House and condo prices

[chrisandsu]

Out of curiosity how is the housing market there? I know the tourist areas are affected but are the prices holding steady ? Are they going up in the office/industrial areas where normal every day Thais live ? The reason I ask is because house prices have exploded where I live (west coast USA) and my friend that lives near Vancouver  BC says the same thing and then my family in the UK are also saying the same, the covid situation seems to of also stimulated millennials to get out of the city and buy in the suburbs which has forced prices up again  . Are we in for a massive bubble again  or is it inflation due to the massive stimulus borrowing ?  Is Thailand seeing the same thing or is it a western phenomenon? 

[mstevens]

Same thing here in New Zealand (and Australia) where property prices are soaring.

 

As for Thailand, the property market does not function as property markets do in the West. Properties in prime and highly desirable locations do go up in price, there's always demand for them. In the suburbs, especially unremarkable suburbs / areas, perhaps not so much. I imagine that the lack of regulations which means you can largely buy a piece of land and build on it is something of a handbrake on prices rising fast.

 

For sure, loss of employment could make keeping up with payments for their property tough for some Thais....maybe that might cause some properties to be offloaded at less than what was paid for them. But then I do seem to recall that repossessing property in Thailand can take years....so who knows?

[chrisandsu]

2 minutes ago, mstevens said:

Same thing here in New Zealand (and Australia) where property prices are soaring.

 

As for Thailand, the property market does not function as property markets do in the West. Properties in prime and highly desirable locations do go up in price, there's always demand for them. In the suburbs, especially unremarkable suburbs / areas, perhaps not so much. I imagine that the lack of regulations which means you can largely buy a piece of land and build on it is something of a handbrake on prices rising fast.

 

For sure, loss of employment could make keeping up with payments for their property tough for some Thais....maybe that might cause some properties to be offloaded at less than what was paid for them. But then I do seem to recall that repossessing property in Thailand can take years....so who knows?

Honestly I have never known anything like it ! My unremarkable house has doubled in price in less then 10 years ! I know interest rates are low and there is high foreign investment but who the hell can afford these mortgages ? We are either going to be really house poor or the whole housing market is going to collapse . It worries me . 

[mstevens]

6 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

Honestly I have never known anything like it ! My unremarkable house has doubled in price in less then 10 years ! I know interest rates are low and there is high foreign investment but who the hell can afford these mortgages ? We are either going to be really house poor or the whole housing market is going to collapse . It worries me . 

 

It's the same here in New Zealand where prices have moved so much that I have thought about selling. Houses are going up by around $12,000 / month and have been for some time. The problem is if you sell then you have to buy in the same market i.e. all other houses have gone up in price. Sure makes me think about selling up and moving to Thailand while prices are at these crazy levels and selling like hot cakes - no sooner do you put it on the market than you have multiple offers coming in.

 

[chrisandsu]

3 hours ago, mstevens said:

 

It's the same here in New Zealand where prices have moved so much that I have thought about selling. Houses are going up by around $12,000 / month and have been for some time. The problem is if you sell then you have to buy in the same market i.e. all other houses have gone up in price. Sure makes me think about selling up and moving to Thailand while prices are at these crazy levels and selling like hot cakes - no sooner do you put it on the market than you have multiple offers coming in.

 

It’s exactly like that here . My neighbour put his house on the market and got 15 offers in two days and went $125k over asking ! Your right selling up and moving away is the only option . I have kids here so can’t move and like you If I sold I’d never be able to afford another house . It’s a really weird situation .  

[Hanaguma]

Same situation in Canada.  My mother's rather everyday 1950s bungalow, located 90 minutes from Toronto, sold for 800k last spring. Multiple offers above asking, no renovations done by us. The family who bought were trying to escape from even higher prices nearer to the city, and wanted to live in a house instead of an apartment so their kids had a back yard to play. in.  

[soi3eddie]

No price rises here in Thailand. Some discount deals available on new units but not much. Better chances of price reductions from western sellers who must offload their Thai property (condos and possibly company held assets). Bangkok rents are down but some stubborn landlords will not reduce - just had our condo AGM this morning and one owner told me his condo here has been vacant over 1 year. He's still asking at least 40% above current proper value IMO.

 

As for UK property (possibly AUS, USA, CAN too): Boom! wait until all the stimulus and money printing stops or interest rates rise. Asset price inflation in the west has been ramptant during the pandemic. Fundamentals don't add up and once all the support is withdrawn the day of reckoning will soon follow. Add to this; evictions from rented property have been banned until 31st May 2021 (many cases of no rent paid for 6 months or longer). A large number of buy-to-let properties will come on the market once those tenants are evicted (due to landlords facing higher taxation and long voids). Unemployment will rise further as furlough payments end. Lenders restricting loans to buy and increased application scrutiny of affordability. UK property is way, way overpriced and ready for a correction.  I own 33% and 50% respectively in two properties in the UK and to be sold in the next 12 months. I'm just hoping that the market doesn't implode before then.

 

Edited April 4, 2021 by soi3eddie

[ukrules]

If there's a mass exodus from the big cities into the suburbs then how are sales doing in the big cities?

 

Are people buying second homes or dumping their city homes permanently?

 

If it's the latter then things shouldn't be quite so great in the cities in the future.

[chrisandsu]

31 minutes ago, ukrules said:

If there's a mass exodus from the big cities into the suburbs then how are sales doing in the big cities?

 

Are people buying second homes or dumping their city homes permanently?

 

If it's the latter then things shouldn't be quite so great in the cities in the future.

Mainly condos being dumped in the cities and a lot of office bods have been working from home and figured it’s better to work from home in a big house and garden in the suburbs then a cramped condo in the city . All building materials have gone sky high too so the inventory is really low . Honestly the world is going to get hit very soon and if this happens we are all in big trouble . 

[chrisandsu]

2 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

No price rises here in Thailand. Some discount deals available on new units but not much. Better chances of price reductions from western sellers who must offload their Thai property (condos and possibly company held assets). Bangkok rents are down but some stubborn landlords will not reduce - just had our condo AGM this morning and one owner told me his condo here has been vacant over 1 year. He's still asking at least 40% above current proper value IMO.

 

As for UK property (possibly AUS, USA, CAN too): Boom! wait until all the stimulus and money printing stops or interest rates rise. Asset price inflation in the west has been ramptant during the pandemic. Fundamentals don't add up and once all the support is withdrawn the day of reckoning will soon follow. Add to this; evictions from rented property have been banned until 31st May 2021 (many cases of no rent paid for 6 months or longer). A large number of buy-to-let properties will come on the market once those tenants are evicted (due to landlords facing higher taxation and long voids). Unemployment will rise further as furlough payments end. Lenders restricting loans to buy and increased application scrutiny of affordability. UK property is way, way overpriced and ready for a correction.  I own 33% and 50% respectively in two properties in the UK and to be sold in the next 12 months. I'm just hoping that the market doesn't implode before then.

 

If I was you I’d sell right now and sit on the money . It’s what I’m thinking of doing . At the moment I have about $500k equity in my house . I think I might sell and rent . Problem is will I ever be able to get back on the property ladder ? It’s scary times . 

[soi3eddie]

47 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

If I was you I’d sell right now and sit on the money . It’s what I’m thinking of doing . At the moment I have about $500k equity in my house . I think I might sell and rent . Problem is will I ever be able to get back on the property ladder ? It’s scary times . 

If I could sell now I would do. Timings are due to divorce and inheritance. Earliest can market would be July this year. I'm not sure selling and renting is the best idea though. A home with equity and minimal mortgage is a good situation. 

 

[chrisandsu]

4 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

If I could sell now I would do. Timings are due to divorce and inheritance. Earliest can market would be July this year. I'm not sure selling and renting is the best idea though. A home with equity and minimal mortgage is a good situation. 

 

It is . But what happens if the values drop by 50%? I could buy back and have no mortgage ? It’s a gamble for sure 

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

It is . But what happens if the values drop by 50%? I could buy back and have no mortgage ? It’s a gamble for sure 

 

If you're in the US, you could re-fi, suck all the money out, then if the market goes tits-up the taxpayers will bail you out...

[chrisandsu]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

 

If you're in the US, you could re-fi, suck all the money out, then if the market goes tits-up the taxpayers will bail you out...

The tax payer won’t bail me out . They will bail the banks out before the bail me out like they did in 08 . 

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, chrisandsu said:

The tax payer won’t bail me out . They will bail the banks out before the bail me out like they did in 08 . 

 

Plenty of individuals got bailed out in '08, not just the banks...

[chrisandsu]

8 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

Plenty of individuals got bailed out in '08, not just the banks...

Everyday joes ? I do remember people having to short sale and effectively ruining their credit for 7 years.  I think the impending collapse is going to be worse then 08 

[donx]

On 4/4/2021 at 10:43 AM, Yellowtail said:

 

If you're in the US, you could re-fi, suck all the money out, then if the market goes tits-up the taxpayers will bail you out...

I agree. If chrisandsu has $500K in equity as stated and is worried about the future value, do a refi. He should get a very low interest rate. One thing to consider is the tax implications for doing this.

[chrisandsu]

24 minutes ago, donx said:

I agree. If chrisandsu has $500K in equity as stated and is worried about the future value, do a refi. He should get a very low interest rate. One thing to consider is the tax implications for doing this.

Yes I done that at the beginning of the year but didn’t take any money out . I knocked 5 years off my mortgage (was originally 30 [email protected]% interest rate) I now have a 15 year at 3% im paying the same amount and knocked 5 years off ! Saving about $150k .