The Silent, Vaccinated, Impatient Majority

[cdemundo]

15 hours ago, placeholder said:

Well, actually not. For one thing, his description implicitly posits that the covid variants were pre-existing in the population all along. Not the case. These are mutations. They are novel. They are new.

Second he claims that it's the vaccines that are responsible for the rise of variants because they inhibit the spread of previous versions of the virus. First off, this does nothing to explain why these variants become dominant in unvaccinated populations which is still most of the world. But even in vaccinated populations what drives the success of these variants is the fact they they are more transmissible than the variants that preceded them. It may be true that in a small, way vaccination helps variants compete by inhibiting other competitors.. But overwhelmingly it boils down to the R factor: transmissibility. The Omicron variant is far more transmissible than any other variant. So naturally it's going to outcompete other variants in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.

The point that he got right and that is fundamental is that selection pressure acts upon existing variation in a population.  The variation has to be there first.

What people tend to muddle is that mutation is random with respect to whether it is favorable or harmful to the survival or reproductive success of the virus..

The process of introducing variation to a population (mutation) has to precede in time the selection process.

 

[Lacessit]

17 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

and it has 50 times the covid infection rate of SA. That's it, full stop. Deal with it how u see fit. If you don't like or want to accept the data that's your business.

 

Unless you have some other data sources, and want to share them here, do so.

 

Data sources:

Source weblink

RSA data source weblink

It's not a matter of not liking or not wanting to accept the data, I am just puzzled by it. Something does not compute. It defies logic that RSA should have had so many more deaths, and such a low infection rate of the omicron variant compared to Australia. Especially when South Africa was where the omicron variant originated.

[ozimoron]

17 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

and it has 50 times the covid infection rate of SA. That's it, full stop. Deal with it how u see fit. If you don't like or want to accept the data that's your business.

 

Unless you have some other data sources, and want to share them here, do so.

 

Data sources:

Source weblink

RSA data source weblink

Complete rubbish. You have not even attempted to provide evidence of your claim. There is not a shred of logic or common sense which would dictate that the infection rate of any population is 50 times that of another after adjusting for vaccination rates.

[Chomper Higgot]

8 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

and it has 50 times the covid infection rate of SA. That's it, full stop. Deal with it how u see fit. If you don't like or want to accept the data that's your business and you can take it elsewhere. Unless you have some other data sources, and want to share them here, do so, if not I am done with you.

Data sources:

Source weblink

RSA data source weblink

The first question that arises when presented with a 50 fold discrepancy in infection rates between two nations is ‘Are both data sets accurate and comparable?’.

 

If you wish to argue that the 50 fold discrepancy in infections has some meaning wrt to vaccination efficacy it is for you to first demonstrate the accuracy and compatibility of the data set and then present the rational for correlating the discrepancy to vaccine efficacy.

 

You’ve done neither.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, cdemundo said:

The point that he got right and that is fundamental is that selection pressure acts upon existing variation in a population.  The variation has to be there first.

What people tend to muddle is that mutation is random with respect to whether it is favorable or harmful to the survival or reproductive success of the virus..

The process of introducing variation to a population (mutation) has to precede in time the selection process.

 

Well, he may have stated a general principle correctly, his contention that the vaccines are responsible for the rise of variants was false. He betrayed an utter lack of understanding. But, on the other hand, a profound depth of misunderstanding.

[placeholder]

17 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

and it has 50 times the covid infection rate of SA. That's it, full stop. Deal with it how u see fit. If you don't like or want to accept the data that's your business.

 

Unless you have some other data sources, and want to share them here, do so.

 

Data sources:

Source weblink

RSA data source weblink

Here's another data source from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the world's leading public health research organizations. They clearly don't think much of South Africa's official data:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/south-africa?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

https://www.healthdata.org/

 

As the graph shows, for every death from Covid reported, 2 are not.

You have to be willfully naive not to understand that some countries simply don't have the resources to accurately report on the pandemic. Others suppress data.

[placeholder]

On 1/22/2022 at 2:23 PM, Ryan754326 said:

Where I live (Alberta, Canada) there are more vaccinated in hospitals than unvaccinated. I understand that the vaccinated represent a much higher proportion of the population, so this is not unexpected, but at the end of the day it’s still too many, and it doesn’t really take that many to overload the system in the first place. We were overcrowded long before covid came along, and covid disappearing won’t fix that problem. 
 

 

First off, there are lots of people in hospital with Covid but not because of Covid. They are admitted with other illnesses but test positive for infection. The far more important issue is what percentage of unvaxxed patients are in the ICU. Here's what the rates are for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated:

 

Vaccinated hospital patients outpace the unvaccinated, but it doesn't mean the shots don't work: experts

 

"The former tallied 47 in Alberta Thursday. The latter, 18. 

The numbers are just as imbalanced using proper metrics: 5.2 unvaccinated people per 100,000 are in the ICU. That rate drops to 0.4 with two doses."

 

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/vaccinated-hospital-patients-outpace-the-unvaccinated-but-it-doesn-t-mean-the-shots-don-t-work-experts-1.5730793

 

And the actual disparity is probably even greater given that the elderly, who are more vulnerable, are more likely to be vaccinated

[gamb00ler]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

"The former tallied 47 in Alberta Thursday. The latter, 18. 

The numbers are just as imbalanced using proper metrics: 5.2 unvaccinated people per 100,000 are in the ICU. That rate drops to 0.4 with two doses."

 

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/vaccinated-hospital-patients-outpace-the-unvaccinated-but-it-doesn-t-mean-the-shots-don-t-work-experts-1.5730793

 

And the actual disparity is probably even greater given that the elderly, who are more vulnerable, are more likely to be vaccinated

That article failed to make it absolutely clear about how they determined the rates/100K.  The rate of unvaccinated is give as  5.2/100K. 

 

Is that 100K of the general population ( both vaccinated and unvaccinated) or restricted to 100K from the unvaccinated population? 

 

Since they use the term "proper metrics" I would assume it would be the latter.  Perhaps that's a nit I should have left on the vine.

[placeholder]

Just now, gamb00ler said:

That article failed to make it absolutely clear about how they determined the rates/100K.  The rate of unvaccinated is give as  5.2/100K.  Is that 100K of the general population ( both vaccinated and unvaccinated) or restricted to 100K from the unvaccinated population?  Since they use the term "proper metrics" I would assume it would be the latter.

If it were the case that these figures were a percentage of the general population, which is obviously nuts, the case would be even worse for the unvaccinated since they comprise a minority of the population.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

17 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

and it has 50 times the covid infection rate of SA. That's it, full stop. Deal with it how u see fit. If you don't like or want to accept the data that's your business.

 

Unless you have some other data sources, and want to share them here, do so.

 

Data sources:

Source weblink

RSA data source weblink

It's a well known fact (among some, I guess) that the numbers reported are not accurate.  Especially in countries like SA.  Many countries in Africa don't even report numbers.  and the ones that do, admit they are low.  Just like here in Thailand.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

It's a well known fact (among some, I guess) that the numbers reported are not accurate.  Especially in countries like SA.  Many countries in Africa don't even report numbers.  and the ones that do, admit they are low.  Just like here in Thailand.

Also countries like Russia and Mexico.

[Rimmer]

A baiting post has been removed

[Jeffr2]

42 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Also countries like Russia and Mexico.

Even the US admitted to under counts initially.  They just didn't have enough test kits.

 

Mexico admitted to a big under count.  Russia is a real mess. 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Even the US admitted to under counts initially.  They just didn't have enough test kits.

 

Mexico admitted to a big under count.  Russia is a real mess. 

There are virtually always going to be some limitations on what a country can clinically report. But it's the degree of inaccuracy that's important. I'm not aware that Mexico admitted to a big undercount. In fact, at first it was vehemently denied. It was only thanks to the sleuthing of some young independent investigators that the massive falsehoods behind the official data was uncovered.

[fjb 24]

10 hours ago, ozimoron said:

You have not even attempted to provide evidence of your claim. There is not a shred of logic or common sense which would dictate that the infection rate of any population is 50 times that of another after adjusting for vaccination rates.

 

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

They clearly don't think much of South Africa's official data:

I am so sorry, for i have erred, the infection rate of Australia is/was actually 52.61 times the covid infection rate in S. Africa (7-day rolling avg) on Jan 17 and has since dropped to about 50 times now. I know you don't like the data, you doubt it's veracity and I would challenge you to prove the data as incorrect. Unless/until

 

4,050/77=52.6

Source: Oxford Data/za

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

 

I am so sorry, for i have erred, the infection rate of Australia is/was actually 52.61 times the covid infection rate in S. Africa (7-day rolling avg) on Jan 17 and has since dropped to about 50 times now. I know you don't like the data, you doubt it's veracity and I would challenge you to prove the data as incorrect. Unless/until

 

4,050/77=52.6

Source: Oxford Data/za

 

I don't know why you think that you have successfully responded to the evidence that South Africa's reporting on Covid is seriously defective.

[ozimoron]

5 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

 

I am so sorry, for i have erred, the infection rate of Australia is/was actually 52.61 times the covid infection rate in S. Africa (7-day rolling avg) on Jan 17 and has since dropped to about 50 times now. I know you don't like the data, you doubt it's veracity and I would challenge you to prove the data as incorrect. Unless/until

 

4,050/77=52.6

Source: Oxford Data/za

It is simply illogical that any country has an infection rate 50 times that of another country given similar vaccination rates. Furthermore, we know that Australia has vastly higher rates of vaccination than does South Africa so that means the infection rate in SA would be meany times higher if the data you provided was weighted for infection rates.

[fjb 24]

Au has fared better in covid death rates, just not much as of late.

source weblink refer to attached photo.

[fjb 24]

5 hours ago, ozimoron said:

It is simply illogical that any country has an infection rate 50 times that of another country given similar vaccination rates. Furthermore, we know that Australia has vastly higher rates of vaccination than does South Africa so that means the infection rate in SA would be meany times higher if the data you provided was weighted for infection rates.

As I said previously, something to this effect:

"If you are looking to help the corona virus infect people, few countries on earth do it better than Australia. They have gone from virtually no COVID cases to a massive increase of cases."

I don't make the covid numbers, data, etc at Oxford World of Data, I am simply the bearer of this data. If you can't accept that then contact Oxford and the ZA government and post the data here and try to refute my numbers professionally and with conviction established and corroborated.

[transam]

5 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

As I said previously, something to this effect:

"If you are looking to help the corona virus infect people, few countries on earth do it better than Australia. They have gone from virtually no COVID cases to a massive increase of cases."

I don't make the covid numbers, data, etc at Oxford World of Data, I am simply the bearer of this data. If you can't accept that then contact Oxford and the ZA government and post the data here and try to refute my numbers professionally and with conviction established and corroborated.

The latest variant is way more contagious than the others, the planet is being overrun with it...

[ozimoron]

5 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

As I said previously, something to this effect:

"If you are looking to help the corona virus infect people, few countries on earth do it better than Australia. They have gone from virtually no COVID cases to a massive increase of cases."

I don't make the covid numbers, data, etc at Oxford World of Data, I am simply the bearer of this data. If you can't accept that then contact Oxford and the ZA government and post the data here and try to refute my numbers professionally and with conviction established and corroborated.

The reason is that Australia recently decided to open up to international arrivals without quarantine. The now out of control infections are a direct result of that decision and nothing else.

[fjb 24]

11 minutes ago, transam said:

The latest variant is way more contagious than the others, the planet is being overrun with it...

estimates put the omicron R(value) up to 5 times that of Delta. So of course infections are increasing exponentially down under and many other countries. Au has the 13th highest covid infection rate globally a few days ago. Source weblink

Edited January 23, 2022 by fjb 24

[Lacessit]

3 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

As I said previously, something to this effect:

"If you are looking to help the corona virus infect people, few countries on earth do it better than Australia. They have gone from virtually no COVID cases to a massive increase of cases."

I don't make the covid numbers, data, etc at Oxford World of Data, I am simply the bearer of this data. If you can't accept that then contact Oxford and the ZA government and post the data here and try to refute my numbers professionally and with conviction established and corroborated with something other than your illogical beliefs rhetoric and bias.

Noted you have not answered my post about the illogicality of the numbers.

Either the numbers are not accurate, or vaccination is a total failure. Deaths in Australia vs. RSA say otherwise.

Another poster has put up data which differs from yours substantially.

Permit me to doubt the genetic inheritance of black and white South Africans is so radically different to Australians that it would explain a 50-fold discrepancy in infection cases.

Occam's Razor states the simplest explanation is also the most probable. I'll leave it at that.

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

As I said previously, something to this effect:

"If you are looking to help the corona virus infect people, few countries on earth do it better than Australia. They have gone from virtually no COVID cases to a massive increase of cases."

I don't make the covid numbers, data, etc at Oxford World of Data, I am simply the bearer of this data. If you can't accept that then contact Oxford and the ZA government and post the data here and try to refute my numbers professionally and with conviction established and corroborated.

Our World in Data acknowledges quite explicitly that it depends on its information from official sources. It doesn't address the issue of the reliability of those sources. 

[placeholder]

17 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

As I said previously, something to this effect:

"If you are looking to help the corona virus infect people, few countries on earth do it better than Australia. They have gone from virtually no COVID cases to a massive increase of cases."

I don't make the covid numbers, data, etc at Oxford World of Data, I am simply the bearer of this data. If you can't accept that then contact Oxford and the ZA government and post the data here and try to refute my numbers professionally and with conviction established and corroborated with something other than your illogical beliefs rhetoric and bias.

Good to see you have so much respect for Our World in Data. Here's a chart from them comparing how many tests are done daily per thousand people in Australis vs. South Africa

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/australia

[ozimoron]

 

 

"Various media across Scandinavia and the UK are reporting the emergence of a new Covid variant that is so infectious and spreading so fast that nearly half of all cases in Denmark are now the new mutation, named BA.2, with more than 400 confirmed infections across the UK."

 

https://www.cityam.com/new-covid-variant-is-spreading-like-wildfire-in-scandinavia-ba-2-stealth-mutation-now-half-of-all-coronavirus-cases-in-denmark-and-rapidly-pushing-omicron-aside/

 

[Jeffr2]

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/06/lifting-the-veil-on-thailands-covid-19-success-story/

 

Or perhaps government data is simply understating the scale of the problem.

 

"There is a lot of suspicion about Thailand’s officially reported number of cases, especially because of the way that infections are counted. While total cases are below 3500, Thailand has had more than 300,000 people under surveillance as potential carriers. Some studies show that the presence of COVID-19 antibodies among medical personnel and the general population is higher than what has been officially reported.

 

Another issue is how many tests Thailand performs each day. Thailand’s testing rate sits at only 0.03 tests per thousand people, a relatively low figure compared to other developing countries such as India and Vietnam."

[Rimmer]

A misleading troll post has been removed also a baiting post

[onthedarkside]

A long-running diversionary debate on COVID case and death stats involving Australia and South Africa has more than run its course here, and is relatively off-topic to the main topic of the thread. So posts continuing to argue that issue have been removed, and that diversion is now ended.

 

The thread topic here is about COVID vaccines, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.

 

[Lacessit]

IMO it is impossible to reconcile vaccinated and wilfully unvaccinated. It is exactly the same as the topic of global warming/climate change, a matter of scientific fact against belief.

Changing belief is a Sisyphean  undertaking. 50% of Americans still believe in angels, and 1.4 billion Muslims believe their religion supersedes all others that preceded it.

Anti-vaxxers are very lucky coronavirus has a low death rate. They seem to be oblivious to the danger of long COVID, which affects the unvaccinated disproportionately. It would be interesting to see what would happen to beliefs if a variant with a 40% death rate stopped by.