Thailand Says Its Tourism Sector May Not Recover Until 2026

[Pilotman]

The Thai tourist  future lies in the hands of the airlines and with no one else.  TAT and the government can't wish it to come back, people need to be able and willing to fly here.   Tourists need airline seats and if the seats are not available due to airline cut backs, both in aircraft, crews and routes,  or the seats are prohibitively expensive, then tourism here cannot possibly return to pre covid levels and grow.   That is an inescapable fact.  I can only speak of ( not for) the airline that I used to work for, who have no plans to resume their pervious routes through and out of BKK in their present 3 year plan. Okay, all that can and may change if the demand returns, but aircraft can't just be wished out of the Boeing and Airbus factories to replace the 100s of those scrapped (A380s, B777/200 and 300, B744) or mothballed, to be quickly overtaken by new technology (B777X, A350). Best for TAT to keep quiet until the smoke clears and the future becomes clearer.  We are a long way from that yet. 

[KhunMorris]

All depends on the 'type' of tourists as to whether they'll come back.

 

Western Families with kids - No chance 

Asian flag tour groups - No idea

Backpackers - Definitely 

Sex Tourists - Definitely

Honeymooners - No chance

 

I'm guessing for the next 2 or 3 years at least you'll get the lowest rung of the ladder in terms of spending. Either backpacking types or the usual Pattaya pond life. 

 

Just my opinion...

 

Sincerely 

 

MORRIS

Ex Bar Owner, Ex Special Forces.

[rct99q]

22 minutes ago, BusyB said:

 

Agree, saw its earlier posts ... and what the hell is an 'emergency department'? 555

Back during Barnaby Jones time this is what was referred to as the ER. 

Me thinks the poster has been watching too many Chicago Hope episodes. 

Come In Adam-12....ha!

[allyoops]

Tourism worldwide will take a long time to recover, not just in Thailand. How long depends on when this virus is finally controlled. If with the vaccines the virus faded away over the next year or so I think things would recover quite quickly. But will the airlines have the planes and staff available.

As far as Thailand is concerned it will probably shoot itself in the foot. Another poster has commented about rising prices and I think that's what will happen, it's the Thai way. Thailand is still reasonably cheap but not compared to a decade or two ago. Rising prices for hotels, food, drink etc will only slow down any recovery. Others will try and keep prices down to get their market share, that's not the Thai way.

[kwilco]

51 minutes ago, Poet said:

The vaccines were always going to be presented as "the solution", regardless of whether they worked or not. Luckily, it turns out they do work.

"The vaccines were alwaysgoing to be presented as "the solution", regardless of whether they worked or not. Luckily, it turns out they do work."

 

sadly this is a misunderstanding. Vaccines only work if herd immunity is achieved - worldwide...... otherwise travel will result in hotspots exploding around the world, and the resulting trace restrictions both by host countries and countries of visitor origin.

The next problem is variants - the more the virus spreads, the more variants will emerge and even now there are concerns about how effective some vaccines are against the "Indian" variant. We know that 2 vaccines work but not quite as effectively as against the other variants.

This means like the flu vaccines there will have to be monitoring in  perpetuity of the virus and constant changes in how it is handled.

Edited May 25, 2021 by kwilco

[Lacessit]

44 minutes ago, starky said:

 Good on Australia for their success but as an island with a relatively small population that has refused to allow thier citizens to leave and in some instances return home with some of the strictest lockdowns in the world you really wouldn't expect any other result. But for how many years is that sustainable? And who wants to live like that?

I probably should be at the nearest wat making offerings, two weeks after I flew from Melbourne to Bangkok in February 2020, all the borders shut down.

No way would I want to go back and stagnate there.

Success? I think the appropriate term is "Pyrrhic victory".

[steevjee]

8 hours ago, starky said:

Hope I'm wrong but Australia is likely to come out of this year's behind the rest of the world. Haven't even experienced a first wave yet. Now we are fairly certain that vaccines aren't the be all and end all, the zero covid strategy and perpetual rolling lockdowns for a handful of cases is more detrimental than anything.

Yep!! You're wrong on all points

[steevjee]

16 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I probably should be at the nearest wat making offerings, two weeks after I flew from Melbourne to Bangkok in February 2020, all the borders shut down.

No way would I want to go back and stagnate there.

Success? I think the appropriate term is "Pyrrhic victory".

Why would you stagnate? freedom to travel anywhere in Australia and NZ and if you have good reason you can get permission to return to Thailand, so old mate I seriously dont get why you choose to put down Australia ????

[VBF]

7 hours ago, GeorgeEboy said:

They are talking about the regular tourist who may pick or choose Thailand on a whim or part of a SEAn tour. Experienced male travelers know where they’re going and why? It’s not really a tourist vacation for them but a scheduled visit. So these venues will probably be back in action a lot faster.

Talking about me??? ????

2 shots, ready to go.....whenever the UK and Thai Govts relax their rules......... not holding my breath ????

[Poet]

35 minutes ago, kwilco said:

sadly this is a misunderstanding.

Okay. Perhaps you should be the one to break this terrible news to the Israelis.
 

35 minutes ago, kwilco said:

This means like the flu vaccines there will have to be monitoring in  perpetuity of the virus and constant changes in how it is handled.

Yes, viruses mutate. Vaccines are adapted accordingly. That is how vaccinology operates. Not sure how you think this adds to your argument.

 

35 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Vaccines only work if herd immunity is achieved - worldwide...... otherwise travel will result in hotspots around the world.

Verifiably vaccinated visitors from countries with extremely low levels of active cases, thanks to mass vaccination, arriving on planes containing only vaccinated passengers and crew, pose zero biological risk to Thailand. In fact, infinitely less risk than the current testing and quarantine system.

I honestly am amazed that so few people on this forum, supposedly familiar with Thailand, understand what is happening here. Thailand has almost 5,000 KM of land borders with some extremely poor and undeveloped countries with barely any medical care. It has as a massive reliance on migrant labor and an uncontrollable flow of people over those land borders. None of the outbreaks were due to tourists flying in.

Anyone who has completed a course of one of the Western vaccines, and who is not in one of the high risk categories, has nothing to worry about. His chances of getting infected by any variant is far lower. His chance of getting sick if infected is far lower. His chance of needing to be hospitilized is essentially zero. His chance of passing it on, if he does get infected, are about a third what they would have been. When he returns to his home country, most of the people he is in prolonged contact with will probably be just as resistant.

Israel's experience suggests that the "zero covid" level of active cases (100 per million population) kicks in when about 60% of the population are fully-vaccinated. This means that the spread is significantly retarded even at a level that every country will be able to achieve.

The virus may sweep through the remaining blocks of the population who do not wish to get vaccinated, but, individual-by-individual, they gain natural immunity, which further retards the spread.

I do not understand why people are focusing on the scare stories being used to prevent people from getting too relaxed as we head into summer, rather than watching the actual figures in the countries that have vaccinated the majority of their populations with good vaccines.

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Poet

[jacob29]

49 minutes ago, allyoops said:

Others will try and keep prices down to get their market share, that's not the Thai way.

Prices are down across the board, can we please stop perpetuating this myth? Alternatively, can you provide me examples of this during the past 12 months?

[Bkktodd]

10 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Domestic tourism in the US is red hot.  Hotels selling out, can't get rental cars, etc.  Vaccines are the way to go.  Sad Thailand put all it's eggs in one basket.  They're going to pay the price for this....

 

Hopefully, but I doubt it, they'll back away from mass tourism. 

Yup, “covid free” thailand bit them in their aR$e and now way behind in vaccines.  Military minded government Worried about those pesky farangs trying to get back and ignored the infected migrant (illegally) already here.  Youre right about US domestic travel. Flights are oversold.  EU/Uk set to reopen for vaccinated this summer. ????

[kwilco]

1 hour ago, Poet said:

Okay. Perhaps you should be the one to break this terrible news to the Israelis.
 

Yes, viruses mutate. Vaccines are adapted accordingly. That is how vaccinology operates. Not sure how you think this adds to your argument.

 

Verifiably vaccinated visitors from countries with extremely low levels of active cases, thanks to mass vaccination, arriving on planes containing only vaccinated passengers and crew, pose zero biological risk to Thailand. In fact, infinitely less risk than the current testing and quarantine system.

I honestly am amazed that so few people on this forum, supposedly familiar with Thailand, understand what is happening here. Thailand has almost 5,000 KM of land borders with some extremely poor and undeveloped countries with barely any medical care. It has as a massive reliance on migrant labor and an uncontrollable flow of people over those land borders. None of the outbreaks were due to tourists flying in.

Anyone who has completed a course of one of the Western vaccines, and who is not in one of the high risk categories, has nothing to worry about. His chances of getting infected by any variant is far lower. His chance of getting sick if infected is far lower. His chance of needing to be hospitilized is essentially zero. His chance of passing it on, if he does get infected, are about a third what they would have been. When he returns to his home country, most of the people he is in prolonged contact with will probably be just as resistant.

Israel's experience suggests that the "zero covid" level of active cases (100 per million population) kicks in when about 60% of the population are fully-vaccinated. This means that the spread is significantly retarded even at a level that every country will be able to achieve.

The virus may sweep through the remaining blocks of the population who do not wish to get vaccinated, but, individual-by-individual, they gain natural immunity, which further retards the spread.

I do not understand why people are focusing on the scare stories being used to prevent people from getting too relaxed as we head into summer, rather than watching the actual figures in the countries that have vaccinated the majority of their populations with good vaccines.

 

Except that's not how it works..... and Thailand had 40 million visitors before Covid.

Vaccinated peopkecan still transmit and in Thailand we've already seen what a new strain can potentially do to a healthcare system that simply cant take overload 

[Blumpie]

2 hours ago, Poet said:

Okay. Perhaps you should be the one to break this terrible news to the Israelis.
 

Yes, viruses mutate. Vaccines are adapted accordingly. That is how vaccinology operates. Not sure how you think this adds to your argument.

 

Verifiably vaccinated visitors from countries with extremely low levels of active cases, thanks to mass vaccination, arriving on planes containing only vaccinated passengers and crew, pose zero biological risk to Thailand. In fact, infinitely less risk than the current testing and quarantine system.

I honestly am amazed that so few people on this forum, supposedly familiar with Thailand, understand what is happening here. Thailand has almost 5,000 KM of land borders with some extremely poor and undeveloped countries with barely any medical care. It has as a massive reliance on migrant labor and an uncontrollable flow of people over those land borders. None of the outbreaks were due to tourists flying in.

Anyone who has completed a course of one of the Western vaccines, and who is not in one of the high risk categories, has nothing to worry about. His chances of getting infected by any variant is far lower. His chance of getting sick if infected is far lower. His chance of needing to be hospitilized is essentially zero. His chance of passing it on, if he does get infected, are about a third what they would have been. When he returns to his home country, most of the people he is in prolonged contact with will probably be just as resistant.

Israel's experience suggests that the "zero covid" level of active cases (100 per million population) kicks in when about 60% of the population are fully-vaccinated. This means that the spread is significantly retarded even at a level that every country will be able to achieve.

The virus may sweep through the remaining blocks of the population who do not wish to get vaccinated, but, individual-by-individual, they gain natural immunity, which further retards the spread.

I do not understand why people are focusing on the scare stories being used to prevent people from getting too relaxed as we head into summer, rather than watching the actual figures in the countries that have vaccinated the majority of their populations with good vaccines.

 

Why are you focusing in on people who are scared?  I'm not scared.  I'm merely stating the facts.

And please do keep in mind, you are not tourism.  Tourism is what it is - families, individuals coming for a care free holiday.  39 million people.

Until Thailand can get this under control there will be next to no tourism, as I, experts, and everyone has already stated.  You cannot have people coming to a country with health care stretched to the limit.  COVID is simply incidental, and that is not the fear of what the pandemic has brought.  It's brought the possibility of a systematic collapse of the health care system.  

You cannot under any single circumstance get health care if the hospitals close or if they are full and all doctors and nurses are working.  

It is also much more expensive if you travel against your home country's advice and get health care insurance.  In some cases its a tremendous expense.  What is it now, 100k USD for COVID insurance that doesn't apply if you need to quarantine because you are a-symptomatic?

Nobody is going to travel to Thailand under these circumstances, full stop.  I am sorry if some people take their personal situation and feel the rest of the world is like them.  It is not that way.

Look at China - they aren't even interested in travel right now.  The government doesn't care either!

For those that travel to Thailand under these circumstances, it's risky.  That is why, if you look at the travel section of your home country, it will say "avoid all unnecessary travel".  Or "avoid all travel". 

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

Except that's not how it works..... and Thailand had 40 million visitors before Covid.

Vaccinated peopkecan still transmit and in Thailand we've already seen what a new strain can potentially do to a healthcare system that simply cant take overload 

They probably can, maybe they can't.

In the end, these arguments are completely irrelevant.  

Thailand needs to get this under control.  Either lockdowns or vaccine.  What will it be? 

[Blumpie]

3 hours ago, Led Lolly Yellow Lolly said:

 

A couple of weeks ago we decided to pull the pin on our hotel business. It's a large property covering a large swathe of land with around 200 rooms. The baseline costs are eye watering. We are getting offers for the land, people want it for warehousing and distribution. The decision was easy. We also have other time consuming projects, so we're out. . .

 

Regarding your comment, as I said to my last remaining receptionist as she departed, there are no longer enough pilots to fly the planes, the mothballed airlines fleets will take years to bring back into service, the airlines will need to borrow vast amounts of money just to fuel them, and even if they could achieve all of this tomorrow, no one has the money to travel.

 

Dream on TAT. Morons.

I completely get it and I am sorry that you had to close your resort.

This is not a light switch that gets turned on.  Remember how pilots were in high demand before this?  How many have retired now?  How many are packing boxes at Amazon?  

How long does it take to get a plane going again?

REstart a hotel?

Start a restaurant?

This isn't a light switch that gets turned on again.  It takes time, money, and above all personnel.  

[Janner1]

13 hours ago, welshguy said:

At last...some realism is hitting them.

Yes but they still will not understand that if they had got on with quality vaccinations of the population they would currently not be in the amber no travel bracket enforced by countries who have inoculated a large part of their people.

I can’t wait to come back but I have to obtain consent to travel from my Government because the Thai Government adopted a wait and see policy, Well they waited and now they and the world can see it was a stupid move.

[Freigeist365]

That must be the first time in history that someone within Thailand openly posted a realistic prediction on tourism in this country. Thank you!!!! 

[kwilco]

27 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

They probably can, maybe they can't.

In the end, these arguments are completely irrelevant.  

Thailand needs to get this under control.  Either lockdowns or vaccine.  What will it be? 

It is crucial to managing Covid

[rumak]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

13 hours ago, webfact said:

will impact more than seven million workers, some of whom may need to find jobs in other fields, the council said.

Fields , literally

 

hahaha     those days are long gone.    if they can't get foreign workers to do the labor,  it's only a few 50 or 60 year olds still working an hour or two in their field.

the only manual labor their kids can do is scrolling and typing on Line

 

[GeorgeEboy]

9 hours ago, Lacessit said:

American exceptionalism at its best, let's just tuck away the half million dead under the carpet and forget about them. The reason the pandemic has diminished in the USA is related to the number of COVID vaccinations achieved. Interesting that Republican states are the ones shying away.

 India or Brazil ring any bells with you?

Pandemic is derived from the Greek " All people". Perhaps you think only Americans count.

 

40 years of conservative indoctrination has bent the thinking of the people here. It was how do you get people to vote and think against their own self interests. It shows they have done a good job just look at how the pandemic is viewed. It is viewed "as a freedom" issue not a public or world health issue. I have right to die any way I want here in the USA. Yes 600 thousand dead, but they died free. 

[billd766]

13 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Best to make a few hundred of those TAT staff redundant then, or are they going to carry on working from home doing next to zero

Starting at the very top management levels, sack about 75% and do NOT re-employ in any other government agencies. Send them to the fields for some honest labour toils. (assuming the farmers will take them on). Let them live on 300 thb a day and see how easy it is.

[Blumpie]

15 minutes ago, kwilco said:

It is crucial to managing Covid

Well sure.  But that's much much later on.

Today, how are you going to manage it?  Lockdowns or vaccines?  I don't see vaccines.  I don't see this ending anytime soon.

Lockdowns it is and that means travel bans.  

[gaynorch1]

13 hours ago, Poet said:

Every survey in the West shows that there is massive pent up demand for exotic foreign travel, and the savings to pay for it.

Thailand could starting ramping up back to mass tourism this summer if they simply announce that they will accept verifiably fully-innoculated visitors on the pre-pandemic visa terms (i.e. no tests, no quarantine, no paperwork, no special insurance etc). Each visitor would need to have credible verification that they received their final jab at least two weeks prior.

400 million people are fully-vaccinated, while another 400m have received a first jab and are waiting for their second. The supply is growing and we expect to have a billion fully-vaccinated humans by the end of June.

The current hold up is the official verification schemes. Israel launched theirs in February, the UK launched theirs earlier this month, and the EU are beta-testing theirs, individual governments will probably roll it out during July. All national schemes will provide the basic info that Thailand needs to know that the holder is not a biological threat to Thailand: date of shot(s) and type of vaccine(s).

To have any sort of high season this year, Thailand should announce during June that, from the second half of the year (July 1st), the doors are wide open to fully-vaccinated tourists who arrive on planes carrying only fully-vaccinated passengers and crew. They won't get anywhere near 2019 levels this year but it will be a start, will give them some sort of high season, will kickstart a complicated industry that has stalled badly, and will pre-empt regional competitors eager to leapfrog them.

 

Yes great ideas! And kids? They don’t get vaccines (yet). That means only singles and couples then. 

[VBF]

13 minutes ago, gaynorch1 said:

Yes great ideas! And kids? They don’t get vaccines (yet). That means only singles and couples then. 

Even better!!!  A kid-free zone - perfect!!! ????

[Ty Hareways]

15 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Tourism is tourism.  Tourism is having a safe country to go to for a care free holiday.

It's pretty hard to market a tourist area when the health care system is in tremendous stress and fear from collapsing because of a pandemic.  

People will not travel anywhere like this, full stop.

When bars reopen and quarantine is not required, tourists will travel to hotspots like Phuket,Samui,Pattaya,etc in their droves believe me.

People are itching to get back to thai, fact is very few locals want them as they're scared to death of catching covid.

[VBF]

46 minutes ago, Ty Hareways said:

When bars reopen and quarantine is not required, tourists will travel to hotspots like Phuket,Samui,Pattaya,etc in their droves believe me.

People are itching to get back to thai, fact is very few locals want them as they're scared to death of catching covid.

And if that's true, it's mainly because of the misinformation that they get from their "government" and social media, the latter of which seems to be an addiction!

[Blumpie]

2 hours ago, Ty Hareways said:

When bars reopen and quarantine is not required, tourists will travel to hotspots like Phuket,Samui,Pattaya,etc in their droves believe me.

People are itching to get back to thai, fact is very few locals want them as they're scared to death of catching covid.

Well of course.

The key is vaccines and making it safe to travel to Thailand.

When we talk about tourism we're not talking about your beer buddies showing up for weeks of drinking.  We're talking about opening up for tourism in a meaningful way that the numbers go back up dramatically.

When a health care system is stressed like this it just isn't going to happen.

So again, you are controlling it in two ways to get back to normal.  What is it?  Until it happens tourism is dead.  

[jerolamo]

2026 if some lobbyists doesn't realize that there is other virus than covid that can be used to build a world scary story again. It is so easy to spread fear and simple stupid ideas around the world now...

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

And if that's true, it's mainly because of the misinformation that they get from their "government" and social media, the latter of which seems to be an addiction!

There is no disinformation.  I've found the travel advice for Thailand spot on from my country.  Entry is extremely difficult and changes on a moments notice.  It is extremely time consuming to get the proper paperwork, and even when you pay all this money and get your paperwork in order entry into Thailand is far from certain given that it all comes to a complete halt with an a-symptomatic case of COVID, or an incorrect test result.  And that's just the start of it all.  Imagine testing positive and ending up in those horrific cardboard bed warehouses for 2 weeks?  

How about health care which, if this continues, will crash?  No disinformation here.  It has to do with being responsible enough to understand the risk and what could happen to you if you decide to travel and there is no health care to speak of in 2 weeks.