Are we just going to have to live with unvaccinated people across Thailand?

[ThLT]

6 hours ago, heybruce said:

"People who are not vaccinated against Covid-19 have a mortality rate four times higher than those who are vaccinated, according to pulmonologist Filipe Froes."  https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-12-25/unvaccinated-four-more-times-likely-to-die/64320

So? I've already acknowledged that vaccines protect against severe disease multiple times. You keep bringing that up almost every single time you reply.

 

6 hours ago, heybruce said:

That's the argument for vaccinations.

Thanks for posting the obvious, that I agree with, yet again. And, I was talking about natural immunity from Omicron infection.

 

6 hours ago, heybruce said:

From the very beginning they make it clear that they are only talking about breakthrough infections.  Director Walensky makes it clear that breakthrough infections are rare.  Obviously that means vaccines greatly reduce infections.

OMG, you can't get that into your head, can you? Every single case where someone vaccinated gets COVID, that is a breakthrough infection. BY DEFINITION. If you're unvaccinated—and the vaccine vials are in a fridge at a hospital—the vaccine can't protect you against re-infection, can it?

 

If vaccines like Sinovac are only 24% protective against infection, or for Pfizer, 44% protective against infection, it means breakthrough infections can happen in 76% of exposures with COVID for Sinovac, and 36% cases for Pfizer. Which is definitely not "rare."

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by ThLT

[ThLT]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

I don't mind getting another vaccination/booster every six months.  I get a flu vaccination every year and will get my second Shingles vaccination and the once every ten years hepatitis vaccination tomorrow.  It's better than getting sick, infecting friends and family, and possibly dying.

Are you expecting every single person on this planet to do the same as you? And I actually agree with you about the importance of vaccination, by the way. I won't the list of vaccines I've gotten, though.

 

Regarding COVID vaccines, which is the topic being discussed, after a certain point, getting COVID boosters could have little benefit—and even might be detrimental. You do know that, right? 

 

You might want to read this (from the The New York Times):

 

Quote

 

“It’s not unheard-of to give vaccines periodically, but I think there are better ways than doing boosters every six months,” said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University. Other strategies, she said, could “get us out of this forever-boosting kind of a situation.” For starters, persuading people to line up for shots every few months is probably a losing proposition. About 73% of American adults are fully vaccinated, but so far just over a third have opted for a booster.

 

“This doesn’t seem to be a sustainable long-term strategy, for sure,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona. Just as important, there are no data to support the effectiveness of a fourth dose of the current vaccines. 

Will 'Forever Boosting' Beat the Coronavirus - The New York Times

 

So your solution is not a very good one.

[heybruce]

39 minutes ago, ThLT said:

So? I've already acknowledged that vaccines protect against severe disease multiple times. You keep bringing that up almost every single time you reply.

 

Thanks for posting the obvious, that I agree with, yet again. And, I was talking about natural immunity from Omicron infection.

 

OMG, you can't get that into your head, can you? Every single case where someone vaccinated gets COVID, that is a breakthrough infection. BY DEFINITION. If you're unvaccinated—and the vaccine vials are in a fridge at a hospital—the vaccine can't protect you against re-infection, can it?

 

If vaccines like Sinovac are only 24% protective against infection, or for Pfizer, 44% protective against infection, it means breakthrough infections can happen in 76% of exposures with COVID for Sinovac, and 36% cases for Pfizer. Which is definitely not "rare."

 

OMG, you can't get this through your head: breakthrough infections are very rare.  Your own source, the CDC Director interview from August 2021, began with the Director stating so.  In her statement in which she said that vaccines don't prevent infection she was stating that in the rare cases of breakthrough infections the vaccinated people with these infections could infect others.  She had already stated that vaccines greatly reduce the risk of infection.

 

As indicated in an earlier post, vaccination with a booster are 82% effective in preventing infection against Omicron.  Even if Omicron has an R-value between 3 and 5 https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/12/17/22841186/omicron-variant-r-value-number-cases-double, 82% effectiveness will drive the R-value below 1 and stop the spread.  However this will only work if almost everyone gets fully vaccinated and boosted.

Edited February 7, 2022 by heybruce

[heybruce]

20 minutes ago, ThLT said:

Are you expecting every single person on this planet to do the same as you? And I actually agree with you about the importance of vaccination, by the way. I won't the list of vaccines I've gotten, though.

 

Regarding COVID vaccines, which is the topic being discussed, after a certain point, getting COVID boosters could have little benefit—and even might be detrimental. You do know that, right? 

 

You might want to read this (from the The New York Times):

 

Will 'Forever Boosting' Beat the Coronavirus - The New York Times

 

So your solution is not a very good one.

You stated earlier that boosters may lose effectiveness, but you have not provided a source for this claim. 

 

"Just as important, there are no data to support the effectiveness of a fourth dose of the current vaccines. "

 

That's a statement of the obvious, very few people have received a fourth booster and it is too soon to judge the effectiveness.  There is also no data showing a need for a fourth booster for people with a healthy immune system, but here to it is too early to say.

 

Vaccinations and boosters provide a solution.  Do you have an alternative?

Edited February 7, 2022 by heybruce

[ThLT]

On 2/6/2022 at 11:22 PM, heybruce said:

OMG, you can't get this through your head: breakthrough infections are very rare.

"Very rare" is a vague and subjective. As soon as it is quantified, as I did in the post above—that you basically ignored and didn't really address—it is proven to not be accurate.

 

On 2/6/2022 at 11:22 PM, heybruce said:

As indicated in an earlier post, vaccination with a booster are 82% effective in preventing infection against Omicron. 

Do you mean this post? With the more accurate rate of infection based on individual vaccines:

 

 

AstraZeneca: 36%

Sinovac: 24%

Moderna: 48%

Pfizer: 44%

 

Not anywhere close to your supposed 81%, does it?

[ThLT]

7 hours ago, heybruce said:

Your charts do not distinguish between vaccinated and unvaccinated

Yes, but your argument is still invalid. 89% of the population of Portugal is fully vaccinated. And 4% have had one dose, which leaves 7% being unvaccinated. There is also a portion of the population that is young children, with 5-11 year olds starting to get vaccinated just two weeks ago.

 

So out of that remaining 7% of the population that is unvaccinated, how many are unvaxxed adults, which is the topic of this thread? 1-4%, maybe?

 

1-4% accounting for 1-2% daily infection of the population? Impossible. A significant number of vaccinated people are getting infected with Omicron.

 

(You might say, "yes, many of those aren't boosted." This being indicative that being fully vaccinated, and the vaccine, aren't phenomenal at protecting against infection. If your perpetual argument is that you need a booster, and then a second booster, and a third, and a fourth... every 9 months, then those boosters are needed for a reason. Being that the vaccine isn't that good to begin with. Better than nothing, but still not very good.)

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by ThLT

[heybruce]

On 2/6/2022 at 11:41 PM, ThLT said:

 

"Very rare" is a vague and subjective. As soon as it is quantified, as I did in the post above—that you basically ignored and didn't really address—it is proven to not be accurate.

 

Do you mean this post? With the more accurate rate of infection based on individual vaccines:

 

 

AstraZeneca: 36%

Sinovac: 24%

Moderna: 48%

Pfizer: 44%

 

Not anywhere close to your supposed 81%, does it?

 Where did you get the idea that I don't know what a breakthrough infection is?  I am pointing out that your own source starts with the CDC Director stating that breakthrough infections are rare.

 

No, I mean the post that you have already replied to, the one that states:

 

"Vaccines are 51% effective in preventing infection against Omicron, 38% effective if the final vaccination was more than six months ago, and 82% effective at preventing illness among those who are vaccinated and have a booster.  

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndrake/2022/02/01/vaccine-effectiveness-in-the-omicron-wave/?sh=63bbacd34ee6"

[heybruce]

8 minutes ago, ThLT said:

Yes, but your argument is still invalid. 89% of the population of Portugal is fully vaccinated. And 4% have had one dose, which leaves 7% being unvaccinated. There is also a portion of the population that is young children, with 5-11 year olds starting to get vaccinated just two weeks ago.

 

So out of that remaining 7% of the population that is unvaccinated, how many are unvaxxed adults, which is the topic of this thread? 1-4%, maybe?

 

1-4% accounting for 1-2% daily infection of the population? Impossible. A significant number of vaccinated people are getting infected with Omicron.

 

(You might say, "yes, many of those aren't boosted." This being indicative that being fully vaccinated, and the vaccine, aren't phenomenal at protecting against infection. If your perpetual argument is that you need a booster, and then a second booster, and a third, and a fourth... every 9 months, then those boosters are needed for a reason. Being that the vaccine isn't that good to begin with. Better than nothing, but still not very good.)

 

I'll try this once more.

 

Omicron has repeatedly demonstrated a pattern of racing through populations with unvaccinated  or unboosted populations.  The infection rate shoots up rapidly than falls rapidly.  That is what is happening in Portugal.  The 10% who are not fully vaccinated and the 50% who are unboosted provide easy pickings for Omicron, but the infection rate will drop quickly once the easy pickings are exhausted.

[ThLT]

16 minutes ago, heybruce said:

You stated earlier that boosters may lose effectiveness, but you have not provided a source for this claim. 

 

"Just as important, there are no data to support the effectiveness of a fourth dose of the current vaccines. "

No, I stated that the effectiveness of vaccines wane. I thought that was common scientific knowledge—even for vaccines as a whole.

 

Here, from the UK Health Security Agency:

 

Quote

Among those who received an AstraZeneca primary course, vaccine effectiveness was around 60% 2 to 4 weeks after either a Pfizer or Moderna booster, then dropped to 35% with a Pfizer booster and 45% with a Moderna booster by 10 weeks after the booster. Among those who received a Pfizer primary course, vaccine effectiveness was around 70% after a Pfizer booster, dropping to 45% after 10-plus weeks and stayed around 70 to 75% after a Moderna booster up to 9 weeks after booster.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in EnglandTechnical briefing 33 - UK Health Security Agency

 

(Apparently, Moderna wanes less, but it's not surprising, since the normal dose is 100 mcg and 50 mcg for the booster—in comparison to only 30 mcg for the Pfizer, both the normal dose and booster. It does wane though.)

 

Notice the percentages as well? Not anywhere close to your 81%. ????

[KhunLA]

Thought about starting a new thread ...

 

"Are we just going to have to live with vaccinated people across Thailand?"

 

... nah ... will turn out to be way too redundant.

[BKKBike09]

23 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Also, the study data has been very clear -- people NEED that third booster shot in order to gain the best available protection against Omicron. Two shots alone aren't cutting it.

One could argue a more accurate statement would be "people at greater risk of serious illness if they catch Covid NEED that third booster shot in order to gain the best available protection against Omicron". 

 

As for the thread topic: "Are we just going to have to live with unvaccinated people across Thailand?" - they should be hunted down and forcibly vaccinated in front of jeering crowds (the crowds of course socially distanced and all participants double masked and triple or, even better, quadruple jabbed). 

 

[flbkk]

I guess we will have to live with them, because that’s the way it is. Personally, I believe people should be forced to take the vaccines, and forced to wear masks. The recent tourist arrivals embarrass me. It’s disappointing that with omicron, these measures don’t totally prevent you from catching the disease. But it’s all we have. I heard a new wrinkle this week. Somebody speculated that some of these anti-vaxxers actually or simply afraid of needles. We will need some assistance to hold him down. Like the mother holding a child in the pediatric clinic.

[ThLT]

52 minutes ago, flbkk said:

Personally, I believe people should be forced to take the vaccines, and forced to wear masks.

I completely agree with forcing people to wear masks. To make it temporary law, even. However, since vaccines only partially protect against transmission/infection, the forcing of people to get vaccinated is barely scientifically justified. 

 

And even if they were 100% effective at preventing transmission, that's not even taking into consideration the authoritarian, legal and ethical implications of doing so. Nor the deterioration of public trust in public health departments and the government. If forcing people to get vaccinated results in even more anti-vaccine sentiments in the population, it might be entirely counter-productive. Having even detrimental effects after the COVID pandemic, and for other diseases.

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by ThLT

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, heybruce said:

Evidently I can not provide a link to the actual CNN Wolf Blitzer-CDC Director Walensky interview on Youtube, but you can find it easily. 

 

From the very beginning they make it clear that they are only talking about breakthrough infections.  Director Walensky makes it clear that breakthrough infections are rare.  Obviously that means vaccines greatly reduce infections.

 

Walensky then explains that a person who has one of these rare breakthrough infections can infect others.  That's no surprise.  That is what she is talking about in your out of context quote.

actually, that interview took place on Aug 5, 2021 and wasn't about Omicron at all, but rather Delta.

Edited February 7, 2022 by placeholder

[placeholder]

On 2/6/2022 at 3:21 PM, ThLT said:

Thank you. Along with the 33%-48% rate of preventing infection, it's important to also notice the "Severe Disease" column for Omicron, ranging from 37% to at most 73%:

 

 

So yes, vaccines do prevent infection to a certain degree. However, not "EXTREMELY good at preventing infection," like was said—and there is definitely not only a "small number of breakthrough infections" like was also said (52% to 76% is definitely not "a small number").

 

And that's without taking into consideration the 37% to at most 73% reduction of severe illness.

 

So yes, the vaccines are extremely useful and important for the pandemic, but not "EXTREMELY" efficient. If you do the average of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna and Sinovac, for Omicron, their effectiveness on average are:

63% at preventing serious disease

38% at preventing infection

 

*And since Thailand was mostly vaccinated with Sinovac and AstraZeneca (which have lower protection levels), the above averages are even lower for Thailand.

 

So no, someone vaccinated is not "EXTREMELY" protected compared to someone who is unvaccinated. And I say this as someone who is pro-vaccine.

Vaccinated should not have societal privileges, and unvaccinated should not be barred from things like public transportation. This would be authoritarian and almost unscientific to do so.

 

Right at the top of the chart there is this:

You should note that the publication date for the IHME report is Jan 10, 2021. Studies since then show that boosters greatly increase the effectiveness of the vaccines.

[ThLT]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Right at the top of the chart there is this:

You should note that the publication date for the IHME report is Jan 10, 2021. Studies since then show that boosters greatly increase the effectiveness of the vaccines.

It doesn't say January 10, 2021. It says January 10, 2022.

 

[placeholder]

Just now, ThLT said:

It doesn't say January 10, 2021. It says January 10, 2022.

 

That is true. My error. Boosters weren't even a thing back then and vaccinations barely so. But it doesn't change the fact that there have been new studies since that IHME report was published and  that the report specifically says that as new data comes in, the reports will be updated. 

[placeholder]

On 2/6/2022 at 3:21 PM, ThLT said:

Vaccinated should not have societal privileges, and unvaccinated should not be barred from things like public transportation. This would be authoritarian and almost unscientific to do so.

 

Is that an absolute principle or does it depend on the virulence of the pathogen?

[ozimoron]

3 hours ago, ThLT said:

So? I've already acknowledged that vaccines protect against severe disease multiple times. You keep bringing that up almost every single time you reply.

 

Thanks for posting the obvious, that I agree with, yet again. And, I was talking about natural immunity from Omicron infection.

 

OMG, you can't get that into your head, can you? Every single case where someone vaccinated gets COVID, that is a breakthrough infection. BY DEFINITION. If you're unvaccinated—and the vaccine vials are in a fridge at a hospital—the vaccine can't protect you against re-infection, can it?

 

If vaccines like Sinovac are only 24% protective against infection, or for Pfizer, 44% protective against infection, it means breakthrough infections can happen in 76% of exposures with COVID for Sinovac, and 36% cases for Pfizer. Which is definitely not "rare."

 

They are "rare" for delta. It doesn't need to be restated that delta is way more dangerous than omicron.

[Bkk Brian]

17 minutes ago, ThLT said:

It doesn't say January 10, 2021. It says January 10, 2022.

 

Actually that chart is for double doses only, not boosters. 

[ThLT]

16 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

They are "rare" for delta. It doesn't need to be restated that delta is way more dangerous than omicron.

So? We're talking about transmission and re-infection. 90-95% of cases are Omicron. And it will be close to 100% within the next few months. That "Delta is way more dangerous than Omicron" is completely beside the point.

 

16 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Actually that chart is for double doses only, not boosters. 

Where does it say that? It doesn't. You personally made that up.

The chart is updated until January 10, 2022. Boosted people are very likely part of it.

[Bkk Brian]

34 minutes ago, ThLT said:

Where does it say that? It doesn't. You personally made that up.

The chart is updated until January 10, 2022. Boosted people are very likely part of it.

I personally made it up....LOL. It does not say it because it is not it........

 

Look at the chart, its a comparison with all the different variants against the effectiveness in both infection and effectiveness against severe disease.

 

If you want up to date statistics on full doses + booster against Omicron only, both BA1 and BA.2 then the latest from the UKHSA was published on the 27th Jan 

 

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic disease after Omicron BA.2 shows that VE remains unchanged - VE against death after Omicron BA.1 shows VE is 95% at 2+ weeks after booster

 

 

Full report here:

COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050721/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-4.pdf

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Bkk Brian

[heybruce]

2 hours ago, ThLT said:

No, I stated that the effectiveness of vaccines wane. I thought that was common scientific knowledge—even for vaccines as a whole.

 

Here, from the UK Health Security Agency:

 

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in EnglandTechnical briefing 33 - UK Health Security Agency

 

(Apparently, Moderna wanes less, but it's not surprising, since the normal dose is 100 mcg and 50 mcg for the booster—in comparison to only 30 mcg for the Pfizer, both the normal dose and booster. It does wane though.)

 

Notice the percentages as well? Not anywhere close to your 81%. ????

 

A short while ago you posted:

 

"Regarding COVID vaccines, which is the topic being discussed, after a certain point, getting COVID boosters could have little benefit—and even might be detrimental. You do know that, right?" 

 

Where did you get that information?   What are your sources?

 

I provided a credible current source stating that fully vaccinated with a booster is 82% effective against Omicron infections.  You have not presented any information regarding the effectiveness of vaccination with a booster.  I assume you are conceding the 82% effectiveness is correct.

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, ThLT said:

I completely agree with forcing people to wear masks. To make it temporary law, even. However, since vaccines only partially protect against transmission/infection, the forcing of people to get vaccinated is barely scientifically justified. 

 

And even if they were 100% effective at preventing transmission, that's not even taking into consideration the authoritarian, legal and ethical implications of doing so. Nor the deterioration of public trust in public health departments and the government. If forcing people to get vaccinated results in even more anti-vaccine sentiments in the population, it might be entirely counter-productive. Having even detrimental effects after the COVID pandemic, and for other diseases.

 

The goal has always been to get the R-value of the virus below 1 by getting a large portion of the population vaccinated with a vaccine that is effective enough to accomplish this.  This would cause the pandemic to end.  I'd explain further, but it gets kind of mathematical.

[ozimoron]

23 minutes ago, ThLT said:

So? We're talking about transmission and re-infection. 90-95% of cases are Omicron. And it will be close to 100% within the next few months. That "Delta is way more dangerous than Omicron" is completely beside the point.

 

Where does it say that? It doesn't. You personally made that up.

The chart is updated until January 10, 2022. Boosted people are very likely part of it.

Where do you get those figures from? This is a thread about Thailand.

 

This data indicates that omicron is much less prevalent in Thailand than delta as at the end of last year. In fact the levels of omicron are very low compared to other variants.

 

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21655979.2022.2031417

[BKKBike09]

1 hour ago, ThLT said:

I completely agree with forcing people to wear masks. To make it temporary law, even. However, since vaccines only partially protect against transmission/infection, the forcing of people to get vaccinated is barely scientifically justified. 

 

And even if they were 100% effective at preventing transmission, that's not even taking into consideration the authoritarian, legal and ethical implications of doing so.

I love the irony of saying on the one hand "force people to wear masks" (disclosure: I DETEST them) and then on the other, raising "the authoritarian, legal and ethical implications" of vaccine mandates. I know, I know ... masks aren't the same as something injected into you and all that, but it's still the same authoritarian tendency "for your own good and that of people around you". 

 

I'm sure I could find reams of stats about how effective masks are (or, conversely, about how ineffectual they are), but I for one am fed up with all this. It's obvious that, for the vast majority, Covid is not the threat it was a year ago and there are many more medical options for prevention and treatment. As for the minority - sorry, but time to suck it up and keep on boosting / masking / distancing for as long as you feel you need, but spare everyone else the misery.

 

Enough of the glass half empty, guys!

 

I'm off for a run - without a mask. 

[ThLT]

37 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I personally made it up....LOL. It does not say it because it is not it........

You said that the chart excludes boosted people. That isn't written anywhere. So yes, you entirely assumed this, based on nothing, and made that up.

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by ThLT

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, ThLT said:

You said that the chart excludes boosted people. That isn't written anywhere. So yes, you entirely assumed this, based on nothing, and made that up.

 

The chart does exclude boosters as the chart or any appended info does not state it does.

 

What yo are trying to do is assume it does, you're forgiven.

[ThLT]

15 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

 

You don't take into account Omicron, which is as much as 400% more contagious than Delta. They are working at preventing transmission, but aren't very effective at it.

However, vaccines have significantly reduced the number of serious hospitalizations and deaths, which they are highly effective for.

 

[canuckamuck]

30 minutes ago, ThLT said:

You don't take into account Omicron, which is as much as 400% more contagious than Delta. They are working at preventing transmission, but aren't very effective at it.

However, vaccines have significantly reduced the number of serious hospitalizations and deaths, which they are highly effective for.

 

No, the vaccines were around long before Omicron. 21 was worse than 20

I am not going to get into about their effectiveness. Everyone who had the vaccine and survived an infection later credits the vaccine. Its like a lucky amulet in Thailand.

Edited February 7, 2022 by canuckamuck