Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

[Hawaiian]

44 minutes ago, Baron Samedi said:

China will be just fine.

Their central bank didn't even start with QE.

China won't have a banking crisis.

Growth forecast for the next 10 years stands at 5%.

Chinese middle class still growing.

Thailand should worry about its own domestic problems.

 

 

China's aging population will hinder its growth.  Five percent is overly optimistic.  

[metisdead]

An off topic post about the "like or thank" options on the posts has been removed.  The answers can be found HERE and HERE.

[Baron Samedi]

1 hour ago, Hawaiian said:

China's aging population will hinder its growth.  Five percent is overly optimistic.  

I'm talking about the next 10 years not long term. China will indeed have a serious demographic problem by 2040.

 

That being said. The Chinese tech sector is extremely well developed and this is where money is being made these days.

 

So will the Chinese economy collapse because of an ageing population. Probably not. In fact I believe China will keep growing its middle class.

 

Just look at Korea or Japan. Completely fubar demographically speaking but economically still relevant (Samsung, Softbank...).

 

On the other hand, ageing countries with zero tech excellence might face serious problems. Thailand is a good example of that.

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Baron Samedi

[HappyExpat57]

The issue of China's ghost cities is going to bite them in the a$$. When? Your guess is as good as mine, but it's gonna happen, and its effect will ripple around the world just like the housing bubble bursting in the US.

[ChaiyaTH]

Property market is the last concern, they wanna disown people anyway right. World Economic Forum: You will own nothing and be happy. More worried about their evil path towards full control, with hunger and lack of access to healthcare being the issue.

[BangkokHank]

10 hours ago, 2baht said:

Will we see a downsizing of their military and aggressive expansionism??? ????

Actually we will see exactly the opposite: They will invade Taiwan to deflect attention from their collapsing economy. 

[2baht]

46 minutes ago, BangkokHank said:

Actually we will see exactly the opposite: They will invade Taiwan to deflect attention from their collapsing economy. 

I tend to agree but they are very wary of upsetting America.

[fusion58]

12 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

All this plus, they cannot travel unless it is eseential.  I see the Chinese governemt restricitng their travel indefinitly for several reasons.  A big one being, they want to keep the money in their country and not have their people moving/buying property in other countries.

Also, their COVID vaccines are garbage and are completely ineffective against omicron variants, which means no end in sight for lockdowns, etc.

[Sparktrader]

Buy in gloom

Sell in boom

 

Media always wrong

[fusion58]

1 hour ago, BangkokHank said:

Actually we will see exactly the opposite: They will invade Taiwan to deflect attention from their collapsing economy. 

That would be the greatest military blunder in the history of warfare as such an invasion would be all but strategically impossible...

 

https://youtu.be/p6sCsOdqXQw

[Gknrd]

As a US citizen that used to live here full time,  and still visit some times. I could care less.  The Thai government made their choice a few years ago. 

I personally tell everyone that I know back home to avoid Thailand at all costs. 

I vote with my dollars.  I am not putting up with their nonsense. 

 

This is just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.

The Chinese were going strong and wanted their currency to be the world currency, Chinese were coming into Thailand by the buckets full. 

Chinese diplomats came in and sold Thailand on the idea that China would take over and wanted Thailand to push out the US and its allies.

It worked, the US and it's allies have been pulling out and so have the expats and tourists. 

 

Curious to see how Thailand comes out of this.

But, no matter how they come out of it. I refuse to spend much money to support them.. 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Gknrd

[Gknrd]

4 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

I'm talking about the next 10 years not long term. China will indeed have a serious demographic problem by 2040.

 

That being said. The Chinese tech sector is extremely well developed and this is where money is being made these days.

 

So will the Chinese economy collapse because of an ageing population. Probably not. In fact I believe China will keep growing its middle class.

 

Just look at Korea or Japan. Completely fubar demographically speaking but economically still relevant (Samsung, Softbank...).

 

On the other hand, ageing countries with zero tech excellence might face serious problems. Thailand is a good example of that.

 

We will know this time next year.  I hold some Chinese stock. It is the worst performer in my portfolio. If they can pull out of it so much the better if not???  Personally I see a serious problem , and the currency flight is staggering.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Gknrd

[Baron Samedi]

40 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

I hold some Chinese stock. It is the worst performer in my portfolio.

Many Chinese stocks are massively undervalued.

Just look at the fundamentals.

I wouldn't worry too much if I were you.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Baron Samedi

[Gknrd]

15 minutes ago, Baron Samedi said:

Many Chinese stocks are massively undervalued.

Just look at the fundamentals.

I wouldn't worry too much if I were you.

Wish I was as optimistic as you. I have seen it take a plunge unlike any other.  Mexico stock has taken off like a shot.. Amazing.. Personally I am only holding to see what the climate is like in a year or so. I think I will jump ship. To much turbulence for me. Mexico is looking so much better.. 

I will take a loss , but with the political climate best for me I think.

Best of luck.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Gknrd

[placnx]

10 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

The sharp downturn in the Chinese Property Market, and a slowing of its Industrial Output beggars the question. 

Just how much exposure to the Chinese Market do the Thai Banks, Financial Institutions, and very wealthy individuals have?

I know that the Authorities here have come out previously and stated that Thailand has very little exposure to these risks, but TIT, and the greed factor is enormous, and the very rich seem to be of Chinese decent, so there will be exposure, but how much exactly.

Money will have been seeded in China for sure, especially through the Covid and Tourist Downturn, but just how much has been able to be brought back Home ?, and how much is still locked into what were seen to be very lucrative property Markets.

IMO, the exposure could be quite significant, as it would have been an opportunity to make Money that would have been irresistible, and now maybe there will be some serious ramifications in the Thai Market Place. 

 

 

 

 

Wealthy Thai-Chinese families of recent vintage which have known significant investment in China could potentially undermine the Thai economy, depending on the extent of their borrowing from Thai banks and any downgrading of their local debt and selloff of their company shares if a worldwide recession develops into a prolonged stagnation and then deflation. We are not anywhere near that now.

 

Years ago I used to meet someone I knew from university who had moved to Hong Kong to run some investment funds. Concerning China, he said that he would invest in anything except property.

[placnx]

9 hours ago, HaoleBoy said:

This article just talks about the Chinese Property Market and its demise.  Another factor in this are the local governments that were building schools and infrastructure while properties were booming.  Now the CCP must bail out the local governments.

 

The Silk Road initiative is also a weight around the CCPs neck.  A lot of money loaned out with no chance of repayment since these foreign governments are going bust.

 

Recently read that Chinese debt is up to 289% of GDP this year.  Yes, the US debt is around 98% of GDP, but 289% is huge.

 

Thailand hitching its prospects on Chinese for anything will lead to a long road to hell.

I read a few years ago that the figure was 325%. The local governments have been saddled with taking care of Covid while the source of 30% of their finance, property sales, has been hobbled by Xi. Bailout by the central government is unlikely. So far there have been anemic gestures to puff up credit.

[placnx]

7 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

I mentioned the enormous financial strain the Silk Road initiative is having with little return to show for in a blog on Thailand's attempt to acquire  F-35 's from the U.S.  My comment was dismissed by several posters.  Unlike you, they do not understand how serious the problem is for China.

To avoid delisting of some major Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges China has recently agreed to comply with SEC auditing rules.  This comes after years of refusing to do so.   Another sign of China's financial problems.

And isn't China experimenting with a digital currency to stop the flight of capital?  

Is this the beginning of the implosion Gordon Chang has been talking about?

The delisting on US exchanges may still happen, because certain issues have not really been resolved. The FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) is sending people to Hong Kong to see whether the proposed solution will work, but meanwhile China is giving their own interpretation of what was agreed.

 

A digital currency may give the Chinese government much closer control of people, which seems to be a mania of Xi in particular. Stopping the flight of capital is just one aspect.

[Baron Samedi]

34 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Wish I was as optimistic as you.

I'm not optimistic. I'm just rational.

[placnx]

51 minutes ago, Baron Samedi said:

Many Chinese stocks are massively undervalued.

Just look at the fundamentals.

I wouldn't worry too much if I were you.

There has to be a discounted price to Chinese stocks because of the absence of the rule of law. In China it's rule BY XI's law. The stocks of the education tutoring stocks were halved overnight, for example, after a government edict.

[Gknrd]

6 minutes ago, placnx said:

The delisting on US exchanges may still happen, because certain issues have not really been resolved. The FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) is sending people to Hong Kong to see whether the proposed solution will work, but meanwhile China is giving their own interpretation of what was agreed.

 

A digital currency may give the Chinese government much closer control of people, which seems to be a mania of Xi in particular. Stopping the flight of capital is just one aspect.

I personally do not see much hope for Chinese stocks on the US stock exchange. After opening up and trying to get Chinas currency as the global currency , China had to slam on the breaks. The Chinese were buying everything they could to get the currency out of china. Even they did not want it. If they keep turning inward and stop travel. It may get ugly fast.

[Gknrd]

7 minutes ago, placnx said:

There has to be a discounted price to Chinese stocks because of the absence of the rule of law. In China it's rule BY XI's law. The stocks of the education tutoring stocks were halved overnight, for example, after a government edict.

I think the glory days of Chinese stocks are over. They had a good run, but it's over.

[Baron Samedi]

39 minutes ago, placnx said:

There has to be a discounted price to Chinese stocks because of the absence of the rule of law. In China it's rule BY XI's law. The stocks of the education tutoring stocks were halved overnight, for example, after a government edict.

You obviously have no idea how China is developing or how markets work. You should read more.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Baron Samedi

[Misty]

16 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

All this plus, they cannot travel unless it is eseential.  I see the Chinese governemt restricitng their travel indefinitly for several reasons.  A big one being, they want to keep the money in their country and not have their people moving/buying property in other countries.

In Singapore recently. Looked like plenty of Chinese money was buying up property. Locals told us wealthy Chinese are buying Sing citizenship too.

[JackGats]

Europe's economy is in for some bad time because of Ukraine. It wouldn't be bad for 
China to go through a bad spell as well. This will relieve pressure on the energy market. Plus, if everybody is in a spot, nobody is. All economies/currencies going down together. No winners, no losers.

[Hawaiian]

12 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Wish I was as optimistic as you. I have seen it take a plunge unlike any other.  Mexico stock has taken off like a shot.. Amazing.. Personally I am only holding to see what the climate is like in a year or so. I think I will jump ship. To much turbulence for me. Mexico is looking so much better.. 

I will take a loss , but with the political climate best for me I think.

Best of luck.

Even with the drug cartels and corrupt government officials,  more production in manufactured goods is happening in Mexico.  Many products are of better quality and delivery is more reliable.  All of this at the expense of the Chinese economy.  Smart money is moving out of China and into Mexico and elsewhere. 

[Hawaiian]

10 hours ago, JackGats said:

Europe's economy is in for some bad time because of Ukraine. It wouldn't be bad for 
China to go through a bad spell as well. This will relieve pressure on the energy market. Plus, if everybody is in a spot, nobody is. All economies/currencies going down together. No winners, no losers.

The U.S. dollar is still on top of all major currencies, including the euro and yen.

[Hawaiian]

12 hours ago, placnx said:

The delisting on US exchanges may still happen, because certain issues have not really been resolved. The FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) is sending people to Hong Kong to see whether the proposed solution will work, but meanwhile China is giving their own interpretation of what was agreed.

 

A digital currency may give the Chinese government much closer control of people, which seems to be a mania of Xi in particular. Stopping the flight of capital is just one aspect.

Agree about the possibility of delisting happening.  Personally, I think it is just a delaying tactic by the Chinese, buying time to implement some financial manipulation.

[Hawaiian]

11 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

You obviously have no idea how China is developing or how markets work. You should read more.

One thing for sure is that the majority of Chinese investors are not.  They are gamblers and sheep.  I have never owned Chinese stock and never will.  I am not a gambler.

[Photoguy21]

I have heard this before from a different source. Probably true as China likes the world to think everything is wonderful for them when in reality they are on the edge of a precipice ready fall over it.

[spidermike007]

20 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

China will be just fine.

Their central bank didn't even start with QE.

China won't have a banking crisis.

Growth forecast for the next 10 years stands at 5%.

Chinese middle class still growing.

Thailand should worry about its own domestic problems.

 

 

There is growing discontent in China. The extreme cowardice they applied toward their zero covid fantasy likely did not help.