Thailand reports 1,763 new coronavirus cases, 27 new deaths

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

And proactive testing at the Municipality School 2, Thanon Udon Thani yesterday, examined a total of 1,139 cases, including 938 Rapid Test cases, 188 PCRs, and 13 others. Found an infected person.

 

from a couple of days ago, very low infection rate. I noticed that the hospitals were reporting low patient levels.

 

You forgot to add that the one infection was at the school and classified as

 

"proactive testing revealed in low-risk groups"

 

In Udon Thani, 11 additional cases were detected and:

 

The infected person was found as a mother, aunt, a husband, aunt, two aunts, a total of 6, and another aunt’s child sent the case to Songkhla Province and still had to check for the second high-risk person: father-younger-niece. If this case cannot be found, chances are it is a large cluster. “

[sirineou]

3 hours ago, Petey11 said:

Maybe they are in a panic because they know it's worse than the figures show, CCSA even said they don't have full picture.

Any people dying is bad, but as a percentage of population ,Even if it is twice as bad as they say it is , Thailand is still doing better than most other countries. even if you only look at the latest daily covid results. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

I think they are panicking because they were doing so well they neglected to secure adequate vaccine in the hope that covid would flair out on it's own , and they would be able to get the vaccine cheap when some of the major producer countries were fully vaccinated, and now they in fear  of an India like third wave. 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

You forgot to add that the one infection was at the school and classified as

 

"proactive testing revealed in low-risk groups"

 

In Udon Thani, 11 additional cases were detected and:

 

The infected person was found as a mother, aunt, a husband, aunt, two aunts, a total of 6, and another aunt’s child sent the case to Songkhla Province and still had to check for the second high-risk person: father-younger-niece. If this case cannot be found, chances are it is a large cluster. “

Because I am looking for numbers of random tests, as opposed to numbers from people who presented at the hospital, or close contact testing.

 

I am not sure if “active case finding” = “proactive testing”, the language is a bit vague.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Because I am looking for numbers of random tests, as opposed to numbers from people who presented at the hospital, or close contact testing.

 

I am not sure if “active case finding” = “proactive testing”, the language is a bit vague.

Same

 

Looking at various articles throughout the provinces is not exactly a reliable percentage of numbers throughout the country, thats why there is official figures for that which have been filtered to collate all the information.

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Same

 

Looking at various articles throughout the provinces is not exactly a reliable percentage of numbers throughout the country, thats why there is official figures for that which have been filtered to collate all the information.

Unfortunately, the official figures seem to mash in contact tracing tests, people self presenting at hospitals, coming into quarantine from abroad, plus Active Case Finding into one number.

 

There’s a line called “Active Case Finding”, but it hasn’t been updated in weeks. So, we don’t know the number of random samples nationwide, not from the MOPH. 
 

Since testing close contacts of known positives is going to have a lot of positive findings, those tests should not be included in the positivity rate. Ideally, only random samples should be used.

 

I am sure that the Powers That Be have random sampling data, or else they wouldn’t pay for it. And we do get some of it, in drips and drabs, in local reports.

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Unfortunately, the official figures seem to mash in contact tracing tests, people self presenting at hospitals, coming into quarantine from abroad, plus Active Case Finding into one number.

 

There’s a line called “Active Case Finding”, but it hasn’t been updated in weeks. So, we don’t know the number of random samples nationwide, not from the MOPH. 
 

Since testing close contacts of known positives is going to have a lot of positive findings, those tests should not be included in the positivity rate. Ideally, only random samples should be used.

 

I am sure that the Powers That Be have random sampling data, or else they wouldn’t pay for it. And we do get some of it, in drips and drabs, in local reports.

Are you looking in the right place all categories are updated daily?

 

Take a look at the Eng version. The direct download pdf link; https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no478-010564.pdf

 

The thai version https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

[Danderman123]

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Are you looking in the right place all categories are updated daily?

 

Take a look at the Eng version. The direct download pdf link; https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no478-010564.pdf

 

The thai version https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

Here’s a couple of reports a week apart. You can see the Line Item “Active Case Finding” isn’t updated. The only line that is updated is the Person of Interest number, ie close contacts of the infected.

[spidermike007]

8 hours ago, sirineou said:

Cases here in Thailand were very low, so the new situation is a bit of a shock to the system , but comparing to other countries , Thailand still does does very well .  For instance Greece , where I have friends and family , is only 11 million people, and they have close to thee thousand cases a day, and they are not panicking, instead they are opening up to vaccinated people soon. Thailand is 77 million people , they have one third the covid cases , and they are in a panic. Wife and me .We are seating here in our ASQ doing our seven day quarantine, we are both fully vaccinated, and we are treated like we are the plague.  After all the tests , and vaccinations we had, we are probaby the safest people in Thailand LOL  

 

No question, the panic and over reaction is completely out of proportion to the reported numbers. What are the real numbers? Will we ever know? 

 

To put it into perspective, Thailand's numbers are the kind most nations can only dream about. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by spidermike007

[Bkk Brian]

30 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Here’s a couple of reports a week apart. You can see the Line Item “Active Case Finding” isn’t updated. The only line that is updated is the Person of Interest number, ie close contacts of the infected. 

Take a look at the eng version it has far more details also where they will be doing target testing in bangkok, its 4 pages instead of 2 in the Thai version. 

 

For daily active case finding/pro active testing, its updated daily by CCSA in the daily briefings, look at todays graphic published earlier 231 case found by pro active case finding. You should have plenty to work on now. We're completely off topic.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[mrfill]

9 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

I remember every day Thailand news boasted they were 166 in the world for cases...sadly now #99 ????

And if you sort the list into new infections order (a more realistic way of assessing the current situation), they are #31

Sorting into total new deaths order, they are #37

Worldometers also has a Weekly trends list. Thailand #37

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

 

 

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Take a look at the eng version it has far more details also where they will be doing target testing in bangkok, its 4 pages instead of 2 in the Thai version. 

 

For daily active case finding/pro active testing, its updated daily by CCSA in the daily briefings, look at todays graphic published earlier 231 case found by pro active case finding. You should have plenty to work on now. We're completely off topic.

What this chart says is that of the 1763 new cases, only 231 came from active testing (random sampling), presumably on or about May 3. The latest English MOPH report says that the plan for May 3 was 1800 random sample tests in Phra Nakhon, Phra Khanong, Bang Khen, Khlong Sam Wa, and Bang Kho  Laem  districts   in Bangkok. BUT, the figure of 231 positives is for all of Thailand, so the number of national random tests is much higher than 1800, since we know there were at least 1,000 random tests in Chonburi, and presumably thousands more in other provinces. So, the national positivity rate from all of those random samples was probably 5% or so, consistent with the infection rate nationwide

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

What this chart says is that of the 1763 new cases, only 231 came from active testing (random sampling), presumably on or about May 3. The latest English MOPH report says that the plan for May 3 was 1800 random sample tests in Phra Nakhon, Phra Khanong, Bang Khen, Khlong Sam Wa, and Bang Kho  Laem  districts   in Bangkok. BUT, the figure of 231 positives is for all of Thailand, so the number of national random tests is much higher than 1800, since we know there were at least 1,000 random tests in Chonburi, and presumably thousands more in other provinces. So, the national positivity rate from all of those random samples was probably 5% or so, consistent with the infection rate nationwide

I think you'll find those tests from pro active would have been carried out at least 2 or 3 days before, take into account lab testing time and second confirmed test to prove positive. However maybe they are filtered in the database to correspond on a set day? Without knowing that then being specific about getting a separate positive rate on proactive testing is just speculation.

 

You seem to be missing the bigger picture, your focusing on pro active testing only, when a country is measured on how the spread is developing in all testing environments. The "community spread" which includes hospital walk ins and delivers a far higher percentage and far higher numbers has also got to be taken into account, these are people out in the community interacting with others, they are real, why are you discarding this in your quest for trying to get exact numbers of proactive testing, they also have to be included in the overall national positive percentage rate.

 

No other country in the world publishes daily separated out categories like this, even the UK. The only time we get to hear the occasional positive rate from this is in the odd article in the media where the Provencal governor has publicly stated it.

 

Focusing on a particular province that has done some active testing and that testing has been demonstrated to decrease the positive rate over a period of time is great but that is one province and does not take account of the national spread and total numbers.

 

Anyway thats enough for me on this, if you can't get it then carry on with the speculation but bare in mind it will be quite rightly open to challenge.

 

When Thailand gets to the point where pro active testing is finding more than hospital walk ins, then you know they are testing enough.

 

 

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

No question, the panic and over reaction is completely out of proportion to the reported numbers. What are the real numbers? Will we ever know? 

 

To put it into perspective, Thailand's numbers are the kind most nations can only dream about. 

People complain that Thailand might be underreporting the number of cases ,and they might be right, hens  their  covid standing in the world are not as good, but that fails to consider that many other countries are also either actively or inadvertently are under-reporting also.   

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I think you'll find those tests from pro active would have been carried out at least 2 or 3 days before, take into account lab testing time and second confirmed test to prove positive. However maybe they are filtered in the database to correspond on a set day? Without knowing that then being specific about getting a separate positive rate on proactive testing is just speculation.

 

You seem to be missing the bigger picture, your focusing on pro active testing only, when a country is measured on how the spread is developing in all testing environments. The "community spread" which includes hospital walk ins and delivers a far higher percentage and far higher numbers has also got to be taken into account, these are people out in the community interacting with others, they are real, why are you discarding this in your quest for trying to get exact numbers of proactive testing, they also have to be included in the overall national positive percentage rate.

 

No other country in the world publishes daily separated out categories like this, even the UK. The only time we get to hear the occasional positive rate from this is in the odd article in the media where the Provencal governor has publicly stated it.

 

Focusing on a particular province that has done some active testing and that testing has been demonstrated to decrease the positive rate over a period of time is great but that is one province and does not take account of the national spread and total numbers.

 

Anyway thats enough for me on this, if you can't get it then carry on with the speculation but bare in mind it will be quite rightly open to challenge.

 

When Thailand gets to the point where pro active testing is finding more than hospital walk ins, then you know they are testing enough.

 

 

The positivity rate is an accurate indicator of spread in a community only if tests are taken by a group of people that is representative of an entire community, experts say.

 

This goes on to say that counting walk-ins artificially raises the positivity rate. 

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The positivity rate is an accurate indicator of spread in a community only if tests are taken by a group of people that is representative of an entire community, experts say.

 

This goes on to say that counting walk-ins artificially raises the positivity rate. 

There you go, a very good example of just how complicated it is without know the exact numbers, dates of tests and instead relying on newspaper articles to get your stats from then going onto speculate what the countries positive rate is because of one small section in one Province.

 

"The number is deceptively basic. It’s the percentage of positive virus tests among all virus tests performed, both positives and negatives. It may reflect the level of disease transmission in a community, but a sudden rise in a particular location could mean an increase in infections coupled with a need for more testing of the general population, among whom the rate is probably lower."

 

The above from the article clearly says what I mentioned, when there are more positive tests through hospital walkins in a particular area then there is more need to do pro active testing within that area although that pro active testing will probably have a lower positive rate.

 

Unless you're working at the Dept of Disease Control or Ministry of Public Health with the actual numbers that are imputed into the raw data and how they then categorize those numbers into the daily official results then all we can do is rely on those. Just as any other public population does in the world and how its officially reported in stats, graphs and official country counts.

 

They are not going to be over reporting their numbers so we can assume they are either correct or under reported.

 

[Petey11]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

People complain that Thailand might be underreporting the number of cases ,and they might be right, hens  their  covid standing in the world are not as good, but that fails to consider that many other countries are also either actively or inadvertently are under-reporting also.   

Well said, I think all countries are under reporting due to the fact a certain percentage will not get tested regardless, unless they become sick enough to seek treatment, those who are asymptomatic and just don't know they are carrying the virus. Also those countries with low testing, due to financial constraints or purposeful low testing and then those few countries e.g. Tanzania which point blank denied it even existed in their country. Report on tv from epidemiologist today said in India the testing has been cut back in the past few days, in his opinion to make it look like the situation is improving.

[meltonpie]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

What this chart says is that of the 1763 new cases, only 231 came from active testing (random sampling), presumably on or about May 3. The latest English MOPH report says that the plan for May 3 was 1800 random sample tests in Phra Nakhon, Phra Khanong, Bang Khen, Khlong Sam Wa, and Bang Kho  Laem  districts   in Bangkok. BUT, the figure of 231 positives is for all of Thailand, so the number of national random tests is much higher than 1800, since we know there were at least 1,000 random tests in Chonburi, and presumably thousands more in other provinces. So, the national positivity rate from all of those random samples was probably 5% or so, consistent with the infection rate nationwide

If it makes you happy/feel better continue to stick to the 5% or less theme.

At the end of the day it will be what it will be.

[Pravda]

1.5 years of thermometers inside shopping malls, 7/11s and condos being adjusted 1 degree below normal temperature. 

 

No fever, no covid. 

[Susco]

10 minutes ago, Pravda said:

1.5 years of thermometers inside shopping malls, 7/11s and condos being adjusted 1 degree below normal temperature. 

 

No fever, no covid. 

 

The other day when i entered Big C Xtra in Pattaya, there was a family of 4 in front of me.

 

3 of them, and me, registered the same temperature of 36.2°C, and it was not a matter as if they didn't wait until the thermometer registered their temperature, because each time the green lights lit up.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Susco

[Danderman123]

6 hours ago, meltonpie said:

If it makes you happy/feel better continue to stick to the 5% or less theme.

At the end of the day it will be what it will be.

“What will be” will the actual new infections, published every day.

 

For the last week, the national  number of new infections has been consistent with a 5 percent positivity rate - except in some local pockets, where local positivity has been higher.

 

 

[hotchilli]

20 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand on Tuesday reported 1,763 new coronavirus cases and 27 deaths, as the country grapples with a third wave of infections.

Wait until Klong Toey kicks in, a few days from now it could be through the roof.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

“What will be” will the actual new infections, published every day.

 

For the last week, the national  number of new infections has been consistent with a 5 percent positivity rate - except in some local pockets, where local positivity has been higher.

 

 

Official data points for that? Then interpretation of that official data? Its always good to have evidence on your assertions. 

 

 

[Danderman123]

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Official data points for that? Then interpretation of that official data? Its always good to have evidence on your assertions. 

 

 

A 5% positivity rate implies a stable infection rate, neither spiking nor declining - much. I am simply working the positivity  rate back from the demonstrated infection numbers.

 

what it doesn’t say is the distribution of infections within the sampled population, so that some areas may be 0% infections, and others at 10%, it doesn’t mean that everywhere is 5%.

 

IF the national positivity rate were 10% or greater, Thailand’s case numbers would be spiking upwards. Some might even say exponentially. For reference, until recently Mumbai, India has had a 10% positivity rate. I doubt that Thailand has any areas with a 10% rate for more than a few day.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Danderman123

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

A 5% positivity rate implies a stable infection rate, neither spiking nor declining - much. I am simply working the positivity  rate back from the demonstrated infection numbers.

 

what it doesn’t say is the distribution of infections within the sampled population, so that some areas may be 0% infections, and others at 10%, it doesn’t mean that everywhere is 5%.

 

IF the national positivity rate were 10% or greater, Thailand’s case numbers would be spiking upwards. Some might even say exponentially.

So the actual data points you're using to prove what you're saying?

 

Rather than speculation as some days have officially up to 15% and higher positivity? 

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

So the actual data points you're using to prove what you're saying?

 

Rather than speculation as some days have officially up to 15% and higher positivity? 

Positivity rates express themselves via numbers of new infections. Thailand’s numbers have been stable for the last 10 days, indicating a moderate positivity rate, ie around 5%.

 

You cannot claim a national positivity rate of 15% if the rate of increase in new infections does not support that rate. 

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Positivity rates express themselves via numbers of new infections. Thailand’s numbers have been stable for the last 10 days, indicating a moderate positivity rate, ie around 5%.

 

You cannot claim a national positivity rate of 15% if the rate of increase in new infections does not support that rate. 

I'm not claiming it, I have no need to, I'm stating fact based on the official figures released daily of tests/versus positive cases, look at the chart posted previously, you are making wild assumptions that underplay the severity of this outbreak.

[Danderman123]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

I'm not claiming it, I have no need to, I'm stating fact based on the official figures released daily of tests/versus positive cases, look at the chart posted previously, you are making wild assumptions that underplay the severity of this outbreak.

Let’s recap the bidding:

 

the ideal way to obtain the positivity rate is to conduct random sampling, and divide the number of positive cases by the total tests. But, although the number of positive cases obtained via random sampling is published, we don’t see the figures of total random samples, it’s mixed in with the number of all tests.

 

But, we do see bits and pieces of the random sample numbers. We know that Bangkok is doing around 2,000 random sample tests a day. We know that Chonburi is doing 1,000+. We read reports of other provinces doing 200, 300, 500 tests, so it is not likely that total tests per day are only the Bangkok and Chonburi numbers. If positive cases from random sampling are, like yesterday, 231, then if we divide that by just the Bangkok and Chonburi test numbers, that is less than 10%. If we assume the entire rest of the country does 2,000 random tests per day, then the positivity rate would be 5% nationwide.

 

Your higher numbers come when you add in testing for sick people and close contacts of sick people, that increases the number of positive tests significantly, by over 1,000 per day.

 

The purpose of knowing the positivity rate is to be able to predict the future progress of the epidemic, and therefore the random sampling approach is useful IF not contaminated by adding in noise from high probability testing.

 

One more note: the national aggregate testing numbers include foreigners who get infected in other countries. Using those numbers to derive a Thai positivity rate misinformed us.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Let’s recap the bidding:

 

the ideal way to obtain the positivity rate is to conduct random sampling, and divide the number of positive cases by the total tests. But, although the number of positive cases obtained via random sampling is published, we don’t see the figures of total random samples, it’s mixed in with the number of all tests.

 

But, we do see bits and pieces of the random sample numbers. We know that Bangkok is doing around 2,000 random sample tests a day. We know that Chonburi is doing 1,000+. We read reports of other provinces doing 200, 300, 500 tests, so it is not likely that total tests per day are only the Bangkok and Chonburi numbers. If positive cases from random sampling are, like yesterday, 231, then if we divide that by just the Bangkok and Chonburi test numbers, that is less than 10%. If we assume the entire rest of the country does 2,000 random tests per day, then the positivity rate would be 5% nationwide.

 

Your higher numbers come when you add in testing for sick people and close contacts of sick people, that increases the number of positive tests significantly, by over 1,000 per day.

 

The purpose of knowing the positivity rate is to be able to predict the future progress of the epidemic, and therefore the random sampling approach is useful IF not contaminated by adding in noise from high probability testing.

 

One more note: the national aggregate testing numbers include foreigners who get infected in other countries. Using those numbers to derive a Thai positivity rate misinformed us.

Here's the recap for you,

 

you are not a data scientist with all the data to hand. You are making assumptions from media reports. Its not me adding numbers, its the official released numbers daily. You are attempting to separate them out into proactive tests and hospital walk ins. You cannot do that without the full official data. Instead you can speculate which is exactly what you are doing. 

 

This leads to a very inaccurate and unofficial count that is currently underplaying the severity of the outbreak which is dangerous

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here's the recap for you,

 

you are not a data scientist with all the data to hand. You are making assumptions from media reports. Its not me adding numbers, its the official released numbers daily. You are attempting to separate them out into proactive tests and hospital walk ins. You cannot do that without the full official data. Instead you can speculate which is exactly what you are doing. 

 

This leads to a very inaccurate and unofficial count that is currently underplaying the severity of the outbreak which is dangerous

Let me ask 2 questions:

 

Do you agree that a reported positivity rate above 5% indicates future spiking of infection numbers?

 

and

 

We have official random sampling numbers from Bangkok (MOPH)  and Chonburi (provincial government), giving us a baseline of some 3,000 to 4,000 random samples per day (the specific number is in that range but varies from day to day).  Do you disagree?

 

[anchadian]

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1389741449382486018

 

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

·

3m

 

 

Chonburi Public Health Office has just just announced that they have 110
new cases today. The total so far is now 2,965. Most new cases in Bang Lamung/Pattaya (59), Chonburi City (21), and Sriracha (9) #COVID19 #โควิด19 #Thailand

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by anchadian