Thailand losing its ASEAN FDI crown as investors opt for ‘more’ attractive Vietnam and Indonesia

[webfact]

 

By Thanaphum Charoensombatpanich

The rising labour cost, the ageing population, the political uncertainties, along with growing competition for foreign direct investments has left Thailand licking it wounds in the race for attracting investors to invest in Thailand.

 

Thailand, one of the few countries that had been the king of attracting FDI into the country over the past few decades, has started to lose its crown of being the top FDI recipient to the likes of the newcomer – Vietnam.

 

“Thailand’s FDI applications have fallen this year, bucking the regional trend as other ASEAN countries saw foreign interest returning with the economic reopening. FDI application plunged to US$3.8 billion in the first half of 2022, less than half of the $8.8 billion recorded in the first half of 2021,” Lee Ju Ye, analyst at Maybank in Singapore said.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/44961/thailand-losing-its-asean-fdi-crown-as-investors-opt-for-more-attractive-vietnam-and-indonesia/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-10-06

 

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[ThailandRyan]

Thailand is licking it's wounds because it created so many obstacles for companies to stay, like increasing taxes, making it hard for the companies to employ workers.

 

From the article, and this is where many companies who left Thailand have gone .

 

"Thailand was once the top exporter of manufactures in ASEAN, but today Thailand has been replaced by Vietnam since 2017"

 

Yet here is the true issue:

 

"Thailand’s working-age population was the earliest to peak in ASEAN in 2017. Total population is expected to peak in 2029.  This has prompted a shortage of labour in the manufacturing and service sectors. Thailand faces a shortage of around 500,000 foreign workers in manufacturing and services sectors, after more than 300,000 workers left during the pandemic. Only about 20,000 foreign workers have returned this year under bilateral contracts between Thailand and some ASEAN countries."

Edited October 6, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[Cake Monster]

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Thailand is licking it's wounds because it created so many obstacles for companies to stay, like increasing taxes, making it hard for the companies to employ workers.

 

From the article, and this is where many companies who left Thailand have gone .

 

"Thailand was once the top exporter of manufactures in ASEAN, but today Thailand has been replaced by Vietnam since 2017"

 

Yet here is the true issue:

 

"Thailand’s working-age population was the earliest to peak in ASEAN in 2017. Total population is expected to peak in 2029.  This has prompted a shortage of labour in the manufacturing and service sectors. Thailand faces a shortage of around 500,000 foreign workers in manufacturing and services sectors, after more than 300,000 workers left during the pandemic. Only about 20,000 foreign workers have returned this year under bilateral contracts between Thailand and some ASEAN countries."

If only 20,000 Foreign workers have returned this year, they must all be in Pattaya.

They seem to be everywhere, in all kinds of work, from Building to Shops Etc.

IMO, the real issue for Thailand,s lack of FDI, is the ever increasing costs of Manufacture, and lowering output per Head, along with slow uptake on high skilled employment and Jobs.

Vietnam, has a more Work centric population, with a much higher standard of Education for Investors to tap.

Thailand,s main Industry is still Agriculture, and from Farmers there is little hope of producing highly skilled workers unless a very high standard of Education is provided to all, which is not based upon a monetary system for Education.

Many Companies have for some time now been relocating or moving Production out of Thailand due to the lack of Educated and Skilled workers. Toyota and Panasonic , are just 2 Companies that I am aware of.

Toyota establishing a new assembly Plant in Cambodia and Panasonic moving all Battery production to Vietnam.

Thailand just seems to want a Service Sector Society, but are not either capable or prepared in laying out the Groundwork for this.

 

 

[Iamfalang]

Didn't they see that recent report from Conde something or something that said Thailand was Number 1.

 

TAT and TIT and all those acronyms....  we need more polls...

 

Thailand ranked Number 1 as most attractive place.  Vietnam Number 2393232 and Indonesia number 932748932749328423

 

OK, done

 

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

Didn't they see that recent report from Conde something or something that said Thailand was Number 1.

 

TAT and TIT and all those acronyms....  we need more polls...

 

Thailand ranked Number 1 as most attractive place.  Vietnam Number 2393232 and Indonesia number 932748932749328423

 

OK, done

 

Spot on. You nailed it Thailand has 1 attractive place while Vietnam has 2393232 and Indonesia has 932748932749328423......

[BayArea]

2 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

If only 20,000 Foreign workers have returned this year, they must all be in Pattaya.

They seem to be everywhere, in all kinds of work, from Building to Shops Etc.

IMO, the real issue for Thailand,s lack of FDI, is the ever increasing costs of Manufacture, and lowering output per Head, along with slow uptake on high skilled employment and Jobs.

Vietnam, has a more Work centric population, with a much higher standard of Education for Investors to tap.

Thailand,s main Industry is still Agriculture, and from Farmers there is little hope of producing highly skilled workers unless a very high standard of Education is provided to all, which is not based upon a monetary system for Education.

Many Companies have for some time now been relocating or moving Production out of Thailand due to the lack of Educated and Skilled workers. Toyota and Panasonic , are just 2 Companies that I am aware of.

Toyota establishing a new assembly Plant in Cambodia and Panasonic moving all Battery production to Vietnam.

Thailand just seems to want a Service Sector Society, but are not either capable or prepared in laying out the Groundwork for this.

 

 

"Vietnam, has a more Work centric population, with a much higher standard of Education for Investors to tap."

 

Hammer meets nail!

[ThailandRyan]

33 minutes ago, BayArea said:

"Vietnam, has a more Work centric population, with a much higher standard of Education for Investors to tap."

 

Hammer meets nail!

Willing to work and not doing a job only a "Thai" can do.....that one says it all in my book.  My GF can no longer cut hair here as it is a job only a Thai can do......so much for owning and working in your own salon.  She gave it away basically, and now just teaches hair cutting, styling and coloring.....things this country does to shoot itself in the foot.

[poskat]

I blame foreign influences for this downturn

[ozfarang]

Another article about how successful Vietnam has been in recent times attracting foreign investment and an economy growing at double the pace of Thailand.

While wages are low Vietnam will continue to attract more foreign investment to the detriment of Thailand and its backward looking 'government'.

 

China the big loser here.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/10/6/vietnam-eyes-chinas-tech-crown-as-firms-flee-zero-covid

[AnotherFarang8]

The trend is set for the tourism sector of Thailand to grow relative to its other industries, as a percentage of GDP. Growing tourism in absolute numbers, on the other hand, will require work but in my view Thailand is better positioned to achieve this than Vietnam.

[Chongalulu]

2 hours ago, ozfarang said:

Another article about how successful Vietnam has been in recent times attracting foreign investment and an economy growing at double the pace of Thailand.

While wages are low Vietnam will continue to attract more foreign investment to the detriment of Thailand and its backward looking 'government'.

 

China the big loser here.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/10/6/vietnam-eyes-chinas-tech-crown-as-firms-flee-zero-covid

Generals are not the most forward thinking,or even remotely capable when understanding even the basics of economics. This could have been the golden opportunity for Thailand had it properly educated its workforce,reformed its business practices and had some semblance of a strategy to incentivise foreign investment. The switch away from China is going to be huge and Vietnam won’t have enough capacity to cope with even a fraction of that. What a wasted opportunity.

[Gknrd]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

 

"Thailand’s working-age population was the earliest to peak in ASEAN in 2017. Total population is expected to peak in 2029.  This has prompted a shortage of labour in the manufacturing and service sectors. Thailand faces a shortage of around 500,000 foreign workers in manufacturing and services sectors, after more than 300,000 workers left during the pandemic. Only about 20,000 foreign workers have returned this year under bilateral contracts between Thailand and some ASEAN countries."

This pails to the demographics of China.. China's wages have increased 5-6 fold and their out put has increased 2 fold. Company's are fleeing faster than the Yuan.

They are the fastest aging population in history.....

If you want to believe the geopolitical scientists China will not last the decade.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Gknrd

[nigelforbes]

8 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

Generals are not the most forward thinking,or even remotely capable when understanding even the basics of economics. This could have been the golden opportunity for Thailand had it properly educated its workforce,reformed its business practices and had some semblance of a strategy to incentivise foreign investment. The switch away from China is going to be huge and Vietnam won’t have enough capacity to cope with even a fraction of that. What a wasted opportunity.

You do understand that Vietnam's GDP is half that of Thailand's and that the country has no infrastructure per se? Most importantly, China wont do business there because of the friction that continues to exist between the two countries. This so called loss is not really a loss at all.

[Chongalulu]

43 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

You do understand that Vietnam's GDP is half that of Thailand's and that the country has no infrastructure per se? Most importantly, China wont do business there because of the friction that continues to exist between the two countries. This so called loss is not really a loss at all.

You really haven’t understood at all. This is about western companies switching production away from China and looking to manufacture elsewhere. Read the article appended to the post i responded to.

[Caldera]

Interesting, but hardly surprising. 

[Isaan sailor]

I believe currency fluctuations are much greater in Thailand.  Corporations don't want to worry about future exchange rates.  Vietnam's currency seems more stable.

[Sir Dude]

Foreign investment is made on sentiment/confidence, something the Thai authorities seems to have done their level best to erode in the last 10 years. People, especially business folks, are not stupid and can see it. There is also the issue of an over-valued baht manipulated to benefit the elite on their foreign buying sprees et al. 

If I was a medium to large investor, then there are much more attractive destinations for the money, plus there are so many hoops to jump through here in Thailand to get almost anything done. On top of that, the rule of law is shaky too if it doesn't suit the government... go ask Carlsberg/Pepsi/Kingsgate Mining etc. On top of that, the Thai authorities have done their level best to get rid of as many foreigners as possible over the last 5 years too... both retirees and working expats, like teachers etc.

Thailand needs to realise it has to compete on many levels now, as the good old days are long gone.

[realfunster]

I do worry that Thailand is actually slowing drifting towards becoming an economic basket case.

 

For the last 30 years, the main drivers of growth have been FDI and tourism. The FDI, owing to restrictions in the Foreign Business Act, is typically limited in certain sectors. During this time, to my knowledge, no major Thai companies have sprung up in these industries. 

 

The only area where Thai companies have done well is quasi-state monopolies or sectors where FDI has largely been excluded.

Think financials, telecoms, resources, real estate and retail sectors. All of these piggy backing off the wider GDP growth generated by FDI.

No major competition or innovation required, just milking a captive market with limited choices. 

 

It's hard to see what stimulus and opportunities there are for sustained future growth in Thailand, unless they liberalise the service sectors but that would be stepping on some pretty big toes.  

 

[Gottfrid]

Hmmmm.... Didn´t we say that would happen, like 5 years ago

 

[brianthainess]

Will the Thai Government now sue the ThaiEnquirer for defamation and giving Thailand a bad name.?  ????

[Gknrd]

Mexico is the big winner here. Smart companies have been in the process for the last few years getting out of SE Asia.  For the US,  Mexico is the perfect fit. America has the food, the oil, Mexico has the labor and is a fairly educated country.  I have read a few articles saying it is cheaper now to manufacture many things in the US now.  Some say 5-10 years and the process will be in the end stages. Shorter supply lines, less volatility, way less hassles dealing with SE Asia.  

As far as China goes, I have not read anything remotely positive about it's future.  

Interesting to see what happens in the next few years.

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Gknrd

[Northstar1]

Vietnam is becoming the Silicon Valley of Asia. It has a much younger better educated population that isn’t afraid of work.

I can actually carry on an educated conversation with a young Vietnamese person!

not just 

where u from?

how long you come Thailand?

u buy me drink?

Many big tech companies are moving there to capitalize on the highly educated young population 

[Gknrd]

I have zero sympathy for Thailand or China. They had the perfect opportunity , and instead of exploiting it , <deleted> it away.. 

Good for me, I can visit on the cheap for the next few years as they decline.