Financial crisis to silent crisis: 24 years after the baht’s freefall

[kynikoi]

7 hours ago, smedly said:

what stands out in that report is the level of public debt and the admission that they don't meet international standards when reporting it, in layman speak that means to me that they are hiding stuff. 

 

 

He pointed out, for instance, that reporting of public debt in Thailand does not fully meet international standards, resulting in figures lower than the reality.

 

 

another issue that stands out is this, they should be investing at home

 

The biggest problem is a drop in investment relative to savings. Before the crisis, Thailand was a debtor country due to low savings, but relatively high investment. Now, Thailand has less investment but larger savings, much of which it exports abroad.

 

I've stated in many times. How can dozens of developers hold hundreds of condo blocks empty and half built allegedly worth 1.1B each for years?

 

I suspect *the big guy* is backing loans and has placed the whole thing in a sort of suspended animation. Interest and even payments frozen. Plutocracy, oligarchy, oligopoly, monopolies, autocracy all backhanding one another.

[sanuk711]

14 hours ago, rumak said:

well,  what do you think ?    just your opinion, of course.    Will the baht take a slow, steady path downward.      a quick drop like in 1997.     or just basically keep in the range its been for the last ten years.

you can even give your reasons  ,   if ya like

 

FYI:   I have had my money parked here for 22 years

Hi rumak--I think the Baht will take a bit of a bashing, it will drop -but not a great deal against most other major currencies---Against the GBP is harder to forecast because thats really about how much it (GBP) will rise (or fall)  against all other currencies in the next few years with their new trading deals.

 

Will there be another "Tom Yum Kung crisis",  --Today we are in a world crisis, not a S.E. Asia Crises like 1997 . When I read most of the "Yes Thailand's is doomed" posts on here - reminds me of the old  Dusty Springfield song-- "Wishing' and hoping' --and thinking' --and praying'   Planning'---and dreaming' each night after night".....etc

 

I understand people here would like (hope) to see the Baht crash--My money comes from Oz, so I would like to make more on the exchange rate, but wishing and hopping isn't going to make it happen.

 

As you say just my opinion, of course........

 

***As I am more focused on the Oz $ take a look at the long term forecast (one the hardest to predict) I am up 3 Baht next year...... and slowly go down from there.

https://audtoday.com/aud-to-thb-forecast

[rumak]

33 minutes ago, sanuk711 said:

 

I understand people here would like (hope) to see the Baht crash

 

As usual,  i am not in the "most people " category   ????

 

I am hoping to close on a real estate sale which had a rather long (6 months) time period to close.

I  would HOPE that the baht holds up till i get my money and can get a lot of it out  .

 

the world currency situation i have commented on before.  my take is " how the hell do these countries get away with printing trillions and not have it negatively affect the exchange rate ?"

Very good trick if you can get away with it.   But only the big boys can.

 ????   

[Dogmatix]

Not only did the Bank of Thailand keep saying that the baht would never be devalued but they lied repeatedly about the foreign exchange reserves, refusing to disclose the forward positions. I went to the Bank of Thailand briefings and witnessed them refusing to disclose the forward positions but assuring everyone that they would not make any difference to the disclosed spot positions of around US$30 billion net.  Eventually it turned out that the lying bastards had depleted all the foreign reserves in the forward market and the house of cards collapsed.  

 

The normal practice of government officials lying to people didn't work when faced with the cold economic reality. 

[CharlieH]

Off topic removed.

[candide]

23 hours ago, kynikoi said:

 

It just sits alone in the corner. Unwanted, unloved and untraded. Thai baht has never been considered even major currency within East Asia.

 

The Bloomberg tripe is pure hopium. The economy is in the toilet and it's not coming back. Thailand definitely has reserves that's the real reason it remains strong. But as western currencies inflate and Thai government is forced to borrow...Thai consumer is done.

 

Thai billionaire sending money out of Thailand. Think it was over 17B last year

Surprisingly enough, foreign exchange reserves have remained stable despite the strong decrease of tourism due to covid-19.

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

 

[BritManToo]

15 hours ago, candide said:

Surprisingly enough, foreign exchange reserves have remained stable despite the strong decrease of tourism due to covid-19.

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

 

Only if you believe what the Thai government and Thai banks say.

Most of us aren't that credulous!

[mikebell]

So my 800,000 is shrinking as I write?

[Enzian]

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

So my 800,000 is shrinking as I write?

Of course, but it's anybody's guess how far it will go or how long it will take to come back. My Immigration money is in a US$ account, which was just luck and overcaution-I didn't foresee this. And the $ is pretty ugly also; the Euro is better.

When Covid hit the SET index fell by a third, and I knew I should have put money in the dedicated ETF that tracks it, but I had enough to think about, and not a lot of free cash, so didn't. Sure enough, the SET is back where it was. In a couple of years the baht may do the same. 

[roobaa01]

Looking at the sick european Union Policy and ecb Euro ones i feel pretty Safe with my baht and nzd $ Investment. 

 

MsG

Peter1

[connda]

On 7/2/2021 at 6:41 PM, Pottinger said:

I remember it well. I lost my job as the financial sector collapsed and consolidated, sending me spinning off first to South Korea then to Vietnam. It seemed at the time that the currency devaluations were following me around Asia

George Soros was following you around Asia.

[Andycoops]

There are conflicting opinions on Thailand in almost all financial media lately.

Time will tell who was right.

[Metapod]

would love to see the thb lose some ground to the usd.

 

35thb to 1usd would be lovely, or even 40.

[Harsh Jones]

On 7/2/2021 at 5:08 AM, kynikoi said:

Was good times for me but I remember middle class families selling bbq on the street. They were rather disconsolate.

 

No idea how or why the baht is where it is except no one really wants it so it doesn't move. Bring in Soros and Thailand is done.

Thailand was a dual debtor leading up to 1997. Its a dual creditor now with a solid trade surplus and lots of FX reserves in the bank. And a good debt/GDP. The Baht is going to appreciate more.