Thailand’s vaccination program is about to run into another roadblock

[Lingba]

what a surprise!...in the meantime the US started shipping a surplus of Pfizer and Moderna and J&J vaccines all over the world to many countries to help their citizens...Gee..I wonder if Thailand has accepted them for their people

[jacko45k]

51 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Some experts now are stating far lower than 70% for herd immunity, while some are saying it will not happen at all.

Most of the herd immunity figures bandied about were in the early 'clutch at straws... it's just the flu' days. Since then we have got much more transmissible variants. That will take the herd immunity number higher. I look to 100% all adults vaccinated now, as even that is not 100% immune.

Edited June 4, 2021 by jacko45k

[WaveHunter]

18 minutes ago, Forza2002 said:

 

I did not say total population. I said adult population.... Whatever the number, it's going to be a long road with many twists and turns...

I sure agree with this being a long road with many twists and turns!  My point is only that the actual percentage number for herd immunity threshold is unknown becuase it is only a hypothetical mathematical model that can determine it, which does not account for a real life situation. 

 

The number could be as high as 85% if you take into account the increased transmissibility of present variants, or new ones that may be on the horizon.

 

On the other hand it could be as low as 50% when you take into account real-world demographics since the typical calculations for the herd immunity threshold assume that each community member has the same susceptibility to the virus and mix randomly with everyone else in the community, which actually does not happen in real life.

 

In actuality, Herd immunity can vary from group to group, and subpopulation to subpopulation.  Once such real-world variations in density and demographics are accounted for, the mathematical estimates for herd immunity fall. 

 

The point is...there is really no way to determine herd immunity threshold during an ongoing pandemic.  It can only be determined from historical perspective after the pandemic has actually ended.

Edited June 4, 2021 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

3 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Most of the herd immunity figures bandied about were in the early 'clutch at straws... it's just the flu' days. Since then we have got much more transmissible variants. That will take the herd immunity number higher. I look to 100% all adults vaccinated now, as even that is not 100% immune.

Most scientists agree that 100% immunity will never happen.  Covid is here to stay, just like the common flu virus, but just like the flu, the transmissibility of the virus can be kept in check with vaccinations.

[Cake Monster]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Not enough trained people?.  Why not ask the military to supply medics to help.

They may be too busy taking care of their own.

We have not heard of any reports though.

[Cake Monster]

11 minutes ago, Lingba said:

what a surprise!...in the meantime the US started shipping a surplus of Pfizer and Moderna and J&J vaccines all over the world to many countries to help their citizens...Gee..I wonder if Thailand has accepted them for their people

The Yanks are having a Yard Sale.

[vangrop]

“We don’t have the personnel to inoculate millions in a quick amount of time, it will become a logistical issue next,” the source told Thai Enquirer on condition of anonymity.

 

These injections are very simple to inoculate yourself. No doctor , nurse or wathever needed. j

Just make the shot available at the pharmacy and do it yourself. Fake problem!!!!

Edited June 4, 2021 by vangrop

[atpeace]

5 hours ago, RandolphGB said:

‘One of the major hurdles in the way of the government’s plans to increase its inoculation capacity has been the lack of coordination between various government ministries and organs.’

 

It’ll take over a year to vaccinate the whole population, by which point, nobody knows how the virus will have developed 

 

 

 

They will never vacinate the whole population. However, they will vacinate enough people by the end of the year. Probaly much sooner. Not a fact, just a big hunch. 

[Soikhaonoiken]

This report can't be True... 

About 2 Months back, Anutin said they are going to vaccinate           10 million people per Month.... 

(wish I could find the post) 

[vangrop]

5 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

There are plenty of veterinary surgeons here...

Yeah for the dirty pig farangs

[atpeace]

2 minutes ago, vangrop said:

“We don’t have the personnel to inoculate millions in a quick amount of time, it will become a logistical issue next,” the source told Thai Enquirer on condition of anonymity.

 

These injections are very simple to inoculate yourself. No doctor , nurse or wathever needed. j

Just make the shot available at the pharmacy and do it yourself. Fake problem!!!!

What country is doing this? This approach has many flaws. Think it through. It might even work but if you can't see the issues your argument lacks consideration

[atpeace]

8 minutes ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

This report can't be True... 

About 2 Months back, Anutin said they are going to vaccinate           10 million people per Month.... 

(wish I could find the post) 

What month? I would be surprised if they dont surpass this number. If they start in earnest  july 1 by october I bet they are 10 mil plus for the month. Not a huge accomplishment. 

Edited June 4, 2021 by atpeace

[ThaiFelix]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Apparently they needed to wait until D day to determine this. What a plan they have...Anutin needs to go...as well as the Czar.

Come on guys, give the man a break....I mean its not like he had .......oh...over a years warning??  And you surely cant expect them to get everything right?.....anything right?.....something right?.....damn there must be something here for the Thai apologists??!!

 

 

[ThaiFelix]

12 minutes ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

This report can't be True... 

About 2 Months back, Anutin said they are going to vaccinate           10 million people per Month.... 

(wish I could find the post) 

Ha.....ha.....ha.....ha.....he got you good didnt he lol!  Dont you remember him saying he had never been to jail but he did live there once?  That was enough for me lol!

Edited June 4, 2021 by ThaiFelix

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

According to the source, even if millions of vaccines were suddenly available the country does not have the capacity to inoculate more than a set number per day creating a vaccination bottleneck.

Ther'es a hole in my bucket dear liza there's a hole in my bucket.

[ThaiFelix]

43 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

The Yanks are having a Yard Sale.

Just dont accept any free blankets from them lol

 

[zhounan]

These days university teachers have been called in for vaccination with veiled threats. 

(and I ask myself why)

Edited June 4, 2021 by zhounan

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“We don’t have the personnel to inoculate millions in a quick amount of time, it will become a logistical issue next,” the source told Thai Enquirer on condition of anonymity.

 

They've had more than a year to plan but appear to have done nothing.

 

Why could that be? I have a few ideas....

 

It sounds to me like there has never been a plan for mass vaccinations, there was no intention to vaccinate the population unlike every other country on earth.

I'm really beginning to suspect that these morons have spent most of the last year thinking Thailand somehow 'got away with it' with regards to COVID.

 

How could that happen? Possibly because they know they're superior versions of human beings when compared to everyone else? I can't think of any other explanation for it, it's a virus in the wild and they made no preparations.

 

I remember the Japanese health ministers comments when the AIDS epidemic was about to kick off back in the 80's - his words were something along the lines of 'Japanese people can't get this disease', a classic example of Asian superiority which cost many thousands of lives.

That was just before a massive outbreak of HIV cases in Japan which of course were mainly driven by contaminated blood products.

 

Sitting on your ass and doing nothing reaps rewards, in this case it's COVID and it's everywhere, forever.

 

[Spilornis]

4 hours ago, DavisH said:

Not unexpected. The UK has about 4x the numbe of nursing staff per head of population than Thailand. About 200K jabs were given yeasterday. My wife was doign about 100 a day at Bang Sue station. It's not a fast process as it requires a medical check first, the jab, then sitting around for 30 mins to check for adverse reactions. I'd be happy to see 500K jabs a day - but then doses will beome limiting if they can only supply 10M a month. 

Agree but other than the jab each step can be done by a non medical person with simple organisational skills. Any problem referred to roaming medical staff.

The jab itself can be done in about one minute.

Chinese nurses are reportedly giving around 30-40per hour using this approach.

As you say supply and getting the supply to the vaccination centre is the real problem

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

Herd immunity is achieved when one infected person in a population generates less than one secondary case on average, which corresponds to the effective reproduction number R (that is, the average number of persons infected by a case) dropping below 1 in the absence of interventions. 

 

There are no hard and fast rules for what percentage of the population (as a whole) needs to be vaccinated in order to achieve that goal.  The WHO estimates between 60-80%.  Some scientist however estimate as little as 50%, and there is strong science to back up these lower numbers.

 

With the increase in variants, which are more infectious and could potentially impact the effectiveness of the vaccines, that percentage is now estimated that it could be higher—some say up to 85%.

 

Just as important though, the typical calculations for the herd immunity threshold assume that each community member has the same susceptibility to the virus and mix randomly with everyone else in the community.  However, that does not happen in real life.  In actuality, Herd immunity can vary from group to group, and subpopulation to subpopulation.  Once such real-world variations in density and demographics are accounted for, the mathematical estimates for herd immunity fall. 

 

Therefore, herd immunity modeling during an ongoing pandemic can only be mathematical models, so it's really impossible to predict what percentage of the population as a whole must be vaccinated in order to achieve actual herd immunity.  It can only be known for certain from a historical perspective.

 

 

Evidence on this other than an opinion?

"Some scientist however estimate as little as 50%, and there is strong science to back up these lower numbers."

 

Before your little essay you said this, where is your evidence of this?:

"So, the actual number of people that must receive vaccination to achieve herd immunity is significantly less than 70% of the total population."

 

Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32318-7/fulltext

 

My whole point was that vaccine efficacy has a very large impact on herd immunity, basic logic.

 

Of course, vaccine efficacy will have an impact on herd immunity thresholds.

https://www.path.org/articles/understanding-journey-herd-immunity/

Edited June 4, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[chalawaan]

5 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

There are plenty of veterinary surgeons here...

Don't laugh, Vets do longer med school than human family practitioners.

And they have saved human lives in places like on transcontinental aircraft in life-threatening emergencies.

[Lacessit]

Given the amount of time it took me to get a flu shot at my private hospital in Chiang Rai, I'm not surprised there's a delivery bottleneck.

Remove the doctors with their hands out for a consultation fee, and get straight to the nurses that actually do the shots. Double or triple the speed of administration.

[NanLaew]

5 hours ago, ChipButty said:

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

  Why not ask the military to supply medics to help.

They dont have enough people trained to administer an injection, 

 

The UK certainly didn't have enough people trained to administer the injections before they rolled out their saturation carpet-bombing national vaccination drive. They did enlist and train volunteers that included calling up retired NHS workers and other healthcare professionals to get the job done.

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/join-the-nhs-covid-19-vaccine-team/

 

If there's a will to get something done, it can be delivered. There's no will here. None at all.

[KhaoYai]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“We don’t have the personnel to inoculate millions in a quick amount of time, it will become a logistical issue next,” the source told Thai Enquirer on condition of anonymity.

Yes, its all been a bit of a rush - there's not been much time to prepare.

[chalawaan]

You can teach anyone smart enough to pass a basic First Aid course and that could include how to give a jab.

 

A doctor or experienced nurse could oversee a "platoon" of volunteer "jabbers".

 

Back in the days of yore, to pass basic infantry school, we had to find a vein and take 10cc blood from our mates, this was to be able to rig a drip in the field if need be.

 

It's not hard to get this rolling, it is hard to find anyone in power, worldwide, who isn't there because they're an industrial psychopath and should in fact be in a padded cell.

Our collective troubles would plummet if leadership was a calling and not a rort.

[ChipButty]

6 minutes ago, chalawaan said:

You can teach anyone smart enough to pass a basic First Aid course and that could include how to give a jab.

 

A doctor or experienced nurse could oversee a "platoon" of volunteer "jabbers".

 

Back in the days of yore, to pass basic infantry school, we had to find a vein and take 10cc blood from our mates, this was to be able to rig a drip in the field if need be.

 

It's not hard to get this rolling, it is hard to find anyone in power, worldwide, who isn't there because they're an industrial psychopath and should in fact be in a padded cell.

Our collective troubles would plummet if leadership was a calling and not a rort.

We learn that in the cadets 

[Deerculler]

I really enjoy it when I see a sensible post.

[sqwakvfr]

Now I understand.  I thought I had seen Bureaucracy and Governmental redundancy in the Middle East but this latest episode in LOS takes it to a new level.  Some on TVF have declared the current state in LOS as a Catastrophe but the way the government is responding says they do not see it in the same way.  In a true disaster(man made or natural) that is a catastrophe then "all hands on deck".  Draft all pharmacists, pharmacy students, nursing students(schools are closed?), military nurses and medical technician,. enlist the assistance of pharmacy chains and set up a plan to distribute and vaccinate as many as possible 7 days a week.  7 days a weeks would mean suspending holidays until the 70% is reached.  Missing a holiday or two should be the price all in LOS would be willing to pay to overcome the pandemic and go back to "normal" so tourism can flourish again?? Yes or No.

 

I do  recall getting a flu shot at CM Ram and I had to see a doctor before I could get the shot by a technician(not even a nurse was present).  I saw the doctor for a grand total of 2 minutes.  The additional charge to see the doctor was 200 Baht.  

This way of conducting business has to cease while dealing with the pandemic.  When the 70% is achieved then they can go back to "business as normal".  

[chalawaan]

Just now, ChipButty said:

We learn that in the cadets 

There you go, so  this Army-obsessed country has no shortage of suitable candidates then, the jab is cakewalk compared to not screwing up a blood sample, even nurses who take blood every day miss, or go right thru the vein. The jabs are tiny, pop it into any meaty bit and plunge, done.

[ChipButty]

5 minutes ago, Deerculler said:

I really enjoy it when I see a sensible post.

When was that?