Are we just going to have to live with unvaccinated people across Thailand?

[ThLT]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

(although it’s possible that this level of protection could fall if it has been several months or more since your booster.)"

 

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/covid-variant#OMIvax

Yes, waning protection. Something that is not being taken into consideration.

 

If vaccines protect you for only 6-9 months, and that protection significantly goes down, are they effective? Sure, during those months, however, the levels after their protection wanes must also be considered.

People saying vaccines are "EXTREMELY effective" aren't doing that, though.

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, ThLT said:

So yes, the vaccines are extremely useful and important for the pandemic, but not "EXTREMELY" efficient. If you do the average of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna and Sinovac, for Omicron, their effectiveness on average are:

 

You are, I suspect intentionally, bringing down the average figures you quote above by including the basement-level Sinovac VE data...

 

Anyone who follows the available scientific and medical data on VE these days would be choosing and getting an mRNA vaccine like Moderna or Pfizer, and those two are becoming increasingly available even in Thailand, because even the government here has begrudgingly had to acquiesce to the real VE data.

 

I'd certainly prefer 100% or close to it. But the VE data from IHME for Moderna and Pfizer against Omicron is pretty good - mid 70%s in preventing severe disease, and mid 40%s in preventing infection in the first place. Hopefully, the next generation of vaccines will have higher VEs.

 

Also, the above VE data remains a very good argument for the continued need of other preventive measures like social distancing and face mask wearing, despite some here claiming the need for such things has passed.

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, ThLT said:

Yes, waning protection. Something that is not being taken into consideration.

 

If vaccines protect you for only 6-9 months, and that protection significantly goes down, are they effective? Sure, during those months, however, the levels after their protection wanes must also be considered.

That's the reason for boosters, currently on a 6 months after schedule for prior Moderna and Pfizer recipients. There's absolutely the ability, even here in Thailand, to keep your tank topped up.

 

[ThLT]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

You are, I suspect intentionally, bringing down the average figures you quote above by including the basement-level Sinovac VE data...

 

Anyone who follows the available scientific and medical data on VE these days would be choosing and getting an mRNA vaccine like Moderna or Pfizer, and those two are becoming increasingly available even in Thailand, because even the government here has begrudgingly had to acquiesce to the real VE data.

If we are talking about the US, yes, that's correct. But right now, the large majority of vaccines administered in Thailand were AstraZeneca and Sinovac. 

So the averages I listed above are much lower for Thailand.

[ThLT]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

That's the reason for boosters, currently on a 6 months after schedule for prior Moderna and Pfizer recipients. There's absolutely the ability, even here in Thailand, to keep your tank topped up.

Sure. But how long are we going to boost the whole 8 billion population of the World? Every 9 months? 

Prominent scientists/epidemiologists are saying that there is a limit to how much you can boost people. 

Obviously, the solution is a better and more effective vaccine (both for reducing illness and transmission). But apparently, people think the vaccines right now are already "EXTREMELY effective." ????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 minutes ago, ThLT said:

If we are talking about the US, yes, that's correct. But right now, the large majority of vaccines administered in Thailand were AstraZeneca and Sinovac. 

So the averages I listed above are much lower for Thailand.

 

I think any farang in Thailand right now, who wants them, ought to be able to obtain Pfizer or Moderna shots for their initial shots, if they haven't already had them, or as boosters if they've already had two of something else.

 

Also, the study data has been very clear -- people NEED that third booster shot in order to gain the best available protection against Omicron. Two shots alone aren't cutting it.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just now, ThLT said:

But apparently, people think the vaccines right now are already "EXTREMELY effective." 

 

You're trying to perpetuate an ongoing argument you've been having with ONE other poster... Let it go. Time to move on.

 

[ThLT]

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I think any farang in Thailand right now, who wants them, ought to be able to obtain Pfizer or Moderna shots for their initial shots, if they haven't already had them, or as boosters if they've already had two of something else.

Sure, but I'm not talking about "any farang in Thailand who wants to get boosted in 2022." I'm talking about Thailand as a population, and the World. The levels of protection against illness and transmission in Thailand are much lower than the averages I mentioned above.

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[ThLT]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

You're trying to perpetuate an ongoing argument you've been having with ONE other poster... Let it go. Time to move on.

The two most prominent posters in the thread consider vaccines (direct quotes from them):

 

Quote

absolutely awesome at protection

Quote

EXTREMELY good

[unblocktheplanet]

Doubt anybody is a Christian Scientist. Seems like the vax decision has been made for us and humanity, for better or worse, is all in this together, sink or swim.

[pedro01]

20 hours ago, ThLT said:

They brought meds (like.... Tylenol?), while you are at home? You consider that "COVID treatment"?

If you need hospital care for COVID, it won't be free. Especially if you end up in the ICU. Thai people aren't paying for expats' and tourists' COVID hospital bill.

 

Why do you think COVID insurance is a requirement for foreigners? Not free.

 

Glass half full arent you? 

 

I dont need round the clock care.

 

I got antivirals, bromhexine, cough mixture, loads of stuff no chance i would take it all.

 

In addition, we are sending o2 readings (they supplied the meters) a few times a day and the offer is there for a pick up to go to the hospital.

 

Mind you, i'm over it now. Perhaps where you are theyd have sent Florence Nightingale.

 

From where i am sitting, exellent care.

Edited February 6, 2022 by pedro01

[TropicalGuy]

3 hours ago, heybruce said:

As has been repeatedly explained:  Vaccines greatly reduce infections.  They don't prevent all infections.  There are a small number of breakthrough infections.  People who have a breakthrough infection can infect others.  That is what Director Walensky said.  Did you listen to the interview so you could here her words in context?

 

It's not that difficult.  However if you are determined to prove the exception is the rule, I suggest you buy lottery tickets.  By your logic, since some people who buy lottery tickets get rich it must be a common thing.

yes and this far less infection of the vaxxed then results automatically in way less transmission by the vaxxed so way less serious cases of the vaxxed and unvaxxed. Which THEN results in minimal Hospital cases, nearly all unvaxxed. ten year old basic science & reason class….

[Bkk Brian]

11 hours ago, heybruce said:

Vaccination with booster is not perfect, but it improves your odds of staying healthy and surviving tremendously.  So yes, vaccines are absolutely awesome at protection. 

Exactly I'm not sure why some continue to argue with this.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Here's another late Jan. 2022 data point from the U.S. CDC on mRNA vaccine effectiveness in preventing/reducing Omicron infections:

 

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm?s_cid=mm7104e2_w

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm?s_cid=mm7104e2_w#T2_down

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[onthedarkside]

It's time for an ongoing bickering feud here chiefly between two members to come to an end, since it's been going on for pages already. Not commenting on the merits of your arguments. Just telling you both, enough is enough. Stop the arguing about terms someone used dozens of posts ago. Any further such bickering will be removed.

 

[ThLT]

19 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Very soon we will have a new vaccine that will be specific for omicron and possibly even universal. Won't that be tremendously awesome? Then we'll be able to get back to life as normal before covid, providing enough people get vaccinated.

Yes, that would be awesome. But that would require vaccinating another 7 billion people with that new vaccine—and would probably require two doses. That would take another year or so of semi-lockdowns and similar authoritarian propositions like the OP of this thread. Except, including everyone who hasn't gotten this new vaccine.

 

However, with Omicron being as much as 400% more contagious than Delta, by then most people would have gotten Omicron, likely survived, and already have natural immunity.

 

So we're kind of stuck with these not-pristinely-effective vaccines at the moment.

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[ozimoron]

5 minutes ago, ThLT said:

Yes, that would be awesome. But that would require vaccinating another 7 billion people with that new vaccine—and would probably require two doses. That would take another year or so of lockdowns and similar authoritarian propositions like the OP of this thread. Except, including everyone who hasn't gotten the likely two shots of this new vaccine.

 

However, with Omicron being 400% more contagious than Delta, by then most people would have gotten Omicron, likely survived, and already have natural immunity.

 

So we're kind of stuck with these not-pristinely-effective vaccines at the moment.

 

Natural immunity from omicron does not stop reinfection. You can't play this both ways.

 

Furthermore, you have absolutely no evidence supporting your claim that a new vaccine would "likely require two doses. That's pure speculation on your part.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/omicron-is-natural-immunity-better-than-a-vaccine/a-60425426

[ThLT]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

Natural immunity from omicron does not stop reinfection. You can't play this both ways.

It does give partial immunity, and protection. ???? Better than having zero immunity and protection.

 

[ozimoron]

1 hour ago, ThLT said:

It does give partial immunity, and protection. ???? Better than having zero immunity.

 

 

 

Partial protection is better than no protection as you acknowledge and that applies to vaccines as well. Until we have no SARS-2 coronavirus we will need vaccines, I think we should all agree on that. Our only chance of eliminating this virus is through vaccines. I think that article implies that natural immunity won't do it and neither will our current vaccines.

 

Both Moderna and BioNTech-Pfizer have started testing Omicron-specific boosters of their vaccines in human clinical trials.

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/omicron-specific-booster-may-not-be-needed-us-monkey-study-finds-2480696

[NanaSomchai]

Just now, ThLT said:

You'll be waiting two years... or ten.

Three seems more realistic.

[ThLT]

8 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Our only chance of eliminating this virus is through vaccines.

There is no chance of eliminating this virus. Not in this decade, at least. Even if everyone gets vaccinated. There will be new variants. Let's hope they get less and less dangerous in severity, and don't make current vaccines obsolete.
 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[ozimoron]

Just now, ThLT said:

There is no chance of eliminating this virus. Not in this decade, at least. Even if everyone gets vaccinated. There will be new variants. Let's hope they get less and less dangerous in severity.

I agree. This article provides some insight for both sides of that argument.

 

https://theconversation.com/will-an-omicron-specific-vaccine-help-control-covid-theres-one-key-problem-175137

Edited February 6, 2022 by ozimoron

[ThLT]

27 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

https://theconversation.com/will-an-omicron-specific-vaccine-help-control-covid-theres-one-key-problem-175137

Yeah. What I was saying. If a "variant-proof vaccine" can be developed, all the better. The virus will probably still exist for the next decade, though, even if the majority of the World population gets vaccinated.

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[onthedarkside]

Numerous posts that involved the prior bickering exchanges I warned against have been removed, as will any further such posts that attempt to continue the same prior bickering.

 

[heybruce]

18 hours ago, ThLT said:

Non-sense. You're as delusional and doing as many mental gymnastics as anti-vaxxers... only on the complete opposite end. 

If what you say were true, countries where there is 70-100% of people vaccinated would have almost no new cases.

 

Take Portugal, with 93% 1 dose, 89% fully vaccinated, and over 50% fully vaccinated and boosted::

Yet, it's one of the countries with the highest number of new cases:

 

 

Delusional. No matter what scientific data is thrown at you. That's what it is. 

Portugal has 10% of its population not fully vaccinated and 50% haven't received boosters.  The graph shows that about to 1/2% of the populations is getting infected daily.  Once the partially vaccinated have been infected the rate of infection will probably drop quickly, as it has in other countries.

 

Your charts do not distinguish between vaccinated and unvaccinated, but there is this:

 

"People who are not vaccinated against Covid-19 have a mortality rate four times higher than those who are vaccinated, according to pulmonologist Filipe Froes."  https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-12-25/unvaccinated-four-more-times-likely-to-die/64320

[heybruce]

13 hours ago, ThLT said:

It does give partial immunity, and protection. ???? Better than having zero immunity and protection.

 

That's the argument for vaccinations.

[heybruce]

17 hours ago, ThLT said:

I know... she didn't say that vaccinations don't reduce infections. What the director of the CDC director did say is:

 

And breakthrough infection or not, your point is completely moot. The only possibility of transmitting the virus while vaccinated... is, by definition, you guessed it, if you are vaccinated. If you aren't vaccinated, the vaccine obviously can't protect you from transmitting the virus, can it? ???? 

You'll probably repeat the same completely illogical argument again, though: ???? "What the CDC director was talking about is breakthrough infections of vaccinated people." Yeah, exactly. 

 

I'll take my guidance from the CDC rather than from some random guy named "heybruce" on an Internet forum. Thanks.

 

Evidently I can not provide a link to the actual CNN Wolf Blitzer-CDC Director Walensky interview on Youtube, but you can find it easily. 

 

From the very beginning they make it clear that they are only talking about breakthrough infections.  Director Walensky makes it clear that breakthrough infections are rare.  Obviously that means vaccines greatly reduce infections.

 

Walensky then explains that a person who has one of these rare breakthrough infections can infect others.  That's no surprise.  That is what she is talking about in your out of context quote.

[pomchop]

Let's say two people are riding in a car....one has on a seatbelt and his side of the car has an airbag....the other person has no seatbelt and no airbag...the car is about to crash.  Gee let me think would i rather be the person with the airbag and seatbelt or the totally unprotected person.  Both MIGHT get seriously injured or hospitalized but the one with protection is MUCH less likely to suffer seriously or die.

 

So as the car speeds along one person is searching on his phone for some obscure internet site saying "but yes some people with seat belts and airbags get seriously hurt or even  DIE", so he concludes that he will not utilize those safety features. 

 

 The other person says yes I am sure you can find a few crackpots who challenge air bag/ seatbelt safety but I will side with the FACTS that have proven over and over that your odds of a more positive outcome are to go with the FACTS.

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to decide which course of action is smarter.

 

[rabang]

I am not going to take a booster shot. I would be surprised if more than 60% took it. It is totally unrealistic to expect everyone to take covid vaccines eternally every 6 months or even a year.

[heybruce]

Vaccines are 51% effective in preventing infection against Omicron, 38% effective if the final vaccination was more than six months ago, and 82% effective at preventing illness among those who are vaccinated and have a booster.   https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2022/02/01/vaccine-effectiveness-in-the-omicron-wave/?sh=63bbacd34ee6

 

I don't mind getting another vaccination/booster every six months.  I get a flu vaccination every year and will get my second Shingles vaccination and the once every ten years hepatitis vaccination tomorrow.  It's better than getting sick, infecting friends and family, and possibly dying.

Edited February 7, 2022 by heybruce