1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

For example - let's say that you and I are identical in every way and have the exact same risk exposure to something negative happening; say 10%. One of us might be comfortable with the 90% odds of something negative not happening, while the other person might find that risk 10% risk unacceptably high. There's a degree of subjectivity in individual comfort with risk.

What if the risk is 0.15%? with 99.85% odds of something negative not happening?

Just now, BritManToo said:

What if the risk is 0.15%? with 99.85% odds of something negative not happening?

I would have never imagined the world is full of people so afraid of dying they would rather give up 90% of their freedom just  to feel some kind of false sense of security.

It's been 1 year and a half of this nonsense, let us live our life <deleted>

3 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

Yes. To some degree this is true. But we cannot be expected to remain constrained until the very last holdout consents to accept the risk.

 

The reality is that yes, unfortunately some people will die from Covid. The vast majority will not. Quality of time on Earth beats length of time on Earth, and if the vaccine rollout still hasn't delivered in four months(!) time, there is certainly a case to be made for a full reopening regardless.

No. If the vaccine rollout still hasn’t delivered in four months time, there is a case to be made to fire those in charge of it and bring in competent people.
 

The need for necessary protection doesn’t go away just because something fails. It’s still a necessary step.

4 minutes ago, josthomz said:

 

What if you have a motorbike accident and need urgent surgery to save your life, but all the hospital beds are occupied by people infected with COVID which while most won't die need intensive care. 

 

You are forgetting that COVID's low death rate, is only a consequence of nowadays intensive & life support care which many times implies having a machine take over the functions which your organs should do. And providing that intensive care eats away a whole lot of resources that other people may need for different reasons. 

 

It's not all about death.

Your wrong in thinking the hospitals are full of only Covid patients unfortunately. As well as believing that and you wont get the surgery you need if in an accident.  The hospitals have dedicated covid units, and still maintain general hospital wards for sick or injured patients who need surgery, as well as ICU's for general patients as well.

3 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

I would have never imagined the world is full of people so afraid of dying they would rather give up 90% of their freedom just  to feel some kind of false sense of security.

It's been 1 year and a half of this nonsense, let us live our life <deleted>

Tbh, I don’t think I have given up 90% of my freedom. The only thing that I can’t do, which I really really would like to do, is travel internationally, and Thailand opening or not opening, doesn’t effect that one iota. The position of other countries is just as important a factor.

 

for other people it’s different because they live life differently, or they are business owners and are hugely effected by the restrictions.

5 hours ago, smedly said:

4. Set out a plan for late 2022 that gradually opens up the country to foreign tourists

 

no country left for tourists by late 2022 if not opening before

Meanwhile Europe it's mostly back to normal with stadium almost full of people watching football matches while in Thailand I have to wear a mask even when I take a poop.

3 minutes ago, josthomz said:

 

Yes that is with things as they are now here in Thailand. 

 

What would happen if they lift off all measures and the number of cases start doubling or tripling day by day? 

 

What happened in India a few months ago during their peak of the pandemic? There were no beds for anybody! Not for covid patients, not for other patients!!! 

Well then those field hospitals and those Hospitel ASQ's will get utilized it would seem, they still do have those in place.

So,Thailand is clearly full of Covid but they can't take the chances to let vaccinated people in.

How is this ever gonna end if the risk tolerance is this low?

Close the borders until the year 3987.   Take no chances.

 

I'm good now, you?  

 

OK, sorted.

 

Maybe import some bar girls.......but no more than 4 million.  ok ok

25 minutes ago, josthomz said:

What if you have a motorbike accident and need urgent surgery to save your life, but all the hospital beds are occupied by people infected with COVID which while most won't die need intensive care.

Infectious disease patients are kept in different wards to accidental injury patients

27 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

I would have never imagined the world is full of people so afraid of dying they would rather give up 90% of their freedom just  to feel some kind of false sense of security.

It's been 1 year and a half of this nonsense, let us live our life <deleted>

Doesn't like they are feeling secure to me.

We obviously need stricter rules, harsher lockdowns, enjoy the rest of your life.

18 minutes ago, josthomz said:

 

And then a shortage of oxygen would begin, a shortage of respirators, a shortage of drugs, a shortage of staff. 

 

It's been proven in multiple countries that nobody can cope with the spread rate of COVID19 when no measures are applied in such little time as it tends to spread.

 

Not only people with COVID would die in such cases (as it's happened in India). Besides it's worth mentioning that 0.45% might not sound like a lot. But if we take into account the whole world's population that's roughly 35 million people, which might not sound like a lot until your wife, son, daughter, parents become part of that number.... 

 

 

Natural selection and world is overpopulated anyhow. If time has come to go, it;s time to go.

 

Then these doctors need to be silenced!

If the world can't get on top of this virus in 18 months, then we just have to let it go. 99%+ of people don't die or get seriously sick, but 90%+ of people are affected by the constant restrictions. Not just Thailand, all around the world. 

5 hours ago, The Cipher said:

We keep hearing the opinions of folks trained as doctors about the response to Covid like it's solely an individual health issue.

 

But could it maybe be that Covid is actually a mutlifacted big data problem that requires a nuanced response with complex tradeoffs? And perhaps that maximization of lives saved might actually not be the optimal macro response to the pandemic? ????

In the end "big data" results in triage at clinics & hospitals. If you are talking about macroeconomics, an article was published last January about the cost effectiveness of increasing supply of vaccines, and the cost benefits:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1107

6 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

Hm. I guess a piece of useful advice would be that while it is definitely a good idea to get vaccinated, there's no point worrying about it or letting it affect you on a day to day basis.

 

It's easy to forget that "my immune system will handle it" is a valid response for ~99% of people who even catch Covid. There's some degree of risk to living a worthwhile life. Always has been.

 

 

You might not feel anything, but at the same time you could be infecting multiple people around you. After a time, many may die as a result of your 'what me worry' attitiude. Indian variant Covid will soon be the new normal, and if we don't start revising our lackadaisical attitudes, we could see a repeat of the Indian tragedy here.

6 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Really ? I think the odds are mostly with you. Unless you are 85 up, obese. a heavy smoker, heart conditions, cancer or generally unfit. Numbers below were up to June last year - clearly near 90% of deaths are people with other issues - which would mean if you are healthy you had 0.15 to 0.25 chance of death !

 

• With pre-existing condition: England and Wales - 45,859
• With pre-existing condition: England - 43,640
• With pre-existing condition: Wales -- 2156
• No pre-existing condition: England and Wales - 4476
• No pre-existing condition: England - 4169
• No pre-existing condition: Wales - 294

 

 

 

You should try the Indian figures, then multiply by 40 to get estimated real numbers. Due to the Indian variant, the profile of people seriously affected by Covid is much changed from last year. Now old people in the UK are vaccinated, but young people are ending up in ICU!

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Your wrong in thinking the hospitals are full of only Covid patients unfortunately. As well as believing that and you wont get the surgery you need if in an accident.  The hospitals have dedicated covid units, and still maintain general hospital wards for sick or injured patients who need surgery, as well as ICU's for general patients as well.

Thai hospitals are not overwhelmed now, but the Indian variant is very concerning. India touted itself as a medical hub, just as Thailand. Look at India now.

Edited June 17, 20215 yr by placnx
typo

1 hour ago, Deli said:

 

no country left for tourists by late 2022 if not opening before

Don’t be silly. The country will still be here. The temples, the beaches, the national parks, etc. of course business will have changed completely.

 

don’t forget, the decision is solely Thailand’s to make. You have to first create an environment where tourists want to come. Some basics need to be addressed to achieve that.

1 hour ago, Anton9 said:

So,Thailand is clearly full of Covid but they can't take the chances to let vaccinated people in.

How is this ever gonna end if the risk tolerance is this low?

Opening and having too many tourists come home with Covid could set back tourism for years.

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

Infectious disease patients are kept in different wards to accidental injury patients

It's more likely people who need elective but important care who would be first affected by wards being changed to Covid wards

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

Tbh, I don’t think I have given up 90% of my freedom. The only thing that I can’t do, which I really really would like to do, is travel internationally, and Thailand opening or not opening, doesn’t effect that one iota. The position of other countries is just as important a factor.

 

for other people it’s different because they live life differently, or they are business owners and are hugely effected by the restrictions.

I am seeing a worrying trend of people feeling that life is actually close to normal now. It's almost like we've been beaten  into submission by the pandemic. 

Life now is immeasurably different to life as it was 2 years ago, even with 'minimal' restrictions. In my opinion anyway. 

 

2 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I am seeing a worrying trend of people feeling that life is actually close to normal now. It's almost like we've been beaten  into submission by the pandemic. 

Life now is immeasurably different to life as it was 2 years ago, even with 'minimal' restrictions. In my opinion anyway. 

 

It depends on your life style I think. Daily life for me is virtually unchanged except that I have to wear a mask outside. It was different when schools were closed, that made a big difference to my daughter and therefore the family.

 

but I usually travel at least 5/6 times a year and THAT is a big loss. Playing golf in China with my friends twice year, hiking with my son in Eastern Europe, touring Europe with my youngest daughter and my sister and her family….I miss it all a lot. But daily routine, hasn’t changed a jot.

5 hours ago, PMinThailand said:

How about cutting the salaries of these doctors to make them understand how the population feels!

Ah yes, when you don't like the message, shoot the messanger

 

That'll solve all of the problems!

7 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I don't like the odds... 1.5-2.5% of those infected in other countries die. Many get something called long Covid... doesn't sound good. And many have unpleasant symptoms ... it nearly killed the UK PM. 

 

Which one has more chances of killing you, or giving you long term problems ?

and yet people ignore this and worry about Covid ?

8 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

Which one has more chances of killing you, or giving you long term problems ?

and yet people ignore this and worry about Covid ?

Didn't you hear? Flu has all but disappeared, due to the measures imposed to contain the Covid 19 pandemic so those deaths are also now being saved.

22 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Didn't you hear? Flu has all but disappeared, due to the measures imposed to contain the Covid 19 pandemic so those deaths are also now being saved.

 No, just put down as Covid deaths ,

but still plenty in hospitals with the flu and pneumonia, just nobody talks about them.

if you think that the covid measure has stopped the flu deaths, which occurs every year, looks like a lifetime of lockdowns, masks, etc

6 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

 No, just put down as Covid deaths ,

but still plenty in hospitals with the flu and pneumonia, just nobody talks about them.

if you think that the covid measure has stopped the flu deaths, which occurs every year, looks like a lifetime of lockdowns, masks, etc

Ah no proof then but you're also the one who can't believe it spreads in bars and clubs, says it all really ????

I read somewhere the forces that be in the Travel industry are predicting  2023 !

59 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Didn't you hear? Flu has all but disappeared, due to the measures imposed to contain the Covid 19 pandemic so those deaths are also now being saved.

Wow, we should live like this forever then