Why inflation is going to be a lot more persistent than people believe

[Gecko123]

1. Climate change is going to make agricultural products more difficult to produce. Indoor green houses, trucking in water, drip irrigation, less grazing pasture, drought, extreme weather, agricultural land taken out of production because of water scarcity, etc., etc. Reduced water flow in rivers is going to increase transportation costs and reduce hydroelectric power generation. If areas of the planet become less inhabitable, this is going to put pressure on resources in more habitable areas, pushing up demand and prices.

 

2. De-globalization is going to make production of manufactured goods more expensive, and countries are more likely to engage in protectionist policies.

 

3. Entitlement program expenditures are inherently inflationary. Even if you argue that entitlement program expenditures are only paying out what people have paid into the program (which they're not), money held in those funds wasn't being spent in the economy. These savings were essentially deferred consumption. Now, as more and more people retire these funds are being consumed, fueling demand for goods and services. What's more, because most Western governments are partially borrowing to fund retirement programs, this is essentially increasing the money supply which is fueling inflation. Also, in the past, retires may not have had to actually consume all of their retirement benefits, but with inflation rising, more of these benefits have to be spent just to maintain one's standard of living.

 

People talk about the wage-price inflationary spiral, where higher prices beget higher wages which beget higher prices. But as near as I can make out, COLA adjustments on retirement benefits are doing the same thing: higher prices begetting higher COLA adjustments which in turn beget higher prices. Isn't that pretty much the same as a wage-price inflationary spiral?

 

Would be interested to hear others thoughts on this matter.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Gecko123

[Sparktrader]

10 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

Climate change is going to make agricultural

Opposite. Co2 feeds plants. Basic science.

[worgeordie]

6 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Opposite. Co2 feeds plants. Basic science.

also increases the heat, making it too hot to grow some crops ....

regards worgeordie

[treetops]

Deleted.

Edited August 20, 2022 by treetops

[Sparktrader]

4 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

also increases the heat, making it too hot to grow some crops ....

regards worgeordie

Which crops?

[worgeordie]

1 minute ago, Sparktrader said:

Which crops?

Here's an example , due to historically high heat in the UK, EU , in some areas

grass has died off, and the famers are having to use their winter stocks of feed

to feed their livestock now, that's grass a plant you may not think of as a crop

but is, 

regards worgeordie

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

Here's an example , due to historically high heat in the UK, EU , in some areas

grass has died off, and the famers are having to use their winter stocks of feed

to feed their livestock now, that's grass a plant you may not think of as a crop

but is, 

regards worgeordie

That happened 100 years ago too

 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_North_American_heat_wave

Edited August 20, 2022 by Sparktrader

[worgeordie]

12 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

That happened 100 years ago too

 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_North_American_heat_wave

And ,        you a climate change denier ? 

regards worgeordie

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, worgeordie said:

And ,        you a climate change denier ? 

regards worgeordie

Dont know what that is. Climate has always changed.

[worgeordie]

Just now, Sparktrader said:

Dont know what that is. Climate has always changed.

Yes , but lately for the worse , ? 

regards worgeordie

[gamb00ler]

39 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

3. Entitlement program expenditures are inherently inflationary. Even if you argue that entitlement program expenditures are only paying out what people have paid into the program (which they're not), money held in those funds wasn't being spent in the economy.

I don't agree with this.  In the USA employment taxes which are used to fund Social Security are collected and then invested in a special form of US Treasury bond.  It is not held out of circulation.  The government now has to borrow less from other sources.  The government expenditures re-enter the regular channels of money flow in the economy and become indistinguishable from any other spending.  Most of the mattress money that is held out of circulation comes from illegal sources or underground economies.

 

[Sparktrader]

The current official highest registered air temperature on Earth is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch, in Death Valley in the United States.^[1] F

 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest_temperature_recorded_on_Earth

[Sparktrader]

Just now, worgeordie said:

Yes , but lately for the worse , ? 

regards worgeordie

1913 had the hottest day.

[gamb00ler]

41 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Opposite. Co2 feeds plants. Basic science.

yes it does...... but all together too much CO₂ is floating around in the atmosphere prior to being used by plants.  That is the problem.

[Sparktrader]

Just now, gamb00ler said:

yes it does...... but all together too much CO₂ is floating around in the atmosphere prior to being used by plants.  That is the problem.

So why was the hottest day recorded in 1913?

[gamb00ler]

5 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Dont know what that is. Climate has always changed.

I don't think you've been alive long enough to collect enough data about the climate "always" changing.  That implies that for you to know that fact, you must have relied on scientists who have actually studied climate.  It seems you wish to accept some of that science but reject that which you find inconvenient.

[worgeordie]

2 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

1913 had the hottest day.

Aye , I remember it too bloody hot ,my ice cream was melting faster than

I could eat it, what a mess ........????

regards worgeordie

[gamb00ler]

7 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

So why was the hottest day recorded in 1913?

Who cares about the weather in 1913?

What percentage of the earth's surface experienced the hottest day in 1913?  Don't you think that is a more relevant question?

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by gamb00ler

[chalawaan]

Post deleted.

Entered to thread in error. 

Edited August 20, 2022 by chalawaan
Error

[Sparktrader]

30 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

I don't think you've been alive long enough to collect enough data about the climate "always" changing.  That implies that for you to know that fact, you must have relied on scientists who have actually studied climate.  It seems you wish to accept some of that science but reject that which you find inconvenient.

Ive read 100 reports. Being a realist and a stats man Im not worried.

[Sparktrader]

28 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

Who cares about the weather in 1913?

What percentage of the earth's surface experienced the hottest day in 1913?  Don't you think that is a more relevant question?

 

No. If things were so bad all records would be broken. Not so.

[Sparktrader]

32 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

Who cares about the weather in 1913?

What percentage of the earth's surface experienced the hottest day in 1913?  Don't you think that is a more relevant question?

 

 Worst droughts  

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/5-droughts-that-changed-human-history/

[chalawaan]

1 hour ago, worgeordie said:

Here's an example , due to historically high heat in the UK, EU , in some areas

grass has died off, and the famers are having to use their winter stocks of feed

to feed their livestock now, that's grass a plant you may not think of as a crop

but is, 

regards worgeordie

Then not enough rain plus evaporation. There goes your rice.

Alternately too much rain or rain at the wrong time in a harvest cycle, there goes your grains, potatoes, etc. 

Extreme heat and excess rain water can also effect livestock.

 

Extreme weather from Scotland to Australia has been basically occurring every six months for the last three years. 

 

And still some people have any excuse but the obvious one!

 I love Rupert Murdochs idiotic comment that a Snow blizzard couldn't be global warming, when everyone knows snow happens at relatively warm temperatures.

 

Winters are literally too warm for the planets own good. 

 

The Chinese Communists as usual loving their CO 2 emissions as they dream of a north pole year round shipping access to trade with arsehat Vlad and avoid the Suez, Hormuz, and Malacca strategic checkpoints. 

Their claims of being world leader green champions is the usual blatant BS they churn out nonstop. 

Like how they were going to turn back Pelosi. 

 

555 Do be brief, you red book waving nimmeranjies!

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by chalawaan

[Fat is a type of crazy]

Good post but I just note a few counter points:

Inflation already levelling off in United States. Rising interest rates are doing their job stifling demand. 

Government support payments are probably decreasing as unemployment is low around the world.

Covid issues that affected supply chains are reducing all the time. Most governments have stopped lockdowns or extreme measures. Now we have good vaccines it is up to the individual to take responsibility for themselves.  

The biggest driver of inflation is fuel cost which has been reducing and will reduce further if the Ukraine war can ever be finalised. Fuel of course feeds into all sorts of other costs. 

The argument that increased wages leads to a spiralling inflation is inflated itself. It has some effect but there are many factors and, as much as corporations would like to stop higher wages, fairness has to be a factor and it will only lead to minor subsequent inflation i.e. it is only one input in the cost of a good or service.

In terms of older people government payments is a concern but compulsory superannuation was introduced in many countries including Australia resulting in less eligibility for payments on retirement and more self funded retirees.

A problem for governments was payouts to retiring public servants. Government workers such as myself are still on defined benefit superannuation whereas anyone who joined after 2003 has super based on their own savings rather than a defined benefit meaning less government liability in the future. This was a huge problem in countries like Greece.

Climate change could be a big issue for particular localised areas though more broadly markets may work it out i.e. move production to new low cost areas. Depends how bad it gets though.  

Edited August 20, 2022 by Fat is a type of crazy

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, chalawaan said:

Then not enough rain plus evaporation. There goes your rice.

Alternately too much rain or rain at the wrong time in a harvest cycle, there goes your grains, potatoes, etc. 

Extreme heat and excess rain water can also effect livestock.

 

Extreme weather from Scotland to Australia has been basically occurring every six months for the last three years. 

 

And still some people have any excuse but the obvious one!

 

 

La Nina year

[Sparktrader]

https://thelatch.com.au/la-nina-weather-australia/

 

 

[proton]

47 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

yes it does...... but all together too much CO₂ is floating around in the atmosphere prior to being used by plants.  That is the problem.

CO2 is 0.04% of the atmosphere of which 97% is natural, the whole global warming by human activity claim is BS

Edited August 20, 2022 by proton

[KhunLA]

#1 ... BS

#2 ... if countries go Anti-China and start producing at home, yea, not inflation, just more expensive.   Big corps have the product produced elsewhere for reason.  That along with silly policies, B's newest, EVs must be 'made in USA' along w/batteries of, to qualify for govt incentives ... Good Luck with that one.

#3 ... non essential social programs, or 'incomes' people didn't pay into, will drain the budgets.

 

Sooner or later you run out of other people's money.  Or they tire of carrying the load, like myself, taxed @ 40%  ... so I stopped investing & left to greener pastures without all the taxes (RE/school, etc)

[Gecko123]

This isn't a debate about what is causing climate change. Irrespective of what you may or may not believe is causing it, the climate IS changing. The question is what impact this will have on inflation.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Gecko123

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

This isn't a debate about what is causing climate change. Irrespective of what you may or may not believe about is causing it, the climate IS changing. The question is what impact this will have on inflation.

Always changed. Govs control inflation.