COVID-19: Thailand reports 13,988 coronavirus cases

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2 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

CLAIM: No virus has ever mutated to become more lethal. As viruses mutate, they become less lethal.

 

Notice the wording they used.  The claim is it never happens.   Yes it happens, but for the most part, they become less deadly as the deadly strains don't last long.  Also you will see a completely different tone and less bias when searching for results before 2020.

I can't track it down now, but I've read a more technical study that says this is a popular misconception. All I recall now is that the scientist who first proposed cited a particular virus as evidence and it turned out it wasn't even the case for that one. 

And even if it were true that viruses eventually turn more benign, it's very early days for that to be happening.

[Macrohistory]

18 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

Holds true to the idea that as viruses mutate they become more transmissible but less lethal.  It makes sense that a virus will have mutations that do not quickly kill their host become the dominant strain.

 

Survival rates of below 50 have always been high because young people never had much of an issue with corona.  Older people survivability has become higher over time due to less deadly strains, weak subset of elderly population dying early, knowledge on how to treat patients, and vaccines.

 

Just like with the flu, younger people are generally safe while older people are recommended to take the vaccine and take precautions.

 

Even in news reporting they have been harping on case count while ignoring death rate.

 

Try to keep up:

 

 

WebMD

 

Delta Variant Doubles Hospitalization Risk, Study Says

By Carolyn Crist

 

Aug. 30, 2021 -- People who contract the Delta variant have double the risk of hospitalization, as compared with earlier versions of the coronavirus, according to a new study published Friday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

 

Based in England, the large study found that the Delta variant led to a higher rate of hospital admission and emergency care, with fewer than 2% of infections occurring in fully vaccinated people.

 

“The main takeaway is that if you have an unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated population, then an outbreak of Delta can lead to a higher burden on hospitals, on health care, than an Alpha outbreak would,” Anne Presanis, one of the lead study authors and a biostatistician at the University of Cambridge, told The New York Times...

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210830/delta-variant-doubles-hospitalization-risk-study

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

CLAIM: No virus has ever mutated to become more lethal. As viruses mutate, they become less lethal.

 

Notice the wording they used.  The claim is it never happens.   Yes it happens, but for the most part, they become less deadly as the deadly strains don't last long.  Also you will see a completely different tone and less bias when searching for results before 2020.

Delta has immune reducing capabilities for all current vaccines, together with its higher viral load and being more virulent. It is just being pedantic to claim its not more dangerous, it is far more dangerous that’s why the world has been suffering from it.

[Kadilo]

Latest Vaccination data. 13% now double jabbed. At current rates 70% precisely to be fully vaccinated by mid December. 
 

Seems the current plans for opening up are all coming together if they can meet this target. Be interesting to see if places like the UK will remove Thailand from its red list in the coming weeks in time for Xmas/NY, and in light of the fantastic vaccination efforts. 

 

https://covidvax.live/en/location/tha

[TooMuchTime]

7 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

 

Try to keep up:

 

 

WebMD

 

Delta Variant Doubles Hospitalization Risk, Study Says

By Carolyn Crist

 

Aug. 30, 2021 -- People who contract the Delta variant have double the risk of hospitalization, as compared with earlier versions of the coronavirus, according to a new study published Friday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

 

Based in England, the large study found that the Delta variant led to a higher rate of hospital admission and emergency care, with fewer than 2% of infections occurring in fully vaccinated people.

 

“The main takeaway is that if you have an unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated population, then an outbreak of Delta can lead to a higher burden on hospitals, on health care, than an Alpha outbreak would,” Anne Presanis, one of the lead study authors and a biostatistician at the University of Cambridge, told The New York Times...

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210830/delta-variant-doubles-hospitalization-risk-study

 

 

This has nothing to do with survival which I posted about.  You also didn't post any numbers of the rates...  Did you just google this and read the headline?

Looking at the study in the link.  Not that much of a difference and if you have ever taken a stats class a pvalue of .82 basically means the numbers are useless.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext

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24 minutes ago, smedly said:

although Phuket was a focus point for tourism it is now a very good example of how effective Thailands vaccine program is if the whole population was vaxed in the same way - they are now seeing 1500+ cases a week and that is with limited testing, for me that tells a lot about how things will lookk when the whole country is vaxed in a similar way.  It doesn't look good does it

Well, infection is only part of the consideration. How effective are these vaccines at reducing hospitalizations and deaths. So far, Phuket has a far lower percentage of deaths than the Thai average. But since no breakdowns are offered on who is getting hospitalized and dying - is it disproportionately the unvaccinated - your observation is more than a bit tendentious.

[smedly]

3 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

This has nothing to do with survival which I posted about.  You also didn't post any numbers of the rates...  Did you just google this and read the headline?

Looking at the study in the link.  Not that much of a difference and if you have ever taken a stats class a pvalue of .82 basically means the numbers are useless.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext

what exact point are you trying to make ?

 

May I suggest you make it and move on 

[Kaopad999]

Good to see cases going down. 

Hopefully they will open the country back up by the end of the year ????

[smedly]

2 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

Good to see cases going down. 

Hopefully they will open the country back up by the end of the year ????

lets be clear - detections are going down, not the same thing 

[TooMuchTime]

Just now, smedly said:

what exact point are you trying to make ?

 

May I suggest you make it and move on 

That the data you presented is useless.. 

Google what a high pvalue means in regards to stats.  The data says they used a 95% CI, if their hypothesis were to be proven true, the pvalue would be <.05.

 

Essentially, you posted statistically false information.

[smedly]

1 minute ago, TooMuchTime said:

That the data you presented is useless.. 

Google what a high pvalue means in regards to stats.  The data says they used a 95% CI, if their hypothesis were to be proven true, the pvalue would be <.05.

 

Essentially, you posted statistically false information.

I didn't post any data

[Kadilo]

8 minutes ago, GStewart70 said:

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/09/02/details-on-proposed-pattaya-reopening-plan-in-october-other-areas-also-proposed-by-tourism-authority/

 

You better have a reality check before you get yourself all excited.

As the article clearly states, the multiple hoops required will lead to thousands not millions returning to Thailand anytime soon.

Please read and absorb this information, it will save us all from another day of 

'it's all over, the party's starting, the tills are going to be ringing off the counters, my bar is saved.' type posts from your good, totally uninformed, self.

Interesting article, thanks for sharing. 
 

I think the opening paragraph is worth noting :

 

‘The program is, at this time and subject to change, based on a “bubble and seal” standard operating platform,’

 

Things can change very quickly here as we all know. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by Kadilo

[Kadilo]

8 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

Good to see cases going down. 

Hopefully they will open the country back up by the end of the year ????

Looks very likely with the success of the vaccination rollout and the number of new cases dropping. The opening of provinces announced in the past few days shows their intent and although at this time there are still conditions in place, I would predict that some will be removed if the data keeps showing favourably. 

[Kaopad999]

2 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Looks very likely with the success of the vaccination rollout and the number of new cases dropping. The opening of provinces announced in the past few days shows their intent and although at this time there are still conditions in place, I would predict that some will be removed if the data keeps showing favourably. 

Fingers + toes crossed! 

[Scott]

Troll post and replies reported and removed.  

 

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, anchadian said:

Phuket health authorities are reporting 241 new local cases , zero cases from the Sandbox and three deaths. There are now 2,536 patients in care . The #PhuketSandbox has had 88 cases since 1st July #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1434663585561473027

It has now been reported that Phuket,s Hospitals are now full.

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, smedly said:

what is your point - have you made it already, it must have so ground breaking I missed it

Not sure what points he’s trying to make but I do know this, since 1st April the Alpha and Delta wave have resulted in 13,042 deaths as apposed to the first wave original strain of just 94. 
 

That’s really all the matters.

[Bkk Brian]

37 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

This has nothing to do with survival which I posted about.  You also didn't post any numbers of the rates...  Did you just google this and read the headline?

Looking at the study in the link.  Not that much of a difference and if you have ever taken a stats class a pvalue of .82 basically means the numbers are useless.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext

Did you submit a peer review to the Lancet for this study to let them know their numbers are useless? Reading the real experts take none of them mentioned it.

[anchadian]

The prime minister has called a meeting for 10th September to discuss the cancelling of the emergency decree and to use the Communicable Disease Act instead. In addition, the CCSA would be dissolved and their work handed over to the Ministry of Public Health #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1434746653391548417

 

[Rhacsyn]

50 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

It has now been reported that Phuket,s Hospitals are now full.

There is a detailed daily report in Phuket News including a breakdown on patient sickness levels . Today it states Covid bed occupancy is 78%, up from 77% yesterday

Edited September 6, 2021 by Rhacsyn
Spelling

[smedly]

49 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

It has now been reported that Phuket,s Hospitals are now full.

and the hotels are empty lol

[Petey11]

4 minutes ago, anchadian said:

The prime minister has called a meeting for 10th September to discuss the cancelling of the emergency decree and to use the Communicable Disease Act instead. In addition, the CCSA would be dissolved and their work handed over to the Ministry of Public Health #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1434746653391548417

 

They obviously think the pandemics over by dissolving the CCSA, or are the CCSA making too many noises behind the scenes and the PM doesn't like it?

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, anchadian said:

The prime minister has called a meeting for 10th September to discuss the cancelling of the emergency decree and to use the Communicable Disease Act instead. In addition, the CCSA would be dissolved and their work handed over to the Ministry of Public Health #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1434746653391548417

 

daily entertainment on its way then with Anutin back in charge soon

[smedly]

5 minutes ago, Rhacsyn said:

There is a detailed daily report in Phuket News including a breakdown on patient sickness levels . Today it states Covid bed occuoancy is 78%, up from 77% yesterday

I wonder who is using the other 22% - maybe sick people

[anchadian]

Today there were 187 deaths in #Thailand

 

101 males & 86 females

Burmese (4), Chinese (1), American (1)

Median age 70 (13-95 years)

13 year old had underlying condition

Most deaths in Bangkok (24

) 70% of deaths aged 60+

1 died at home

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1434755028552601600

[anchadian]

4 hours ago, anchadian said:

Chonburi Public Health Office is reporting 703 new cases today and 4 more deaths. Most new cases are in Chonburi City (94), Bang Lamung/Pattaya (145), and Si Racha (229). There are 13,821 patients in care #COVID19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1434663196380389382

Further details:

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/09/06/chonburi-reports-703-new-covid-19-cases-with-4-deaths/

[Macrohistory]

2 hours ago, TooMuchTime said:

This has nothing to do with survival which I posted about.  You also didn't post any numbers of the rates...  Did you just google this and read the headline?

Looking at the study in the link.  Not that much of a difference and if you have ever taken a stats class a pvalue of .82 basically means the numbers are useless.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext

????  Your rejoinder is riddled with logical flaws.  The original proposition was yours:  as a virus mutates, you said, it always becomes less deadly.  This study provides data suggesting that in the case of SARS-CoV-2, a virus actually becomes MORE likely to hospitalize a victim -- and need for hospitalization is always correlated with more likely to lead to death.  The p value does not support your case. ..

 

That is because what you need to demonstrate to support your original wild claim that viruses always become less deadly is data showing that Delta leads to FEWER hospitalizations.  If you can find that, I'll accept a p value of more than the conventional .05 and will then acknowledge that you are right about SARS-CoV-2 becoming less deadly.

 

So go see if you can find such data.  I will wait.

 

Edit:

 

Hang on -- it's even better (this is from the Lancet study):  "‡ p values are for tests for interaction between vaccination status and variant."

 

In other words, the p values don't even address the significance of the difference between Alpha and Delta.  They say instead that the significance of the difference between Alpha and Delta holds up regardless of vaccination status.

Edited September 6, 2021 by Macrohistory

[anchadian]

Out of 13,527 local cases (not in prisons) Bangkok 3,610 Samut Prakan 868 Samut Sakhon 711 Chonburi 703 Chachoengsao 488 Rayong 464 Nonthaburi 300 Ayutthaya 294 Nakhon Ratchasima 278 Ratchaburi 267

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1434756311858630662

 

[anchadian]

Trending on Twitter today with over 768 thousand tweets as of now #ไม่เรียนออนไลน์แล้วอิสัส which means essentially not to study online anymore. It is clear many students, teachers, and parents are tired of schools being closed. When will they open? #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/The_PattayaNews/status/1434757605834985478

 

[Neeranam]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Lumpini park for my run

Do they make runners wear a mask there?