Property market collapse in China and a Chinese economic recession is the key threat to Thailand

[Walker88]

Evergrande is just the beginning. China's boom was funded by debt, despite their 'trillions of dollars in reserves'. You can fund via debt when you have pricing power or markets everybody wants in on, but when you are the world's low cost producer---and you have excess productive capacity that makes Lizzo's body look like she grew up in Biafra---debt is an albatross. Property is a rocket ship to the moon, until it's the Titanic (yes, mixed metaphor). Debt on debt, collateralized by already indebted properties---kind of like what Michael Saylor did with his crypto cache, or Three Point Capital---eventually blows up. It did in the US in 2008, but China is worse and doesn't have systems in place to address it, other than an iron hand of the self-appointed govt.

 

Here's one example: China added more steel productive capacity since 2011 than existed on Earth before that. The problem is there's precious few more China's to build, so who is the market for all that steel?

 

Then there's SOE, State Owned Enterprises....virtually all lose money (except TikTok). China built warehouses to store the produce of SOE's who cannot sell what they make. How long is/was that sustainable? China also tries to knock down legitimately successful people, like Jack Ma.

 

Around the world China started its BRI, Belt and Road Initiative. It took much of their reserves, and it isn't turning a profit and never will. It garners resources, sure, but to use in products that end up stored useless in warehouses. Also, BRI smells of economic imperialism and Neo Colonialism, and even if that isn't true, citizens of a country reached by the BRI will see it that way, and they also see their leaders took all kinds of tributes from the Chinese so as to allow China to rape their country and take its resources.

 

The Covid lockdowns have only two conceivable purposes, one perhaps conspiracy-driven, the other more likely. The first is that maybe China knows something about Covid nobody else knows. More likely is that China is testing its ability to control a populace that is likely to get more angry when the Mercedes in a picture on the wall of a house is never going to be a Mercedes in the garage of one's condo. Dashed expectations when hope was fomented are worse than hits to people who never had any hope.

[Baron Samedi]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There is growing discontent in China.

There is a growing discontent everywhere.

It has nothing to do with China, the CCP or Xi.

There is a new world order emerging.

This process is and will continue to be messy imo.

[Baron Samedi]

2 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

One thing for sure is that the majority of Chinese investors are not.

Not even true. Chinese A shares (mainland) performed better than HKSE/NYSE chinese shares did. Plus everything depends on when you bought.

Morons tend to buy stocks that have risen and they usually regret it.

Smart people tend to buy the dip and make money.

 

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, Baron Samedi said:

Not even true. Chinese A shares (mainland) performed better than HKSE/NYSE chinese shares did. Plus everything depends on when you bought.

Morons tend to buy stocks that have risen and they usually regret it.

Smart people tend to buy the dip and make money.

 

"Fools rush in where wise men never go"...............

[Gweiloman]

It is highly entertaining to read how many here are predicting doom and gloom for the world’s next superpower.

 

The development of China is something never seen before in the world. The BRI will bring incredible benefits to participating nations. Yes, of course there are setbacks; this is normal for any large scale projects and this is the largest global project the world has ever seen.  
 

Fact of the matter is that China will single-handedly pull all its Asean neighbours out of 3rd world to 1st world status and challenge the hegemony of the west. In time to come, the Global South and BRICs will decouple from the USD as the world’s reserve currency. The writing is on the wall. The wests’ decline has begun and the sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries has just released the brakes entirely.

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

It is highly entertaining to read how many here are predicting doom and gloom for the world’s next superpower.

 

The development of China is something never seen before in the world. The BRI will bring incredible benefits to participating nations. Yes, of course there are setbacks; this is normal for any large scale projects and this is the largest global project the world has ever seen.  
 

Fact of the matter is that China will single-handedly pull all its Asean neighbours out of 3rd world to 1st world status and challenge the hegemony of the west. In time to come, the Global South and BRICs will decouple from the USD as the world’s reserve currency. The writing is on the wall. The wests’ decline has begun and the sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries has just released the brakes entirely.

Dream on.

[Baron Samedi]

1 hour ago, Hawaiian said:

"Fools rush in where wise men never go"...............

Exactly. Don't buy overvalued stocks.

[Hawaiian]

2 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

Not even true. Chinese A shares (mainland) performed better than HKSE/NYSE chinese shares did. Plus everything depends on when you bought.

Morons tend to buy stocks that have risen and they usually regret it.

Smart people tend to buy the dip and make money.

 

So you are telling us what every successful investor knows.  Knowing when to buy and when to sell is the tricky part that separates the winners from the losers.  But I guess you have that all figured out. 

[Baron Samedi]

1 minute ago, Hawaiian said:

So you are telling us what every successful investor knows.  Knowing when to buy and when to sell is the tricky part that separates the winners from the losers.  But I guess you have that all figured out. 

Of course. It's called building a position.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

It is highly entertaining to read how many here are predicting doom and gloom for the world’s next superpower.

 

The development of China is something never seen before in the world. The BRI will bring incredible benefits to participating nations. Yes, of course there are setbacks; this is normal for any large scale projects and this is the largest global project the world has ever seen.  
 

Fact of the matter is that China will single-handedly pull all its Asean neighbours out of 3rd world to 1st world status and challenge the hegemony of the west. In time to come, the Global South and BRICs will decouple from the USD as the world’s reserve currency. The writing is on the wall. The wests’ decline has begun and the sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries has just released the brakes entirely.

Next superpower...that's only if they succeed in taking Taiwan and then start WW III, Which will destroy all the advanced semiconductor chips and all hope of what you suggest.

 

Laughable your post is.

Edited September 10, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[VinnieK]

..and a decrepit Yurp flirting with a depression..

 

[Walker88]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

It is highly entertaining to read how many here are predicting doom and gloom for the world’s next superpower.

 

The development of China is something never seen before in the world. The BRI will bring incredible benefits to participating nations. Yes, of course there are setbacks; this is normal for any large scale projects and this is the largest global project the world has ever seen.  
 

Fact of the matter is that China will single-handedly pull all its Asean neighbours out of 3rd world to 1st world status and challenge the hegemony of the west. In time to come, the Global South and BRICs will decouple from the USD as the world’s reserve currency. The writing is on the wall. The wests’ decline has begun and the sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries has just released the brakes entirely.

I'm going to take the other side of that bet.

 

China has spent much of the last few centuries finding new and unique ways of shooting itself in the foot. It was a major power a few millennia ago, but then was largely irrelevant when the real heavy lifting that produced the modern industrialized world was being done, Over the last 500 years it was the West that produced Newton, Faraday, Maxwell, Einstein, Bell, Marconi, Poincaire, Planck, Feynman, Kilby, etc., even Jobs and Wozniak. It's a lot easier and definitely not any sort of miracle to build a country buying technology off the shelf, or stealing it as China has done.

 

One consistency across time and across all of humanity is that the fruits of success often contain the seeds of failure. China's debt burden is not sustainable, nor is its massive population likely to continue to fall in line as the expectations they built up are continually dashed, and the self-appointed, answerable to no one CCP can even make tens of millions stay locked in their homes.

 

Humans have a few things that burst out from time to time. One is a desire to be free, The US was the nation that first introduced the new concept that all are equal, and set that as a goal. That led to the decline of monarchies and other privilege-by-birth, and even in autocracies---which are merely monarchies in another guise---the masses eventually rise up. Another thing humans evidence is a desire to control their own destiny, not have some external force impose a destiny upon them. That trait brought the eventual end of Colonialism and Imperialism that existed from the time of Genghis Khan until the collapse of the British Empire. China's BRI devastates environments and imposes that burden on people who did not ask them to come in. In Myanmar, under SPDC and now under the new junta, China raped Myanmar of its natural resources, engaging in slash and burn timber harvesting, damming rivers and exporting 100% of the generated power, polluting the environment with things like cyanide recovery methods for precious metals, or strip mining for industrial metals. China even 'steals women' (led by the PLA) so that China's own demographic problem (30 million more marrying age males than females) can be addressed. Just as SPDC was falling, Myanmar---specifically Kachin people---began fighting back against China by killing Chinese engineers and workers.

 

China's success is quite recent, perhaps no more than 30 years old. Some are projecting that into an endless future, while others maintain that whatever the traits of that nation are that left it out of the post-Renaissance progress will rear their ugly head again.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Walker88

[Gweiloman]

47 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Dream on.

There’s none so blind as those who will not see.

[Kopitiam]

On 9/9/2022 at 6:38 AM, ezzra said:

Maybe communism has run it's course and time to re-think different way of governing, show me a one communist country in the world that is doing well and i'll show you people live in fear or running foul with the secrete police, even Russia is not doing well under the leadership of that tyrant Putin, stories of  stolen armed forces items, from a battle gear to heavy vehicles are being sold in an open markets and online...

I beg to differ.  Name me one G7 country that is doing well in this period of time.

[Gweiloman]

37 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Next superpower...that's only if they succeed in taking Taiwan and then start WW III, Which will destroy all the advanced semiconductor chips and all hope of what you suggest.

 

Laughable your post is.

Matter of time before TSMC comes under the control of China. Why else is America panicking.

 

He who laughs last laughs best.

[Gweiloman]

18 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I'm going to take the other side of that bet.

 

China has spent much of the last few centuries finding new and unique ways of shooting itself in the foot. It was a major power a few millennia ago, but then was largely irrelevant when the real heavy lifting that produced the modern industrialized world was being done, Over the last 500 years it was the West that produced Newton, Faraday, Maxwell, Einstein, Bell, Marconi, Poincaire, Planck, Feynman, Kilby, etc., even Jobs and Wozniak. It's a lot easier and definitely not any sort of miracle to build a country buying technology off the shelf, or stealing it as China has done.

 

One consistency across time and across all of humanity is that the fruits of success often contain the seeds of failure. China's debt burden is not sustainable, nor is its massive population likely to continue to fall in line as the expectations they built up are continually dashed, and the self-appointed, answerable to no one CCP can even make tens of millions stay locked in their homes.

 

Humans have a few things that burst out from time to time. One is a desire to be free, The US was the nation that first introduced the new concept that all are equal, and set that as a goal. That led to the decline of monarchies and other privilege-by-birth, and even in autocracies---which are merely monarchies in another guise---the masses eventually rise up. Another thing humans evidence is a desire to control their own destiny, not have some external force impose a destiny upon them. That trait brought the eventual end of Colonialism and Imperialism that existed from the time of Genghis Khan until the collapse of the British Empire. China's BRI devastates environments and imposes that burden on people who did not ask them to come in. In Myanmar, under SPDC and now under the new junta, China raped Myanmar of its natural resources, engaging in slash and burn timber harvesting, damming rivers and exporting 100% of the generated power, polluting the environment with things like cyanide recovery methods for precious metals, or strip mining for industrial metals. China even 'steals women' (led by the PLA) so that China's own demographic problem (30 million more marrying age males than females) can be addressed. Just as SPDC was falling, Myanmar---specifically Kachin people---began fighting back against China by killing Chinese engineers and workers.

 

China's success is quite recent, perhaps no more than 30 years old. Some are projecting that into an endless future, while others maintain that whatever the traits of that nation are that left it out of the post-Renaissance progress will rear their ugly head again.

Very long post. 
 

Plenty of freedom in China if you care to look for it. Women in America can’t  even decide to abort if they are going to give birth to their sibling after being impregnated by their father.

 

As to China raping Myanmar, western countries have raped the world for centuries and continue to do so.

[Gweiloman]

Plenty of world renowned experts talk about the rise of China. But of course, the “real” experts on Aseannow know better ????.

[Hawaiian]

6 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Plenty of world renowned experts talk about the rise of China. But of course, the “real” experts on Aseannow know better ????.

Even the world renowned China experts disagree on China's future. 

[Hawaiian]

17 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Matter of time before TSMC comes under the control of China. Why else is America panicking.

 

He who laughs last laughs best.

Knowing the Taiwanese, they will booby trap and destroyed TSMC facilities before handing them over to  CCP forces.

[spidermike007]

While this is likely true, the thing which is a bigger threat to Thailand is Prawit, Prayuth and their party remaining in power. They are highly destructive forces and are leading the nation backwards and into oblivion. 

 

Dinosaurs, be gone! 

[newnative]

27 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Very long post. 
 

Plenty of freedom in China if you care to look for it. Women in America can’t  even decide to abort if they are going to give birth to their sibling after being impregnated by their father.

 

As to China raping Myanmar, western countries have raped the world for centuries and continue to do so.

     Your abortion statement is incorrect.  The Supreme Court left it up to the individual states to decide how to handle abortion; Kansas voters recently voted to retain abortion rights.  Abortion is still legal in the majority of the states; it is likely to become illegal in 16 states, which would mean a woman in one of those states would have to travel out of state to get an abortion.

[Misty]

55 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Plenty of freedom in China if you care to look for it.

 

Please tell that to the Uighers, those under covid lock-down, women who until very recently wanted to have a second child. Or read the following article on how the Chinese government is spying on all of its citizens.

 

Sorry, Gwiloman, you're fooling no one. Hope they aren't paying you much to post this stuff.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/technology/china-surveillance.html

A Surveillance Net Blankets China’s Cities, Giving Police Vast Powers

The authorities can scan your phones, track your face and find out when you leave your home. One of the world’s biggest spying networks is aimed at regular people, and nobody can stop it.

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Next superpower...that's only if they succeed in taking Taiwan and then start WW III, Which will destroy all the advanced semiconductor chips and all hope of what you suggest.

 

Laughable your post is.

Interesting why you think WW III will start. That will only happen if America decides to engage, being the warmonger that they are. Asia is not their backyard. China won’t care if America invades Cuba.

 

I wonder how the real Hawaiians feel about America occupying their country. Going back further, the native indigenous Indians of America, thousands of their women were raped too @walker88. Also thousands of black slaves who were kidnapped and traded like animals.

[Gweiloman]

12 minutes ago, Misty said:

Please tell that to the Uighers, those under covid lock-down, women who until very recently wanted to have a second child. Or read the following article on how the Chinese government is spying on all of its citizens.

 

Sorry, Gwiloman, you're fooling no one. Hope they aren't paying you much to post this stuff.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/technology/china-surveillance.html

A Surveillance Net Blankets China’s Cities, Giving Police Vast Powers

The authorities can scan your phones, track your face and find out when you leave your home. One of the world’s biggest spying networks is aimed at regular people, and nobody can stop it.

Nytimes, western media. Fake news, according to one DJT.

[Gweiloman]

26 minutes ago, newnative said:

     Your abortion statement is incorrect.  The Supreme Court left it up to the individual states to decide how to handle abortion; Kansas voters recently voted to retain abortion rights.  Abortion is still legal in the majority of the states; it is likely to become illegal in 16 states, which would mean a woman in one of those states would have to travel out of state to get an abortion.

Fine. Some women then. Still, not exactly freedom and equality is it?

[Kopitiam]

36 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Knowing the Taiwanese, they will booby trap and destroyed TSMC facilities before handing them over to  CCP forces.

China is doing the world a favour for not taking Taiwan now.  Wait until America has built up their own semiconductor plants, will they still give a damn about Taiwan?

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, Misty said:

Please tell that to the Uighers, those under covid lock-down, women who until very recently wanted to have a second child. Or read the following article on how the Chinese government is spying on all of its citizens.

 

Sorry, Gwiloman, you're fooling no one. Hope they aren't paying you much to post this stuff.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/technology/china-surveillance.html

A Surveillance Net Blankets China’s Cities, Giving Police Vast Powers

The authorities can scan your phones, track your face and find out when you leave your home. One of the world’s biggest spying networks is aimed at regular people, and nobody can stop it.

Thank you.  We also saw what they did to Hong Kong and anyone who spoke out against the CCP.  Going back to Tiananmen square and now with how they are trying to obtain Taiwan shows just how the One China policy treats folks who wish to speak out against the government.

[Gweiloman]

7 minutes ago, Kopitiam said:

China is doing the world a favour for not taking Taiwan now.  Wait until America has built up their own semiconductor plants, will they still give a damn about Taiwan?

I think we all know the answer to that ????.

 

If America is so concerned, they should just offer citizenship to all Taiwanese. But of course they won’t. White supremacy and all that.

[Gweiloman]

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Thank you.  We also saw what they did to Hong Kong and anyone who spoke out against the CCP.  Going back to Tiananmen square and now with how they are trying to obtain Taiwan shows just how the One China policy treats folks who wish to speak out against the government.

Pelosi said the riots in HKG were a beautiful thing to see. Did she say the same about Jan 6? Double standards, as the world has come to expect of the (Dis)United States.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Interesting why you think WW III will start. That will only happen if America decides to engage, being the warmonger that they are. Asia is not their backyard. China won’t care if America invades Cuba.

 

I wonder how the real Hawaiians feel about America occupying their country. Going back further, the native indigenous Indians of America, thousands of their women were raped too @walker88. Also thousands of black slaves who were kidnapped and traded like animals.

Taiwan is a free and autonomous country, and is also known as the ROC.  You are aware that the war between the ROC and the PRC never has officially ended.  The ROC relinquished mainland china but still holds Taiwan and many other strategic islands.  Have you done your research to understand why Taiwan is such an important cog in China's master plan, and why the west, and not just the US will not let that happen. This OP is about the property market collapse threatening Thailand based upon an economic recession, and any attempt at taking Taiwan would create a global issue of immense proportions.  This OP is not about the indigenous Hawaiians or the Indians of America. The US was not the only country to have slaves, and the indians mistreatment started way before the US was born...try again.