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Posted
6 minutes ago, lkn said:

The point isn’t about how long it can run, it is about the lack of value being created, so on average, nobody is making any money with crypto, even though it can go on forever, we are just moving money from one person to another

I think you just described the central banking system since we came off the gold standard.

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, ukrules said:

I think you just described the central banking system since we came off the gold standard.

Care to elaborate?

Posted
1 hour ago, lkn said:

Many coins have already gone to zero. But I am also skeptical that all will go to zero, as we have also seen obvious scam coins go through several pump and dump phases. The supply of greater fools is almost infinite, but as it is not actually infinite, continuous growth is impossible.

 

The question is basically just how long this can be dragged out via wash trading, unbacked stable coins, staking schemes that keep people from cashing out, and people who will continue to be in denial, and still pour money into crypto, look e.g. at SafeMoon, it reached ATH in April of last year, but people still pour money into it, and the SafeMoon subreddit is full of optimistic people that try to talk up the coin.

Point? 

 

1 hour ago, lkn said:

And this goes back to what you seem to have a problem with. If I bought SafeMoon in April of last year, did I already lose my money, or are they first lost when I sell at a loss? My view is that when you buy something that has no value, you lose your money, but maybe you can recover some or all of your loss, by finding a greater fool. Though this part is irrelevant to the points that have been made.

My view is that it is not possible to buy something that has no value. That someone will pay money for something means it has value, and it has value as long as anyone is willing to buy it. 

 

That is where your argument fails, and why your Brooklyn Bridge analogy was so ridiculous.  

 

 

1 hour ago, lkn said:

Regarding going on indefinitely, there are several multi-level marketing companies that have existed for decades, e.g. Amway has existed for something like 50 years. If you look at their numbers, the median earnings among the top 10% is $4,402. That is pretty lousy, and that is top 10%, now imagine how much the bottom 90% make? Probably many of them lose money.

Amway it still in business, yes? A lot of people make good money because of it, yes?

 

1 hour ago, lkn said:

Amway is not a zero-sum game per se, so in that respect it is actually better than crypto, but crypto could end up being something like Amway, and probably already is, i.e. a few on the top make money, majority lose money, but for unknown reasons, they keep pouring money into crypto/Amway products.

So it can go on indefinitely, yes? So it goes for another year or twenty or a hundred. A lot of people are making a lot of money. That it is likely a lot of people will at some point lose money makes no difference to the people that are making money. 

 

If I sell Apple, and  they go bankrupt an hour later, do I owe whomever bought it anything?

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Posted
1 hour ago, lkn said:

You are buying a share of Apple’s cashflow. The share price for Apple has historically been priced around 15 times earnings, but after they have entered services and shown that they can not just keep subscribers (guaranteed repeated revenue) but have also consistently grown it, investors are now willing to pay around 30 times earnings for a share of this cashflow, as they are now convinced that Apple is here to stay (15 times earning has always been a low valuation of Apple).

 

If Apple goes up 10% in a week (I don’t think that has actually happened, but let’s just assume) then it is generally because they showed much better earnings than expected, i.e. their cashflow increased, or possibly, that rumors/supply chain leaks indicate more demand than expected for their products, or even new products in the pipeline). There are also macroeconomic factors, e.g. initially we all thought that COVID-19 shutdown would cause people to stop buying Apple products, because all their stores had to close, and Apple also warned about not meeting their guidance wrt. earnings because of supply chain disruption in China, so the stock fell in price, because suddenly the cashflow we bought was expected to decrease. Of course once they started to release numbers for how much they actually sold during COVID-19, people saw that their cashflow had only increased (with record breaking sales), and so, the stock went up accordingly.

 

There is of course an element of speculation with certain stocks, e.g. if I buy Coca Cola, I pretty much know what their earnings will be, so their cashflow is pretty consistent, and so is their stock price, but if I buy Apple, I may expect them to introduce AR/VR googles or a car, and therefore I overpay for their share, compared to current earnings/cashflow, because I expect the cashflow to increase, and I know, once they actually have released the AR/VR googles and we can see how well they sell, it is too late to get a discount on this future cashflow.

 

Remember cashflow is what gives us earnings per share and what funds my quarterly dividend from holding Apple shares, or the share buybacks, that increase my ownership ratio in their cashflow.

 

Now, please explain to me what fundamentals cause Bitcoin to go up and down!

 

So why is Tesla's P/E i.e. "cashflow" worth 20 times Apples? 

 

I can remember when no one would buy anything with a P/E over 15 and now people will buy when the P/E is NA

 

Fundamentals, that's hilarious

 

Incidentally, the Dow increased over 15% in one day, what "fundamentals" drove that? 

 

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

My view is that it is not possible to buy something that has no value

So why do we have regulation, oversight, and consumer protection? People buy demonstrably worthless stuff all the time. Against stupidity the very gods themselves contend in vain.

10 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Amway it still in business, yes? A lot of people make good money because of it, yes?

Still in business, but I certainly wouldn’t consider it “making good money”, as I quoted, the top 10% has a median income of less than $4,500/year. And that is the number from Amway themselves, if you go by the FTC numbers then they found that “less than 1% of MLM participants profit” where the rate for a legitimate small business is 39%.

 

My point was that you can have these schemes, where tens of thousands of people are losing money year over year, and it can go on for decades. So in that respect, I do unfortunately believe you might be right that crypto can go on for a very long time.

 

I personally think these things are bad for our society, but I guess you don’t.

 

24 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

If I sell Apple, and  they go bankrupt an hour later, do I owe whomever bought it anything?

If you buy stock in a company which took steps to hide or simply withhold information that would have told you that they were about to go out of business then the CEO and board of directors will be liable for your loss.

 

You will of course have to fight them in court, but this happens, we just had Elizabeth Holmes convicted of conspiracy to defraud Theranos investors, and before that, we had Trevor Milton (Nikola founder) indicted for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business’.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, lkn said:

So why do we have regulation, oversight, and consumer protection? People buy demonstrably worthless stuff all the time. Against stupidity the very gods themselves contend in vain.

Why do we have people getting all tatted up and thinking the world is ending because of plastic bags?

 

10 minutes ago, lkn said:

Still in business, but I certainly wouldn’t consider it “making good money”, as I quoted, the top 10% has a median income of less than $4,500/year. And that is the number from Amway themselves, if you go by the FTC numbers then they found that “less than 1% of MLM participants profit” where the rate for a legitimate small business is 39%.

I was talking about the people running it, not the suckers selling it. 

 

 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

So why is Tesla's P/E i.e. "cashflow" worth 20 times Apples? 

More whataboutism…

 

But since you ask, it is because some people think Tesla will soon earn 10 times as much as they currently do. This is somewhat consistent with Tesla’s own guidance (50% vehicle sale increase over the next couple of years), and they did have a very good 2021, increasing vehicle deliveries with 87% compared to 2020, so better than their guidance.

 

Personally, I am not bullish on Tesla, but there is clearly a lot of momentum here. No way Apple can increase number of sold iPhones with 50% over the next couple of years, so that is why Tesla trades at a higher P/E, i.e. more likely to grow earnings significantly in the near future.

 

So again, there are actually real stuff that drives this! Sure, fans of Elon Musk are are definitely creating upward pressure on the stock, but if it becomes too extreme, shortsellers will come in and short the stock, because in the short term, the market might be a popularity contest, but in the long term, it is a scale, and hype surrounding a stock will not last forever, if the company does not deliver.

Posted
26 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Incidentally, the Dow increased over 15% in one day, what "fundamentals" drove that? 

You’ll have to tell me the date, and I can look up for you if something happened on that date. But are you still not getting how stocks work? Because I am getting tired of repeating myself.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I was talking about the people running it, not the suckers selling it. 

So you think Amway is a great example of how we can have schemes (like crypto) going on indefinitely, and it is great as long as a handful of people get rich, who cares about the millions of suckers losing money?

Posted
13 minutes ago, lkn said:

My point was that you can have these schemes, where tens of thousands of people are losing money year over year, and it can go on for decades. So in that respect, I do unfortunately believe you might be right that crypto can go on for a very long time.

 

I personally think these things are bad for our society, but I guess you don’t.

I think what's worse for society is the idea that the government can protect people from being stupid. When people make money it is because they are smart. When people lose money it is because they were cheated.

 

13 minutes ago, lkn said:

If you buy stock in a company which took steps to hide or simply withhold information that would have told you that they were about to go out of business then the CEO and board of directors will be liable for your loss.

 

You will of course have to fight them in court, but this happens, we just had Elizabeth Holmes convicted of conspiracy to defraud Theranos investors, and before that, we had Trevor Milton (Nikola founder) indicted for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business’.

You can't get blood from a turnip. 

 

As I understand it, Holmes was convicted, but not of fraud. 

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I think what's worse for society is the idea that the government can protect people from being stupid. When people make money it is because they are smart. When people lose money it is because they were cheated.

Who brought this up? Why do you need to compare and rank? Again just deflecting…

6 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

You can't get blood from a turnip. 

You can seize whatever assets there is, punish the fraudster, and take steps to make it harder for this person to commit fraud again. E.g. the CEO of Tether is banned from doing business in China because of their past behavior, which should send a strong signal to people who have blind faith in this company. But regardless of how hard it is to recoup your loss, you asked if you sell a stock for a company that goes bankrupt an hour later, if you owe them anything, and I answered that there is a very likely chance you, or whoever was lying about the company’s finances, do owe them something. It is beyond the point whether or not you can actually get it back (which you often can, see e.g. Bernie Madoff, they did get a lot of the money back).

12 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

As I understand it, Holmes was convicted, but not of fraud. 

But she was. Jurors found Holmes guilty of conspiracy to commit fraud against investors and three charges of wire fraud. She was acquitted of defrauding the public. That refers to the people who had paid $10 for a blood test and gotten a wrong diagnosis (or whatever).

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Posted
3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

I thought I did answer it. The money comes from speculators. 

Yes, exactly, if someone made money selling a crypto coin, the money gained, like you said, comes from speculators... who lost money. That is where profit from another person comes from (if not, where?!).

 

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

When I sell a share of Apple and lose or make $20, where does that money go to or come from? 

 

When Apple goes up 10% in a week, what is making it more valuable? 

Yes, but the difference is that Apple is an actual existing company, that offers value and products to its consumers. Although small, it also pays dividends to its shareholders. And the significant expansion and the providing of value to billions of customers over the years, of that existing company, has resulted in the stock price reflecting that expansion. Sure, a certain amount could be speculation, but the rest isn't... and the speculation is based on expectations of Apple releasing new and more innovative products, so the speculation is actually based on something. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

My view is that it is not possible to buy something that has no value. That someone will pay money for something means it has value, and it has value as long as anyone is willing to buy it. 

Value, and perceived value are two different things. Perceived value is what speculation is.

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Amway it still in business, yes? A lot of people make good money because of it, yes?

Amway is a multi-level marketing company. Are you really using that to support your argument? ????

 

Edited by ThLT
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, lkn said:

More whataboutism…

At this point, 3/4 of what Yellowtail posts is whataboutisms. It's becoming a bit ridiculous and tedious.

 

What about Apple, what about Tesla, what about miners, what about people making money selling things about cypto, what about people also scamming people, what about casinos, what about...

Yet, always avoiding the central points of the discussion. And when one whataboutism is addressed, moves on to a new whataboutism.

 

Edited by ThLT
  • Like 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, ThLT said:

Small for new investors, I started buying Apple shares > 10 years ago because of their ridiculous low P/E compared to their earnings potential, so the dividend must have paid for the cost of my shares many times over, and I don’t have to worry that all of Apple (and thus my cashflow) is gone tomorrow because of a tweet, as they actually produce highly desirable products that they sell worldwide with a 40% profit… ????

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

 

Individual cryptos might be finite, but Greater Fools are infinite.

A new crypto comes to market every hour or so now. Just as I was writing my post, WearBear was issued. It's finite, so must be quite valuable. It also has such a cute emoji!  A cute little bear. What's not to like, right? It's current price is hovering around zero, but if it goes to the moon, look out! It'll be biscuits and gravy every night for those of us clever enough to see the opportunity.

Posted
23 hours ago, lkn said:

Who brought this up?

You did. 

 

23 hours ago, lkn said:

You can seize whatever assets there is, punish the fraudster, and take steps to make it harder for this person to commit fraud again. E.g. the CEO of Tether is banned from doing business in China because of their past behavior, which should send a strong signal to people who have blind faith in this company. But regardless of how hard it is to recoup your loss, you asked if you sell a stock for a company that goes bankrupt an hour later, if you owe them anything, and I answered that there is a very likely chance you, or whoever was lying about the company’s finances, do owe them something. It is beyond the point whether or not you can actually get it back (which you often can, see e.g. Bernie Madoff, they did get a lot of the money back).

What does this have to do with you claiming that everyone that has ever purchase crypto has lost all their money? 

 

23 hours ago, lkn said:

But she was. Jurors found Holmes guilty of conspiracy to commit fraud against investors and three charges of wire fraud. She was acquitted of defrauding the public. That refers to the people who had paid $10 for a blood test and gotten a wrong diagnosis (or whatever).

Whatever. Again, what does this have to do with your claim that everyone that has ever purchased crypto has lost all their money? 

Posted
23 hours ago, ThLT said:

Yes, exactly, if someone made money selling a crypto coin, the money gained, like you said, comes from speculators... who lost money. That is where profit from another person comes from (if not, where?!).

 

Yes, but the difference is that Apple is an actual existing company, that offers value and products to its consumers. Although small, it also pays dividends to its shareholders. And the significant expansion and the providing of value to billions of customers over the years, of that existing company, has resulted in the stock price reflecting that expansion. Sure, a certain amount could be speculation, but the rest isn't... and the speculation is based on expectations of Apple releasing new and more innovative products, so the speculation is actually based on something. 

They did not pay dividends for a long time. In any event, what does this have to do with your claim that everyone that has ever purchased crypto has lost all their money?

Posted
23 hours ago, ThLT said:

Value, and perceived value are two different things. Perceived value is what speculation is.

I think it safe to assume you are not able to define either. 

 

I would agree that intrinsic value and perceived value are two different things, but I would not agree that value and perceived  value are two different things.

 

23 hours ago, ThLT said:

Amway is a multi-level marketing company. Are you really using that to support your argument? ????

You brought Amway in to support your argument, remember?  Only after you realized how lame your Brooklyn Bridge argument was do you bring Amway into the discussion. 

 

You crack me up. 

Posted
23 hours ago, ThLT said:

At this point, 3/4 of what Yellowtail posts is whataboutisms. It's becoming a bit ridiculous and tedious.

 

What about Apple, what about Tesla, what about miners, what about people making money selling things about cypto, what about people also scamming people, what about casinos, what about...

Yet, always avoiding the central points of the discussion. And when one whataboutism is addressed, moves on to a new whataboutism.

 

Yes, the central point of the discussion is your claim that everyone that has ever purchased crypto has lost all their money, exactly the same way that everyone that bought the Brooklyn Bridge lost all their money, and kind-of like everyone that sells Amway.

 

 

 

  • Confused 1
Posted
23 hours ago, lkn said:

Small for new investors, I started buying Apple shares > 10 years ago because of their ridiculous low P/E compared to their earnings potential, so the dividend must have paid for the cost of my shares many times over, and I don’t have to worry that all of Apple (and thus my cashflow) is gone tomorrow because of a tweet, as they actually produce highly desirable products that they sell worldwide with a 40% profit… ????

Yes, no doubt the 0.8% yield has doubled many times in the last ten years.

 

You must be holding a lot of it if that's your cash-flow....

 

 

Posted (edited)

It's funny how every single crypto related thread on TV gets completely derailed by a handful of anti-crypto fanatics... To everyone still considering engaging with these "experts", may I suggest you save yourself the trouble? It's truly not worth it.

 

There's some people that get it, and there's some that don't. This was the same with the invention and rise of the printing press, internet, email, mobiles, e-commerce, etc. No matter what happens, these people have dug themselves into their narrative so deep, they will most likely never come around. And that's perfectly ok. There's probably still some old-timers around that claim e-mail can go away anytime now because paper and ink still works.... 

Edited by mjnaus
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Posted
1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

What does this have to do with you claiming that everyone that has ever purchase crypto has lost all their money? 

No one is saying this. ????

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

They did not pay dividends for a long time. In any event, what does this have to do with your claim that everyone that has ever purchased crypto has lost all their money?

It's just an extra positive factoid about Apple stock. Crypto doesn't create value, nor does it pay dividends.

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

I think it safe to assume you are not able to define either. 

Lol. My definition is the same as your source. 

It's not because you don't understand the definition that the definition doesn't exist. ????

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

I would agree that intrinsic value and perceived value are two different things, but I would not agree that value and perceived  value are two different things.

Obviously, value is perceived, but perceived value—that someone believes something is valuable—doesn't mean that something is valuable. But again, you're just diverting the discussion to insignifiant details, and completely ignoring the central points.

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

You brought Amway in to support your argument, remember?  Only after you realized how lame your Brooklyn Bridge argument was do you bring Amway into the discussion. 

 

You crack me up. 

Lol. You can't even follow the discussion itself. You're confusing me for someone else. Ikn brought up Amway and the Brooklyn Bridge. ????

 

If you get mixed up even for this, it's no surprise you're getting other things mixed up. ????
 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Yes, the central point of the discussion is your claim that everyone that has ever purchased crypto has lost all their money, exactly the same way that everyone that bought the Brooklyn Bridge lost all their money, and kind-of like everyone that sells Amway.

Again, I didn't make this claim. 

And again, no one said or is saying that. To claim everyone who has bought crypto has lost money would be completely ridiculous.

 

Clearly, some people have made money with crypto. Some lots. What the central point of the exchange with you, Ikn and I, is that you don't understand what a zero-sum is. That every single dollar earned at a profit buying/selling crypto, comes from someone who has lost those dollars buying/selling crypto at a loss.

Edited by ThLT
Posted
3 hours ago, ThLT said:

You can't even follow the discussion itself. You're confusing me for someone else. Ikn brought up Amway

And @Yellowtail can’t even understand what is being argued. I brought up Amway as an example of a scheme where 99% of people (according to the FTC) makes no money, and yet it has existed for more than half a century. This was in support of him saying that bitcoin is not going away, i.e. I think the same, bitcoin can exist for half a century with 99% of people not making any money, Amway is precedence for that, but it is sad, just sad, and I really hope people get smarter about their money and don’t waste them on stupid stuff like crypto or MLM schemes, but history has taught us that people are easily lured by unrealistic promises of riches…

  • Like 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Yes, no doubt the 0.8% yield has doubled many times in the last ten years.

 

You must be holding a lot of it if that's your cash-flow....

The stock has split twice, so I have 21 more stocks than I initially paid for. And in split-adjusted price, my first share in Apple was bought for about $2.5 and that now gives me a yearly dividend of $0.88.

 

So yes, effectively the dividend has double many times, and yes, I do have a lot of shares today.

 

And you know what? All this money comes from people buying Apple’s products, products that have an extremely high consumer satisfaction rating, so nobody is being cheated here, nor is the money I earned, as an investor in Apple, somebody else’s loss.

  • Like 2
Posted
5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

What does this have to do with you claiming that everyone that has ever purchase crypto has lost all their money? 

Uhm… yeah… that was not really what any of us said. We said that (in a zero-sum game) someone’s profit is another person’s loss. I think we have been over this a dozen times already.

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