36 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Your observation would have more validity if Thailand had about 130,000 deaths.

 

I don't understand what you mean.

Thailand's Vaccine Tracker (July 2, 2021)

 

"About 4.33 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. 7,364,585 (+253,731) people have received the first dose, while 2,862,598 (+45,754) have been fully inoculated. At this rate, Thailand needs to administer 518,926 doses per day within 184 days to reach the herd immunity target by the year's end."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/KhaosodEnglish/posts/4466216143397283

 

21 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

For background, this below was the government's professed vaccine rollout plan -- 10 million doses a month of locally produced AZ vaccine for Thailand from July to November.

 

The white box bottom right tells me it was never any kind of agreed plan with manufacturers, just something they made up by themselves.

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thailand's Vaccine Tracker (July 2, 2021)

 

"About 4.33 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. 7,364,585 (+253,731) people have received the first dose, while 2,862,598 (+45,754) have been fully inoculated. At this rate, Thailand needs to administer 518,926 doses per day within 184 days to reach the herd immunity target by the year's end."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/KhaosodEnglish/posts/4466216143397283

 

That daily figure required was below 500k a week ago, now already up to 520k and climbing.

 

I don’t know about the end of this year, I’m worried whether they will make it by the end of next year. At the current rate, it’s quite a close run thing.

During the English language government news briefing today, spokeswoman Pensom Lertsithichai said Thai doctors are estimating that about 5 percent of all COVID patients will end up experiencing severe respiratory symptoms.

 

At 6,000+ new cases per day, that would translate into 300 new cases each day requiring significant/critical care hospitalization.

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

That daily figure required was below 500k a week ago, now already up to 520k and climbing.

 

Every day since the beginning, except for one day, they've been falling short of the vaccination rate they needed in order to meet their year-end goal. And with each passing day that they continue to fall short, and fewer days remaining, the number of daily doses they need to give for the remainder of the year keeps getting gradually larger.

 

42 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Well, here it is. From Director of National Vaccine Institute: AstraZeneca has informed it will NOT be able to deliver 10 million doses per month to Thailand for July and August. SBS production capacity of AZ is 16 million per month and just 5-6 million doses will go to Thailand.

 

 

https://twitter.com/Thai_Talk/status/1410864969189527556

 

Surely the Junta will just come in and take over the production facility and all will be great just like them taking over the country. 

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

During the English language government news briefing today, spokeswoman Pensom Lertsithichai said Thai doctors are estimating that about 5 percent of all COVID patients will end up experiencing severe respiratory symptoms.

 

At 6,000+ new cases per day, that would translate into 300 new cases each day requiring significant/critical care hospitalization.

So they DO know the scale of the issue they face.

 

why on earth are they faffing about over 249 tourists in Phuket instead of focusing their and public attention on the action needed to stop a not so slow train wreck unfolding in front of their eyes?

45 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Well, here it is. From Director of National Vaccine Institute: AstraZeneca has informed it will NOT be able to deliver 10 million doses per month to Thailand for July and August. SBS production capacity of AZ is 16 million per month and just 5-6 million doses will go to Thailand.

 

 

https://twitter.com/Thai_Talk/status/1410864969189527556

 

No problem. China will come to the rescue with more delta busting Sinocrap. 

15 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thailand's Vaccine Tracker (July 2, 2021)

 

"About 4.33 percent of the population is fully vaccinated. 7,364,585 (+253,731) people have received the first dose, while 2,862,598 (+45,754) have been fully inoculated. At this rate, Thailand needs to administer 518,926 doses per day within 184 days to reach the herd immunity target by the year's end."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/KhaosodEnglish/posts/4466216143397283

 

184 days from now would be January 2, 2022.  They need to be vaccinating at a blistering pace to get there.  I have a feeling they may not even get to 50% by the years end unless they get vaccines onboarded.

In a tweet this afternoon, blogger Richard Barrow summarized a BKK Post report saying "the government said today that existing measures are 'adequate' to battle rising Covid toll".

 

Yet during today's English language news briefing, government spokeswoman Lertsithichai said:

 

"The situation in Thailand continues to be worrying. And therefore, Bangkok continues to be the epicenter of local transmissions where new infections continue to surpass the numbers of recoveries.

 

"And therefore, the CCSA has requested authorities to address this problem immediately by both increasing bed capacities and by adopting new quarantine measures within the problem communities. These will be called community isolation measures. And the Bangkok governor will be discussing the details with the authorities concerned to address this problem, and to fine tune some standard operational procedures."

 

"And also, in an effort to help address the increasing number of patients, the CCSA has asked physicians from all over the country... We have now 144 physicians who are experts in fields of not only general practitioners but also respiratory systems and those who are experts in intensive care. They will come from all over the country to help Bangkok manage and cope with the increasing number of patients. And we welcome this help and support from all of the provinces."

 

Charts and graphics have been removed. This is because the posts did not contain a link to the source of the information.

7 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

My guess was mid late October (Forget that, it will be much later).

If it comes (moderna etc) that will also be bun fight.

The Novavax one looks promising and might be available by then.

 

Ordering now would be the right time to order, before the stampede from every other country once it completes its trials.

 

What happened to the Covid dogs?

I bet those unimaginative beaureaucrats illogically have them at... the Airport!

Where they are least needed, but hey, that's where sniffer dogs go, right?

They should have sniffer dogs being trained as a priority and sent to every mall and ground transportation hub asap. 

Worth noting, the MoPH also had a chart today breaking down the age ranges of the country's COVID deaths since the start of April (despite not giving the specific numbers by age grouping????

 

Of 1,986 deaths during the period, MoPH said 66% (1,322) involved patients age 60 and older (meaning 34% were under age 60), and 81% (1,614) involved patients with chronic medical conditions.

 

From the chart below of the 1,986 total COVID deaths, it looks like more than 800 were people age 70 and up, around 500 were age 60-69, maybe 375 or so were in the 50-59 age group, and just under 200 of the deaths were people ages 40-49. 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/356106356007695

 

40 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

"The situation in Thailand continues to be worrying. And therefore, Bangkok continues to be the epicenter of local transmissions where new infections continue to surpass the numbers of recoveries.

 

"And therefore, the CCSA has requested authorities to address this problem immediately by both increasing bed capacities and by adopting new quarantine measures within the problem communities. These will be called community isolation measures. And the Bangkok governor will be discussing the details with the authorities concerned to address this problem, and to fine tune some standard operational procedures."

 

"And also, in an effort to help address the increasing number of patients, the CCSA has asked physicians from all over the country... We have now 144 physicians who are experts in fields of not only general practitioners but also respiratory systems and those who are experts in intensive care. They will come from all over the country to help Bangkok manage and cope with the increasing number of patients. And we welcome this help and support from all of the provinces."

 

These are all reactive measures though, nothing there at all to help stop the spread, no stricter measures imposed in any area's.

 

The only thing mentioned are these new quarantine measures in problem communities? Difficult to know exactly what he means but sounds like more bubble and seal approaches where they just lock everyone in and then there's no need to test.

20 minutes ago, ukrules said:

The Novavax one looks promising and might be available by then.

 

Ordering now would be the right time to order, before the stampede from every other country once it completes its trials.

 

I mentioned that the other day, it looks like an easy bet to place orders now on Novavax before everyone else. The western countries have enough supplies of the other brands now anyway.

3 hours ago, JimLahey said:

 

Why would you say that?  It's a bit of a myth that Sweden has done so good, just compared to its neighbours they have done really bad.  

 

 

 

Thailand is still doing better than most countries (need to compare per capita), if we believe their numbers, but sadly it looks very bad for Thailand now.  I'm afraid we might see a situation like we had/have in India in some weeks.

 

 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

 

Better to use the weekly trends options on worldometers to get a much more representative view of the current state, rather than using year old data to asses what is happening now.

 

Thailand is currently #17 in cases over the last 7 days  and #25 in deaths over the same period.

 

15 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

These are all reactive measures though, nothing there at all to help stop the spread, no stricter measures imposed in any area's.

 

The only thing mentioned are these new quarantine measures in problem communities? Difficult to know exactly what he means but sounds like more bubble and seal approaches where they just lock everyone in and then there's no need to test.

Hopefully it's not condos in areas that are locked down where expats and such live. That will get ugly if they shut down large blocks of buildings 

18 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The only thing mentioned are these new quarantine measures in problem communities? Difficult to know exactly what he means but sounds like more bubble and seal approaches where they just lock everyone in and then there's no need to test.

 

Ya, I don't know what new restrictions are coming or when for Bangkok. They didn't say in today's EN language version of the COVID update. But something is obviously in the works, probably on a small-scale.

 

But I recited what the spokeswoman said because I had alluded earlier to a general mention that some additional restrictions appeared to be coming for Bangkok. So I wanted to flesh out and document the source for that mention.

 

Prayut's Phuket jaunt and the images from it (maskless and no social distancing at lunch) seems to have poured fuel on the already simmering fire...

 

Five anti-government groups gather Friday to seek Thai PM’s resignation

 

"Five anti-government groups are holding rallies today, at Government House and other sites in Bangkok, to seek Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s resignation, despite a ban on gatherings of 20 people or more in the capital.

 

The Thai People group, led by Nititorn Lumlua, is gathering at 3pm at Uruphong Intersection, before marching to Government House. The Thai Mai Thon (Impatient Thais) group is to meet at Pan Fah Intersection at 4pm, before marching to Government House, and a group, led by Sombat Boonngamanong, is to rally by car from the Democracy Monument to Government House from 5pm.

 

The Thammasat and Ratsadon groups are also gathering at Uruphong Intersection at 4pm, before marching to Government House."

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/five-anti-government-groups-gather-friday-to-seek-thai-pms-resignation/

 

Calls for Prayut to resign trends online, again

 

"The hashtag #ประยุทธ์ออกไป (Get out, Prayut) trended on Friday after footage emerged of the prime minister in the resort island of Phuket to open a government program despite mounting covid numbers and record breaking death tolls.

 

The hashtag has been trending consistently on Thai social media, as citizens nationwide demand the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha and his government after their handling of the coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen.

 

A clip of Prayut and his ministers, most of them without a mask, dining and relaxing by the sea went viral prompting the online criticisms. Several ministers have come out to defend the government’s action since the barrage of criticisms began."

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29334/calls-for-prayut-to-resign-trends-online-again/

 

The natives are getting restless...

For all the Sinovac vaccine fans out there:

 

The Nation says 11 million doses thus far from China and counting.  Last chart I saw shows that Sinovac doses have far outnumbered the local AstraZeneca doses given thus far in Thailand.

 

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40002770

 

 

The chart below shows first shot and second shot doses given by brand through June 28:

43 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I mentioned that the other day, it looks like an easy bet to place orders now on Novavax before everyone else. The western countries have enough supplies of the other brands now anyway.

 

For some time now I have been wondering if the government is pinning its hopes on the “Mahidol” HXP-GPOVac vaccine.  I also suspect they are not being completely open regarding its development, thereby attracting a lot of cynical comments.

This article from the New York Times in April tells of a new vaccine called NDV-HXP-S which is being trialed in Thailand amongst other countries. 

It sounds promising albeit rather late on parade.

 

Researchers Are Hatching a Low-Cost Coronavirus Vaccine

A new formulation entering clinical trials in Brazil, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam could change how the world fights the pandemic.

A new vaccine for Covid-19 that is entering clinical trials in Brazil, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam could change how the world fights the pandemic.  The vaccine, called NDV-HXP-S, is the first in clinical trials to use a new molecular design that is widely expected to create more potent antibodies than the current generation of vaccines. And the new vaccine could be far easier to make.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/health/hexapro-mclellan-vaccine.html

 

25 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Prayut's Phuket jaunt and the images from it (maskless and no social distancing at lunch) seems to have poured fuel on the already simmering fire...

 

Five anti-government groups gather Friday to seek Thai PM’s resignation

 

"Five anti-government groups are holding rallies today, at Government House and other sites in Bangkok, to seek Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s resignation, despite a ban on gatherings of 20 people or more in the capital.

 

The Thai People group, led by Nititorn Lumlua, is gathering at 3pm at Uruphong Intersection, before marching to Government House. The Thai Mai Thon (Impatient Thais) group is to meet at Pan Fah Intersection at 4pm, before marching to Government House, and a group, led by Sombat Boonngamanong, is to rally by car from the Democracy Monument to Government House from 5pm.

 

The Thammasat and Ratsadon groups are also gathering at Uruphong Intersection at 4pm, before marching to Government House."

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/five-anti-government-groups-gather-friday-to-seek-thai-pms-resignation/

 

Calls for Prayut to resign trends online, again

 

"The hashtag #ประยุทธ์ออกไป (Get out, Prayut) trended on Friday after footage emerged of the prime minister in the resort island of Phuket to open a government program despite mounting covid numbers and record breaking death tolls.

 

The hashtag has been trending consistently on Thai social media, as citizens nationwide demand the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha and his government after their handling of the coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen.

 

A clip of Prayut and his ministers, most of them without a mask, dining and relaxing by the sea went viral prompting the online criticisms. Several ministers have come out to defend the government’s action since the barrage of criticisms began."

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29334/calls-for-prayut-to-resign-trends-online-again/

 

The natives are getting restless...

Yes the natives are. Mismanagement is rife and the inability to manage the pandemic needs to be put into competent hands.

Thong lor

Immunologist infected after 2 doses of Sinovac urges other brands for medics

 

On Friday, immunologist Dr Prapaporn Pisitkun explained on Facebook that she caught Covid-19 from a positive case despite having already receiving two Chinese-made Sinovac jabs.

...

She said more doses of Covid-19 vaccine should be procured to boost the immunity of medics, and the vaccines should be mRNA brands such as Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.

 

“Sinovac vaccine can protect us from severe illness and death. If there is no better choice, the Chinese vaccine is okay. However, people jabbed with Sinovac can still be infected and spread Covid-19 to others, which means the outbreak will not end and everyone will contract the virus,” she said.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40002766

 

To be fair and for the record, AFAIK, it's never been promised that the Sinovac vaccine or others will prevent someone from contracting COVID... 

 

What they're mainly supposed to do is prevent the vaccinated person from having symptoms and requiring hospitalization or dying.

Couple of quotes from this latest article, looks like 10,000 a day new infections is ok according to Prayut:

 

COVID-19 in Thailand expected to worsen next week, CCSA says

Gen. Nattaphon Narkphanich, secretary-general of the National Security Council (NSC) and director of the operations centre of the CCSA, said today (Friday) that the CCSA predicts an increase in the rate of new COVID-19 infections next week, so vaccinations must be accelerated.

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is already concerned about the impacts of the existing measures.

He is optimistic that the situation is under control, even if new daily infections reach 10,000, while emphasizing that the government has increased hospital beds, in both general and field hospitals and in “hospitels”, and has introduced a home isolation program for asymptomatic cases.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/covid-19-in-thailand-expected-to-worsen-next-week-ccsa-says/

Breaking news on Channel 3 indicates the contract with Moderna was signed today and Anutin promises it will be here soon 4th qtr this year and 1st qtr next year..... not soon enough I fear.

Never saw this one coming.... ????

 

The Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) reports that the exodus of workers from sealed construction sites in Bangkok has led to an increase in COVID-19 infections in 32 provinces, mostly in the Northeast.

 

CCSA assistant spokeswoman, Dr. Apisamai Srirangsan, said on Thursday that 129 people arriving from Greater Bangkok had tested positive for the novel coronavirus this week.

 

By far the largest number was in the Northeast, where 84 infections were reported in 12 provinces among people arriving from the capital. Twenty-three cases were found in 9 central provinces and there were 20 cases among people arriving in 6 Northern provinces. Two others went to Phuket in the South.

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10158117860977050

 

Getting harder and harder to find a province in Thailand without daily COVID cases. Down to just 3 provinces with no new cases as of today's report (the dark green sections in the graph below):

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/356106356007695

 

PS - If the construction sites were "sealed" then how could there have been an exodus of those workers... Oh ya, "sealed" after many had already scattered.... 

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Couple of quotes from this latest article, looks like 10,000 a day new infections is ok according to Prayut:

 

COVID-19 in Thailand expected to worsen next week, CCSA says

Gen. Nattaphon Narkphanich, secretary-general of the National Security Council (NSC) and director of the operations centre of the CCSA, said today (Friday) that the CCSA predicts an increase in the rate of new COVID-19 infections next week, so vaccinations must be accelerated.

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is already concerned about the impacts of the existing measures.

He is optimistic that the situation is under control, even if new daily infections reach 10,000, while emphasizing that the government has increased hospital beds, in both general and field hospitals and in “hospitels”, and has introduced a home isolation program for asymptomatic cases.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/covid-19-in-thailand-expected-to-worsen-next-week-ccsa-says/

Idiot. That's his Forte downplaying any severity of this and saying it's under control.  Definitely not under control.