Op-Ed: Thai view on the new AUKUS alliance

[webfact]

US President Joe Biden participates is a virtual press conference on national security with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (R) and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on September 15, 2021. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)

 

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

 

The new military alliance among three Anglo-Saxon countries – the US, the UK and Australia, known as AUKUS – for the sharing of nuclear submarine technology is a bad move. It will have far-reaching ramifications for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and ratchet up the arms race. It will turn Southeast Asia into the new battleground of the “Hot and Sour War”.

 

Forget the old description of the Cold War, this is a war of attrition and intimidation in the ocean with feverish maneuverings.  Major and mid-sized powers need to absorb this sudden shift of nuclear-power realignment quickly. One thing is clear, Southeast Asia, situated at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region, cannot remain passive and become a pawn for the nuclear powers. In a way, thanks to President Joe Biden’s quick reaction to the post-Afghanistan chaos, the region has seen his administration’s true colours – jumping from one debacle to create a new one. The tripartite alliance will change the way the region perceives the US for the rest of 21st century.

 

Thailand, a US ally which enjoys excellent ties with China, has been dropped onto the proverbial race track because one small miscalculation could see the strategic balance of their most important bilateral ties crashing into the barriers. As a country with coastlines in both the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, Bangkok views the latest US move as a destabilising factor, as it will put every nation in the region on high alert.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/op-ed-thai-view-on-the-new-aukus-alliance/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-09-21

 

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[Jingthing]

Will they recall their Ambassador?

[mahtin]

Thailand now Chinese pawn, thanks for the virus, no thanks to Joe for the vaccine?

[Denim]

3 minutes ago, webfact said:

The new military alliance among three Anglo-Saxon countries – the US, the UK and Australia, known as AUKUS – for the sharing of nuclear submarine technology is a bad move. It will have far-reaching ramifications for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and ratchet up the arms race.

Rubbish.

 

Thailand is now a virtual vassal state of China so this parroting of the Chinese Communist Party line is to be expected.

 

The reality is that the Chinese have been steadily building up their naval strength , have built illegal island bases on China sea reefs , in fact have laid claim to the whole sea riding rough shod over territorial claims of the Philippines , Vietnam , Malaysia and Brunei. 

 

In addition they have made repeated promises to retake Taiwan by force, have repeatedly violated the air space of the above three countries and threatened retaliation against Japan or the USA should they try to come to Taiwans defense.

 

The Chinese Communist party is doing more to wreck the stability of the region than all the others combined. Make no mistake, they started this race themselves and expect everyone else to be intimidated by their threats. If they are foolish enough to start something they will quickly come to regret it. In the meantime they are hoping their bullying and swaggering will get them hegemony over the area without any interference. 

[Boomer6969]

Quite a story, in my view Australia chose to purchase conventional submarines back in 2016 as only because of the long standing anti-nuclear sentiment in the country. But things can change quickly as the Chinese ambitions become more and more ominous; hence proceeding with traditional hardware would have been strongly reminiscent of the Maginot  line. Strange that the French can't (or don't want to) understand this.

 

Anyhow AUKUS is the pragmatic answer to the new state of play in the region. But it may be improved if the France joined at some stage as they have some presence here too. Of course we know that what happened at Nato is the reason why they have been left out, quite understandably.

[steven100]

This is a good move and the correct move by Australia, UK and the US.  I have said all along that Australia should and must have a greater US military presence in Australia's top end,   even just for training and as a deterrent.  The Pine Gap is fine as it's a special communications post, however, a large military base should be located in NT or the Top end.   

And for all those Aussie's who are so naive and object to nuclear subs,  how about looking up China's sudden nuclear expansion in Yumen.  100 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles in a desert near the northwestern city of Yumen, a building spree that could signal a major expansion of Beijing’s nuclear capabilities.

 

Australia needs the US more so than ever now imo.  

 

 

 

Edited September 21, 2021 by steven100

[Mr Meeseeks]

Thai subs will be next to useless against these new nuclear attack subs.

 

Oh dear.

[BangkokReady]

I wonder how the other SEA nations feel about this.  Probably a positive for them.

[Eric Loh]

30 minutes ago, Denim said:

Rubbish.

 

Thailand is now a virtual vassal state of China so this parroting of the Chinese Communist Party line is to be expected.

 

The reality is that the Chinese have been steadily building up their naval strength , have built illegal island bases on China sea reefs , in fact have laid claim to the whole sea riding rough shod over territorial claims of the Philippines , Vietnam , Malaysia and Brunei. 

 

In addition they have made repeated promises to retake Taiwan by force, have repeatedly violated the air space of the above three countries and threatened retaliation against Japan or the USA should they try to come to Taiwans defense.

 

The Chinese Communist party is doing more to wreck the stability of the region than all the others combined. Make no mistake, they started this race themselves and expect everyone else to be intimidated by their threats. If they are foolish enough to start something they will quickly come to regret it. In the meantime they are hoping their bullying and swaggering will get them hegemony over the area without any interference. 

China don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world. Who is doing the bullying? 

[Mr Meeseeks]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

China don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world. Who is doing the bullying? 

US naval fleets travel under freedom of navigation which China continues to challenge, and they don't travel into territorial waters without permission or an invite.

 

China continues to invade Taiwanese airspace in attempts to provoke and give an excuse for an invasion.

[steven100]

5 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

I wonder how the other SEA nations feel about this.  Probably a positive for them.

Singapore agrees with this idea entirely,  however Malaysia and Indonesia as expected feel it will create an arms race within the region. 

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

China don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world. Who is doing the bullying? 

China.

[BangkokReady]

1 minute ago, steven100 said:

Singapore agrees with this idea entirely,  however Malaysia and Indonesia as expected feel it will create an arms race within the region. 

What about Philippines and Vietnam?  Aren't they two that are fairly at odds with China?

[Mavideol]

42 minutes ago, Denim said:

Rubbish.

 

Thailand is now a virtual vassal state of China so this parroting of the Chinese Communist Party line is to be expected.

 

The reality is that the Chinese have been steadily building up their naval strength , have built illegal island bases on China sea reefs , in fact have laid claim to the whole sea riding rough shod over territorial claims of the Philippines , Vietnam , Malaysia and Brunei. 

 

In addition they have made repeated promises to retake Taiwan by force, have repeatedly violated the air space of the above three countries and threatened retaliation against Japan or the USA should they try to come to Taiwans defense.

 

The Chinese Communist party is doing more to wreck the stability of the region than all the others combined. Make no mistake, they started this race themselves and expect everyone else to be intimidated by their threats. If they are foolish enough to start something they will quickly come to regret it. In the meantime they are hoping their bullying and swaggering will get them hegemony over the area without any interference. 

and after all the riff raff in SCS territories China is starting to claim half of the oon as well.... next step they will claim the 99 dash lines they "imaginary" created in space....

 

P.S= sarcasm intended  555

[Farangdk]

13 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Thai subs will be next to useless against these new nuclear attack subs.

 

Oh dear.

Correct. Thailand need to get some nuclear attack subs too. 

[Eric Loh]

7 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

US naval fleets travel under freedom of navigation which China continues to challenge, and they don't travel into territorial waters without permission or an invite.

 

China continues to invade Taiwanese airspace in attempts to provoke and give an excuse for an invasion.

Just one example of uninvited intrusion.
 

By the way, why are there so many US military bases overseas. Last count 119 in Germany, 119 Japan, 73 in SK, 44 Italy as well as more than a dozen countries. Seem intimidating. 
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/us-navy-freedom-of-navigation-operation-india-waters-without-consent-7265898/

Edited September 21, 2021 by Eric Loh
Wrong word

[steven100]

2 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

What about Philippines and Vietnam?  Aren't they two that are fairly at odds with China?

Philippines is in agreement with the AUKUS as it has it's own spat with China's aggressive behavior and is also calling for a renewed US-Philippines military pact that just ended, but I believe it's been renewed already.  As for Vietnam, I just read this piece of info from the Conversation newspaper ... ' Japan and South Korea are clearly in this camp and their muted reaction to AUKUS suggests they are in favour of a “re-balancing” in the region. Taiwan and Vietnam are probably on this side, as well."

[GBW]

If the French join in, will it simply be called FAUKUS........  Just thinking..............   ????

[Mr Meeseeks]

2 minutes ago, Farangdk said:

Correct. Thailand need to get some nuclear attack subs too. 

They don't have the tech and wouldn't be able to maintain them so its a non-starter. 

 

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Just one example of invited intrusion. By the way, why are there so many US military bases overseas. Last count 119 in Germany, 119 Japan, 73 in SK, 44 Italy as well as more than a dozen countries. Seem intimidating. 
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/us-navy-freedom-of-navigation-operation-india-waters-without-consent-7265898/

You don't remember WWII ? 

[mfd101]

Philippines Foreign Sec expressed this morning his strong support for the Oz move, noting that the ASEAN nations are militarily incapable of maintaining peace & stability in the region.

 

Personally I'm in favour of the Russians joining the deal too. Then it could be called RAUKUS, which would be self-explanatory for the masses.

[Thaifish]

A bloke at work had the nickname of "Collins Class" after the Sub. They kept pouring good money into him and he never worked.

[steven100]

Pacific Ocean. Indian Ocean. Antarctic Ocean.

Diesel vs. nuclear power?

One US sub (eg: Virginia class) will go for 33 years on a few pellets of U235 (uranium 235).

One tank of diesel will get a French barracuda attack class sub to where…   ?     Lol

[steven100]

15 minutes ago, GBW said:

If the French join in, will it simply be called FAUKUS........  Just thinking..............   ????

that's a good one .... i couldn't stop laughing !!!   

[BangkokReady]

23 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Just one example of uninvited intrusion.

By China, yes.  By the US, no.

 

Quote

By the way, why are there so many US military bases overseas. ...Seem intimidating. 

I'm not sure why your ally's presence should be intimidating.  I would imagine it would be reassuring, especially if you are in danger of being attacked by your much larger neighbor.

Edited September 21, 2021 by BangkokReady

[Eric Loh]

25 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

You don't remember WWII ? 

Asia including China are eternally grateful for US war contribution to WW11. That era has long gone and US need to re-think their foreign policy that military brinksmanship and superiority made America and the world less safe.  

Edited September 21, 2021 by Eric Loh
Wrong word

[Misty]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Thailand, a US ally which enjoys excellent ties with China

Why I wonder.

[mahtin]

3 minutes ago, Misty said:

Why I wonder.

Likely China wrote the script. As was already suggested.

[dinsdale]

US, Britain, Australia, Japan and India. China should be very careful. I've been saying for years that the CCP are the biggest threat to global stability.  If there is a war what will Thailand do? 

[mahtin]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

US, Britain, Australia, Japan and India. China should be very careful. I've been saying for years that the CCP are the biggest threat to global stability.  If there is a war what will Thailand do? 

Smoulder.

[dinsdale]

22 minutes ago, Thaifish said:

A bloke at work had the nickname of "Collins Class" after the Sub. They kept pouring good money into him and he never worked.

There were some war games where a collins sub sunk a US nuclear sub.