-in-an-alarming-new-shift

The same trend is happening in France, more young people in ICUs. 

Without an aggressive vaccine program, Thailand are better off maintaining the current strategy, isolation and closed borders.

 

Although not exclusively in terms of nations Brazil has long had an increasingly endemic issue with heart disease as a primary cause of death for it's elderly population which as an underlying factor is/has been a likely problematic issue with the  high level of Covid-19 infections precipitating morbidity.

Statistically Brazil has actually regressed over the last 30 years in terms of healthy life expectancy which correlates with an massive economic development.

Perhaps no co-incidence is also the abuse of substances, high incidence of HIV and all the issues familiar in other countries following the same economic "improvements"and which also have demonstrated a seemingly greater susceptibility to covid-19 or now the variants ?

However the mystery that still evades any consensus is the debate over whether any core hereditary/ race based factors  or  alternatively socioeconomic conditioning influences a wider community active immune response one way or the other?

While Asian/South East Asian nations other than India seem to have demonstrated generally high resistance at least on notable severity effect  to Covid-19 the  compliance level  to mandated mitigation protocols in general may have contaminated comparatives for valid eventual statistical evaluation.

IMO at least for the duration of the heights of this global event Thailand is a decidedly better place to be than places such as Brazil!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil's fast growing 3rd wave and sudden rise in case fatality rate is mosly due to the Brazilian mutation strain, P.1.  I doubt it relates to long term economic decline and substance abuse. Here is the medical view:

 

Sudden rise in COVID-19 case fatality among young and middle-aged adults in the south of Brazil after identification of the novel B.1.1.28.1 (P.1) SARS-CoV-2 strain:

 

Canada is also reporting concerns about increased mortality with newer variants and younger people.  Many other countries are seeing surges precisely at the wrong time.  Exiting winter normally signals the end of respiratory epidemics. 

6 hours ago, Nojohndoe said:

Although not exclusively in terms of nations Brazil has long had an increasingly endemic issue with heart disease as a primary cause of death for it's elderly population which as an underlying factor is/has been a likely problematic issue with the  high level of Covid-19 infections precipitating morbidity.

Statistically Brazil has actually regressed over the last 30 years in terms of healthy life expectancy which correlates with an massive economic development.

Perhaps no co-incidence is also the abuse of substances, high incidence of HIV and all the issues familiar in other countries following the same economic "improvements"and which also have demonstrated a seemingly greater susceptibility to covid-19 or now the variants ?

However the mystery that still evades any consensus is the debate over whether any core hereditary/ race based factors  or  alternatively socioeconomic conditioning influences a wider community active immune response one way or the other?

While Asian/South East Asian nations other than India seem to have demonstrated generally high resistance at least on notable severity effect  to Covid-19 the  compliance level  to mandated mitigation protocols in general may have contaminated comparatives for valid eventual statistical evaluation.

IMO at least for the duration of the heights of this global event Thailand is a decidedly better place to be than places such as Brazil!

If that were the case, why only later in the pandemic the rise in percentages of younger people's mortality?

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

If that were the case, why only later in the pandemic the rise in percentages of younger people's mortality?

Possibly a factor of the variant/mutations  ? Allowing the unmitigated spread of a pathogen is dangerous because it invites the opportunity for mutations that not only become more infectious but to also impact more severely on different crucial organs regardless of age implied  vulnerability.

 It is that which makes the concept of "herd immunity" an anathema  to virologists.

17 minutes ago, Nojohndoe said:

Possibly a factor of the variant/mutations  ? Allowing the unmitigated spread of a pathogen is dangerous because it invites the opportunity for mutations that not only become more infectious but to also impact more severely on different crucial organs regardless of age implied  vulnerability.

 It is that which makes the concept of "herd immunity" an anathema  to virologists.

i agree with you but that contradicts what you stated before where you invoked other factirs for the rise in the deaths of young people. None of which would explain why this rise is occurring only recently.

57 minutes ago, placeholder said:

i agree with you but that contradicts what you stated before where you invoked other factirs for the rise in the deaths of young people. None of which would explain why this rise is occurring only recently.

I am not sure where my apparent contradiction is because my intended inference was that the inverse effect of rapid economic development on general public health provides opportunity for vulnerability due to the deterioration of that general public health at an earlier age.

The average life expectancy in Brazil has not altered greatly. But the healthy life expectancy has decreased significantly with increased economic development.That is not an instantaneous development but an accrued factor. With reference to that is not realistic to consider an expansion in the impact of covid-19 via variants on a downward age scale?

Medical opinion so far suggests few people have died as a direct result of Covid-19 but have succumbed to an exacerbation of underlying conditions which ordinarily may have been less significant or even apparent previously.

HIV as an infection is usually relatively mild and does not kill. AIDS as a consequence kills because the impact of HIV has destroyed protection against other pathogens. Covid-19 presents as not dissimilar in consequence rather than in effect.

I've watched a few vloggers on Youtube over the last month, doing walkarounds in Rio. 

 

A month ago it was crazy, packed everywhere. They do know how to party.

 

Crowds seem down quite a lot over the past week.

 

 

With poor public health guidance - bolisaro's strategy seems to be to wing it - and variants of variants, things are not looking good.

 

 

 

The article presents a confusing picture.  Where tens of millions of people are infected simultaneously we might expect thousands to die even in low risk subsets. And as one poster mentioned, if other health risks are endemic, it may be there has been an incorrect presumption of 'young and healthy'.  More investigation is needed. It is truly disturbing, however.

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

i agree with you but that contradicts what you stated before where you invoked other factirs for the rise in the deaths of young people. None of which would explain why this rise is occurring only recently.

 

I see what you mean, but perhaps recently there has been an exponential rise in infection rates generally in younger people.

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

I see what you mean, but perhaps recently there has been an exponential rise in infection rates generally in younger people.

The fatality rate of young people is  rising rapidly. Case fatality rate, CFR does not depend on number of infections, just what percentage of cases are fatal. Here is what the Brazilian medical profession are saying.

 

"Brazil is currently suffering a deadly surge of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections, which has been attributed to the spread of a new strain known as P.1 (B.1.1.28.1)."

 

"Individuals between 20 and 29 years of age whose diagnosis was made in February 2021 had an over 3-fold higher risk of death compared to those diagnosed in January 2021"

 

"those aged 30-39, 40-49, 50-59 experienced approximate CFR doubling."

 

perhaps the young starting to die with the same frequency that seniors did will finally wake up those selfish souls who only care about themselves, but I doubt it..

The fact that recently more younger people appear to be dying with COVID-19 is not limited to Brazil, though in Latin America it seems to be a more common problem (see this -older-article with some possible explantions: https://blogs.iadb.org/ideas-matter/en/the-young-fare-better-with-covid-19-but-in-latin-america-the-reality-is-more-nuanced/)

Outside Latin America a similar trend of more young victims is observed. A (very limited) study in Malaysia showed that from 38 persons that died at home with COVID, more than  half were below 60 and 8 were below 40 https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2021/02/26/why-are-more-young-people-dying-at-home-from-covid-19/. In France, patients in ICUs are now much younger than in the first and second wave, with many aged between 30 and 65 https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/25/covid-19-now-killing-younger-people-french-doctor-tells-euronews. Most had no underlying health conditions, but some were overweight. Same in Canada: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/more-young-canadians-getting-severe-covid-19-being-hospitalized-experts-1.5364360. You could fill a few pages with this. 

The general view by many is that more transmissible and deadly variants contribute to the phenomenon but there is rarely a single cause and answers remain elusive.  

Bolsonaro replaces six cabinet ministers

 

Foreign minister
Defense minister
Justice minister
Chief of staff
Attorney General
Govt secretary

 

 

Also replaces military leaders of the Army, Navy and Air Force. (Prrevious heads resigned in protest I think?)

 

And last week his fourth (since the pandemic) Health Minister was sworn in.

 

 

So things are going well then.

 

 

 As per the description of the COVID-19 Coronavirus forum:

 

A forum dedicated to information and discussion related to the current pandemic in Thailand. This is not for conspiracy theories or any form of political discussion. If your topic is region/location specific, please use that specific forum.

 

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