Lockdown proposed for Bangkok and five other Deep Red zone provinces

[BernieOnTour]

Just now, bluedoc said:

It’s blatantly obvious that the government is controlling the numbers.

 

Same as everywhere in those countries under “western” influence (compare PR China and Russia).

 

If you look into the official documentation, we had before in average ~ 20,000 PCR-tests per week, on Apri 17th, it were already 55,000.

 

What sensivity and specifity of PCR-tests mean and how they effect false positives and false negatives, should be meanwhile clear to everyone a little bit interested, how to deal with Covid ...

 

However, there are also other important components influencing the results:

- do they check in parallel for 3, 2, or only 1 representative DNA parts of the virus, are 3, 2, or only 1 representative DNA part sufficient to come to a positive result?

- do they use a sensible cT-value of 25 (multiplication of ~ 34,000,000) or use instead a cT-value of 45 (multiplication of ~ 35,000,000,000,000), as before done in Germany  ?

 

[Rimmer]

Some misleading posts that run contrary to government guidelines also replies have been removed

[Bkk Brian]

41 minutes ago, BernieOnTour said:

 

Same as everywhere in those countries under “western” influence (compare PR China and Russia).

 

If you look into the official documentation, we had before in average ~ 20,000 PCR-tests per week, on Apri 17th, it were already 55,000.

 

What sensivity and specifity of PCR-tests mean and how they effect false positives and false negatives, should be meanwhile clear to everyone a little bit interested, how to deal with Covid ...

 

However, there are also other important components influencing the results:

- do they check in parallel for 3, 2, or only 1 representative DNA parts of the virus, are 3, 2, or only 1 representative DNA part sufficient to come to a positive result?

- do they use a sensible cT-value of 25 (multiplication of ~ 34,000,000) or use instead a cT-value of 45 (multiplication of ~ 35,000,000,000,000), as before done in Germany  ?

 

and what purpose would there be for controlling the numbers in the west?

[0815]

22 hours ago, ukrules said:

I wonder if a lockdown goes far enough here?

 

They should be prevented from leaving the locked down area and entering other provinces.

 

I live in Hua Hin where many people who live in Bangkok have holiday homes and I have to wonder how many 1000's of Bangkok based Thais will make their way to Hua Hin bringing COVID with them when they come.

 

Look what happened last time someone with COVID came to Hua Hin from Bangkok - it was reported on this forum earlier today that 90% of the 1034 Hua Hin cases were related to a single event (a concert) attended by at least one infected person who previously visited the Thonglor hotspot in Bangkok.

 

Keep them out of the provinces!

 

Who with a little common sense would go to a concert now ?
Can't fix stupid.

[onekoolguy]

This is not going to end until a sufficient number of people have been vaccinated! Concentrate on that and it will finally end!

[Mike k]

4 day weekend coming up they need a lock down, curfew travel ban close malls and non essential stores for about 6 days might help the numbers from going up 

[kwilco]

23 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

I think a lockdown is inevitable. 

 

But, lets not panic - the numbers in Thailand are still far far less than exist in our home countries. 

 

That said, the ‘whole numbers’ are somewhat irrelevant and simply depend on the amount of people tested. 

If Thailand were to test 100,000 random cases per day, how many of those would be positive. 

400,000 per day? how many of those?

Testing 3000 people per day who have symptoms or been exposed to someone with symptoms or have tested positive is a highly misleading observation / metric of the true picture of the Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand. 

 

 

Of far greater significance is: 

1) Number of People who have died because of Covid-19

2) Number of People in ICU because of Covid-19 (and available beds)

3) Number of serious Covid-19 cases (i.e. Number of people in hospitals requiring treatment for Covid-19)

 

 

Thailand still needs to concentrate on getting the Vaccines distributed as quickly as possible. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whilst you are right about Thailand's low numbers the situation gives cause for concern because Thailand has either through draconian measures or pure luck achieved this. The reasons are far from understood.

The problem is that the Thai healthcare system can't cope with even a moderate rise in numbers and the effects of this could be devastating, leading to a further dramatic rise.

Covid on a world scale is still increasing and there is no way Thailand can be complacent about this....there is no demonstrable reason it can't go the same way as India given the opportunity.

[Dont confuse me]

15 hours ago, smedly said:

 

OMG - you find numbers by testing 

 

please explain how you come to that conclusion 

 

I'm not getting it 

 

13 thousand tests a day versus 1 million tests a day 

 

sorry my friend how on earth you ..............................

 

Thailand needs to take a very close look at India right now were it is so bad that they have completely given up 

 

PS - last year I predicted on here that India would be a total covid train wreck, I wish I was wrong - horrific  

Absolutely correct, common sense dictates that of you test 1000 a day the maximum positive cases you can reliably report is 1000! 

The other possible 30,000 infected people walking about are not detected!

Just take a look at India they didn't take things too seriously at first.

 

[wwest5829]

On 4/28/2021 at 4:27 PM, holy cow cm said:

Here we go again. time to go out and double up on some food and alcohol again.

I am regularly keeping a month's worth of red wine in stock at home (heart medicine you know!).

[holy cow cm]

5 minutes ago, wwest5829 said:

I am regularly keeping a month's worth of red wine in stock at home (heart medicine you know!).

I'm down to my last bottle of a Cabernet Sauvignon for my tonight's festivities with a few beer chasers, and then need to stock back up. Heart and sanity medicine. 

[joe jadore]

On 4/28/2021 at 4:35 PM, richard_smith237 said:

I think a lockdown is inevitable. 

 

But, lets not panic - the numbers in Thailand are still far far less than exist in our home countries. 

 

That said, the ‘whole numbers’ are somewhat irrelevant and simply depend on the amount of people tested. 

If Thailand were to test 100,000 random cases per day, how many of those would be positive. 

400,000 per day? how many of those?

Testing 3000 people per day who have symptoms or been exposed to someone with symptoms or have tested positive is a highly misleading observation / metric of the true picture of the Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand. 

 

 

Of far greater significance is: 

1) Number of People who have died because of Covid-19

2) Number of People in ICU because of Covid-19 (and available beds)

3) Number of serious Covid-19 cases (i.e. Number of people in hospitals requiring treatment for Covid-19)

 

 

Thailand still needs to concentrate on getting the Vaccines distributed as quickly as possible. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A sensible take on the situation, above! Gov big shots got vaccinated months ago, then hid behind closed doors haggling over the prices of vaccines (& hoping Covid would go away), now Thailand is at the end of the queue. June are you serious Mr PM? Giddy up!

[Nanaplaza666]

6 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The flu is an order of magnitude less lethal than Covid-19. 

You should check the nr's of deaths from flu and those of covid , the order of magnitude will surprise you . But the flu has never been in the media like covid has . The flu is quit deadly as well .

[Nanaplaza666]

6 hours ago, Surelynot said:

No politicians, hi-sos or Chinese are dying........so where is the problem?

So only dumb people live forever ?? 

[brewsterbudgen]

Is there another thread, now that the "Deep red" restrictions have been announced?  Not a massive change, except that restaurants can only do take-out.  Malls can still open.

[Jiggo]

10 hours ago, Straight8 said:

 

Aussies would beg to differ with you on that one

 

On 4/28/2021 at 4:35 PM, richard_smith237 said:

I think a lockdown is inevitable. 

 

But, lets not panic - the numbers in Thailand are still far far less than exist in our home countries. 

 

That said, the ‘whole numbers’ are somewhat irrelevant and simply depend on the amount of people tested. 

If Thailand were to test 100,000 random cases per day, how many of those would be positive. 

400,000 per day? how many of those?

Testing 3000 people per day who have symptoms or been exposed to someone with symptoms or have tested positive is a highly misleading observation / metric of the true picture of the Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand. 

 

 

Of far greater significance is: 

1) Number of People who have died because of Covid-19

2) Number of People in ICU because of Covid-19 (and available beds)

3) Number of serious Covid-19 cases (i.e. Number of people in hospitals requiring treatment for Covid-19)

 

 

Thailand still needs to concentrate on getting the Vaccines distributed as quickly as possible. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

UK is in a far better position than Thailand now, also Australia and a few other country's, and could be heading to darker times if the ''Indian Flu'' breaks out. Time to change those tinted glasses....

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

You should check the nr's of deaths from flu and those of covid , the order of magnitude will surprise you . But the flu has never been in the media like covid has . The flu is quit deadly as well .

In the US, the worst flu season in the last decades killed 60,000 people. Normally, the number is 20,000 to 40,000.

 

Covid is about to claim victim 600,000. That is an order of magnitude.

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Dont confuse me said:

Absolutely correct, common sense dictates that of you test 1000 a day the maximum positive cases you can reliably report is 1000! 

The other possible 30,000 infected people walking about are not detected!

Just take a look at India they didn't take things too seriously at first.

 

There are 50,000 Covid tests in Thailand per day.

 

In Chonburi alone, 2,000 people were tested yesterday.

Edited April 29, 2021 by Danderman123

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

There are 50,000 Covid tests in Thailand per day.

So 4% testing positive.........say one in one in twenty........not good.

[Danderman123]

Just now, Surelynot said:

So 4% testing positive.........say one in one in twenty........not good.

A positivity rate of less than 5% indicates the infection rate is declining.

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

A positivity rate of less than 5% indicates the infection rate is declining.

So knife edge stuff!!!

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

A positivity rate of less than 5% indicates the infection rate is declining.

Here are the testing figures up till yesterday https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

The figure of 50k+ you refer to is from raw data that includes many repeat tests and cannot be used to determine accurate detection rates unless you want to speculate. The figures in the chart is actual people tested.

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here are the testing figures up till yesterday https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

The figure of 50k+ you refer to is from raw data that includes many repeat tests and cannot be used to determine accurate detection rates unless you want to speculate. The figures in the chart is actual people tested.

Yikes......around 10%

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here are the testing figures up till yesterday https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

The figure of 50k+ you refer to is from raw data that includes many repeat tests and cannot be used to determine accurate detection rates unless you want to speculate. The figures in the chart is actual people tested.

I don’t know which set of data is correct. But the chart above implies a positivity rate of more than 10%, which would be manifested by a spike in new cases.

 

As I said last week, numbers of new cases over time will tell us which testing dataset is correct. But your chart is incredible - high positivity with low growth in infection rate. It is unique, to say the least.

[Danderman123]

8 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

So knife edge stuff!!!

Yeah, the implication is a slow ramp down in new cases.

[sapson]

6 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

Nice thoughts, but wishful thinking even tho there are such people with many billions of DOLLARS...but they aren't ever giving up even ha-baht. 

 

I had one particular Thai billionaire in mind who would do well to increase his dwindling popularity among the covid stricken, restless and revolting people of his country!

Edited April 29, 2021 by sapson

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

I don’t know which set of data is correct. But the chart above implies a positivity rate of more than 10%, which would be manifested by a spike in new cases.

 

As I said last week, numbers of new cases over time will tell us which testing dataset is correct. But your chart is incredible - high positivity with low growth in infection rate. It is unique, to say the least.

Hardly unique, its a typical outbreak senario and reflects the data published by CCSA

 

That is if you want to go by official official data then this is the correct chart. Not sure why they would want to under estimate their own testing.

 

I can tell you the raw data includes repeat testing you can view the documentation yourself.

 

Its around a 10% detection rate however it does not mean its spiking, its stabilized over the week and hopefully will decrease.

[Danderman123]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Hardly unique, its a typical outbreak senario and reflects the data published by CCSA

 

That is if you want to go by official official data then this is the correct chart. Not sure why they would want to under estimate their own testing.

 

I can tell you the raw data includes repeat testing you can view the documentation yourself.

 

Its around a 10% detection rate however it does not mean its spiking, its stabilized over the week and hopefully will decrease.

Any positivity rate over 5% indicates an increase in infection rate. A positivity rate of 10% means “yikes”.

 

But we are not seeing growth in new infections.

 

The other dataset indicates a slight decrease in new infections, which is what we are seeing.

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Any positivity rate over 5% indicates an increase in infection rate. A positivity rate of 10% means “yikes”.

 

But we are not seeing growth in new infections.

 

The other dataset indicates a slight decrease in new infections, which is what we are seeing.

 

Any positivity rate over 5% indicates just that, its over 5%. It can decrease from 10 to 5 to 1 it depends which way its heading and as I already mentioned it is stablized if you do the math

 

Please point me to the link and relevant data set that you refer to which shows a decrease in detection rates?

[Susco]

17 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Any positivity rate over 5% indicates just that, its over 5%. It can decrease from 10 to 5 to 1 it depends which way its heading and as I already mentioned it is stablized if you do the math

 

Please point me to the link and relevant data set that you refer to which shows a decrease in detection rates?

 

A detection rate of 10% is astonishing, and makes it obvious that the virus is much wider spread than they want to make us believe.

 

Maybe soon they will switch to selective testing, and only test those they know that will be negative, to decrease the detection rate.

 

 

[Jonathan Swift]

On 4/28/2021 at 4:27 PM, holy cow cm said:

Here we go again. time to go out and double up on some food and alcohol again.

Good thing some of us aren't alcoholics and thus can manage to find our way to food, which has never been locked down, and never will be. Never found it difficult to enjoy life here, never needed to get pi$$ed to do so. I didn't come to Thailand for the booze. Feeling very sad for all the sorry drunks who can't get theirs. Wahhhhh. So build a still in your backyard, pay a visit to your local hardware store. BTW, I used to do it, used to be like you, I just stopped, 13 years ago. Feeling very healthy now at age 64.

Edited April 29, 2021 by Jonathan Swift