Thailand’s vaccination program is about to run into another roadblock

[kynikoi]

I stated exactly this on TV about a week ago. Putting aside innoculation centers, geography and logistics.

 

It all boils down to how many trained nurses Thailand has that can be spared for a vaccine drive. That simple really.

 

Thank God sticking a needle into someone and pushing the plunger is far easier than the opposite and drawing blood. Thai nurses are absolutely atrocious at that. My arm is blue for days.

 

Hopeless!

[4MyEgo]

6 minutes ago, AndyFoxy said:

Or even use Yakult as the vaccine, but put in a vile vial with AZ handwritten on the outside.  The placebo effect 

Using the straw as the needle/syringe while slightly tipping the bottle upwards as it empties via the straw.....brilliant !

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Using the straw as the needle/syringe while slightly tipping the bottle upwards as it empties via the straw.....brilliant !

Then refill it with Lao Kow and reseal it and sell it as a booster.

[wasabi]

Thailand is so far behind with taming Covid and the economic devastation is already so widespread it may not reach the point it was at Pre-Covid in our lifetimes though I am sure they will do a Thai-riffic job of masking this with bizarre stats about their tourist numbers. They will eventually get through Covid but all the closed shops and lockdowns... Already meager generational wealth has been lost. The rich will be fine of course but a permanent poverty class will not.

[SantiSuk]

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

Very true. Talking a first world game and providing a 3rd world experience is par for the course.

 

Udon Thani got approx 1.5% of the vaccine supply it needed. Dismal indeed.

It was obvious 2-3 weeks ago when Prayut summarily announced via Twitter, that priority would now be given to high risk areas and to those at work, that low risk regions and provinces such as Isaan and the North would kiss goodby to the state-operated programme for a large chunk of this year.

 

Isaan with nigh on 30% of the Thai population has 2% of the nation's infections. The North has similar relativities. Time to release the restrictions on low risk areas and man the borders between these low risk regions and the higher risk central provinces to prevent imported infections. We can then tolerate a slower vaccination rollout.

[JWRC]

Prior to certain activities including flying I am required to have injections of Heparin, usually into my stomach. I used to go to the hospital or a clinic to get these done, I keep the medicine at home so it just needs someone to actually do the injecting. I stopped the hospital and clinic as it took too long and I asked the local pig farmer if he would do it for me, he's an elderly Thai man, he said ok. Well why not, he injects his livestock, and so for the last few years this has been my best option. You have to view this with humour, his wife has a place where you can sit and have a meal, so I lay on the dining table and usually have a few local spectators to this event. I just love Thailand, imagine doing this in some of our home countries.

[AndyFoxy]

8 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Using the straw as the needle/syringe while slightly tipping the bottle upwards as it empties via the straw.....brilliant !

Sorted......who needs Sinovac.

[phetphet]

12 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

3rd wave?  Have you missed the current 3rd wave we are in now here in Thailand?

i thought we are on the 2nd wave, which started with people being allowed to travel for Songkran.

[Excel]

57 minutes ago, Forza2002 said:

CP Group could come to the rescue, with their resources (money) & vaccines (Sinovac). From memory there are ~12,000 7-11's in Thailand. Put 1 nurse & assistant in each store for an hour or two everyday. 20 jabs * 12,000 = 240,000 per day, SORTED... 

Sorry no can do. There is a big monetary payout next month by CP for a birthday present, Last year it was a 100 million.

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, phetphet said:

i thought we are on the 2nd wave, which started with people being allowed to travel for Songkran.

Kinda the 3rd wave.  We had a blip back in March/April last year.  A pretty big one late last year.  And now this one.  It's big.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand

[timberpond]

Many Oracle had said this here 2 months ago.

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

“We don’t have the personnel to inoculate millions in a quick amount of time, it will become a logistical issue next,” the source told Thai Enquirer on condition of anonymity

I guess a year to train people up is just not enough time

[WaveHunter]

This is just crazy!  Just what sort of qualifications do you need to inject a vaccine?  It doesn't require a trained specialist., or even a registered nurse for that matter. In fact, in many countries, it's commonplace to get pharmaceutical injections from a local pharmacy. 

 

Truth is, injecting a vaccine is no different than injecting any sort of medication with a syringe.  Anybody can be trained to do it safely and effectively in minutes.  This is not rocket science!  People with diabetes are easily taught to self-inject medication.  So, this is just nonsense that lack of personnel should be an excuse for a delayed rollout.

 

These kind of news stories are just so damaging to public morale, especially when the news story is from an "unidentified source under conditions of anonymity", as was the case in this particular news story.  Just another example of media story using sensational  bait click tactics to sell advertising!  No official within the Ministry of Public Health would make such irresponsible statement!

Edited June 4, 2021 by WaveHunter

[zyphodb]

Thailand will only get the vaccine at whatever speed the unmentionable's factory can roll them out. Can't have them losing money now can we? 

[Joe Farang]

"The Source" says this. "The Source" says that.

 

Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.

[Forza2002]

Looks like Thailand is ramping up their game now. Adult population Thailand ~53M so only another 50M to go.... or 35M to achieve 70% herd immunity on 1st jab... given that the stats are from a TAT website I wonder how accurate they are?   https://www.tatnews.org/2021/06/thailand-covid-19-situation-as-of-3-june-2021-12-30-hrs-2/ 

[WaveHunter]

2 minutes ago, Forza2002 said:

Looks like Thailand is ramping up their game now. Adult population Thailand ~53M so only another 50M to go.... or 35M to achieve 70% herd immunity on 1st jab... given that the stats are from a TAT website I wonder how accurate they are?   https://www.tatnews.org/2021/06/thailand-covid-19-situation-as-of-3-june-2021-12-30-hrs-2/ 

You should consider that 70 % for herd immunity does not require those with natural antigens from previous (recovered) infection, or children under 12 to be vaccinated.  So, the actual number of people that must receive vaccination to achieve herd immunity is significantly less than 70% of the total population.

[Justgrazing]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

 

Thailand’s vaccination program is set to hit another roadblock in the coming months

 

Perfect time for the mother of all brake failures then .. 

[Fromas]

1 minute ago, WaveHunter said:

So, the actual number of people that must receive vaccination to achieve herd immunity is significantly less than 70% of the total population.

 

That estimate of 70% needed, could be revised upwards if new variants are more transmissible.

 

 

 

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

You should consider that 70 % for herd immunity does not require those with natural antigens from previous (recovered) infection, or children under 12 to be vaccinated.  So, the actual number of people that must receive vaccination to achieve herd immunity is significantly less than 70% of the total population.

I'm pretty sure even if you've been previously infected you should get jabbed.  They don't really know how long the immunity lasts, or if it will work with the variants.  You can still get sick and pass it around.

 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-you-need-to-get-vaccinated-even-if-youve-already-had-covid-19

 

And that 70% for herd immunity might be low.  Could be as much as 85%.  And some say we'll never get there.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

 

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

 

[MasterBaker]

sell it at 7-11, even monkey can make itself a jab

[WaveHunter]

9 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I'm pretty sure even if you've been previously infected you should get jabbed.  They don't really know how long the immunity lasts, or if it will work with the variants.  You can still get sick and pass it around.

 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-you-need-to-get-vaccinated-even-if-youve-already-had-covid-19

 

And that 70% for herd immunity might be low.  Could be as much as 85%.  And some say we'll never get there.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

 

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

 

Some experts now are stating far lower than 70% for herd immunity, while some are saying it will not happen at all. Some experts firmly believe that antigens from natural infection and recovery are actually more effective than vaccination while others disagree.  I think it's safe to say that the actual truths will only be known after we can look back on this from a historical perspective, once Covid is in check worldwide.

Edited June 4, 2021 by WaveHunter

[Jimbo2014]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

According to the source, even if millions of vaccines were suddenly available the country does not have the capacity to inoculate more than a set number per day creating a vaccination bottleneck.

 

The hospitals reported today that they cant get government approval to administer vaccines - maybe someone from the Health Ministry or PMs office should call them and see if they can help? ????

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Some experts now are stating far lower than 70% for herd immunity, while some are saying it will not happen at all. Some experts firmly believe that antigens from natural infection and recovery are actually more effective than vaccination while others disagree.  I think it's safe to say that nobody really knows how herd immunity will play out...until it actually does.

70% is a minimum, there are many variables but I've certainly not seen any studies by scientists where they take in previously infected people. Besides which there has been less than 50,000 infected so far in this third wave in Bangkok

 

It also depends a lot on the vaccine efficacy which has a huge impact on the level of vaccines to achieve herd immunity and the time it takes for the vaccine roll out as this also has an impact on the continued efficacy of the vaccines.

 

To make an assumption that 70% is enough is a wild prediction that does not fit with latest studies

Edited June 4, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[mark131v]

3 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

but... But... BUT...

 

wasn't it only yesterday that the deputy director of the Department of Disease Control INSISTED that... and I quote... "at least 500,000 people could be jabbed each day nationwide and up to one million"?

 

 

Oh come on, be fair!!

 

You cannot expect the good folk to know the answer to stuff when they make a statement that's just not right

 

It's a genetic thing they are completely unable to engage brain before opening mouth and that's not their fault as when they see a camera or chance to get in the spotlight they must take it, right now...

 

Bit like lemming's really except lemming's do seem to be more intelligent and far less corrupt... 

[Emdog]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

This is just crazy!  Just what sort of qualifications do you need to inject a vaccine?  It doesn't require a trained specialist., or even a registered nurse for that matter. In fact, in many countries, it's commonplace to get pharmaceutical injections from a local pharmacy. 

 

Truth is, injecting a vaccine is no different than injecting any sort of medication with a syringe.  Anybody can be trained to do it safely and effectively in minutes.  This is not rocket science!  People with diabetes are easily taught to self-inject medication.  So, this is just nonsense that lack of personnel should be an excuse for a delayed rollout.

 

These kind of news stories are just so damaging to public morale, especially when the news story is from an "unidentified source under conditions of anonymity", as was the case in this particular news story.  Just another example of media story using sensational  bait click tactics to sell advertising!  No official within the Ministry of Public Health would make such irresponsible statement!

Amen to this post. If I were back in Oregon, I could walk to local Walgreen's to get a shot. Just got email this morning on another site:

"Yakima Valley Farm Workers Clinic Rosewood - All brand available 6/3 - 6/16
06-03-2021
Rosewood Family Health at Gateway"

All brands available....

Just more lies and BS from hub of ineptitude and corruption. Would be funny if people weren't dying from this virus

[Forza2002]

59 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

You should consider that 70 % for herd immunity does not require those with natural antigens from previous (recovered) infection, or children under 12 to be vaccinated.  So, the actual number of people that must receive vaccination to achieve herd immunity is significantly less than 70% of the total population.

 

I did not say total population. I said adult population.... Whatever the number, it's going to be a long road with many twists and turns...

Edited June 4, 2021 by Forza2002

[sqwakvfr]

Innovation and forward thinking?  Severely lacking.  The US did something new and innovative:  Local Pharmacies.  Besides 7-11's I believe LOS has a lot of pharmacies.  How about an experiment:  Designate certain pharmacists in each province to vaccinate people based upon age and health conditions.  At first designate pharmacists at the major chains(like Boots and Watson's).  Pharmacist's are licensed so would they not have a vested interest in following vaccination policy and safeguarding the vaccines itself.  The Chinese Vaccines do not need extreme cold storage.  Pfizer could be extremely difficult for local pharmacies to store.  

Edited June 4, 2021 by sqwakvfr

[WaveHunter]

44 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

70% is a minimum, there are many variables but I've certainly not seen any studies by scientists where they take in previously infected people. Besides which there has been less than 50,000 infected so far in this third wave in Bangkok

 

It also depends a lot on the vaccine efficacy which has a huge impact on the level of vaccines to achieve herd immunity and the time it takes for the vaccine roll out as this also has an impact on the continued efficacy of the vaccines.

 

To make an assumption that 70% is enough is a wild prediction that does not fit with latest studies

Herd immunity is achieved when one infected person in a population generates less than one secondary case on average, which corresponds to the effective reproduction number R (that is, the average number of persons infected by a case) dropping below 1 in the absence of interventions. 

 

There are no hard and fast rules for what percentage of the population (as a whole) needs to be vaccinated in order to achieve that goal.  The WHO estimates between 60-80%.  Some scientist however estimate as little as 50%, and there is strong science to back up these lower numbers.

 

With the increase in variants, which are more infectious and could potentially impact the effectiveness of the vaccines, that percentage is now estimated that it could be higher—some say up to 85%.

 

Just as important though, the typical calculations for the herd immunity threshold assume that each community member has the same susceptibility to the virus and mix randomly with everyone else in the community.  However, that does not happen in real life.  In actuality, Herd immunity can vary from group to group, and subpopulation to subpopulation.  Once such real-world variations in density and demographics are accounted for, the mathematical estimates for herd immunity fall. 

 

Therefore, herd immunity modeling during an ongoing pandemic can only be mathematical models, so it's really impossible to predict what percentage of the population as a whole must be vaccinated in order to achieve actual herd immunity.  It can only be known for certain from a historical perspective.

 

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by WaveHunter

[khunjeff]

3 hours ago, DavisH said:

It's not a fast process as it requires a medical check first, the jab, then sitting around for 30 mins to check for adverse reactions.

 

It would be a much faster process if they didn't insist on things like medical checks, elaborate registration procedures, "verification" of ID documents, and (at private hospitals, at least) the involvement of a physician.

 

As others have pointed out, the shots can be quickly and safely administered by medics, pharmacists, veterinarians, EMTs, and others. And if you see videos of the procedures in the US (there are plenty on YouTube), you'll see that all the providers do is confirm your name and ask whether you've ever had Covid or had an allergic reaction to any vaccine. Afterwards, you're left on your own for 15 minutes to monitor your own reactions, and then you leave without further ado if you feel ok. It just doesn't have to be this complicated.