SURVEY: Will opening up result in more Covid cases?

[Scott]

In your opinion, do you think that opening for tourists will result in an increase in Covid cases?

 

Please feel free to leave a comment.

[Artisi]

There will be and seems like there will always be more cases, a result of opening the country - who really knows but both sides of the argument will be beating their own drum. 

[Farangus]

There will be, but 95% not because of foreigners who are vaccinated and tested before the flight and after arrival, but because of Thai citizens. Although it must be admitted that foreigners will also be the reason that large groups of people will gather and someone will be the source of infection in any case.
But I think the harm for the economy and for many families is more from the fact that the country is closed. than from Covid.

[Bluespunk]

Yes, of course there will be more infections, opening up makes it easier for C19 to spread.

 

However as long as people are vaccinated then the consequences of contracting C19 will be greatly reduced.

 

The vaccines as they currently are do not prevent infection and spread [though there is some evidence they do make this less likely but not impossible] but rather allow us to return to some semblance of normality.

 

As long as people are vaccinated then opening up makes sense. I have always supported the idea of lockdowns and restrictions on opening up while vaccination was not possible, however once it is, then such measures cease to make sense.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/keythingstoknow.html

[KhunBENQ]

Yes there will be more among Thai population.

But as other countries they should focus on watching deaths/severe cases/hospitalization.

The number of (detected) cases is just too inaccurate/vague.

Edited October 24, 2021 by KhunBENQ

[Thailand]

Of course there will be more cases but the economy could click in to a slow revival mode.

[ArcticFox]

If you completely believe that "Vaccines are Safe and Effective and 'They Work'" (I hear this exact quote from the POTUS and other world leaders daily so I believe it to be 100% true), then fully vaccinated foreigners will pose absolutely no Covid risk to Thailand as they will be immune from either contracting or transmitting the virus.  If you believe, then you vote "No" or "It's time to open up."

If you are a non-believer and don't fully believe the world leader and their 'experts' that "Vaccines are Safe and Effective and 'They Work'" and you don't believe there efficacy to keep you from either contracting or transmitting the virus.  If you don't believe, then you vote "Yes."
Of course you may vote "Yes" if you are so thoroughly confused that you don't know what to believe anymore.

Me personally?  It's time to open up.  I'm very much a "Damn the Torpedoes and full-speed ahead type of guy."  It's time to live with it and dispense with the fear.

[Percy P]

Not if people follow the rules

[4MyEgo]

If you look at what's happening in the UK, it's a YES from me.

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/new-variant-no-masks-whats-driving-uks-covid-19-crisis-as-cases-spiral-out-of-control-c-4317835?fbclid=IwAR3f8gVbt3cmQBOCzNxrd3DZvXjKkYgnzSwWPyLQK4CfZsZTae2UrguDazs

[ArcticFox]

14 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

If you look at what's happening in the UK, it's a YES from me.

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/new-variant-no-masks-whats-driving-uks-covid-19-crisis-as-cases-spiral-out-of-control-c-4317835?fbclid=IwAR3f8gVbt3cmQBOCzNxrd3DZvXjKkYgnzSwWPyLQK4CfZsZTae2UrguDazs

Shhh.  Don't even look at Israel's Pfizer experiment. 

Still - It's time to accept what is and to open up. Imho that it.

[jak2002003]

31 minutes ago, Percy P said:

Not if people follow the rules

When do people ever follow the rules? 

 

 

[James105]

46 minutes ago, ArcticFox said:

If you completely believe that "Vaccines are Safe and Effective and 'They Work'" (I hear this exact quote from the POTUS and other world leaders daily so I believe it to be 100% true), then fully vaccinated foreigners will pose absolutely no Covid risk to Thailand as they will be immune from either contracting or transmitting the virus.  If you believe, then you vote "No" or "It's time to open up."

If you are a non-believer and don't fully believe the world leader and their 'experts' that "Vaccines are Safe and Effective and 'They Work'" and you don't believe there efficacy to keep you from either contracting or transmitting the virus.  If you don't believe, then you vote "Yes."
Of course you may vote "Yes" if you are so thoroughly confused that you don't know what to believe anymore.

Me personally?  It's time to open up.  I'm very much a "Damn the Torpedoes and full-speed ahead type of guy."  It's time to live with it and dispense with the fear.

Thailand clearly does not believe the vaccines work since a fully vaccinated visitor has to:

 

1. Take a PCR test 72 hours prior to departure

2. Take a PCR test on arrival

3. Quarantine until test is negative.

4. If positive sent to hospijail

5. Take a test 6 days after arrival.

6. Require $50,000 covid specific insurance.

 

If they had confidence in the vaccine then steps 1-6 above would not be necessary.    

[4MyEgo]

18 minutes ago, ArcticFox said:

Shhh.  Don't even look at Israel's Pfizer experiment. 

Still - It's time to accept what is and to open up. Imho that it.

Can't disagree with that comment, however, it is normal for viruses to still infect people even if they have been vaccinated as none are 100% effective.

 

The above said, it will ultimately be the survival of the fittest, i.e. lives will be shorter lived for some, so to speak. 

 

The new norm.

[finnsk]

More activity in the the thai society to serve the tourists, will give more infections.

 

The tourists is not the problem, the low wax rate in Thailand at around 38 % is the problem.

 

Its a high risk as a western tourist to come here, get covid here and get trapped in a overpriced, no service, quarantine hotel.

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

If you look at what's happening in the UK, it's a YES from me.

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/new-variant-no-masks-whats-driving-uks-covid-19-crisis-as-cases-spiral-out-of-control-c-4317835?fbclid=IwAR3f8gVbt3cmQBOCzNxrd3DZvXjKkYgnzSwWPyLQK4CfZsZTae2UrguDazs

Since March this year, there have been 40,000 extra Thai deaths above the normal - or excess deaths.

Yet Thailand has only declared 18,000 deaths for covid. Feel free to explain the missing twenty odd thousand deaths. The UK extra deaths can clearly be seen in the covid figures, Thailands cannot. 

 

Thailand had 3 THREE times the number of people in critical than the UK. How can that be if Thailand numbers are so low ? 

 

UK tests about 600-800,000 a day - feel free to tell me Thailands numbers

 

End of the day, you test more you find more and you find more variants. people need to stop knocking the UK. These stories just show that if you are honest you are hit the most, maybe the UK should stop all testing and be number 1 for lowest infections !

 

Edited October 24, 2021 by RichardColeman

[Fat is a type of crazy]

Once everyone in a particular country has the ability to get vaccinated then responsibility for deaths moves from the government to the people. Since the large majority of deaths are among the unvaccinated then, if they had a chance to get a shot but didn't, too bad. I am not sure that Thailand has reached that position to say that everyone who wants a shot could get a shot. Probably not, which makes the leaders still liable, if there are significant deaths from opening up. 

There are new questions about booster shots but once a leader can say, you had the chance to get vaccinated but chose not to, then your bad luck if they open up and you get badly sick or die. 

Edited October 24, 2021 by Fat is a type of crazy

[WhiteBuffaloATM]

“Cases” were only ever relevant with centralized systematic test -trace- isolate programs in small advanced countries, generating accurate statistical projections & sound mathematical conclusions to inform govt. anti-covid measures. S. Korea/ England / Sweden / Netherlands examples. Case figures in third world countries are near useless by comparison.

[Virt]

Numbers might rise in Thailand, but since all tourists are vaccinated and a large part of the Thais too, it probably means most will have no need for hospitals.

 

Here in Denmark 85 % of people above age 12 are vaccinated and we're currently seeing quite a rise in numbers of positive after we have been fully open for a few moths, with no restrictions.

It's most likely due to fall and the winter will most likely give us even higher number of positives.

Another reason could be the ones that had their shots 7 to 10 Months ago, have lower protection now, so we also started getting booster shots.

 

But no pressure yet on the hospitals, so the vaccines do their job and show it's possible to live in a fully open society with no restrictions so far.

 

This winter will show if it's possible to live with COVID in a fully open society, if the majority are vaccinated.

 

I would guess that Thailand has fewer problems with cold seasons, so they should have less problems after opening up, if the majority are vaccinated.

 

 

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

End of the day, you test more you find more and you find more variants. people need to stop knocking the UK.

Just for the record, I wasn't knocking the UK, just asking the question on what do we anticipate will happen when Thailand and Australia opens up, e.g. Australia or most of it is 80% doubled vaccinate, Thailand way off of those figures, as I believe last count was something like 42% double vaccinated.

[ikke1959]

According to The Netherlands Thailand is a high risk country... so if there are tourists coming or not coming doesn't matter.. The figures are manipulated already and will still be done, because in Thailand everything must be a succes.. Look at the Sandbox in Phuket.. More cases not because of the tourists, but because of the low quality vaccines, the Thai mentality of not worrying, and the so called low numbers all the time.. 

[Kadilo]

Yes there will inevitably be more cases as the country opens up but the key numbers are the number of serious cases in hospital and sadly deaths. 
 

As long as the vaccination program continues to be effective and the number of deaths remains relatively low as a result, then the country should fully open up. 

[CharlieH]

Humans will do what they have always done, adjust adapt and overcome. It will be part of out lives for awhile to come, that doesnt mean it shoukd cripple our lives.Accept it for what it is and get back to life as normal as we can and open and resume LIVING !

[JCP108]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Since March this year, there have been 40,000 extra Thai deaths above the normal - or excess deaths.

Yet Thailand has only declared 18,000 deaths for covid. Feel free to explain the missing twenty odd thousand deaths. The UK extra deaths can clearly be seen in the covid figures, Thailands cannot. 

 

Thailand had 3 THREE times the number of people in critical than the UK. How can that be if Thailand numbers are so low ? 

 

UK tests about 600-800,000 a day - feel free to tell me Thailands numbers

 

End of the day, you test more you find more and you find more variants. people need to stop knocking the UK. These stories just show that if you are honest you are hit the most, maybe the UK should stop all testing and be number 1 for lowest infections !

 

Hail to Richard for pointing to the fundamental issue! We can't debate numbers in Thailand when they are being hidden and manipulated to the point of being invalid and useless. It renders this survey and subsequent discussion mostly moot. 

[arithai12]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Since March this year, there have been 40,000 extra Thai deaths above the normal - or excess deaths.

Yet Thailand has only declared 18,000 deaths for covid. Feel free to explain the missing twenty odd thousand deaths. The UK extra deaths can clearly be seen in the covid figures, Thailands cannot. 

 

Thailand had 3 THREE times the number of people in critical than the UK. How can that be if Thailand numbers are so low ? 

 

UK tests about 600-800,000 a day - feel free to tell me Thailands numbers

 

End of the day, you test more you find more and you find more variants. people need to stop knocking the UK. These stories just show that if you are honest you are hit the most, maybe the UK should stop all testing and be number 1 for lowest infections !

 

If we want to discuss whether the numbers published in Thailand are realistic or not, then it is obvious that since the testing carried out here is basically contact-tracing, the number of infections is very underestimated. I personally know several persons who developed the symptoms, did not go for testing, isolated themselves for a week or so, were fine again. But specifically to your points:

 

Counting  excess deaths (link?) from a given date is incorrect, because the virus takes in most cases a significant time (weeks to months) to reach the terminal stages, so the "excess" should be distributed to the period before the deaths are counted.

 

People in critical: ditto, UK has acute awareness and people will get tested early, thus avoiding ICU in a larger proportion. Also, UK has started their vaccination campaign much much earlier, thus cutting down the terminal situations experienced at present.  If we really want to split hairs, then we should also consider that in a lot of countries the covid deaths are actually "with" and not "of", in other words significantly overestimated, not the least for financial interests. In extreme cases (NY, USA), they counted as covid deaths also people without the virus (eg car crash patient who could not be attended to since doctors were busy on the more lucrative covid cases). In Belgium they were counting as covid any death in a retirement home, regardless of the cause. And we should also consider that the death of an 80 year old with  underlying conditions should not be counted in the same bin as that of an  healthy 40 year old. 

 

In summary: the whole statistics is a giant mess, and it's basically impossible to compare one country to another. Also, we are led by the nose with figures which are often irrelevant (eg, number of asymptomatic cases placed in field hospitals for 2 weeks creating unnecessary overcrowding). 

 

The only thing that matters is to vaccinate, take some precautions, and live with it.

Edited October 24, 2021 by arithai12

[arithai12]

8 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Hail to Richard for pointing to the fundamental issue! We can't debate numbers in Thailand when they are being hidden and manipulated to the point of being invalid and useless. It renders this survey and subsequent discussion mostly moot. 

The survey is not about whether we believe in the numbers.

The survey itself is badly stated, because there is no definition of what constitutes "Covid cases". Infections? Then which ones, asymptomatic or mild or serious. ICU? Deaths?  

 

As for the post that you hail, it is also mixing apples and oranges.

[JCP108]

51 minutes ago, arithai12 said:

 

The survey itself is badly stated, because there is no definition of what constitutes "Covid cases". Infections? Then which ones, asymptomatic or mild or serious. ICU? Deaths?  

 

Agree.

[placeholder]

15 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Since March this year, there have been 40,000 extra Thai deaths above the normal - or excess deaths.

Yet Thailand has only declared 18,000 deaths for covid. Feel free to explain the missing twenty odd thousand deaths. The UK extra deaths can clearly be seen in the covid figures, Thailands cannot. 

 

Thailand had 3 THREE times the number of people in critical than the UK. How can that be if Thailand numbers are so low ? 

 

UK tests about 600-800,000 a day - feel free to tell me Thailands numbers

 

End of the day, you test more you find more and you find more variants. people need to stop knocking the UK. These stories just show that if you are honest you are hit the most, maybe the UK should stop all testing and be number 1 for lowest infections !

 

If you compare the performance of the UK, which has just about abolished all rules related to covid, you'll find that it's doing worse than other large European nations in respect to mortality which have been much more conservative re relaxing the rules.

[ozimoron]

Singapore and the UK are showing the world what happens when you open up with too low a vaccination rate. And 38% of people here somehow think that the economy will thrive with a high case load if only we will open up?

[sirineou]

Of course it will mean more covid case. More people equals more cases. 

But regardless, it is time to open. 

 

[Skallywag]

Likely everyone will get Covid eventually, but it will be just like getting a mild flu if you are vaccinated, so what is the point in even counting "cases" anymore? 

Publishing deaths from those who are unvaccinated would be beneficial to some who are still on the fence likely.

Once everyone who wants the vaccine gets it, nothing you can do but move on, open up etc...