TAT chief says October reopening plan for ten provinces will need to be reassessed in light of pandemic

[joebrown]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Here is an interesting article on how over reliant Thailand is on tourism and its effects with Civid as a multiplier now dropping the Thai Baht lower.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/asian-currencies-thailand-covid-lack-of-tourism-hit-thai-baht.html

 

So what now since Thailand has had only 34k visitors according to the article up until May of 2021. The 10k Sandbox visitors surely can not be helping either. So under 100k for the year is my best quess at this rate.

I read the CNBC article and have to question the 11% GDP figure given for Thai tourism. The figure ties in with what the Thai gov't say, but it's impossible to factor - in the 'black economy' to arrive at a true figure for loss of GDP.

The last time I checked about a year ago, only about 30% of Thais over working age were registered for paying Income Tax. The rest, the 'black economy', including those working in tourist reliant jobs, simply do not exist.

[sandyf]

13 hours ago, Pinot said:

These are career liars with a long rich history of just making <deleted> up. They really need to stop talking? 

And what history would that be?, certainly not the one that has shown an ability to survive a crisis.

Of course you are perfectly free to believe there was no recovery from the financial crash or the tsunami.

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, sandyf said:

And what history would that be?, certainly not the one that has shown an ability to survive a crisis.

Of course you are perfectly free to believe there was no recovery from the financial crash or the tsunami.

However, had this current Government been in power during both of those crises then I would bet that it would have also been a shambles.

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, joebrown said:

I read the CNBC article and have to question the 11% GDP figure given for Thai tourism. The figure ties in with what the Thai gov't say, but it's impossible to factor - in the 'black economy' to arrive at a true figure for loss of GDP.

The last time I checked about a year ago, only about 30% of Thais over working age were registered for paying Income Tax. The rest, the 'black economy', including those working in tourist reliant jobs, simply do not exist.

Ergo why the Covid multiplier has put the Baht and economy as far as imports and exports at task.  Infected factories, slow production, and then increased costs are causing an issue.  I have noticed in the last month prices climbing on all food stuffs that are imported as well as the locally produced goods.  Sure it is only a few baht more, but when budgets are already strained and people short on funds I see inflation rising.  I do not see this getting better anytime soon.  If for some reason the baht starts to regain footing one would have to wonder why.  As the article does point out the reserves held are one of the reasons the baht is where it is, without those reserves my god could you just imagine how far the baht would fall.

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Ergo why the Covid multiplier has put the Baht and economy as far as imports and exports at task.  Infected factories, slow production, and then increased costs are causing an issue.  I have noticed in the last month prices climbing on all food stuffs that are imported as well as the locally produced goods.  Sure it is only a few baht more, but when budgets are already strained and people short on funds I see inflation rising.  I do not see this getting better anytime soon.  If for some reason the baht starts to regain footing one would have to wonder why.  As the article does point out the reserves held are one of the reasons the baht is where it is, without those reserves my god could you just imagine how far the baht would fall.

And if the Thai govt doesn't start borrowing money to help its stricken population, can you imagine just how much further its people will fall?

[Henryford]

They just cancelled the MotoGP races in Buriram scheduled for the 17th October. So much for reopening.

[Pattaya Spotter]

15 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Tell that to the people without jobs due to the close down of the tourist sector. Tell that to those now sleeping on the streets or in buildings abandoned as the businesses that once occupied them no longer function. Tell that to those who know people that have taken a jump off high buildings as they no longer had any way to feed themselves.

I didn't say international tourism isn't important...but that Thailand itself is in no danger of economic or social collapse from their temporary absence (as some almost seem to be rooting for). Elsewhere I have said hopefully tourism will return to "normal" in 3-5 years.

[Bangkok Barry]

4 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I didn't say international tourism isn't important...but that Thailand itself is in no danger of economic or social collapse from their temporary absence (as some almost seem to be rooting for). Elsewhere I have said hopefully tourism will return to "normal" in 3-5 years.

Today's headline:
The Thai baht, once the strongest-performing currency in Asia before the pandemic, has been steadily falling in 2021 and is this year’s worst-hit currency in the region, according to Mizuho Bank.

 

[sandyf]

23 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

However, had this current Government been in power during both of those crises then I would bet that it would have also been a shambles.

Fair point, Trump proved how one individual can take away all credibility very rapidly.

Of course you will bring in the military background, wasn't George Washington a general?

People that can't accept that other nations do things differently to their own shouldn't be here.

[gk10012001]

16 minutes ago, Henryford said:

They just cancelled the MotoGP races in Buriram scheduled for the 17th October. So much for reopening.

How about the Chonburi Buffalo races around that time in October?  They are a hoot and I recommend them at least once if you have the time

[ThailandRyan]

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And if the Thai govt doesn't start borrowing money to help its stricken population, can you imagine just how much further its people will fall?

Exactly, and at this point in time there is no middle ground, they have failed the people miserably, all except those of their friends.

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Fair point, Trump proved how one individual can take away all credibility very rapidly.

Of course you will bring in the military background, wasn't George Washington a general?

People that can't accept that other nations do things differently to their own shouldn't be here.

I believe Washington was a surveyor prior to his becoming a military man, I wonder what Prayuts real world experience was

[sandyf]

17 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I didn't say international tourism isn't important...but that Thailand itself is in no danger of economic or social collapse from their temporary absence (as some almost seem to be rooting for). Elsewhere I have said hopefully tourism will return to "normal" in 3-5 years.

I would agree in principal but one would hope that they have learned that for tourism to be "normally" about 20% of GDP is not a good thing.

Ideally the numbers should recover but represent a much lower percentage of GDP, what was "normal" should not be seen again.

[Blumpie]

2 minutes ago, sandyf said:

I would agree in principal but one would hope that they have learned that for tourism to be "normally" about 20% of GDP is not a good thing.

Ideally the numbers should recover but represent a much lower percentage of GDP, what was "normal" should not be seen again.

I hear you.  

An economy that reliant on tourism is unhealthy.  And no it isn't coming back anytime soon.  Their #1 tourist, the Chinese are not coming back for a long long long time.  

[ThailandRyan]

28 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I didn't say international tourism isn't important...but that Thailand itself is in no danger of economic or social collapse from their temporary absence (as some almost seem to be rooting for). Elsewhere I have said hopefully tourism will return to "normal" in 3-5 years.

I do not see people rooting for its collapse, rather I see the reality of the country being stuck in a deep dark depressed state for a few years thanks to the current mismanagement and mishandling of the current situation which the PM blames on the people after he claims to have done a stellar job last year.  Sounds like a big ego is in need of a big deflation.  He sure let the country down and led them down a windy road which appears to have ended in a briar patch.  Just my view however, and I could be wrong, in fact If I am wrong you will see me apologize as I have before.

[Pracha Duang]

On 7/26/2021 at 11:03 AM, Karma80 said:

Oh please. Look at the sandbox. I'd be more worried about being an international traveller coming here and getting covid.

The only people worried about covid are old and uneducated people. My buddies in the US have been traveling all over the world since last August. They were in Brazil , Argentina, then went back to NYC, then Ukraine, Turkey, and now in Paris, France. They desperately want to come to Thailand, especially now that everything is half off. All my friends want to come and buy property. Like for example, I scooped up a 650 sqm pad in Layan that has an ocean view and 1 min walk from beach for $600k. Last year, this was going for $2.5 milly. I think you’d be surprised by all the people that would love to come to Thailand just to buy the real estate dip. The only thing holding them back is the absolutely ridiculous quarantine rules. They’re not even remotely afraid of covid and only got the vaccine because they had no choice for travel. They didn’t have the vaccine when in South America and when they entered back into the US, US dgaf lmao ???? 

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Today's headline:
The Thai baht, once the strongest-performing currency in Asia before the pandemic, has been steadily falling in 2021 and is this year’s worst-hit currency in the region, according to Mizuho Bank.

 

I'd imagine most currencies in SE Asia, which are being hard hit with covid right now, are similarly impacted...so it makes imported Danish butter more expensive than it already is, which has little affect on ordinary Thais. You might have heard about the 1997 "Tum Yum Kung" crisis, where the baht lost half its value...within a decade, expats were whining about how strong the baht had become.

[Harveyboy]

 

He said this included the possibility of foreigners bringing in more infection  yep those filthy foreigners..as if we've never been told eh

[AnotherFarang8]

1 hour ago, Pracha Duang said:

The only people worried about covid are old and uneducated people. My buddies in the US have been traveling all over the world since last August. They were in Brazil , Argentina, then went back to NYC, then Ukraine, Turkey, and now in Paris, France. They desperately want to come to Thailand, especially now that everything is half off. All my friends want to come and buy property. Like for example, I scooped up a 650 sqm pad in Layan that has an ocean view and 1 min walk from beach for $600k. Last year, this was going for $2.5 milly. I think you’d be surprised by all the people that would love to come to Thailand just to buy the real estate dip. The only thing holding them back is the absolutely ridiculous quarantine rules. They’re not even remotely afraid of covid and only got the vaccine because they had no choice for travel. They didn’t have the vaccine when in South America and when they entered back into the US, US dgaf lmao ???? 

Pretty much. I look at it as a world wide IQ test to separate the uneducated folks, easily scared into submission with all the half-truths and lies fed to them by tv.

 

Ridiculous quarantine rules are the only thing that holds back people who don’t fall for bs, from traveling back to Thailand.

 

I will cut some slack for older sick people. They shouldn’t be traveling anyway.

Edited July 27, 2021 by AnotherFarang8

[Rimmer]

A not very nice troll post has been removed

[Pinot]

11 minutes ago, DjSilver said:

Not really, if Thailand had done like Sweden it would have been much better. No restrictions, only recommendations. No forced face masks, restaurants open, malls open, gyms open. Great life. 

 

But now Thailand needs to get 7 million with covid, 100k dead, and more than 220k new cases every day. They could have done thisong time ago. And in the long run, I think it will also be better for the Thai economy when kids don't have to take care or elderly people ????

Wrong! Swedens Covid policy is generally seen as a failure. 

 

Sweden’s failed COVID strategy leaves the country deeply divided

[joecoolfrog]

On 7/26/2021 at 6:17 AM, Pattaya Spotter said:

There are already other baskets. Thailand is a major assembly point for computer components and small appliances (air-cons) as well as automobiles. It is also has significant aquaculture and agriculture growing and processing/export sectors. The Thai ship of state isn't in any danger of foundering because of limited foreign tourist arrivals (much to the chagrin of some).

If the Thai state is not struggling badly , why is it not supporting the individuals and small businesses badly affected by the huge tourism downturn.?

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

If the Thai state is not struggling badly , why is it not supporting the individuals and small businesses badly affected by the huge tourism downturn.?

Because they don't care to assist those on the bottom rung unfortunately.

[placeholder]

7 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I'd imagine most currencies in SE Asia, which are being hard hit with covid right now, are similarly impacted...so it makes imported Danish butter more expensive than it already is, which has little affect on ordinary Thais. You might have heard about the 1997 "Tum Yum Kung" crisis, where the baht lost half its value...within a decade, expats were whining about how strong the baht had become.

Actually, compared to a year ago, the dollar is about the same vs the Malaysian ringgit and actually lower vs the Cambodian Riel,the Singapore Dollar, and the Indonesian Rupiah. It is strongly up vs. the Laos kip.

I don't check how  the Euro is doing vs these currencies.

[Pattaya Spotter]

14 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

If the Thai state is not struggling badly , why is it not supporting the individuals and small businesses badly affected by the huge tourism downturn.?

Middle income countries like Thailand don't have the resources to wantonly spend money subsidizing entire business sectors, private companies, and individuals affected by economic losses from the pandemic. This is hardly an indication the country is struggling any more than others with respect to Covid-19. 

[DjSilver]

On 7/27/2021 at 9:10 AM, Pinot said:

Wrong! Swedens Covid policy is generally seen as a failure. 

 

Sweden’s failed COVID strategy leaves the country deeply divided

No, not really, it was the best strategy and I am proud how And what Sweden has done. Especially no lockdown and mostly recommendations. Good that restaurants, malls, public transportation and gyms have been open every day

 

Those who lock down have failed, like Thailand. It would have been better if no lock down.

[Billybaroo]

On 7/26/2021 at 3:37 PM, kimamey said:

Which is more than you need if you're coming from inside the country so that suggests that maybe foreigners aren't the problem.

 Precisely. If I travel to Thailand, I will be double dosed with Pfizer, passed a 72 hour COVID PCR test, have insurance, and get re-tested in Thailand. Why I would need to quarantine for 14 days defies science.