From winner to loser: Thailand’s downhill battle with COVID

[shady86]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You are not explaining why we are not seeing 50,000+ infections in the provinces after Songkran. 

 

You are not doing analysis, you seem to be in denial, but unable to explain why I am wrong. Try working the numbers. Maybe less than a million people left Bangkok, maybe the positivity rate was less than 5%, there are reasons why my analysis could be wrong, but the Doomsayers can't be bothered with numbers

 

How do you expect 50k infections when they are only testing 3,000 daily at BKK hotspots. That is the "mass testing" in Thailand, increased from 1,000 just few days ago.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, shady86 said:

 

How do you expect 50k infections when they are only testing 3,000 daily at BKK hotspots. That is the "mass testing" in Thailand, increased from 1,000 just few days ago.

I don’t expect 50,000 infections in the provinces, stemming from visitors from Bangkok over Songkran. 
 

But, IF there were large numbers of infections in the province due to Songkran, it would be obvious now. Hospitals would be jammed, there would be news stories about it.

 

But all these assertions about the impact on Covid from Songkran travel were wrong.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, shady86 said:

 

How do you expect 50k infections when they are only testing 3,000 daily at BKK hotspots. That is the "mass testing" in Thailand, increased from 1,000 just few days ago.

There is testing all over Thailand, you just don’t know about it, and therefore assume it isn’t happening.

[Fromas]

What do you know (not believe) about it?

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I don’t expect 50,000 infections in the provinces, stemming from visitors from Bangkok over Songkran. 
 

But, IF there were large numbers of infections in the province due to Songkran, it would be obvious now. Hospitals would be jammed, there would be news stories about it.

 

But all these assertions about the impact on Covid from Songkran travel were wrong.

So in your personal view of the world according to the D'man Songkran played no part in the infections found in the 77 provinces since Songkran travel started.  You still have no clue as to the true amount  of testing they have been doing in the outer provinces, and you have no idea how many of those folks may be asymptomatic, or exhibiting symptoms.  No everyone will go get tested or go to a Government hospital.  Just like in Myanmar, many are at home sick and self medicating.  We may never know of the number  or how many deaths occur.  Unless every little tine place is being checked by the Government health officials many still slip through the net and keep the spread going.

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

There is testing all over Thailand, you just don’t know about it, and therefore assume it isn’t happening.

So then if you minus the testing in Bangkok, Chonburi, Chiang Mai, and Phuket, please tell us of the 10k to 20k tests being done, how many are outside of those Areas and in the outer provinces including the south.  Of course minus the Jails and prisons as well..  Show me the stats......

Edited May 7, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Danderman123]

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So in your personal view of the world according to the D'man Songkran played no part in the infections found in the 77 provinces since Songkran travel started.  You still have no clue as to the true amount  of testing they have been doing in the outer provinces, and you have no idea how many of those folks may be asymptomatic, or exhibiting symptoms.  No everyone will go get tested or go to a Government hospital.  Just like in Myanmar, many are at home sick and self medicating.  We may never know of the number  or how many deaths occur.  Unless every little tine place is being checked by the Government health officials many still slip through the net and keep the spread going.

Songkran had a small role in spreading the virus.

 

There were about 70 new infections in Isaan today.

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So then if you minus the testing in Bangkok, Chonburi, Chiang Mai, and Phuket, please tell us of the 10k to 20k tests being done, how many are outside of those Areas and in the outer provinces including the south.  Of course minus the Jails and prisons as well..  Show me the stats......

You have moved the goalposts from there only being 3000 tests per day in Bangkok. 
 

There are a small number of tests outside of  Bangkok. The authorities will test more if Covid victims start presenting themselves at a hospital in large numbers.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Songkran had a small role in spreading the virus.

 

 

You better check the total number of infections found in the provinces since Songkran before making that assumption

[ThailandRyan]

18 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You have moved the goalposts from there only being 3000 tests per day in Bangkok. 
 

There are a small number of tests outside of  Bangkok. The authorities will test more if Covid victims start presenting themselves at a hospital in large numbers.

Your the one who moved the Goal posts when you started in about the outer provinces not having been affected by Songkran, I just kicked the ball through the goal posts from 50 yards.

[shady86]

 

38 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

There is testing all over Thailand, you just don’t know about it, and therefore assume it isn’t happening.

 

With the current positive rate of 4%, the estimate num of tests done daily here is around 50k of tests. They would need to test more than 1 million daily if they are aiming for 50k. 

[Danderman123]

23 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Your the one who moved the Goal posts when you started in about the outer provinces not having been affected by Songkran, I just kicked the ball through the goal posts from 50 yards.

To be clear, my point was that the mass numbers of infections predicted by the Doomsayers here about Songkran travel never happened. You have implied that lack of testing in the provinces is obscuring those purported mass numbers of infections.

 

My response is that there is some testing in the provinces, and  there are no signs of a widespread epidemic in the provinces. 
 

70 new infections in Isaan today.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

To be clear, my point was that the mass numbers of infections predicted by the Doomsayers here about Songkran travel never happened. You have implied that lack of testing in the provinces is obscuring those purported mass numbers of infections.

 

My response is that there is some testing in the provinces, and  there are no signs of a widespread epidemic in the provinces. 
 

70 new infections in Isaan today.

Is that all, wow and whats the total in all the provinces since Songkran seeing as you claimed the travel didn't affect it much?

[Blumpie]

I think Thailand should accept it's bubble change into a filth bubble.  Maybe mass tourism with India right now is the way to go.

Let's rip this band-aid off.  The temples will be busy with cremations.  It creates employment!

[connda]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

The ongoing third wave of COVID-19 underlines one thing

There was a second wave? I missed it.

[Fromas]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

To be clear, my point was that the mass numbers of infections predicted by the Doomsayers here about Songkran travel never happened.

 

I was one of those doomsayers. I said it was unsound to allow mass inter-provincial travel.

Thailand now has to work overtime to contain the wave. The new infections, clusters, lost jobs, physical restrictions arose directly from the mass travel. The data does not yet show that Thailand has climbed out of this mess.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Fromas

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Is that all, wow and whats the total in all the provinces since Songkran seeing as you claimed the travel didn't affect it much?

The number of infections spread by Songkran travel has been a tiny fraction of the numbers predicted by the Doomsayers.

[Danderman123]

28 minutes ago, Fromas said:

 

I was one of those doomsayers. I said it was unsound to allow mass inter-provincial travel.

Thailand now has to work overtime to contain the wave. The new infections, clusters, lost jobs, physical restrictions arose directly from the mass travel. The data does not yet show that Thailand has climbed out of this mess.

 

For every infected person that traveled out of Bangkok for Songkran, they effectively isolated themselves from Bangkok for that time period. In retrospect, that might have been an overall plus.

 

Possibly.

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The number of infections spread by Songkran travel has been a tiny fraction of the numbers predicted by the Doomsayers.

Seems those of a different opinion (doomsayers)were right.  Facts and data behind them.

 

National totals of new daily COVID cases represented by the blue line columns, with the daily new cases in Bangkok, represented by the red line. 

 

 

[Stargeezr]

My Thai relatives say that they is a small English word that they all use.  The word is called.   Yet...

  Thailand has not had huge spikes of COVID.... Yet.  Thailand hospitals have not been over run with

virus cases...  yet..  Thailand has not became like India... Yet.   Plus they have all told me not to come

visit Thailand    yet.  yup I have been told to get my shots, and wait until they have also gotten their shots.

  And I  agree.

Geezer

[Surelynot]

Why relatively few deaths in Thailand?

 

Older Thais grew up on meagre diets, not so much sugar and were rarely obese.

 

Also, Thais that faced certain health problems earlier in life had less chance of surviving.........the up-shot being that the Thais that make to old age have had the 'weak' ones filtered out and we are left with fewer, fitter older people compared to the west.

 

In the west we are very adept at keeping unhealthy people alive with statins, heart by passes, insulin, exotic drugs and cancer treatments........and obesity is endemic in many Western countries. So the aged in the west are more numerous and much less healthy than old age Thais........ hence the high death rates in say the UK compared to Thailand.

 

Does that make sense?

[Neeranam]

What an awful news report. Thailand is still way above other countries. 

[Lacessit]

18 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There is testing all over Thailand, you just don’t know about it, and therefore assume it isn’t happening.

The only testing I am seeing is temperature testing, which has its limits. When the gate guard at a golf club faithfully records my forehead temperature as 32.1 degrees C, she should be calling an ambulance to rush me to hospital, where I can be treated for hypothermia.

My GF's village south of Chiang Rai is in lockdown, along with a dozen others on the route to Phan. I get the same temperature check, I don't see any PCR or COVID antibody testing kits there. The guards at the checkpoint are just villagers, no training in how to use them anyway.

It depends on who you listen to, a few days ago the Thai government was posting 53 COVID patients at the government hospital in Chiang Rai. An elderly local Thai guy told me there were over 200, who do I believe?

Unless you have creditable links to the number of PCR/antibody tests being made, you are assuming too.

[indeedy]

On 5/7/2021 at 4:58 AM, sapson said:

 

Utter boll@cks !!

 

How does testing less than 1% of the 69 million population over the course of a year make you a champion of anything other than total negligence and irresponsibility!

rest of the world delt with big blow covid numbers .thailand hid behind a cupboard saying " we dont have it" but if you charge people equiv 1 weeks wage your never going to get any numbers.. now truth is out .its all over thailand and always was.

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, indeedy said:

rest of the world delt with big blow covid numbers .thailand hid behind a cupboard saying " we dont have it" but if you charge people equiv 1 weeks wage your never going to get any numbers.. now truth is out .its all over thailand and always was.

If covid was as rampant in Thailand as you allege, then the hospitals would long since have been paralyzed with overloaded ICU's. That has not been the case.

Edited May 12, 2021 by placeholder

[trainman34014]

On 5/7/2021 at 11:27 AM, Danderman123 said:

Songkran was a long time ago.

 

 

We are not seeing any big wave of infections in the villages.

Truth is though that we don't really know yet exactly how bad the spread in Villages is.     I live in the North and there are cases in many Villages around us that do not appear on any Government lists that i've seen so far.  Testing is being carried out on a limited scale around us but according to my Wife (retired Nurse); her friends, who number many still in that occupation, say that many local Hospitals are full of Covid sufferers and they cannot take any more.   I suspect that the National numbers being spouted daily are in the main numbers drawn from Bangkok and surrounding area and Chiang Mai with a few odd ones tagged on but do not give an accurate picture of the true situation out in the sticks.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, trainman34014 said:

Truth is though that we don't really know yet exactly how bad the spread in Villages is.     I live in the North and there are cases in many Villages around us that do not appear on any Government lists that i've seen so far.  Testing is being carried out on a limited scale around us but according to my Wife (retired Nurse); her friends, who number many still in that occupation, say that many local Hospitals are full of Covid sufferers and they cannot take any more.   I suspect that the National numbers being spouted daily are in the main numbers drawn from Bangkok and surrounding area and Chiang Mai with a few odd ones tagged on but do not give an accurate picture of the true situation out in the sticks.

Because there is no one in your province who can count.

[Danderman123]

On 5/8/2021 at 12:52 PM, Lacessit said:

The only testing I am seeing is temperature testing, which has its limits. When the gate guard at a golf club faithfully records my forehead temperature as 32.1 degrees C, she should be calling an ambulance to rush me to hospital, where I can be treated for hypothermia.

My GF's village south of Chiang Rai is in lockdown, along with a dozen others on the route to Phan. I get the same temperature check, I don't see any PCR or COVID antibody testing kits there. The guards at the checkpoint are just villagers, no training in how to use them anyway.

It depends on who you listen to, a few days ago the Thai government was posting 53 COVID patients at the government hospital in Chiang Rai. An elderly local Thai guy told me there were over 200, who do I believe?

Unless you have creditable links to the number of PCR/antibody tests being made, you are assuming too.

8 new infections in Chiang Rai today.

[spidermike007]

It sure appears to have been "dumb luck", during the first wave. 

 

There is a high price to be paid when you let an army run the nation. One of the few things they are really good at, is picking cronies from the bottom of the barrel. Not good for anyone except the cronies. 

[sapson]

Who in their right mind would give any credence to the the daily spouting of this bunch of military muppets? who have shown by the lack of testing over the last year and the subsequent failure to rapidly procure enough vaccines for the whole population.......that they have gambled with the health of the people and lost !! in favour of keeping their snouts in full rather than depleted money troughs!!

 

What can we expect? how did they come to power and how have they remained! by all the normal means of third world countries.

Edited May 12, 2021 by sapson