2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I beg to differ.

 

Random sampling of 1,000 people will produce a reasonably accurate positivity rate in the area sampled. So far, testing is seeing a positivity rate about 5%, which is consistent with actual case numbers.
 

Probably the reason they are focused on Klang Toey is that they found the cluster during random sampling.

 

 

The reason for the focus on The Klong Toey Cluster, is that the testing results are showing there to be a very near 10 % positivity rate. ( CCSA  - Friday )

So far, Thailand has not seen these kind of infection rates, and this could possibly mean one of the more virulent mutations, such as the Brazil or South Africa  mutations.

Or even possibly the new India Variant ( bit too early to tag that one possibly )

Without the correct management of the KT Cluster, infection rates are set to possibly rise Nationally, and would render the Health Service useless.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Registration for vaccinating the general public began on Saturday, with about 16 million people aged over 60 or those with pre-existing medical conditions getting priority. Retired expats living here who are not a part of the Thai social security system will have to wait until the end and accept whatever vaccines are leftover.

Fixed it for you, lol.

9 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

Some 5-10% of daily cases end up in ICU. Most of those intubated in ICU never made it out alive. See how many are there, and how many more are added daily. Most of those will be listed under fatalities over the next weeks and months.

With these daily numbers the deaths will keep on increasing. ICU's and covid wards will be full. New field hospitals will need erecting daily. Stabilizing numbers here is not an option to avoid this, it needs to decrease rapidly.

 

First shot of AstraZeneca gives 96.7% immunity against Covid-19, study shows

 

A senior virologist at Chulalongkorn University said on Monday that after receiving the first jab of the AstraZeneca vaccine, people develop a 96.7 per cent immunity against Covid-19.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/life/40000492

 

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Deaths lag new infections by up to 3 weeks, so there may still be 20 deaths per day in early June.

About 1-1.5 percent of the daily infections will die...so do the math. Nothing surprising here.

1 hour ago, DerbyDan said:

June feels to long to start vaccinations. Immunity takes a couple weeks even after you get the jab. Bkk is a major hub and you can't really keep this stuff out with travel controls unless you lockdown everything before it's a problem like Vietnam did. It starts circulating before you hear about cases and deaths.

 

I would get the vaccine as soon as possible and not wait until June.

You need 2 shots for these ,AZ and the vacc from China to reach their full efficacy. When your walking around with only  1 shot, you still must take precautions !

Edited May 3, 20215 yr by riclag

20 minutes ago, pantsonfire said:

f more lockdowns occur, suicides will be higher than covid deaths.  The number of thais i spoken to who are not blue collar workers are suffering. Cant pay rent, cant buy food because they are not working.  Finding every possible way to find money but its becoming very difficult as more businesses become closed.  

 

Yes the effects of the virus on the working classes is catastrophic but you cannot ignore covid and carry on regardless with no restrictions.

 

 The responsibility falls squarely with the government to provide for its people in these exceptional circumstances and align a containment policy for covid.

 

Sadly this is not a real elected government and crisis management experience and moral obligations to its people may be in short supply.

Once I reached the 2nd paragraph and read "strict boarder controls" my eyes began glazing over ????????????

Edited May 3, 20215 yr by SwampyThai
Incorrect spelling

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Correct, but Thais do what Thais want to do in the name of visiting family, eating together and having Sanuk.  You can tak to them until you are blue in the face, but in the end they do what they want.  They live for the moment and the day, never truly thinking about the future until it smacks them in the face.

Yes many hardworking Thais enjoyed their ONE week off per year...some even had the temerity to travel to visit family and friends. I think it's a little too easy for comfortable working and retired expats to blame the Thais...and it's the Thais who are paying for it. (I don't recall seeing any foreign nationals among the dead...there may be a few but not many.)

32 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

National and local testing is showing that the number of new infections is stable. But, it’s possible that there is a pocket or two that could cause future problems.

More so it shows that the amount of testing is stable.

If 5% of the number of people tested in Bangkok are positive its one thing.  If at the same time 5% of those tested in Con Buri are positive, that's two things, Chaing Mai three things etc etc.  Then you bolt on an R rate above 1 and you potentially have serious problems.

 

9 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Yes many hardworking Thais enjoyed their ONE week off per year...some even had the temerity to travel to visit family and friends. I think it's a little too easy for comfortable working and retired expats to blame the Thais...and it's the Thais who are paying for it. (I don't recall seeing any foreign nationals among the dead...there may be a few but not many.)

At least one 91 year old Brit so far that was listed.  Yes We blame the Government, but seeing what was happening and listening to the news many believed it was okay especially with the Good PM promoting travel like he did.  However, many did not obviously pay heed to the warnings and traveled and either passed on the virus unknowingly or were infected by friends and family and the spread continued.

26 minutes ago, anchadian said:

 

First shot of AstraZeneca gives 96.7% immunity against Covid-19, study shows

 

A senior virologist at Chulalongkorn University said on Monday that after receiving the first jab of the AstraZeneca vaccine, people develop a 96.7 per cent immunity against Covid-19.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/life/40000492

 

 

I've had my first shot of AZ in the UK, but it's more than a little suspect that this claim outstrips any other study on the effectiveness of this vaccine. In fact, the study was based on just 61 people which is hardly a significant sample size.

2 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

More so it shows that the amount of testing is stable.

If 5% of the number of people tested in Bangkok are positive its one thing.  If at the same time 5% of those tested in Con Buri are positive, that's two things, Chaing Mai three things etc etc.  Then you bolt on an R rate above 1 and you potentially have serious problems.

 

As I said, random sampling gives an estimate of the positivity rate in the area sampled. 1,000 samples can provide a reasonable estimate for Bangkok if samples are taken City-wide. But, that survey might have a large margin of error for specific regions, like Klong Toey.

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

As I said, random sampling gives an estimate of the positivity rate in the area sampled. 1,000 samples can provide a reasonable estimate for Bangkok if samples are taken City-wide. But, that survey might have a large margin of error for specific regions, like Klong Toey.

ok

so where do they find the people they sample? Do you know?

I wonder how many of these numbers had been inocculated?

There were some interesting graphics in this morning's TH language update from the Ministry of Public Health. Most never get translated into EN, but for some like this one, you can get the idea (picture).

 

For some reason only updated thru Sunday (not today), it compares the national totals of new daily COVID cases represented by the blue line columns, with the daily new cases in Bangkok, represented by the red line.

 

The way it looks to me, while the national numbers have been rebounding in the past few days, Bangkok has been on a pretty steady downward trend for more than a week now, although Bangkok's numbers ticked back up some today (though not yet reflected on this chart).

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/317929963158668/

 

7 minutes ago, DJBenz said:

 

I've had my first shot of AZ in the UK, but it's more than a little suspect that this claim outstrips any other study on the effectiveness of this vaccine. In fact, the study was based on just 61 people which is hardly a significant sample size.

What a dangerous statement to make!! Outrageous to suggest that, we all know and its documented everywhere thats just not true, while the first shot gives good immunity its certainly not 96.7%. Not even with 2 shots! 

4 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

ok

so where do they find the people they sample? Do you know?

The announcements are always vague on sampling procedures.

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

As I said, random sampling gives an estimate of the positivity rate in the area sampled. 1,000 samples can provide a reasonable estimate for Bangkok if samples are taken City-wide. But, that survey might have a large margin of error for specific regions, like Klong Toey.

I think you made a mistake there, 1000 samples taken in Bangkok will give absolutely no reference or accurate picture of infections in a city with millions of people. Make that a few hundred thousand tests then yes, that will give an estimate.

They also had a summary of their outreach COVID testing in the Khlong Toei area thus far showing a 7+ percent overall positivity rate among those tested, though the sample peaked higher to almost 12 percent in the most recent tally on the chart from April 30. 1336 people tested, 99 positives from those samples.

 

 

They also had a graphic showing the general locations of the Khlong Toei clusters thus far that have totaled more than 300 COVID cases:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/317929963158668/

 

 

Edited May 3, 20215 yr by TallGuyJohninBKK

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The announcements are always vague on sampling procedures.

Lol - so you don't actually know that <5% is from a random sample?

mmmm.......????

26 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

28 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I don't recall seeing any foreign nationals among the dead...there may be a few but not many.)

 

A ninety plus British gentleman died in Hua Hin from Covid a few days ago.

18 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

At least one 91 year old Brit so far that was listed.

 

There was also an elderly Indian woman who died of COVID awhile back...if memory serves.  That was when the government was publicly reporting the details of the relatively few deaths.

 

Now, with 30 plus in a day, they're only giving a general recap summary, and no individual case specifics, generally speaking.

 

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I think you made a mistake there, 1000 samples taken in Bangkok will give absolutely no reference or accurate picture of infections in a city with millions of people. Make that a few hundred thousand tests then yes, that will give an estimate.

What you are looking for here is the margin of error, ie resolution of a sample  of 1,000 tests. I am suggesting that 1,000 samples, if taken citywide is enough to get a handle on positivity.

8 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

Lol - so you don't actually know that <5% is from a random sample?

mmmm.......????

I was asked how samples are generated, not the number of samples, which is known.

10 minutes ago, worrab said:

A ninety plus British gentleman died in Hua Hin from Covid a few days ago.

Yes ThailandRyan pointed that out...so that's one...and of course in the highest risk cohort.

Edited May 3, 20215 yr by Pattaya Spotter

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Yes ThailandRyan pointed that out...so that's one...and of course in the highest risk cohort.

in this wave or the last year?

 

The MoPH also had a heat map chart for Bangkok showing where the larger numbers of COVID cases are surfacing within the province during April through April 29. Looks like the Huai Khwang, Din Daeng and Bang Khen districts are at the top of the list.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/317929963158668/

 

Edited May 3, 20215 yr by TallGuyJohninBKK

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Correct, but Thais do what Thais want to do in the name of visiting family, eating together and having Sanuk.  You can tak to them until you are blue in the face, but in the end they do what they want.  They live for the moment and the day, never truly thinking about the future until it smacks them in the face.

It's like when you are driving your car and someone is cutting in front of you and you beep the horn, and they still keep coming so you beep it again. They just do it their way, like the fames song.

1 hour ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

That charge, while immeasurably stupid, was incredibly brave, an attribute that cannot be associated with this administration.  

I agree with your first part and the last part.