Thailand reports 789 new COVID-19 cases, 1 more death

[10baht]

Missing #37 and 38

[Danderman123]

I would tend to believe there are more COVID deaths than is reported, but the rumor mill is pretty powerful - if anyone has COVID, everyone knows it for miles around. So, how are people dying without anyone knowing?

[Moonlover]

9 hours ago, LosLobo said:

Try ringing Bumrungrad for a Covid test or a room.

 

TallGuyJohninBKK will vouch for this.

That's your 'evidence'  is it? Please stop wasting my time.

 

Stay safe.

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I would tend to believe there are more COVID deaths than is reported, but the rumor mill is pretty powerful - if anyone has COVID, everyone knows it for miles around. So, how are people dying without anyone knowing?

Agree but then thats assuming these people had been tested, we are not talking about cities only here but all the remote villages and provinces in Thailand. However there may also be other reasons of course for higher than average deaths its not only due to covid.

[rabas]

59 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I would tend to believe there are more COVID deaths than is reported, but the rumor mill is pretty powerful - if anyone has COVID, everyone knows it for miles around. So, how are people dying without anyone knowing?

So true.

 

There is some excess death in many countries. The US now says deaths may have been under counted by ~30%.  Ecuador, at its peak estimated that 2/3 of all covid deaths were in the home. Ecuador was another mass grave country.

 

But Thailand, 100 times the actual recorded deaths?  No.  I have not seen or heard of a single suspected covid case in one year. I mingle with Thai and stay in touch with a sprawling family of 5o.  The only cases I've heard of are from overseas friends and family.

 

Edited April 11, 2021 by rabas

[Danderman123]

56 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Agree but then thats assuming these people had been tested, we are not talking about cities only here but all the remote villages and provinces in Thailand. However there may also be other reasons of course for higher than average deaths its not only due to covid.

That’s my point: when someone dies in the village, everyone knows about it. Word gets out. If they die of an unknown respiratory disease, people can put 2+2 together, especially if others get infected. Soon, the whole province knows about it.

[Bkk Brian]

22 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

That’s my point: when someone dies in the village, everyone knows about it. Word gets out. If they die of an unknown respiratory disease, people can put 2+2 together, especially if others get infected. Soon, the whole province knows about it.

Well its happening in other countries, huge amounts of excess deaths that were not attributed to any cause and went unnoticed but spiked when the pandemic started.

 

I'm not trying to convince you other wise but what I can say is that excess deaths are generally used as a more reliable way to estimate the number of deaths in a pandemic not only from covid deaths but from all causes. This is what governments around the world use and publish.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

The correlation of excess deaths to virus outbreaks in other countries is clear is you look at the charts from the same source, for instance the UK is now reporting a below average excess obviously due to the vaccines and lockdowns.

 

All I'm doing is presenting the stats and to be honest I would also find it extremely unlikely that there were thousands of covid deaths in a given month that went un noticed in Thailand, however in a year maybe? The data used to present these stats are from the same sources so if we believe the UK stats why do we not believe the Thailand stats?

 

"All-cause mortality data is from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Short-term Mortality Fluctuations project and the World Mortality Dataset (WMD). Both sources are updated weekly. We do not use the data from some countries in WMD because they fail to meet the following data quality criteria: 1) at least four years of historical data;"

 

As I said however I accept and respect your viewpoint.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

You are aware even if you have recovered, you can get it again.  Especially the variants.  And, be asymptomatic and spread the virus.  Stunning you're not aware of this. 

 

Same is true with those who've had the jab.  You can still shed the virus.

Yes I'm well aware about 100 people in the world have been reinfected I'm also aware that 1 in 100,000  die from the Astra Zeneca vaccine which means that out of the 30 million people vaccinated in the UK there have been many deaths yet I've not heard of anyone person has died from being reinfected with the virus in fact I understand that those who do get reinfected have much milder symptoms so I know that I'll take my chances with my own immune response.It's a difficult choice to make to risk the 1 in 100,000 chance of dying from the jab or take the chance with getting infected with the virus.What way are you going with Jeff?Oh I'm surprised you are still being stunned by my lack of awareness after going toe to toe for 12 months.HaHa! 

[ThailandRyan]

967 cases today, just on the channel 3 HD live news.  Another uptick.

[Jeffr2]

22 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Yes I'm well aware about 100 people in the world have been reinfected I'm also aware that 1 in 100,000  die from the Astra Zeneca vaccine which means that out of the 30 million people vaccinated in the UK there have been many deaths yet I've not heard of anyone person has died from being reinfected with the virus in fact I understand that those who do get reinfected have much milder symptoms so I know that I'll take my chances with my own immune response.It's a difficult choice to make to risk the 1 in 100,000 chance of dying from the jab or take the chance with getting infected with the virus.What way are you going with Jeff?Oh I'm surprised you are still being stunned by my lack of awareness after going toe to toe for 12 months.HaHa! 

100 people in the world?  Many countries are not reporting.  So your math is dodgy.  You rely on dodgy published numbers for your arguments.  This virus is new.  Who knows what the future holds for those who were infected.  Or for the new variants that are popping up on a regular basis.

 

For me?  I'll take what ever jab is offered here.  Chinese or AZ.  I'll take it when offered so we can reach herd immunity quicker and get this over with. 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

100 people in the world?  Many countries are not reporting.  So your math is dodgy.  You rely on dodgy published numbers for your arguments.  This virus is new.  Who knows what the future holds for those who were infected.  Or for the new variants that are popping up on a regular basis.

 

For me?  I'll take what ever jab is offered here.  Chinese or AZ.  I'll take it when offered so we can reach herd immunity quicker and get this over with. 

Well hurry up the because I'm already in the herd and wait impatiently for all you uncleaned to get you rear end into gear and join the herd what's the hold up?

[Jeffr2]

28 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

967 cases today, just on the channel 3 HD live news.  Another uptick.

Scary.

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld

 

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Well hurry up the because I'm already in the herd and wait impatiently for all you uncleaned to get you rear end into gear and join the herd what's the hold up?

How do you know?  Did you get covid?  As you know, herd immunity naturally will cost millions of lives.  You don't want that, do you?

Edited April 11, 2021 by Jeffr2

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

Scary.

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld

 

I don't like that I and many others were right just over a week ago when we saw what was occurring. Very scary to see where this could and might go because of an abstract failure on this governments part.  I am sure they are cowering in their self imposed quarantine.

[rabas]

34 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Yes I'm well aware about 100 people in the world have been reinfected I'm also aware that 1 in 100,000  die from the Astra Zeneca vaccine which means that out of the 30 million people vaccinated in the UK there have been many deaths yet I've not heard of anyone person has died from being reinfected with the virus in fact I understand that those who do get reinfected have much milder symptoms so I know that I'll take my chances with my own immune response.It's a difficult choice to make to risk the 1 in 100,000 chance of dying from the jab or take the chance with getting infected with the virus.What way are you going with Jeff?Oh I'm surprised you are still being stunned by my lack of awareness after going toe to toe for 12 months.HaHa! 

 

".A pre-print paper tracking the likelihood of being infected with the new variant, which emerged in Manaus, Brazil, in late 2020, indicates that it “eludes the human immune response” triggered by previous variants. Reinfection is therefore likely."

Is disease from reinfection more severe?

"Since the 1960s, scientists have known that when some are infected with a virus for a second time, antibodies created to fend off the disease in the first instance can end up inadvertently compounding its effectiveness on reinfection known as antibody dependent enhancement (ADE).

 

To date, most of the SARS-CoV-2 reinfections that have been reported have been milder than first encounters with the virus, although some have been more harmful—and two people have died as a result."

 

All from here:  https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n99

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

".A pre-print paper tracking the likelihood of being infected with the new variant, which emerged in Manaus, Brazil, in late 2020, indicates that it “eludes the human immune response” triggered by previous variants. Reinfection is therefore likely."

Is disease from reinfection more severe?

"Since the 1960s, scientists have known that when some are infected with a virus for a second time, antibodies created to fend off the disease in the first instance can end up inadvertently compounding its effectiveness on reinfection known as antibody dependent enhancement (ADE).

 

To date, most of the SARS-CoV-2 reinfections that have been reported have been milder than first encounters with the virus, although some have been more harmful—and two people have died as a result."

 

All from here:  https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n99

Not very comforting is it.....

[metisdead]

Some posts using profane acronyms have been removed:

 

8.) You will not post disruptive or inflammatory messages, vulgarities, obscenities or profanities.

[Danderman123]

11 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Well its happening in other countries, huge amounts of excess deaths that were not attributed to any cause and went unnoticed but spiked when the pandemic started.

 

I'm not trying to convince you other wise but what I can say is that excess deaths are generally used as a more reliable way to estimate the number of deaths in a pandemic not only from covid deaths but from all causes. This is what governments around the world use and publish.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

The correlation of excess deaths to virus outbreaks in other countries is clear is you look at the charts from the same source, for instance the UK is now reporting a below average excess obviously due to the vaccines and lockdowns.

 

All I'm doing is presenting the stats and to be honest I would also find it extremely unlikely that there were thousands of covid deaths in a given month that went un noticed in Thailand, however in a year maybe? The data used to present these stats are from the same sources so if we believe the UK stats why do we not believe the Thailand stats?

 

"All-cause mortality data is from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Short-term Mortality Fluctuations project and the World Mortality Dataset (WMD). Both sources are updated weekly. We do not use the data from some countries in WMD because they fail to meet the following data quality criteria: 1) at least four years of historical data;"

 

As I said however I accept and respect your viewpoint.

Here’s why Thailand is different:

 

When hundreds of thousands of people are dying (per official figures), if the real number is 100,000 deaths higher than the official number, most people could not tell the difference.

 

However, if the official number is 98 deaths, but the real number is 10,000 dead, then, yes, people will notice clusters of deaths in their area and complain.

 

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Here’s why Thailand is different:

 

When hundreds of thousands of people are dying (per official figures), if the real number is 100,000 deaths higher than the official number, most people could not tell the difference.

 

However, if the official number is 98 deaths, but the real number is 10,000 dead, then, yes, people will notice clusters of deaths in their area and complain.

 

But in my original post I never said how many deaths in the excess as I just don't know, I showed a chart with percentage......thats it. Take it, leave it, up to you. When we start getting into the complexities of the methodology and how any deaths are known about in the community it becomes endless and boring not least to other posters reading this. So to wrap up you don't believe the stats from Our World in Data. Ok no problem.

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

But in my original post I never said how many deaths in the excess as I just don't know, I showed a chart with percentage......thats it. Take it, leave it, up to you. When we start getting into the complexities of the methodology and how any deaths are known about in the community it becomes endless and boring not least to other posters reading this. So to wrap up you don't believe the stats from Our World in Data. Ok no problem.

Your chart was fairly clear in showing excess deaths in Thailand in the range of 10,000 deaths in the COVID period.

 

My problem with the chart is that the accuracy of mortality figures requires time; 2020 figures and later probably don’t have the precision of data from 2019 and before. Since we are talking about differences of a few percent, it’s best to wait to see the final numbers.

[Bkk Brian]

19 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Your chart was fairly clear in showing excess deaths in Thailand in the range of 10,000 deaths in the COVID period.

 

My problem with the chart is that the accuracy of mortality figures requires time; 2020 figures and later probably don’t have the precision of data from 2019 and before. Since we are talking about differences of a few percent, it’s best to wait to see the final numbers.

Fair enough although of course the 0% mark was the mean average over the previous five years as the comparison. Each method of gathering data has its holes but with a lack of other Stat websites offering this real life, updated information then there's nothing else we can delve into unfortunately. Anyway I'll leave you with the better interpretation of the limitations of data gathering, how and why they do it that way in the screenshot below. There is also the long winded full methods here https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality

Edited April 11, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Fair enough although of course the 0% mark was the mean average over the previous five years as the comparison. Each method of gathering data has its holes but with a lack of other Stat websites offering this real life, updated information then there's nothing else we can delve into unfortunately. Anyway I'll leave you with the better interpretation of the limitations of data gathering, how and why they do it that way. But I get your point.

Oh, I understand all that. It’s the question of the bureaucrats needing time to sort out the duplicates, the mis-spelled names, and bad data in general.

 

Having said that, there probably is some increase in the number of deaths in metropolitan areas featuring pneumonia and various respiratory failures.

[Stargeezr]

I believe that Thailand fudged the number of covid deaths right from the beginning, and still does. They are not

the only country to do this but maybe one day in the future a more accurate number will be admitted to.  555  I doubt that

as well.  I will be happy when every one in Thailand and most other places in the world have given the majority of

their people the vaccine against this killer virus. It will take years to get all the poorer countries and refugees in their

large camps the jabs, but eventually around the world, enough people will be protected by a vaccine so that there

will be fewer people dying from the corona virus, or any of its variants. 

Geezer

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Oh, I understand all that. It’s the question of the bureaucrats needing time to sort out the duplicates, the mis-spelled names, and bad data in general.

 

Having said that, there probably is some increase in the number of deaths in metropolitan areas featuring pneumonia and various respiratory failures.

One of the problems is the visuals for me. For instance, if you click in the UK on the chart and display its excess deaths, then the data is updated weekly, this gives a nice trend line that can be followed which can then be compared to positive case counts and official deaths from covid.

 

With the Thailand data its only updated once a month so trends lines are very difficult to follow and it tends only to be spikes. Anyway I agree we need more time. I believe their are some unaccounted deaths but I don't believe it runs into to the thousands. I don't think we'll ever know but thats the same for all countries.