Baht could sink even further, analyst warns

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33 minutes ago, tonray said:

It could be further along the way...but the Federal Reserve Bank is still stubbornly clinging to near zero interest rates in spite of inflationary evidence. I fear they do not know any other way than zero % at this point. 

That only makes sense if the problem is that too many dollars are chasing too few goods. But the fact is that the current inflation is more a matter of bottlenecks. For example, because of chip shortages, not enough cars are being made to satisfy demand. So the prices have gone up.

[utalkin2me]

80 baht per 1 usd

[cyril sneer]

does this mean more expensive wine?

[kiwikeith]

2 hours ago, ezzra said:

Yeah just my luck to be holding a cr*p loads of them in the bank right now...

  Maybe,sell some now as it will probably go another 3 /4 Bhat to he USD. 

 

[redwood1]

7 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

80 baht per 1 usd

Don't laugh......A trend in motion, tends to stay in motion.......I make no predictions on numbers......But major trend changes very often go much lower or much higher than anyone expects......

Edited August 5, 2021 by redwood1

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

you mean 47

It was at 51.7 in late May 2016, and 46.8 a month later.....Brexit vote was 23rd June 2016. Not been near 50 since.....

Edited August 5, 2021 by jacko45k

[drenddy]

1 hour ago, itsari said:

Thailand's currency wilts as covid wreaks havoc on tourism . 

Headline from the financial times yesterday .

Worth reading as it gives far more detail than the Thai Inquirer.

Balance of payments shock was one subject raised

 They say in the article, Thailand cannot expect a ressemblance of normal tourism until the second half of next year...

[mfd101]

44 minutes ago, redwood1 said:

As long as America is the world's policeman the dollar will not collapse....

Policeman's not looking too healthy these days.

[Chris Lawrence]

Ah, 32 or 33 baht to the Australian $ in 2005/6. We bought a new car then.

[nickmondo]

3 hours ago, lodstewart said:

50Bt to the pound sterling would be so good then 55Bt ,  back to before brexit great news for all the Brit pensioners

i think you will find this to be the case by the end of the year.....50

 

[ThailandRyan]

Waiting to send my Second half of the year transfer from the US as the USD to THB goes further past the $1 USD to 33.12 THB

[mikecha]

50 minutes ago, redwood1 said:

I think the Thai banks have been carrying bad loans for a very loooong time....One day a spectacular day of reckoning will come...

They loose all  or the whole family has to pay this back  later 

put on the street  take the car   ruthless these days 

 

our first  day 1 policy here  no dept  no money lending No financing    just pay cash  or transfer  within your means 

 

then never loose anything  

 

 

 but  Thai  people like dept  show new car

show

new this that  never understand this 

 

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 hour ago, Chosenfew said:

What happens to banks when many Thai’s cannot pay their mortgage and car payments?

This is happening already. 

 

Banks have been ordered by the government not to repossess on defaulted loans. 

 

It is building up to the perfect storm. 

[FlorC]

So ft writes :

In the 12 months to the end of June, Thailand’s current account deficit was $2.2bn, a “massive turnround” from the $40bn surplus the country reported before the pandemic, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research for ANZ in Singapore. 

 

Yet from some news outlets of which kitco:

Thailand bought 43,5 tonnes of gold recently . about 2,5 billion $ ....

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-05-26/Central-banks-turning-to-gold-again-Bank-of-Thailand-buys-43-5-tonnes-in-April.html

 

Smart move to buy gold , but with a current deficit ...

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by FlorC

[fredscats]

55 minutes ago, CharlieH said:

The start (finally) of a very slipperyslope for the baht, been on the cards, now its starting to bite as red zones increase and pathetic management of the crisis deepens.

 

50 to £ before year end.

Nah    90

[redwood1]

If you think about it a big fall in the baht would work out quite nicely for corporate vultures to buy bankrupt Thai assets for rock bottom prices.....I am sure none of those blood sucking businessmen and corporate raiders would swoop in and take advantage of Thailand.....Cough Cough

Edited August 5, 2021 by redwood1

[Phredd]

Why does Thailand not use the US Dollar as their Currency. Many other countries do?

[MrJ2U]

Good for everyone.

 

Its been artificiality high for the past 11 years.  Mostly because of a few people in power manipulating it at the detriment of the Thai people.

 

It still needs more readjusting before it settles into a more realistic 35-36 baht to the dollar.

 

Good for the exporters who've been demanding action.  

 

Might be to late with Vietnam and India amongst others taking Thailand's place in foreign production.

[jacko45k]

Just now, smedly said:

That was Thai baht steady rise over the last 10 years (with a few spikes drops here and there)

No, that situation I mentioned was a very definite Brexit vote reaction.... I do  not deny the longer waves you mention. 

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, Phredd said:

Why does Thailand not use the US Dollar as their Currency. Many other countries do?

Because then they have no control over monetary policy.....and are in effect giving a free loan to the USA. 

[smedly]

when I first came here to live some 17 years ago I was getting 78baht to the pound and hitting almost 100k baht a month from my private income - dropped like a stone from there lol, still have to wait another 5 years for state pension which is a bummer lol

[RubbaJohnny]

15 minutes ago, mikecha said:

They loose all  or the whole family has to pay this back  later 

put on the street  take the car   ruthless these days 

 

our first  day 1 policy here  no dept  no money lending No financing    just pay cash  or transfer  within your means 

 

then never loose anything  

 

 

 but  Thai  people like dept  show new car

show

new this that  never understand this 

 

 

Some Thais have debts, but in latest figures I can find end 2020 less tahn USA or UK as a %of GDP, Government external debt is also far lower. Of course teh Covid economic hit will not help and it is a matter of concern as many people have very little safety net of welfare, savings or saleable assets.

 

Country	Last	Previous	Reference	Unit
Switzerland	133	131	Dec/20	%
Australia	124	123	Dec/20	%
Norway	115	113	Dec/20	%
Denmark	112	111	Dec/20	%
Canada	112	113	Mar/21	%
Netherlands	105	104	Dec/20	%
South Korea	104	101	Dec/20	%
New Zealand	97.6	95.1	Dec/20	%
Sweden	95.3	93.7	Dec/20	%
Hong Kong	91.2	88.1	Dec/20	%
United Kingdom	90	88.5	Dec/20	%
United States	79.5	77.8	Dec/20	%
Thailand	77.8	75.5	Dec/20	%
Malaysia	76.4	74.6	Dec/20	%
Luxembourg	70.8	70	Dec/20	%
Finland	69.3	68.6	Dec/20	%
France	68.7	67.2	Dec/20	%
Portugal	68.3	67.2	Dec/20	%
Belgium	67.7	66.4	Dec/20	%
Japan	65.3	64.4	Dec/20

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/households-debt-to-gdp

[jesimps]

1 hour ago, vandeventer said:

Yes, it gives you more money in the bank, but prices will go up on most things. I hope you like rice.

In the 14 years I've lived here I've never noticed the prices go down.

[smedly]

4 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

Good for everyone.

 

Its been artificiality high for the past 11 years.  Mostly because of a few people in power manipulating it at the detriment of the Thai people.

 

It still needs more readjusting before it settles into a more realistic 35-36 baht to the dollar.

 

Good for the exporters who've been demanding action.  

 

Might be to late with Vietnam and India amongst others taking Thailand's place in foreign production.

problem with the Thai baht and other 3rd world currencies is that they are managed poorly for the few rather than properly over a long term with small tweaks here and there - what happens is (just like a stock that is manipulated) it suddenly needs massive adjustment and crashes blowing itself out of the water caused by poor long term management corruption and greed  

[Zack61]

As much as I'd like to see the slide continue I acknowledge that the THB has remained somewhat immune and resilient to similar predictions and forecasts over the past 5 years and I don't see this trend as a sure bet. The dice don't always fall as we hope and I'll not be counting on it and only believe it when it happens. .

[tonray]

5 minutes ago, Zack61 said:

As much as I'd like to see the slide continue I acknowledge that the THB has remained somewhat immune and resilient to similar predictions and forecasts over the past 5 years and I don't see this trend as a sure bet. The dice don't always fall as we hope and I'll not be counting on it and only believe it when it happens. .

Very true. I think the best approach is almost the reverse of dollar cost averaging in investment. Move money over (if needed) periodically instead of waiting for the big thrust downward...which may or may not arrive. Downsides are additional fees but these days fees are quite low for xfers, either thru WISE or some brokers like Schwab ($15 per transfer regardless of amount)

Edited August 5, 2021 by tonray

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Just the beginning.

The bubbles burst, military leadership have shot themselves in the foot.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, lodstewart said:

50Bt to the pound sterling would be so good then 55Bt ,  back to before brexit great news for all the Brit pensioners

Back to 65 when I first moved here would be nice.

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Without Brexit we could have been looking at near 60 baht to the pound.

Maybe,  maybe not..... but the UK  Covid response would have been poorer, and I bet the vaccine donation would have been blocked. The topic is about the baht and really comparison to the USD is the important one. 

[Acharn]

Pfui. I hate these hypotheticals. "Could," "might," "There's a risk of." No information to help assess the actual risk. It's all just meant to arouse fear or hope. Heck, the baht might suddenly jump up to 31, too. I'd love to see it drop to 35 and stay there for three years, and it might do that. Who knows?