Thailand’s vaccination program is about to run into another roadblock

[WaveHunter]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I read it and even quoted from it. Its estimate of 50 herd immunity is now defunct.

OMG!!! How many times do I have to say this?  My posts have not been about the damn numbers!    It is about the validity of mathematical modelling that is devoid of human variables or other changes that will occur as a pandemic progresses!  Herd immunity thresholds are only valid from a historical perspective...after the pandemic has ended.

Edited June 4, 2021 by WaveHunter

[rumak]

 

“We don’t have enough brown envelopes to inoculate millions in a quick amount of time.   This has become a logistical issue as different agencies are waiting , sleeves rolled up "

 

source :   Rumak 

Edited June 4, 2021 by rumak

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

OMG!!! My posts have not been about the damn numbers!  How many times do I have to say that?  It is about the validity of mathematical modelling that is devoid of human variables!  

Yes they have, you said this:

 

"Some scientist however estimate as little as 50%, and there is strong science to back up these lower numbers."

 

This is what I'm refuting with clear evidence based science that we have now.

[WaveHunter]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes they have, you said this:

 

"Some scientist however estimate as little as 50%, and there is strong science to back up these lower numbers."

 

This is what I'm refuting with clear evidence based science that we have now.

LOL...I said that as an example of why computer modeling alone is flawed, not that 50% is a valid number, or that I believe their research proves it to be valid.  You are entirely missing my point.

[Damrongsak]

8 hours ago, smedly said:

tourism areas are highest priority - I thought that was obvious

 

The authorities have a habit of saying what they are doing then doing something completely different - it only comes to light when the reality of what is actually happening is exposed like in the OP

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, WaveHunter said:

LOL...I said that as an example of why computer modeling alone is flawed, not that 50% is a valid number, or that I believe their research proves it to be valid.  You are entirely missing my point.

Really? You also said this:

 

"On the other hand it could be as low as 50% when you take into account real-world demographics since the typical calculations for the herd immunity threshold assume that each community member has the same susceptibility to the virus and mix randomly with everyone else in the community, which actually does not happen in real life."

 

Where is the reference to computer modelling?

[nattaya09]

What are they up to after three months....2% of the population?

[WaveHunter]

19 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Really? You also said this:

 

"On the other hand it could be as low as 50% when you take into account real-world demographics since the typical calculations for the herd immunity threshold assume that each community member has the same susceptibility to the virus and mix randomly with everyone else in the community, which actually does not happen in real life."

 

Where is the reference to computer modelling?

Look we can go round and round on this all night but I'm not much into silly "pissing matches" and this is becoming a total waste of time with your penchant for playing the "Gotcha game".

 

I've made it clear that I don't believe any herd immunity threshold number is valid; not 70%, not 50%, not any specific number at all!  It's simply impossible to know until the pandemic has peaked.  What's more, It's a pointless exercise while a pandemic is still ongoing.  It's only significance is from a historical perspective...AFTER the pandemic has ended.

 

All that matters is the R-naught.  Unlike Herd immunity threshold, the R-naught number is specific and can precisely be tracked as the pandemic progresses.  Once it goes below 1, the pandemic is over.

Edited June 4, 2021 by WaveHunter

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

Look we can go round and round all night on this but I'm not much into silly "pissing matches" and this is becoming a total waste of time with your penchant for playing the "Gotcha game".

 

I've made it clear that I don't believe any herd immunity threshold number is valid; not 70%, not 50%, not any number at all!  It's simply impossible to know until the pandemic has peaked.  It's a pointless exercise while a pandemic is still ongoing.  It's only significance is from a historical perspective...AFTER the pandemic has ended.

 

All that matters is the R-naught.  Unlike Herd immunity threshold, the R-naught number is specific and can precisely be tracked as the pandemic progresses.  Once it goes below 1, the pandemic is over.

Ok we'll just disregard your previou posts then as you've now changed the goal posts ignoring you own previous statements

[Jen65]

is that a surprise ???  

[natway09]

First reaction, let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

Second is to stop hoarding & allow them to be sent all over the country.

There are over 700 stations outside of Bangkok that can & would inject all the product they can supply..

It is just another" delay" tactic & I hope not to make money, but I wonder ?

[newnative]

Haven't they had 6 months to sort this out?  What have all those committees been doing?

[heybuz]

12 hours ago, Uroller said:

This calls for all hands on deck????

Baht symptoms.

[atpeace]

16 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

I sure agree with this being a long road with many twists and turns!  My point is only that the actual percentage number for herd immunity threshold is unknown becuase it is only a hypothetical mathematical model that can determine it, which does not account for a real life situation. 

 

The number could be as high as 85% if you take into account the increased transmissibility of present variants, or new ones that may be on the horizon.

 

On the other hand it could be as low as 50% when you take into account real-world demographics since the typical calculations for the herd immunity threshold assume that each community member has the same susceptibility to the virus and mix randomly with everyone else in the community, which actually does not happen in real life.

 

In actuality, Herd immunity can vary from group to group, and subpopulation to subpopulation.  Once such real-world variations in density and demographics are accounted for, the mathematical estimates for herd immunity fall. 

 

The point is...there is really no way to determine herd immunity threshold during an ongoing pandemic.  It can only be determined from historical perspective after the pandemic has actually ended.

Wow, hard read, What exactly is your point.  Also, using your logic, reread your post, you will never be wrong 100% of the time.  Long road ( ???? ) and well , the rest of the post....

 

Briefly rewording your post from my perspective:

We will never know the exact percentage to reach herd immunity but we do know it will be achieved at some point and quite possibly as low as 50%.  

[atpeace]

From what I've gathered, it is simply a supply issue.  Thailand did not manufacture a vaccine nor does it have the network of many developed nations.  Once the supply problem is resolved, and it will be in the next few months, distribution will not be an issue.

 

Thailand's response to Covid has been stellar as a whole and the current vaccine distribution isn't going great at the moment.  Their initial response  to Covid was something they could control.  This current vaccine rollout  has to frustrating for them and they seem to have complete disregard for supplying the public with a plan and progress reports.   

[NoshowJones]

21 hours ago, Denim said:

Where's Eric Bristow when you need him ?

 

180 in less than a minute ..................sorted.

Who??

[Excel]

2 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

Who??

You mean the Doctor ?

[NoshowJones]

1 minute ago, Excel said:

You mean the Doctor ?

Ok, but what has a TV series got to do with the topic?

[Excel]

Just now, possum1931 said:

Ok, but what has a TV series got to do with the topic?

About as much as your reply , which was "Who??",  when Denim posted

 

Where's Eric Bristow when you need him ?

 

180 in less than a minute ..................sorted.

[NoshowJones]

1 minute ago, Excel said:

About as much as your reply , which was "Who??",  when Denim posted

 

Where's Eric Bristow when you need him ?

 

180 in less than a minute ..................sorted.

I just saw the name and it seemed familiar, so I asked a mate and he said he was a darts or snooker player, then again, what has these two boring games got to do with the topic?

[WaveHunter]

4 hours ago, atpeace said:

Wow, hard read, What exactly is your point.  Also, using your logic, reread your post, you will never be wrong 100% of the time.  Long road ( ???? ) and well , the rest of the post....

 

Briefly rewording your post from my perspective:

We will never know the exact percentage to reach herd immunity but we do know it will be achieved at some point and quite possibly as low as 50%.  

Your rewording is not what I said at all.  My point is that determining the actual herd immunity threshold is impossible to do while a pandemic is still active.  Predicting it is no more accurate than forecasting the weather simply because there are too many real-world human variables that are not accounted for in a mathematical model, and there is no way to know what future mutations may occur in the virus, that could either raise or lower the transmissibility or virulence of the virus.

 

Remember that mutations can not only raise the transmissibility and virulence of a virus, but they can also lower it.  I mean, consider how herd immunity  occured with the Spanish Flu virus.  There was no vaccine available to induce herd immunity.  Herd immunity was created as the result of about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus.  In addition to this, many experts believe that the virus also mutated to become less virulent and transmissible over time.   

 

There was no way this could have been predicted or forecasted.  The actual fact is that the Spanish Flu virus is still with us today but mutations have made it hardly recognizable today.

Edited June 5, 2021 by WaveHunter

[cdemundo]

What kind of training is needed in order to be able to administer the vaccine under supervision?

I would think limited medical training would be needed as long supervision from nurses was present.

Are there legal requirements that make it difficult?

Seems like you could train a lot people just to give the jab safely under supervision in a relatively short time.

 

[Kwasaki]

On 6/4/2021 at 9:43 AM, ThailandRyan said:

Not enough trained people?.  Why not ask the military to supply medics to help.

The military are busy changing the name on the bottles of Sinovac. ????

[Excel]

Just now, Kwasaki said:

The military are busy changing the name on the bottles of Sinovac. ????

And those not doing that are helping illegals cross the border

[richard_smith237]

There are 1318 hospitals in Thailand.

 

Get the vaccines to the hospitals !!!.... 

 

The distribution is clearly going to be different from the raw numbers - but 70 million people could be vaccinated at 1318 hopitals within a month.

 

If each hospital has 5 nurses - injecting a patient every 2 minutes (x5) for 12 hours a day = 1800 people per day per hospital. 

 

Hospitals have a lot more than 5 nurses !!!! surely nurses can give injections ?

 

Of course it's not as clear cut as that - but it does highlight how its possible.

 

 

 

The issue is of course not ‘getting people vaccinated’ but the lack of vaccines.

 

 

[WaveHunter]

Again, this whole "roadblock" story is a sham IMO.  It's nothing but a self-serving, click-bait fabrication designed to gain attention and make money for the publisher.  Whenever a news story is entirely based on quotes from an "anonymous" source you should automatically be suspicious.  

 

The publisher, Thai Enquirer, has a history of posting such sensational, but unsubstantiated stories.  It's a good marketing tactic I suppose, but it is unethical and irresponsible journalism.

Edited June 5, 2021 by WaveHunter

[trainman34014]

19 hours ago, newnative said:

Haven't they had 6 months to sort this out?  What have all those committees been doing?

Taking the money; drinking the wine and eating the free food.   And of course telling their friends and families how important they are !

[Artisi]

On 6/4/2021 at 9:43 AM, ThailandRyan said:

Not enough trained people?.  Why not ask the military to supply medics to help.

Please don't bring any logic to the problem, it's not helpful. 

[Artisi]

On 6/4/2021 at 9:47 AM, ThailandRyan said:

Apparently they needed to wait until D day to determine this. What a plan they have...Anutin needs to go...as well as the Czar.

But would replacements be any better, we know the current incompetents are incompetent and could well be streets ahead of other - probably better to muddle thru with the current drolls and allow others to try and  circumvent their stupidity. 

[Artisi]

On 6/4/2021 at 9:51 AM, Smithson said:

I hope they've got extra syringes on the shopping list

Trust you have flagged that to napolean, just in case he slipped up.