Thailand records highest daily COVID-19 deaths since January

[WEBBYB808]

4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

In situations where there's adequate testing occurring, COVID deaths and serious illnesses generally are a trailing indicator to cases (meaning they typically start falling after cases do), because they take longer time to develop after the initial infections.

 

But in situations like Thailand where there's basically no comprehensive or adequate testing occurring and we're in the midst of the Songkran holidays slowdown, I don't think you can't make that same kind of assumption.

 

Thus it's the Thai Ministry of Health that's been predicting that COVID case numbers could hit 50,000 per day in the aftermath of the Songkran holidays....

 

Have to wait and see how that plays out in the weeks ahead.

 

I thought they've said over 100k?

[WEBBYB808]

7 hours ago, tukadadoll said:

Why stock up, you live in Asia people only use toilet paper as napkins in restaurants?

I just said the very same thing today!  

[CygnusX1]

8 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

A quality vaccine is also something that folks who believe only those MRNA vaccines are those that work, sorry to burst your bubble but not only do those vaccines work but so do the adenovirus vaccines, sure they may not match up, but everyone's body reacts differently to a vaccine and some can not have one or the other.

Couldn’t agree more, I’ve had 2 shots of the AZ vaccine followed by one of Moderna. AZ is indeed a very high quality vaccine.

[WEBBYB808]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I am not sure that you truly understand that the case numbers are not clear and transparent and they are possibly between 5 and 10 times higher.

Many people arent aware or taking in other variables.  I remember  when Some ladies on Soi 6 caught it back Jan 01 2022.  They tested positive with the ATK.  Do you think they reported it, and stopped working?  No way.  They kept working and passing it along.  Taking Over the counter meds.  Mean while several people I knew would come into restaurants and sit right beside of me and tell me that their lady has covid.  Not really their lady but she was for an hour.  And Im in shock, thinking," inconsiderate  b@$tar?...."   "she has covid you been with her, and now you are sitting here like it's nothing?"  The next day I got sniffles.. two days ater that I test positive  atk, but I had already self isolated in my room prior, and then stayed in two weeks until I tested negative on atk then went straight  to hospital  for PCR and doctors certification.   The pcr showed I had it, but was not contagious  at that point.  Others I knew caught  it some isolated  some kept paying and playing.  But they didnt go to the hospital  or report.   So knowing this I know the numbers are not accurate.

[ThailandGuy]

24 minutes ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

It isn't high. 

 

Across the course of the illness worldwide, about 1.2-1.4% of cases result in death. Thailand is something like 0.6.%..........................
 

Cheers! 

Thank you for your detailed reply.  But let me clarify what i ment as i was comparing the Thai numbers to my country.  We had over 8 million infections and about 22.500 deaths,  In Thailand you have about 4 million cases and 26.500 deaths.  So you would have about 50.000 deaths at 8 million cases. 

My question was about that huge difference. It is double what we have. I was not comparing it to the rest of the world. Just wondering how this could be that high in comparison to my country.  Thailand people got vaccinated just like in my country. So why the difference in death cases.

Thank you

 

[gerritkaew]

all becouse off songkran. 

Just stop those who play water and go back to a lockdown. 

Good for economy ...

[Bkk Brian]

26 minutes ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

It isn't high. 

 

Across the course of the illness worldwide, about 1.2-1.4% of cases result in death. Thailand is something like 0.6.%

 

Even if you look at the current published numbers......... which really ISN'T the way it should be done(!).......... there are roughly 20,000 New Cases and 125 New Deaths. Since 1% of 20,000 is 200, that means the "New Deaths" come in at LESS THAN 1% or about........... 0.625%  !!! 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

If you look down the worldometers chart of Countries, you'll see a listing for total infections detected for each Country. If you move the decimal from the end of that number two places to the left, you'll see what a 1% benchmark would be for that country. This can then be quickly and easily compared to the Country's death totals, listed 2 columns to the right. 

 

This is an extremely quick and easy way to see how different Countries are performing compared to a 1% benchmark. 

 

Some Countries have done extremely well, showing only 0.2% death rates, or less. Some have done exceedingly poorly, showing 4-6% death rates! 

 

Thailand's reported results cannot be considered anything less than VERY GOOD....... at a rate of something like 0.6% !!! 

 

.

 

Now, I admit, there's a lot of cynicism about these numbers, not just for Thailand, but for literally every place on the planet! I don't think there's a single place on the planet the cynics would say has it right! NOT ONE! ????????????

 

The thing is, though, these same cynics can provide absolutely nothing  in the way of better answers! Oh, they might throw out WAGs (Wild-Arsed-Guesses) like "The real number is 5x or 10x that!" But, when queried, you'll find that they've got absolutely zero factual basis for such a claim! 

 

So, ultimately, when we've only got ONE set of numbers to work with, wantonly throwing those numbers aside in support of completely unsupported WAG cynicism......... I think would be extremely silly!

 

So, until we've got some OTHER numbers to work with........ numbers proven  to be more reliable than these.......... all we can do........... is go with what we've got! (And that's what I've chosen to do!) 

 

Cheers! 

Yet we don't only have one set of numbers to go with though, as with all countries Thailand submits its deaths data. Excess deaths provides a very good measure when compared to the previous 5 years average. The actual death toll from COVID-19 is higher than the number of confirmed deaths – this is due to limited testing and challenges in the attribution of the cause of death. 

 

Thailand's covid testing is very low infact its placed 148th in the world for testing per million population. It is currently averaging around 55k PCR tests daily. The result of this is not only does it miss a huge amount of positive cases but also deaths.

 

From WHO

COVID-19 deaths are a key indicator to track the evolution of the pandemic. However, many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems with the capacity to provide accurate, complete and timely data on births, deaths and causes of death. A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.

Countries also use different processes to test and report COVID-19 deaths, making comparisons difficult. To overcome these challenges, many countries have turned to excess mortality as a more accurate measure of the true impact of the pandemic.

 

Post and charts on Thailand's excess deaths have already been posted today on this thread so I wnt bother with that again. However here is a fully peer reviewed study from the Lancet with also includes their calculations for excess deaths in Thailand for 2020 - 2021. I year and that was 35,200 extra deaths over and above the reported covid deaths for that year.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext

 

If you want to see some more data on Thailand specific excess deaths that is updated regularly then you can visit 

https://djay.github.io/covidthailand/#excess-deaths the website has the official source links for the data sets. Or visit the links to ourworldindata which has already been posted in this thread a few times.

[Senior Player]

6 hours ago, sandyf said:

They can be as unsuccessful as they want. As far as covid deaths are concerned they have been around 7 times more successful than the UK.

And what about hospital treatment, over 10% of the UK population now waiting for routine operations, is that some kind of success story.

I for one am glad I have been where I was during the pandemic.

I promised myself I would never respond to amateur armchair critics, but as you decided to trumpet the fallacy that the UK has had the worst (if not one of the worst) Covid deaths in the world, I feel this needs to be addressed. Firstly, the UK is divided into 4 nations which each have a separate response to treating and controlling the virus. Secondly, it's how the deaths are recorded. Thirdly, a recent study published in the Lancet, showed Britain’s Covid death toll—as measured by excess deaths per 100,000—is far from being the worst in the world or indeed the worst in Europe. The U.K. ranks roughly in the middle of a global league table of excess death rates, coming 102nd out of 191 countries and territories. Previously, countries have been judged by Covid death rates alone, which relies on infections being accurately recorded. These would place Britain at 168—or 24th worst. Lastly, the UK population had one of the most rigorous daily Covid testing of any nation on earth, so it wouldn't at all be surprising that the country would record much higher infection rates than many others. For the record, I still haven't caught the virus here in England after 2 years and I fall into the higher risk category!! 

 

Though I DO agree that lockdowns have had a terrible domino effect on the UK as a whole, with life-threatening hospital treatments for serious medical conditions being put on hold. But that is another subject entirely, and questions the folly of locking-down a nation of healthy people rather than adopting "focused protection" of the most vulnerable instead.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Senior Player

[Petey11]

3 hours ago, ThailandGuy said:

I do not understand why Thailand has such a high deathrate on such low covid cases a day.  We did not have that much people die of covid when we had about 90.000 news cases a day.  Why does this happen in Thailand?

Because they have a very low testing rate pro-rata population and isolation laws do nothing to encourage people to test or report ATK tests but they like to test every person entering the country. TIT.

[wealthychef]

Oh god please not another lockdown in response.  Rescuing people from CoVid has become the entire mission of the human species.  

[freedomnow]

Think I must be lucky, not had covid yet...Everyone I know has had it...though I'm sure that will change soon.

[freedomnow]

3 hours ago, riparian said:

 

Whatever happened to the Covid sniffing dogs?

 

There was no money in it for the lizard elite overlords.

[aureliustheyank]

Of course. EVERYBODY is going to get Covid. Masked or unmasked.

 

Wear a mask if it makes you feel better. At the very best you're just deferring the inevitable to a later date. Meanwhile the rest of us must participate in the global hysteria. 

 

Science has dictated that squirting water on other people has been demonstrably shown to increase the likelihood of contracting Covid, which is why such activities were banned by the powers that be in Bangkok as regards Songkran. Right? No. 

 

Why else ban the water festivities? Not one shred of scientific evidence has shown that the typical water festivities of Songkran would have constituted a genuine medical threat. 

 

There's not been one shred of evidence that squirting water on people increases their likelihood of contracting Covid. Yet, that doesn't prevent sweeping and authoritative edicts from the power elite for their (anti-scientific) measures. And it's shocking to me how many sheep support this. 

 

Again, those of you who want to mask in perpetuity, that's fine by me, so long as you don't expect me to do the same. I'm done with these silly mask mandates.

 

Leave it up to the Thai, they'll be masking forever, as they were doing pre-Covid under the delusion that a cloth mask protected them from the finest pollution particles. A total delusion. So it is going to be the Westerners who say, Enough is enough, Not the Thai, who are more than happy to wear these pieces of cloths on their faces forever. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by onthedarkside
misinfo comment removed

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 hours ago, WEBBYB808 said:

I thought they've said over 100k?

 

I believe, that was not from the government per se, but from one advisor to the MoPH... And I believe, his reference wasn't to the future of official cases,, but instead in suggesting that the current actual, real numbers of infections NOW might be 100,000 per day if every one of them was caught and counted.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 hours ago, riparian said:

 

Whatever happened to the Covid sniffing dogs?

 

Good question!  Probably because a] it would take a lot of time and effort to train them, and b] there wasn't likely a ton of profit to be made from the effort, it didn't end up becoming any big deal in Thailand or elsewhere, at least AFAIK.

[Lapun]

Couldn't be bothered reading 4 pages of some agitated opinions & I may have missed it if anyone pointed it out, but on the 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

 they state quite clearly at the bottom (if you bother to scroll down that far), that for a total at 08:00am on 16-04-22 of 18,892 PCR positive test & 8,858 ATK positive tests **

** Infected with a network (ATK) : does not count towards the total number of new infections.

 

So all the Thai Covid figures (and most probably all the other countries in the world) are, as the Orange Man said - FAKE NEWS.

 

I stand to be corrected by someone with irrefutable evidence - not a biased opinion.

 

Happy Songkran.

[Stargeezr]

Some posters used to say that Omicron was only like a flu. Well this flu is still killing people

 and the pandemic is supposed to be changing to endemic?  Even my Thai family have said that a few of their friends 

have died of COVID.  The numbers are climbing and Songkran is not over with, so I wonder how the numbers will

be in a few more days?  

[ChC1]

32 minutes ago, Stargeezr said:

Some posters used to say that Omicron was only like a flu. Well this flu is still killing people

 and the pandemic is supposed to be changing to endemic?  Even my Thai family have said that a few of their friends 

have died of COVID.  The numbers are climbing and Songkran is not over with, so I wonder how the numbers will

be in a few more days?  

The thing is, once the Covid have infected a certain percentage of humans, it is no longer viable to lock down the whole population. By mathematics, once that threshold is crossed, there is no way to stop the virus going around. Because, this is an airborne virus, sort of like flu. Flu kills people too. just for your information.

 

Hence, some European country now comes to conclusion that we are beyond the point of containing the infection. The only way forward is to

1, Vaccinate people

2, Research on potential life saving treatment; and

3, HOPE for herd immunity (I am not saying we would achieve that, just saying there is still a hope).

 

So what will happen now is, people will unfortunately get infected whether vaccinated or not. However, there is always a certain percentage of population won't get infected. It is not because they are naturally immune to the virus. but rather, pure chance. It is purely mathematics. So hopefully with vaccine, self care and prevention (face mask and social distance practise based on individual choices), we can achieve the plateau of infection population ASAP. Once the certain number of infection is reached, mathematically speaking, new infection becomes very slow to grow. It is very difficult to explain in details. But the outcome is, once that number is met, pandemic is now possibly endemic. Because by that time, the death rate is decreasing and the new infection is no longer threatening in an incremental manner. 

 

To answer your question, the number will go much higher. Because Thailand is way behind the curve compares to Europe. Sadly Thailand is no way near the magic threshold to declare endemic. The numbers will look ugly in coming weeks, if not month. But that is natural and expected. 

 

The unfortunate truth is Europe generally have had 3-5 big waves of infection. Thailand is merely on its 2nd wave. There might be a drop down from 2nd wave soon. But do expect a third wave coming in the summer. Again, it is a high probability from the European data, not a certainty. However, I would be surprised if there is not a 3rd wave for Thailand in the summer and autumn going forward. 

[hotchilli]

20 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

What was it Anutin was saying about the great success Thailand was having, so recently? He was so wrong. Where is this arrogant fool's apology to the people? 

 

If they tried, they could not have found a less qualified man to attempt the position of "minister of health". And during a pandemic? Such amateur hour nonsense. 

He's more interested i  getting his marijuana monopoly off thee ground.

[Andycoops]

If they were serious about containing the spread of the virus, they would have limited inter provincial travel.

The fact they didn't is so they can turn around and say, all you silly people didn't listen to us and so we'll have to continue with the emergency decree.

It's all about suppression of freedom of speech and anti government criticism.

The Muppets in charge can't take it in any form as we've seen over the last 8 years.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Andycoops

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

He's more interested i  getting his marijuana monopoly off thee ground.

There is no question that Anutin seems very distracted and fairly indifferent to the job at hand. Perhaps this is his way of admitting failure. Just give up. 

 

Lightweights usually don't have much fight in them, after all. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by spidermike007

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

MoPH Update for Sunday, April 17:

 

Another new year-high record of 128 new COVID deaths, and also another new year-high record of 2,079 serious condition COVID hospitalizations.

 

The prior year-high records were 125 new COVID deaths yesterday, and 2,065 serious condition COVID hospitalizations set last Monday.

 

Sunday marked Thailand eighth consecutive day of 100+ new daily COVID deaths, and the fifth consecutive day of increasing death tolls. The count of serious COVID hospitalizations has risen for the past four days in a  row.

 

In addition, among the serious condition COVID cases, those in the worst condition, patients requiring intubation to breathe, also increased again to also set a new year-high record of 911, surpassing the prior record of 885 set last Tuesday.

 

Even as new deaths and serious hospitalizations mounted, the numbers of official new COVID cases (17,775) and current active cases under care (214,554) both continued declining to their lowest levels of the past week -- although those numbers are widely considered major undercounts and likely influenced by the national slowdown during the Songkran New Year's holidays.

 

For context, during the peak of the Delta wave last fall, Thailand's daily COVID case count topped out at 23,418, but the numbers of serious hospital cases and the intubated share of those peaked above 5,600 and 1,100 respectively, and daily deaths topped 300 for a brief period.

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/543511200600542

 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

PCR test positive cases, total of 17,775 official new infections. 128 official covid deaths recorded.

 

Rapid tests positive cases, 13,617 bringing the total of PCR and ATK results to 31,392

https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/

 

OWD rolling 7 day average, cases and deaths up to 15th April

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Bkk Brian

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

With the added update today from MoPH:

 

--COVID intubations at 911 have now reached 78% of their all-time peak of 1,172 that occurred during the Delta wave last August.

 

--serious COVID hospitalizations at 2,079 have now reached 37% of their all-time peak of 5,626 that occurred during the Delta wave last August.

 

--And current COVID deaths at 128 per day have now reached 41% of their all-time peak of 312 that occurred during the Delta wave last August.

 

The other thing to note is, the 2021 peaks were the culmination of months of gradually increasing tallies before they finally reached a peak and began to decline. The 2022 death and hospitalization tallies are still on their upward trend, and no clear indication when a peak will be reached.

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

5 hours ago, ChC1 said:

Hence, some European country now comes to conclusion that we are beyond the point of containing the infection. The only way forward is to

1, Vaccinate people

2, Research on potential life saving treatment; and

3, HOPE for herd immunity (I am not saying we would achieve that, just saying there is still a hope).

Regarding your point #1:

More than 60% of Thailand's population, including the most vulnerable segment of senior citizens, has NOT received a third dose COVID booster vaccine that's required to best combat the Omicron variant.

 

So, exactly how is that kind of specific vaccination rate in Thailand going to be the "way forward" for the time being?

 

Regarding your point #3:

There was a study reported here in the past week that looked at COVID exposure rates in various countries, including some where the immunity rate was up to 80 percent, and that did not lead to a major falloff in infections. Thus the authors concluded "herd immunity" isn't likely to occur with the current variant.

 

[onthedarkside]

Several misinformation posts and ensuing replies have been removed.

 

[sandyf]

11 hours ago, Senior Player said:

I promised myself I would never respond to amateur armchair critics, but as you decided to trumpet the fallacy that the UK has had the worst (if not one of the worst) Covid deaths in the world, I feel this needs to be addressed.

I never at any time implied that the UK was the worst, but it certainly ranks as one of the highest.

I always use the UK as a comparison as UK and Thailand have similar sized populations, also I am from one of the devolved nations and quite familiar with how things are done.

 

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, WEBBYB808 said:

So knowing this I know the numbers are not accurate.

Not a country in the world has accurate numbers.

You have to look elsewhere for the facts.

Are the hospitals unable to cope with the number of seriously ill patients? 

Are the crematoriums unable to cope with the number of dead bodies?

I have been going to the hospital regularly throughout the pandemic and there has never been any indication of a significant problem. When I was there last week bit like a ghost town, maybe everyone was at home with covid.

[rainham]

On 4/16/2022 at 2:28 AM, Boomer6969 said:

Well, when I look at these figures I am tempted to say that the peak of infections [of the current wave] probably was early April and that we are near the peak of deaths. 

 

Don't believe Songkram will have much impact with an infection rate that was sky high and is currently dropping.

It is pretty much the same here in the UK,

No one is really bothered about it here TBH, the last time i looked Covid cases were down by 30% it appears that it's the only way out of it, as we all know pretty much every country in the world has little success with lockdowns it's vaccination that is controlling the virus.

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Not a country in the world has accurate numbers.

You have to look elsewhere for the facts.

Are the hospitals unable to cope with the number of seriously ill patients? 

Are the crematoriums unable to cope with the number of dead bodies?

I have been going to the hospital regularly throughout the pandemic and there has never been any indication of a significant problem. When I was there last week bit like a ghost town, maybe everyone was at home with covid.

The big difference being some countries at least try to get accurate numbers and are transparent in their reporting. Thailand's testing is evidence to a clearly failed and inaccurate case number count that along with its positivity rate of over 32% and current high excess death counts. 

 

Hospitals are not full because this is spread throughout the country, unlike the Delta wave where Bangkok was hardest hit for most of the time and where hospitals certainly were full turning away patients.