Thai economy no longer a subject of global interest, new report says

[Tanomazu]

9 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

If you ran a multinational company and needed to expand into SE Asia, would you locate in a country with strong ties to China?  Or would you locate in a country who competes with China?

You've touched on one of the main considerations.

 

KPMG back in 2019 considered Vietnam a top choice, because of its proximity to China.

 

Thailand and Malaysia were seen as the overpriced and expensive options.

 

https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/vn/pdf/publication/2019/South East Asia Manufacturing.pdf

[John Drake]

8 hours ago, Fromas said:

Economies are rebalancing and not all news is bad. Rubber exports have gone up, for instance.

That's only a bounce.

[IamNoone88]

Digital Nomads will save the country!

[Walker88]

There's a number of factors at play that do not bode well for Thailand's economy.

 

In no particular order....

 

-There is virtually no confidence in the current govt among Western investors; Chinese maybe, but not Western

-Covid disrupted many supply chains, prompting many manufacturers to either think about vertically integrating or finding suppliers closer to home

-Thai GDP has been heavily debt driven since around 2011, as corporate debt growth has been well more than double Thai GDP

-Thai Household Debt is hitting new highs at a time when UE is surging due to Covid

-Thai banks are being allowed to mask NPL issues via debt moratoriums

-Vietnam is the new flavor of the month

-The world is awash in capacity

-The 18.8% of Thai GDP that was Tourism is a shell of its former self

 

While not all of those prompt a facilities manager or investor group to turn away from Thailand, the combined effect will have folks looking for better lands.

[herfiehandbag]

8 hours ago, JonnyF said:

A lot of the investment here was made during the Thaksin years when Thailand was a great place to invest.

 

Since 2014, money was bound to stop coming, and even start leaving (gradually). Foreign companies don't tend to like unstable, illegal, corrupt regimes run by Generals where laws can change at the drop of a hat and permits, licences etc. involve kickbacks. 

Certainly, precious metal (gold) mining, and dare I say it, regional pharmaceutical manufacturing hubs, are two areas in which it may well prove difficult to attract foreign investment!

[impulse]

9 hours ago, ArcticFox said:

That AstraZenaca debacle was a wake-up call."

The bigger wake up calls were Airbus, Rolls Royce, and now Toyota.  Some places, it's almost impossible to do business without violating FCPA.  And that's gotten too expensive.  Even for vaccine companies.

 

[spermwhale]

15 hours ago, Fromas said:

Economies are rebalancing and not all news is bad. Rubber exports have gone up, for instance.

Rubber exports cannot make up for vehicle or hard appliance exports. That won't carry the day. That' a third world export 

[Bundooman]

18 hours ago, Denim said:

So they have bounced back ?

Not quite, haha, the purchase of condoms will have dropped dramatically since Covid.                                                                                                                                          Tourists are no longer here to buy them and by all accounts, Thais don't use them anyway!

Rubber balls keep bouncing back, though!

[wasabi]

As a tourist destination Thailand was an exotic and carefree place. Now it is a labyrinth of documents and checkpoints to even step off the plane and that is only the beginning of your stay here. 

Thailand cannot compete in any other industry due to corruption and lack of skilled populace.

Every problem they have is entirely self inflicted. They aspire to be the hub of hubs when they cannot even properly affix a single spoke in the wheel.

Thailand decided to make to focus on Chinese and Indian tourists making it hard for Farang to show up even though they claim to want well-heeled tourists. They tried to clean up various places tourists loved for being free and pure wanting to be the next Singapore with none of the infrastructure and quality of Singapore thus they are left with mediocrity.

Thailand was a magnet for Digital nomads but they did nothing other than make a ludicrous Smart Visa to attract these people and disseminate their knowledge among the locals.

 

There's still a lot I like about Thailand but I have family ties there if not there are many other choices without the problems.

[mikebell]

Thailand should get used to its worldwide reputation; it is a tin-pot military dictatorship riddled with corruption; it only ever existed as a holiday resort.  Now that has gone there is little left thanks partly to a rubbish education system which has dumbed down its workforce which was never energetic in the first place.

[retsdon]

Thailand is a classic example of the middle income trap at work.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap

 

[Tanomazu]

6 hours ago, wasabi said:

As a tourist destination Thailand was an exotic and carefree place. Now it is a labyrinth of documents and checkpoints to even step off the plane and that is only the beginning of your stay here. 

Thailand cannot compete in any other industry due to corruption and lack of skilled populace.

Every problem they have is entirely self inflicted. They aspire to be the hub of hubs when they cannot even properly affix a single spoke in the wheel.

Thailand decided to make to focus on Chinese and Indian tourists making it hard for Farang to show up even though they claim to want well-heeled tourists. They tried to clean up various places tourists loved for being free and pure wanting to be the next Singapore with none of the infrastructure and quality of Singapore thus they are left with mediocrity.

Thailand was a magnet for Digital nomads but they did nothing other than make a ludicrous Smart Visa to attract these people and disseminate their knowledge among the locals.

 

There's still a lot I like about Thailand but I have family ties there if not there are many other choices without the problems.

A bit harsh. None of the quality of Singapore? I thought the shopping malls in Bangkok compared very well to Singapore. A little better in fact.

[GinBoy2]

1 hour ago, Tanomazu said:

A bit harsh. None of the quality of Singapore? I thought the shopping malls in Bangkok compared very well to Singapore. A little better in fact.

Malls are malls.

A Louis Vuitton store in any country will look the same.

 

But walking between malls. the contrast between a stroll down Orchard Road and Sukhumvit couldn't be starker

 

I've lived in both Singapore and Thailand and the harsh truth is that while Singapore is a first world country, with first country infrastructure, Thailand is at best in Bangkok a second world country, which rapidly descends to third world infrastructure out in the sticks

Edited July 21, 2021 by GinBoy2

[Tanomazu]

38 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

Malls are malls.

A Louis Vuitton store in any country will look the same.

 

But walking between malls. the contrast between a stroll down Orchard Road and Sukhumvit couldn't be starker

 

I've lived in both Singapore and Thailand and the harsh truth is that while Singapore is a first world country, with first country infrastructure, Thailand is at best in Bangkok a second world country, which rapidly descends to third world infrastructure out in the sticks

Actually LV stores don't look the same in any country, and malls certainly do not. I still think the Bangkok Malls are a cut above what Singapore offers.

 

Sure, you "feel" higher quality on Orchard Road, and it is in many infrastructure aspects. But in some aspects, eg shopping malls, Bangkok is just better.

 

Plus in Singapore you can't own a car or buy property unless you're willing to pay outrageous amounts for the privelege.

 

I don't feel Thailand is that third world or second world, as I stick to the cities. Quite the contrary, the ease of Bank app paying, proliferation of new vehicles, world class shopping malls, it's quite advanced really. I see what you're saying about the provinces, and of course there is grinding poverty because it is a real country, unlike Singapore, but I think it compares well to the island city state.

[GinBoy2]

30 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

Actually LV stores don't look the same in any country, and malls certainly do not. I still think the Bangkok Malls are a cut above what Singapore offers.

 

Sure, you "feel" higher quality on Orchard Road, and it is in many infrastructure aspects. But in some aspects, eg shopping malls, Bangkok is just better.

 

Plus in Singapore you can't own a car or buy property unless you're willing to pay outrageous amounts for the privelege.

 

I don't feel Thailand is that third world or second world, as I stick to the cities. Quite the contrary, the ease of Bank app paying, proliferation of new vehicles, world class shopping malls, it's quite advanced really. I see what you're saying about the provinces, and of course there is grinding poverty because it is a real country, unlike Singapore, but I think it compares well to the island city state.

We may have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

When we were living in Singapore, my Thai wife vehemently didn't want to move back to Thailand, she would have preferred we moved directly to the US.

 

But I got my own way and we moved to Thailand.

 

Granted, vehicle ownership in Singapore is crazy expensive, you really don't need a car since the transit infrastructure is so good it makes no sense to drive.

 

As for property, as expensive as it is you can, and we did own property .

 

...and btw the power stayed on every day, when the daily clap of thunder and downpour ensued, 

[Tanomazu]

6 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

We may have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

When we were living in Singapore, my Thai wife vehemently didn't want to move back to Thailand, she would have preferred we moved directly to the US.

 

But I got my own way and we moved to Thailand.

 

Granted, vehicle ownership in Singapore is crazy expensive, you really don't need a car since the transit infrastructure is so good it makes no sense to drive.

 

As for property, as expensive as it is you can, and we did own property .

 

...and btw the power stayed on every day, when the daily clap of thunder and downpour ensued, 

I can well believe it, it's a common theme for South East Asian gals, they always want to move away. It's normal I guess, grass is always greener, why else would we be in Thailand.

 

With all due respect to your wife though, I think you made the right choice.

 

In terms of transit infrastructure you do not need a car in Bangkok, the MRT is just as good as the MRT in SG.

 

As for ownership, you can own condos and apartments in SG, but to own land, a house with land, you need govt approval in SG and you have to buy a property in excess of 20 million USD as one of the conditions. In Thailand you just set up a company to buy a house with land at a very good price.

 

You do have a point about power cuts, never had one in Singapore, and in Thailand very regularly. Still, a lot better than Phil or Indonesia. It's a not a huge issue in Thailand I find, in the big cities, depending where in the city you are.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Singapore as well, but I find it very limited and overpriced. Thailand seems a lot more interesting, and not much worse in most infrastructure, cuisine. A clear winner on the massage front as well.