Omicron may become dominant variant with its high transmissibility – Dr. Yong Poovorawan

[Danderman123]

16 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

For a start it is random but viruses tend to get weaker and more infectious not the the other way round.. it's basic micro biology.

 

Apparently, you flunked microbiology.

 

Remember the Delta variant? It wasn’t weaker than previous versions of the virus.

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Apparently, you flunked microbiology.

 

Remember the Delta variant? It wasn’t weaker than previous versions of the virus.

It's depressing that the virus naysayers tend not to do even a modicum of research before spouting lies all over the net. It's almost as if they disdain science.

[Sanookmike]

7 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Wrong.

"Delta is believed to be more than twice as contagious as previous variants, and studies have shown that it may be more likely than the original virus to put infected people in the hospital."

 

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid

 

This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext

 

Study suggests Delta more than doubles death risk

 

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/study-suggests-delta-more-than-doubles-death-risk

 

Canadian research into COVID-19 variants found a person with Delta is almost twice as likely as someone with the Alpha variant to be hospitalised.

They are one-and-a-half times as likely to die.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-21/doherty-institute-vaccine-covid-modelling-delta-outbreaks/100477998

 

 

7 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Apparently, you flunked microbiology.

 

Remember the Delta variant? It wasn’t weaker than previous versions of the virus.

 

6 hours ago, ozimoron said:

It's depressing that the virus naysayers tend not to do even a modicum of research before spouting lies all over the net. It's almost as if they disdain science.

Same goes for you guys and apparently you can't read either...

 

I said it's "random but generally".. it can go the other way and become more deadly but what I said was correct. Scientists expect covid to disappear eventually just like the sars outbreak we had.

[ozimoron]

10 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

 

 

Same goes for you guys and apparently you can't read either...

 

I said it's "random but generally".. it can go the other way and become more deadly but what I said was correct. Scientists expect covid to disappear eventually just like the sars outbreak we had.

What about your troll comment, it's "basic" microbiology. You are just using weasel words to claim you qualified your statement when you didn't. In fact, scientists expect it may never go away just like the flu.

 

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/covid-will-likely-shift-from-pandemic-to-endemic

[Sanookmike]

8 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

What about your troll comment, it's "basic" microbiology. You are just using weasel words to claim you qualified your statement when you didn't. In fact, scientists expect it may never go away just like the flu.

 

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/covid-will-likely-shift-from-pandemic-to-endemic

The process I described is basic micro biology there was no attempt to "troll" anyone. 

 

It may never go away like flu but it will become a nothing illness like flu, which has been my point all along. 

 

What about every vairant between D and O?, Have they spread and killed everyone. 

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

The process I described is basic micro biology there was no attempt to "troll" anyone. 

 

It may never go away like flu but it will become a nothing illness like flu, which has been my point all along. 

 

What about every vairant between D and O?, Have they spread and killed everyone. 

I'm not going to argue about this but your use of the phrase "basic microbiology" was demeaning to the person you were replying to. Use better forum decorum in future if you don't want to be misunderstood. The fact is that's far from basic and far from a given that it will become less virile. Nobody knows, you are entitled to your opinion but in the end it's only that and you failed to provide any links to back up your assertion which further alienates others who expect that you provide them.

[Sanookmike]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I'm not going to argue about this but your use of the phrase "basic microbiology" was demeaning to the person you were replying to. Use better forum decorum in future if you don't want to be misunderstood. The fact is that's far from basic and far from a given that it will become less virile. Nobody knows, you are entitled to your opinion but in the end it's only that and you failed to provide any links to back up your assertion which further alienates others who expect that you provide them.

Agreed you are entitled to your opinion too, I never meant it to be demeaning.. Basic was the keyword to take note of and stand by what I said, that is the general progression of a virus. 

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, Sanookmike said:

Agreed you are entitled to your opinion too, I never meant it to be demeaning.. Basic was the keyword to take note of and stand by what I said, that is the general progression of a virus. 

If you believe that is the general progression of a coronavirus then why not provide any links to scientific research or evidence to support your argument? This failure is the most egregious element of your argument, can you not see that?

[Rhys]

The Knowlegeable Tourism and Sports PM says it is fine...

[spidermike007]

Total nonsense from a doctor who appears to be poorly informed. If anything this new variant appears to be milder than delta. Just another publicity seeking scare mongerer. Lock him up! 

 

Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, Paul Kelly, also said in a recorded message that there wasn’t any indication that the Omicron variant was more deadly than other strains: “Of the over 300 cases that have now been diagnosed in many countries, they have all been very mild or in fact had no symptoms at all.”

 

https://fortune.com/2021/12/02/gsk-who-jpmorgan-scientists-omicron-more-dangerous-other-covid-19-variants/

[spidermike007]

13 hours ago, Kadilo said:

Ok. Your  regular “it’s gonna get bad” type posts suggest otherwise despite no real data yet being published and early indications from the UK that the vaccines will offer some protection. 
 

For me the time for concern will be once the number of patients in ICU “sky rocket” and deaths follow. Neither which as yet has happened anywhere. 
 

Far too early for all the scaremongering rhetoric being written and for people being scared. 

Thanks. A voice of reason in the apocalyptic zombie wilderness of fear and panic. Nothing points toward this new variant being more harsh or deadlier than Delta. In fact this new variant might be a great thing, if it is indeed milder. Might be showing Covid to be tapering off, finally. 

 

[Sanookmike]

"

35 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

If you believe that is the general progression of a coronavirus then why not provide any links to scientific research or evidence to support your argument? This failure is the most egregious element of your argument, can you not see that?

"SARS-CoV-2, of course, is well past the teetering stage. The big question now is: What happens next? One popular theory, endorsed by some experts, is that viruses often start off harming their hosts, but evolve toward a more benign coexistence. After all, many of the viruses we know of that trigger severe problems in a new host species cause mild or no disease in the host they originally came from. And from the virus’s perspective, this theory asserts, hosts that are less sick are more likely to be moving around, meeting others and spreading the infection onward.

“I believe that viruses tend to become less pathogenic,” says Burtram Fielding, a coronavirologist at the University of the Western Cape, South Africa. “The ultimate aim of a pathogen is to reproduce, to make more of itself. Any pathogen that kills the host too fast will not give itself enough time to reproduce.” If SARS-CoV-2 can spread faster and further by killing or severely harming fewer of the people it infects, we might expect that over time, it will become less harmful — or, as virologists term it, less virulent."

 

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-viruses-evolve-180975343/

[Jeffr2]

14 hours ago, Kadilo said:

Ok. Your  regular “it’s gonna get bad” type posts suggest otherwise despite no real data yet being published and early indications from the UK that the vaccines will offer some protection. 
 

For me the time for concern will be once the number of patients in ICU “sky rocket” and deaths follow. Neither which as yet has happened anywhere. 
 

Far too early for all the scaremongering rhetoric being written and for people being scared. 

My regular "it's going to get bad" are based on what leading scientists are saying.  Especially considering the sky rocketing cases in Africa.  Hospitals in many parts of the world are already overflowing with covid cases.  If Omicron is more transmissible, which they think it is, then more will get infected, more will end up in the hospital, and those with weakened immune systems might die.

 

No scaremongering here.  I back up my comments with links to articles.  Like this one.  As we know, deaths lag a bit, but they think this variant isn't as deadly.  Either way, hospitalizations are sky rocketing in SA.  Not good.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/03/africa/south-africa-omicron-cases-surge-intl/index.html

South Africa Covid-19 cases have quadrupled since Tuesday, with Omicron fueling the surge

South Africa's Covid-19 cases have nearly quadrupled in the last four days, underscoring concerns around how contagious the new coronavirus Omicron variant might be as the country enters its fourth wave of the pandemic.

 

On Friday, South Africa reported on 16,055 new Covid-19 cases, up from 4,373 new cases on Tuesday.

[Jeffr2]

11 hours ago, Mr Derek said:

The flu viruses you mention were not eradicated by human agency. They morphed into oblivion on their own. (Smallpox is no comparison - flu is universal and air travel nowadays carries it around the whole globe faster than bad news.)

 

If you really believe a flu virus can be eradicated by human effort you are gravely mistaken. Even 100% vaccination is useless given that the virus can and will mutate (and you claim above that it can mutate into something more deadly). Moreover, as we all know, vaccination doesn't prevent anyone contracting the virus or passing it on. 100% compliance in social distancing? Seriously? You expect everyone to live in hermetically sealed chambers forever?  All it takes is a tiny loophole (or a gap at the edge of a mask) and a virus will spread like osmosis.

 

Individuals can behave prudently to minimise their risk (I certainly do), but humanity can't run and hide forever. Well, fortunately, they don't need to. Covid is morphing itself into nothing more serious than ordinary flu, just like Spanish flu. I don't know if that process is over yet, but the doctor in South Africa who discovered omicron has been clear that all cases are mild to asymptotic.  

 

 

The flu virus kills hundreds of thousands a year.  It's a serious concern.  And thus, many get shots every year for it.  But yes, we live with it.

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, Sanookmike said:

 

 

Same goes for you guys and apparently you can't read either...

 

I said it's "random but generally".. it can go the other way and become more deadly but what I said was correct. Scientists expect covid to disappear eventually just like the sars outbreak we had.

I've not read a scientist yet that's said covid will eventually disappear.  In one form or another, it will be around for the rest of our lives.  Just like variations of the Spanish flu are still here today.

[Bkk Brian]

Little doubt Omicron is more transmissible now:

 

Norway is seeing the world’s first omicron superspreader event after a party downtown Oslo last Friday. Of 120 healthy non-symptomatic fully vaccinated individuals with a negative test, two had recently returned from South Africa and turned out to be positive, omicron. 1/

 

Now some 80-90 of the 120 are PCR pos, 13 of these confirmed omicron, the rest waiting for sequencing results. Some of those infected w omicron were not at the party but present at the same restaurant that evening. Not looking good re transmissibility.

https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1466875096212119556

 

Omicron outbreak at Norway Christmas party is biggest outside S. Africa -authorities

 

"This party has been a super spreader event," Preben Aavitsland, a senior physician at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, told Reuters by email.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/omicron-outbreak-norway-christmas-party-is-biggest-outside-s-africa-authorities-2021-12-03/

[TKDfella]

14 hours ago, ozimoron said:

There is no data as yet to suggest how mild omicron is or is not. Your use of loaded terms like misguided and futile show you to be an anti vaxxer. Like polio, smallpox, sars, mers and the spanish flu, eradication is far from futile. It must remain the goal. One certain way to eradicate it is for 100% compliance in vaccinations, masks and social distancing. There will be a newer vaccines developed which are more effective but those we have will buy us time and may even prevent the mutations you are asking about.

Polio and Smallpox are not zoonotic whereas Sars and Flu are. So Sars has a much bigger pool of hosts than does Polio, hence can stay around for much longer.

[placnx]

21 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Yeah. It's a lagging indicator. By a few weeks. But the increase in hospitalizations is kinda scary.

BBC today was saying that there were a lot of children hospitalized, in South Africa I believe. Presumably they were not vaccinated.

[placnx]

20 hours ago, Mr Derek said:

Isn't it counter-evolutionary for a virus to kill its host? Is it not therefore a fair assumption that a virus will evolve to be more compatible with its host? I assume this is what has been happening all along and I have predicted something like the omicron variant since the beginning. Therefore it's appearance is the best news possible. Given that this one appears to be very mild (okay, give it a while to be sure), then surely the strategy should be to let it spread, stop vaccination, and switch the focus to natural immunity.

Someone pointed out the case of AIDS which will kill the host, but only after a long time. In the meantime, they may have spread it to many others (if promiscuous).

[placnx]

17 hours ago, Mr Derek said:

The flu viruses you mention were not eradicated by human agency. They morphed into oblivion on their own. (Smallpox is no comparison - flu is universal and air travel nowadays carries it around the whole globe faster than bad news.)

 

If you really believe a flu virus can be eradicated by human effort you are gravely mistaken. Even 100% vaccination is useless given that the virus can and will mutate (and you claim above that it can mutate into something more deadly). Moreover, as we all know, vaccination doesn't prevent anyone contracting the virus or passing it on. 100% compliance in social distancing? Seriously? You expect everyone to live in hermetically sealed chambers forever?  All it takes is a tiny loophole (or a gap at the edge of a mask) and a virus will spread like osmosis.

 

Individuals can behave prudently to minimise their risk (I certainly do), but humanity can't run and hide forever. Well, fortunately, they don't need to. Covid is morphing itself into nothing more serious than ordinary flu, just like Spanish flu. I don't know if that process is over yet, but the doctor in South Africa who discovered omicron has been clear that all cases are mild to asymptotic.  

 

 

First of all, we may eventually get a vaccine that is more effective regardless of variants. Also, Spanish flu was the 1918 Pandemic -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

 

Several people (especially Jeffr2) have looked at the South African doctor's claim and regard it as insufficient to show whether this variant will be mild as it spreads to more vulnerable populations.

 

[placnx]

4 hours ago, TKDfella said:

Polio and Smallpox are not zoonotic whereas Sars and Flu are. So Sars has a much bigger pool of hosts than does Polio, hence can stay around for much longer.

You make a very good point about zoonotic viruses having persistence. Fortunately we are starting to get technology to rapidly develop vaccines to suppress outbreaks. This SARS2 is exceptional in that it spreads under the radar, so is difficult to eradicate without universal vaccination.

[Sanookmike]

14 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

I've not read a scientist yet that's said covid will eventually disappear.  In one form or another, it will be around for the rest of our lives.  Just like variations of the Spanish flu are still here today.

It was the the theory at the start of the pandemic, now its looking to stay around like flu. 

 

My point it that it will mutate into a nothing illnesses and we will live with it like flu. Which is what we should be doing now.

 

Also turns out that immunity itself it not the same between each country, it's about imprints. So rising cases in SA doesn't mean much for the UK etc.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/03/calm-omicron-uks-immunity-different-south-africas-says-expert/

 

You can bypass the need to subscribe to read by stopping the page loading once you see the text and before the subscription box come up ????

[Jeffr2]

Omicron will become the dominant variant.  That's been proven.  As well as it's higher transmission rate.  To be decided is if it's more deadly.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-chief-scientist-says-omicron-quite-infectious-must-not-panic-2021-12-03/

 

Omicron highly infectious, S.African cases doubling every day

Swaminathan says not clear yet whether Omicron is milder

Vaccine may not need to be adapted for Omicron

[scorecard]

47 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Omicron will become the dominant variant.  That's been proven.  As well as it's higher transmission rate.  To be decided is if it's more deadly.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-chief-scientist-says-omicron-quite-infectious-must-not-panic-2021-12-03/

 

Omicron highly infectious, S.African cases doubling every day

Swaminathan says not clear yet whether Omicron is milder

Vaccine may not need to be adapted for Omicron

Keep in mind that globally many well qualified/well experienced/well recognized virus/epidemiology experts are saying that it's not as bad as first thought.

 

Yes infections (to be expected), available global data showing most infected are not as ill compared to Delta, less numbers needing ventilators etc, and less deaths. 

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, scorecard said:

Keep in mind that globally many well qualified/well experienced/well recognized virus/epidemiology experts are saying that it's not as bad as first thought.

 

Yes infections (to be expected), available global data showing most infected are not as ill compared to Delta, less numbers needing ventilators etc, and less deaths. 

But they all qualify that with "we don't know yet".

[scorecard]

10 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

But they all qualify that with "we don't know yet".

Of course, obvious point, also obvious there may be more variants in the future.

 

But let's not wind it up unnecessarily and frighten people. 

 

 

[Jeffr2]

This is frightening.  Look at the crazy increase in high care and ICU admissions.  Not good.

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, scorecard said:

Keep in mind that globally many well qualified/well experienced/well recognized virus/epidemiology experts are saying that it's not as bad as first thought.

 

Yes infections (to be expected), available global data showing most infected are not as ill compared to Delta, less numbers needing ventilators etc, and less deaths. 

However it is to be expected that in those cases being found globally and actually identified as Omicron the majority of those have been in vaccinated people and so it would be expected to be milder.

 

However its also unfortunate that in SA region where the majority have not been vaccinated and currently where the majority of cases are, the hospital and ICU admissions are surging so labeling it mild there is not true.

 

What is becoming clearer is the R value which is now showing evidence its higher than Delta. If that really turns out to be the case then that is indeed very worrying.

[Rimmer]

An off topic troll post has been removed

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

However it is to be expected that in those cases being found globally and actually identified as Omicron the majority of those have been in vaccinated people and so it would be expected to be milder.

 

However its also unfortunate that in SA region where the majority have not been vaccinated and currently where the majority of cases are, the hospital and ICU admissions are surging so labeling it mild there is not true.

 

What is becoming clearer is the R value which is now showing evidence its higher than Delta. If that really turns out to be the case then that is indeed very worrying.

There are reports of Omicron spreading to patients already in hospital for other reasons including ICU wards, so although the numbers of positive cases is increasing in hospitals it doesn't necessarily mean the Omicron variant is the cause of increased hospitalisations same with the number of kids in hospital with covid they got infected whilst in hospital for other reasons so this could be a reason for the increase in covid numbers in hospital.