U.S. Housing Prices Explosion Making Repatriation a Less Realistic Option for Many?

[Jeffr2]

I've been a real estate investor for many decades.  I've seen several bubbles and several busts.  Lost my ass in the 2008 bust, but made a mint in the years before it. 

 

Just spoke with my partner in Vegas.  She said the same thing.  Just wait.  Prices will come down, especially as interest rates go up.

[GinBoy2]

9 hours ago, GypsyT said:

I came back in November to check housing market in LA and had a plan to come back to live 6-7 winter months there. I knew prices were up but I never believed they were up SO much.

It's insane! A new bank failure's coming soon. The man made new bubble is going to burst.

 

The only place to buy for less than 350k is Ridgecrest, Victorville and Fresno (I use Zillow to check). They all are depressing shacks. In LA even shacks and garden huts are 500k+. A good, modest house in any where in California is 650+.

 

Las Vegas, and even Mesquite, are expensive too. I need dry and warm/hot climate (got rheumatism) so there are not many states I can live in.

 

 

Well if you are wedded to dry and hot in California, your options for affordability in Southern California are going to be pretty limited.

 

The only places I could think of that probably are still affordable are those around the Salton Sea, but that comes with it's own baggage!

[Jingthing]

5 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

It is just the flip side of the same coin.

While repatriation back to the US is getting expensive, suddenly selling up and retiring in Thailand is financial very attractive. 

That is true. Thanks for that.

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, GinBoy2 said:

Well if you are wedded to dry and hot in California, your options for affordability in Southern California are going to be pretty limited.

 

The only places I could think of that probably are still affordable are those around the Salton Sea, but that comes with it's own baggage!

Just leave California.

[Jingthing]

A relevant podcast getting into a lot of the details of the situation. But I think they are sounding too cheerful about it.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/podcasts/post-reports/why-your-rent-is-going-up/

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, GinBoy2 said:

Well if you are wedded to dry and hot in California, your options for affordability in Southern California are going to be pretty limited.

 

The only places I could think of that probably are still affordable are those around the Salton Sea, but that comes with it's own baggage!

I grew up in SoCal and used to love it, still visit family there once or twice a year, but unless I got divorced I wouldn't move back on a bet. 

[meechai]

5 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

Renting out the US house and retiring in LOS is a much smarter option.

Head of the class comment !

 

People who do well never sell they leverage ????

[Jingthing]

17 minutes ago, meechai said:

Head of the class comment !

 

People who do well never sell they leverage ????

I don't believe there is a one size fits all plan. In fact I totally REJECT that.

 

There are good reasons to sell up:

 

Great timing for large profits

 

Taking the primary residence tax break not available to landlords

 

Needing the windfall to fund expatriation

 

Poor temperament match for being a landlord

 

Avoiding the possible great complications of being a landlord from abroad even using management firms

 

KEEP

IT

SIMPLE

 

Investing windfall money in other investment classes. If you love real estate you can buy reits.

Age when selling, estimated life expectancy

Ties to the US or lack thereof

 

Strong intention to never move back though of course minds can change

 

Each person faces their own unique decision making process based on complex factors

 

There is no guarantee of making the best decision whatever decision is made.

 

 

 

 

 

[meechai]

8 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I don't believe there is a one size fits all plan. In fact I totally REJECT that.

 

There are good reasons to sell up:

 

Great timing for large profits

 

How has that worked out for you & your topics like this one?

[Jingthing]

On 2/10/2022 at 9:02 PM, meechai said:

How has that worked out for you & your topics like this one?

You actually don't know the specific details of my personal finances.

The topic was started as a GENERAL discussion about one of the hottest topics in the US now.

 

 

[EVENKEEL]

59 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I don't believe there is a one size fits all plan. In fact I totally REJECT that.

 

There are good reasons to sell up:

 

Great timing for large profits

 

Taking the primary residence tax break not available to landlords

 

Needing the windfall to fund expatriation

 

Poor temperament match for being a landlord

 

Avoiding the possible great complications of being a landlord from abroad even using management firms

 

KEEP

IT

SIMPLE

 

Investing windfall money in other investment classes. If you love real estate you can buy reits.

Age when selling, estimated life expectancy

Ties to the US or lack thereof

 

Strong intention to never move back though of course minds can change

 

Each person faces their own unique decision making process based on complex factors

 

There is no guarantee of making the best decision whatever decision is made.

 

 

 

 

 

If I didn't have kids to leave my properties to I would have sold by now. Market is ripe for profit, invest for some safe 5-6% returns. I's be living in a 20 mil house on the beach (that I'd never be able to sell and wouldn't be in  my name to sell) instead of a 3.0 mil house away from the beach. But, but as you can see things change and if you want to move back to the US you're pretty much screwed with today's prices right now.

 

If I was moving back with no house I'd be looking at an RV park in Florida not too far from the  beach.

[Yellowtail]

On 2/10/2022 at 9:07 PM, Jingthing said:

 

 

I agree that it makes sense to sell a home if one is moving.

 

I would much rather have $100K in a brokerage account than $100K in equity in a home ten thousand miles away. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

11 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

If I didn't have kids to leave my properties to I would have sold by now. Market is ripe for profit, invest for some safe 5-6% returns. I's be living in a 20 mil house on the beach (that I'd never be able to sell and wouldn't be in  my name to sell) instead of a 3.0 mil house away from the beach. But, but as you can see things change and if you want to move back to the US you're pretty much screwed with today's prices right now.

 

If I was moving back with no house I'd be looking at an RV park in Florida not too far from the  beach.

If I were going back single I'd spend a few years in Point Loma and then perhaps NC or TN.

 

[EVENKEEL]

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

If I were going back single I'd spend a few years in Point Loma and then perhaps NC or TN.

 

I spent 17 yrs waiting for my 4 mos assignments out of the Sub Base there at the end of Rosecrans. 2 weeks to 2 mos at a time. Love it, Ocean Beach. had a CAC so went to beach NI Base.

 

[meechai]

On 2/10/2022 at 9:07 PM, Jingthing said:

 

You actually don't know the specific details of my personal finances.

The topic was started as a GENERAL discussion about one of the hottest topics in the US now.

 

 

U.S. Housing Prices Explosion Making Repatriation a Less Realistic Option for Many?

 

There is a question mark at the end of that sensational title & I answered saying not in my opinion & most that complain about this is as other have also said those that made choices that left them without a chair when the music stopped/changed

 

That aside it is in reality usually sensationalized by folks who have not been back in the US in years if not decades yet they want to pontificate over the so called USA "problems"

 

Yet the truth is boots on the actual US soil do not all find it so difficult

In many States even the ones with the highest cost of living there are still many great deals for rentals

I know this as I live in such a place

 

Yet those who in reality have no intention what so ever of returning to the USA always post topics such as these with so much doom & gloom but it is not  completely accurate

 

But these same gloom & doom posters frequently slag off the USA as a form of sour grapes because they will never return

 

 

[GypsyT]

Yeah, it's not an easy answer where to park for last years in life.

 

Maybe I do as Howard Hughes; find a cheap motel in desert and stay there?

 

"In 1947, Hughes locked himself in a darkened screening room for four months, doing little more than eating chocolate bars, drinking milk and relieving himself into empty bottles."

Except I may stay for years....

 

Plan B; As soon as Thailand opens up w/o silly hoop hopping I'll be there for 2-3 months and then go to
"my Switzerland" - DaLat in Vietnam (if they open up as well). Beautiful pine forest, like in Flagstaff, AZ. And cooler than Pattaya and nice and friendly people. Street food sucks, though. Never as good as in Thailand. 

 

[Jingthing]

On 2/11/2022 at 1:44 PM, meechai said:

U.S. Housing Prices Explosion Making Repatriation a Less Realistic Option for Many?

 

There is a question mark at the end of that sensational title & I answered saying not in my opinion & most that complain about this is as other have also said those that made choices that left them without a chair when the music stopped/changed

 

That aside it is in reality usually sensationalized by folks who have not been back in the US in years if not decades yet they want to pontificate over the so called USA "problems"

 

Yet the truth is boots on the actual US soil do not all find it so difficult In many States even the ones with the highest cost of living there are still many great deals for rentals. I know this as I live in such a place

 

Yet those who in reality have no intention what so ever of returning to the USA always post topics such as these

with so much doom & gloom but it is not  completely accurate

 

But these same gloom & doom posters frequently slag off the USA as a form of sour grapes because they will never return

 

 

 I can't take anyone seriously that doesn't get the reality that the U.S. is experiencing historically severe problems. That's real.

 

To wit:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/how-much-are-home-rents-rising-prices-surge-by-record-in-hot-us-housing-market?srnd=wealth&sref=9YK1BnKg

 

Quote

 

Renting a Home Is Even Harder Than Buying One in Unrelentingly Hot U.S. Market

 

For Atlanta real estate agent Jamie Douglas, a dearth of inventory has made it almost impossible to take on new clients hunting for affordable rental homes.

Now, she works with people who have at least $5,000 a month to spend on rent, double her usual base of around $2,500 because there’s just nothing available at lower price points. One house will get 15 to 20 applications and be rented within a day, she said.

 

 

 

https://variety.com/2022/film/features/ken-burns-documentaries-benjamin-franklin-donald-trump-pbs-1235182021/?utm_source=digg

 

Quote

 

Ken Burns’ Urgent Warning: Why He’s Scared For America’s Future

 

Ken Burns is scared about the future of America.

 

“I’m very anxious,” Burns admits. “I want my country to survive. I want to look back on all of this and go, ‘Wow, that was tough, but we made it through’ — just the way my parents and my grandparents talked to me about the Depression. I want to have this in our rearview mirror, but I don’t think that will happen for a while.”

 

Is it any wonder that for many or even most American expats in the world, repatriation is a LAST RESORT?

 

[meechai]

On 2/17/2022 at 8:43 AM, Jingthing said:

 

Is it any wonder that for many or even most American expats in the world, repatriation is a LAST RESORT?

 

Like I said if actual US citizens are looking to return I say come on home! The water is fine as many who have returned can attest to

 

No need to obsess over the sensationalized media that is often posted here.

 

There are always great deals to be had & while I am not saying I don't enjoy our life at our home in Thailand the safety net in the US is something to be proud of too.

 

You will always be medically cared for (Medicare or Medicaid) You will NEVER be refused treatment

 

You will always have food on your table & you will if you try at all have a roof over your head despite the sensationalized claims

 

Yes there are homeless too but to be honest most of them choose it

 

Jobs are available everywhere if you so choose...Minimum wage in the USA is quite good in most States with most menial jobs now offering much more than that as workers are scarce

(partially due to the benefits given to those who don't work)

 

So while repatriation to the USA may be last resort for some<sic> truth be told by those that did is....quite nice with so many benefits available to those in need

 

[GinBoy2]

On 2/17/2022 at 5:09 PM, meechai said:

Like I said if actual US citizens are looking to return I say come on home! The water is fine as many who have returned can attest to

 

No need to obsess over the sensationalized media that is often posted here.

 

There are always great deals to be had & while I am not saying I don't enjoy our life at our home in Thailand the safety net in the US is something to be proud of too.

 

You will always be medically cared for (Medicare or Medicaid) You will NEVER be refused treatment

 

You will always have food on your table & you will if you try at all have a roof over your head despite the sensationalized claims

 

Yes there are homeless too but to be honest most of them choose it

 

Jobs are available everywhere if you so choose...Minimum wage in the USA is quite good in most States with most menial jobs now offering much more than that as workers are scarce

(partially due to the benefits given to those who don't work)

 

So while repatriation to the USA may be last resort for some<sic> truth be told by those that did is....quite nice with so many benefits available to those in need

 

 

 The US in general with regards to living has hardly changing my lifetime. We'll not go the politics route, but living standards have in anything improved for the vast majority

 

So, of course you can repatriate, many of us have, although we still have our home in Thailand.

 

Yes, housing is on a surge right now, but all three of my/our kids now have just bought homes, so nothing is impossible.

 

I have fully admitted, I always kept a home in the US, since it's the ultimate bolt hole to be in your own country.

 

No, we don't live in some crime ridden Hell Hole, we just live normal middle class suburban lives, which I think would be recognisable to most Americans of our generation

 

Got to admit healthcare figured in to the equation for us, amongst many others.

I saw the writing on the wall for my Cigna insurance rates, and NO I wasn't going to resort to the local Government hospital if push came to shove

 

So you don't need to live in downtown Detroit to find somewhere it's affordable to live, but again a lot depends on choices you made many many years ago how this pans out

[Jingthing]

Putting this in historical context.

 

 

[Jingthing]

You can find local news stories like this all over the country. A few members here seem to be suggesting that people just ignore the press on this issue. I don't buy that.

 

 

 

[onthedarkside]

A number of posts here have been edited or removed because of flame comments, trolling and bickering.

 

Please try to discuss and even disagree on the topic, without making it personal against fellow forum members.

 

[Yellowtail]

On 2/19/2022 at 3:30 PM, Jingthing said:

You can find local news stories like this all over the country. A few members here seem to be suggesting that people just ignore the press on this issue. I don't buy that.

 

 

 

Housing is a human right, that's hilarious. 

[GinBoy2]

On 2/19/2022 at 1:30 AM, Jingthing said:

You can find local news stories like this all over the country. A few members here seem to be suggesting that people just ignore the press on this issue. I don't buy that.

 

 

 

Folks have been protesting about housing prices, gas prices, food prices for as long as I remember.

 

The only difference is now social media and a 24 hour news cycle need something to sensationalize and drive 'likes' and create clickbate.

......Oh and lets not forget, social security has been going bankrupt for at least the past 40 years!

[GinBoy2]

On 2/10/2022 at 11:19 PM, EVENKEEL said:

I spent 17 yrs waiting for my 4 mos assignments out of the Sub Base there at the end of Rosecrans. 2 weeks to 2 mos at a time. Love it, Ocean Beach. had a CAC so went to beach NI Base.

 

I love San Diego, lived there for years in Mission Valley, my youngest daughter still lives there.

 

I'd love to move back, but OMG, the traffic! I'm not sure I could deal with that anymore. We were there last year and as much as my wife loved the place, the traffic was a definite No No

[Jingthing]

Such misery.

 

Rents going through the roof as post-pandemic hikes continue (msn.com)

Quote

 

Krystal Guerra's Miami apartment has a tiny kitchen, cracked tiles, warped cabinets, no dishwasher and hardly any storage space.

 

But Guerra was fine with the apartment's shortcomings. It was all part of being a 32-year-old graduate student in South Florida, she reasoned, and she was happy to live there for a few more years as she finished her marketing degree.

 

That was until a new owner bought the property and told her he was raising the rent from $1,550 to $1,950, a 26% increase that Guerra said meant her rent would account for the majority of her take-home pay from the University of Miami.

 

 

[Jingthing]

21 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

Folks have been protesting about housing prices, gas prices, food prices for as long as I remember.

 

The only difference is now social media and a 24 hour news cycle need something to sensationalize and drive 'likes' and create clickbate.

......Oh and lets not forget, social security has been going bankrupt for at least the past 40 years!

Whoa!

First of all, silly whataboutism on social security that isn't even true.

So don't listen to the media, huh?
I don't get it. You actually don't believe there that there have been recent massive rent and housing cost increases in the USA?

Believe it. It is true. 

At the end of the day, there is something very wrong with a country where a person working full time at a lower paying job can't even begin to afford even BASIC SHELTER in most of the country.

Compare to Thailand. There are at least basics roofs over heads for lower wage workers here.

Of course people on lower social security checks are in a similar situation to lower wage workers, and often worse off if they don't own housing clear.

[Jingthing]

On 2/21/2022 at 5:08 AM, Yellowtail said:

Housing is a human right, that's hilarious. 

This isn't the place for such an ideological debate.

I would say if you're living in Minnesota in the winter a decent society at the very least provides at least basic shelter for all as without it people die very quickly. 

I would also say if a person is working full time OR on social security there should be at least BASIC HOUSING options.

Section 8 was mentioned here.

I recently read there is new trend for landlords to drop Section 8 because they want to ride this historic rent inflation and Section 8 won't pay that high. 

The deniers can act like this isn't a serious problem and a media fake news. Obviously it isn't for the wealthy. But it's still a real problem for ever increasing millions of Americans and that would include a portion of those repatriating as well. 

[EVENKEEL]

15 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Such misery.

 

Rents going through the roof as post-pandemic hikes continue (msn.com)

 

Krystal Guerra's Miami apartment has a tiny kitchen, cracked tiles, warped cabinets, no dishwasher and hardly any storage space.

 

That describes where I live, oh the horror, no dishwasher.

 

All joking aside, while I'll agree rent is crazy high some locations, the mindset of people is to live in a large place.

https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/size_of_average_american_house_doubled_since_1950s/#:~:text=Despite having ever-smaller families%2C the size of the,1950s%3B it now stands at 2%2C349 square feet.

When we moved location in Thailand we rented an "Apartment" which is basically a hotel room for 4,000 thb/mo There are 3 of us. The manager lived nextdoor in a room the same size with 4 people. I know most people in the US would think the world was so unfair if a family of 3-4 had to live in one small room.  

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Krystal Guerra's Miami apartment has a tiny kitchen, cracked tiles, warped cabinets, no dishwasher and hardly any storage space.

 

That describes where I live, oh the horror, no dishwasher.

Me either. But you're cherry picking things to snipe at. The bigger story is that rent is totally absurd for that unit and think of the many millions of Americans if not homeless or living in cars that now have to spend the majority of their income just for a CRAPPY roof over their head. That is not a decent society. I'm concerned because history shows that severe suffering from inflation leads to unspeakable things.